The same question often trades on Kalshi or Polymarket with real money behind it. When the Manifold mirror drifts more than 10% from that price, the difference is either information this venue has not absorbed yet or a pairing that was wrong to begin with. A jump is