| when | module | market | bet | 0 · price · 1 | result | why |
|---|
| 09-08 03:32 | codex-open | Who will get an In Person Hack Club Summer Internship in 2027? | NO 100 | | open -3 | luna-medium price-blind says 0.06 vs answer 0.48 (edge -0.42 >= 0.3): Base rate is about 0.05% (30 interns among roughly 60,000 Hack Clubbers in 2024), though kc’s official Remixed contribution raises this to roughly 6%; the rules require both offer acceptance and HQ arrival, no relevant 2027 selection/start event is scheduled publicly, and the exact resolver is Hack Club’s official HQ announcement or team roster, with no matching witness market found. |
| 09-08 03:31 | codex-open | Who will get an In Person Hack Club Summer Internship in 2027? | NO 0 | | cancelled | luna-medium price-blind says 0.10 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.40 >= 0.3): Base rate is roughly 7.5% (30 interns versus about 400 candidates in the comparable Hack Club pipeline); Jenin’s active program-maintainer role modestly raises this, but eligibility, selection, offer acceptance, and HQ arrival are all unresolved, no 2027 event is scheduled yet, and the resolver is Hack Club’s official internship records/announcement rather than related-market prices. |
| 09-08 03:20 | codex-open | Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2028 US Senate election in Uta | YES 42 | | open +16 | luna-medium price-blind says 0.84 vs market 0.50 (edge +0.34 >= 0.2): Base rate is 3/3 recent Class 3 Utah Senate elections won by Republicans (100%); the rules omit a resolver, so I use the official Utah lieutenant governor’s certified results and modestly discount for ambiguity, while the Nov. 7, 2028 general election is the key scheduled event and matching Kalshi odds are 86% under nearly identical party-based rules ([Utah results](https://vote.utah.gov/historical-election-results/), [Senate history](https://www.senate.gov/states/UT/senators.htm), [Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/senateut/senate-race-utah/senateut-28)). |
| 09-08 02:35 | down-fade | Will YES have more holders than NO? | YES 18 | | settled +22 | down-fade: single 647-mana NO bet pushed 0.80->0.43; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-08 01:50 | codex-open | Will Tesla give paid public Cybercab rides in a US metro outside Texas by | YES 0 | | unfilled | luna-medium price-blind says 0.56 vs market 0.30 (edge +0.26 >= 0.2): Base rate: Tesla expanded its existing Model Y robotaxi service into three Florida metros in July 2026, but exact Cybercab expansion has a 0% prior rate (n=1 launch); rules are clear and permissive on small or invite-only paid service, while the slow production ramp and open [NHTSA AQ26002](https://www.nhtsa.gov/press-releases/investigation-tesla-cybercab-self-certification) offset Tesla’s stated expansion plans ([Tesla IR](https://ir.tesla.com/_flysystem/s3/sec/000162828026026551/tsla-20260422-gen.pdf)); the relevant calendar checkpoints are Tesla’s Q3 2026, Q4 2026, and Q1 2027 disclosures, with no named expansion date; resolution should come from Tesla’s Robotaxi app or official communications plus two established news outlets, and no matching witness market was found. |
| 09-08 01:16 | codex-open | 9984 reaches 7000 by Sep 10? | NO 38 | | settled +15 | luna-medium price-blind says 0.14 vs market 0.34 (edge -0.20 >= 0.2): From 6,217, 9984 needs +12.6%; recent daily moves exceeded 10% twice in five sessions, but no scheduled IR catalyst appears before Sep 10, so I estimate roughly a 14% intraday hit probability, using the official TSE 9984 price series (with delayed vendor data as proxy) and interpreting “reaches” as any traded price. |
| 09-08 01:09 | codex-open | 9984 reaches 6800 by Sep 10? | NO 37 | | settled -37 | luna-medium price-blind says 0.17 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.33 >= 0.2): A strong recent rally and elevated volatility make a touch plausible, but reaching ¥6,800 requires roughly another 9% move in at most two sessions, with no identified company catalyst. |
| 09-08 00:15 | close-fav | Will Chris Pappas win the 2026 New Hampshire Democratic Primary for Senate | YES 25 | | settled +1 | favorite band 0.90-0.97 within 24h of close resolves YES 99% |
| 09-07 23:57 | codex-open | F1: Who will win the 2026 TAG Heuer Gran Premio de España (Spanish Grand P | YES 8 | | settled +19 | luna-medium price-blind says 0.36 vs answer 0.25 (edge +0.11 >= 0.1): Base rate: Antonelli has won 7 of 13 2026 Grands Prix (53.8%), but regression and the new Madring circuit reduce this; current winner odds imply roughly 33–38%, the race is scheduled for September 13, and the matching resolver is the FIA/F1 official classification. |
| 09-07 23:25 | codex-open | World Athletics Ultimate Championship: who will win women’s 200m? ×3 answers | YES 44 | | settled +62 | luna-medium price-blind says 0.44 vs answer 0.07 (edge +0.37 >= 0.1): Base rate: Alfred is 4-for-4 in 2026 women’s 200m wins, but this is a small sample; she is the 21.51 world leader, faces an elite championship field, and the unresolved short-name rule adds slight ambiguity; the final is scheduled for 13 September and settles via World Athletics’ official Budapest 2026 results page ([World Athletics](https://worldathletics.org/competitions/world-athletics-ultimate-championship/2026)). |
| 09-07 23:23 | codex-open | World Athletics Ultimate Championship: Who will win men’s 1500m? ×3 answers | YES 7 | | settled -7 | luna-medium price-blind says 0.30 vs answer 0.07 (edge +0.23 >= 0.1): Base rate: about 25–30% for a leading favorite in a major 1500m final; rules are unspecified, creating ambiguity and a pull toward 0.5; Myers is the world No. 1 and just won the Diamond League Final, but Kerr, Hocker, Ingebrigtsen and Nader are serious rivals; the men’s 1500m final is scheduled for September 13 before close; the resolver is World Athletics’ official Budapest 2026 results page, with no matching market witness found. |
| 09-07 22:56 | codex-open | Will the Jets make the playoffs in the 2026 NFL season? | NO 0 | | open +0 | luna-medium price-blind says 0.12 vs market 0.49 (edge -0.38 >= 0.2): The Jets’ 0% recent playoff rate, weak 5.5-win market projection, difficult AFC field, and matching sportsbook prices support about an 11.5% chance despite offseason-improvement narratives. |
| 09-07 21:40 | codex-open | Will Hunter Biden actually launch a meme coin on September 9, 2026? | YES 42 | | settled +29 | luna-medium price-blind says 0.84 vs market 0.50 (edge +0.34 >= 0.2): Base rate: only ~1% of broad meme-token launches remain actively traded after a week, but this is a media-confirmed, named-date launch; rules are clear, Sep 9 is the scheduled event, and CoinDesk/Defiant plus the official site report $LAPTOP, with the Base contract and liquidity/on-chain trading as the exact resolver, so I estimate 84% despite residual postponement/hoax risk. |
| 09-07 20:41 | codex-open | Who will win the Dillibis-Exam rap battle? | NO 17 | | settled -17 | luna-medium price-blind says 0.22 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.28 >= 0.1): Base rate: only about 20% of obscure allegedly planned online rap battles with no public listing occur within a one-week window; the rules provide no tie, cancellation, or non-occurrence clause, no scheduled event appears before the 2026-09-14 close, the exact resolver is unspecified (likely an official battle video or announcement), no matching witness markets exist, and conditional on the battle occurring I have no evidence favoring either rapper, so ambiguity pulls the estimate upward toward 0.5. |
| 09-07 20:14 | close-long | Will Dan McKee be renominated for Governor of Rhode Island in 2026? | NO 25 | | settled +1 | longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95% |
| 09-07 19:56 | codex-open | Will a Ford M-Sport or Hyundai car win WRC Rally Chile Biobío 2026? | NO 35 | | settled +26 | luna-medium price-blind says 0.21 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.29 >= 0.2): Base rate: non-Toyota winners occurred in 2 of 4 prior Chile WRC editions (50%), but Hyundai/Ford have won only 1 of 11 2026 rounds (9.1%); Toyota leads the standings, so I estimate 21%, with the clear rules resolving via official WRC final classifications after the Sep 10–13 rally, and Paraguay podiums offering limited win evidence ([WRC](https://www.wrc.com/en/events/wrc-rally-chile-bio-bio-2026), [FIA standings](https://www.fia.com/events/world-rally-championship/season-2026/standings)). |
| 09-07 19:18 | codex-open | Name of Foldable iPhone | YES 1 | | settled -1 | luna-medium price-blind says 0.28 vs answer 0.08 (edge +0.20 >= 0.1): Base rate: 0/10 prior iPhone models used a literal form-factor name like Fold; rules are absent, so exact-name versus substring/common-name readings pull toward 0.5; sentiment favors Fold but reporting favors Ultra, with Apple’s September 9 event before close, and the resolver should be Apple’s official product announcement (not rumor proxies), while related reporting is only a non-matching witness ([Apple event](https://developer.apple.com/hello/september26/), [MacRumors](https://www.macrumors.com/2026/09/04/iphone-duo/)). |
| 09-07 19:00 | codex-open | What will be my league result? ×3 answers | YES 13 | | open -3 | luna-medium price-blind says 0.45 vs answer 0.33 (edge +0.12 >= 0.1): A roughly 20–30% promotion base rate, unknown current rank, volatile remaining month, and materially ambiguous resolution wording justify a near-coin-flip estimate. |
| 09-07 18:43 | codex-open | Will Trump ban Bombardier from selling in the US by the end of this year? | YES 22 | | open -8 | luna-medium price-blind says 0.70 vs market 0.50 (edge +0.20 >= 0.2): Base rate is 50% (one of two recent Trump-Bombardier aircraft threats produced a concrete restriction); Trump’s September 7 Truth Social post explicitly said “NO MORE SELLING BOMBARDIER IN THE UNITED STATES,” but absent resolution rules it is unclear whether rhetoric counts as a legal ban, while the July Section 232 process has no scheduled decision before the December 31 close and its 180-day update falls after close; the resolver should be an official presidential action or agency rule, with Reuters and Trump’s archived post as proxies. |
| 09-07 18:27 | down-fade | Will Quarterly Capex Spend among AI Hyperscalers decrease before 2027? | YES 0 | | unfilled | down-fade: single 100-mana NO bet pushed 0.32->0.14; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-07 17:58 | codex-open | Who will be in the TOP 3 of the Manifold Market Masters League Season 41? ×4 answers | NO 13 | | open +1 | luna-medium price-blind says 0.14 vs answer 0.66 (edge -0.52 >= 0.3): A 15% top-three base rate, modestly adjusted for Jack1’s demonstrated Masters participation, gives about a 14% chance, with no reliable current-standings witness and a clear official-rollover resolver. |
| 09-07 17:14 | close-fav | Will the official high at SAN reach 85.0°F or higher on any day during Lab | YES 25 | | settled +2 | favorite band 0.90-0.97 within 24h of close resolves YES 99% |
| 09-07 16:47 | codex-open | Will Progress MS-35 launch be delayed by more than a week? | NO 58 | | settled +75 | luna-medium price-blind says 0.07 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.43 >= 0.2): Recent Progress/Soyuz operations and the September 6 rollout support an on-time launch; allowing for the low but nontrivial risk of a technical or range scrub, the probability of missing the September 16 16:15 UTC cutoff is about 7%. |
| 09-07 16:29 | codex-open | Will P vs NP be resolved after man lands on Mars? | NO 28 | | open +3 | luna-medium price-blind says 0.34 vs market 0.66 (edge -0.32 >= 0.2): Base rate: only 1 of the 7 Millennium Problems has been solved since 2000, while no human has landed on Mars; NASA’s scheduled Artemis III (2027) and Artemis IV (2028) are lunar risk-reduction events, not Mars landings, and NASA only says Mars missions could occur as early as the 2030s ([Clay](https://www.claymath.org/problem/unsolved/), [NASA](https://www.nasa.gov/humans-in-space/humans-to-mars/)); using Clay’s status as the P-vs-NP resolver and an official mission announcement/telemetry as the Mars resolver, I estimate roughly a 10% chance P≠NP is community-accepted by 2040 versus roughly 35% for a human Mars landing, with the missing neither-event-at-close clause pulling the estimate toward 0.5. |
| 09-07 12:51 | codex-open | What results will happen during Week 2 of the 2026 College Football Season ×4 answers | YES 51 | | settled +29 | luna-medium price-blind says 0.98 vs answer 0.50 (edge +0.48 >= 0.3): Virginia is an ACC/FBS home favorite over FCS Norfolk State, with a 96.6% historical FBS-over-FCS base rate and roughly 97.7%–99% current proxy estimates. |
| 09-07 12:11 | close-long | Will the address for math.eg.rego.re have a balance of more than $100 befo | NO 25 | | settled +4 | longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95% |
| 09-07 11:53 | down-fade | If Democrats win the House in the 2026 midterms, will they also win the Se | YES 0 | | unfilled | down-fade: single 50-mana NO bet pushed 0.58->0.35; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-07 11:52 | mc-indep | What results will happen during Week 2 of the 2026 College Football Season ×38 answers | NO 123 | | settled -80 | independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50 |
Showing the newest 28 of 336 trades (646 bets); each module page carries its whole book.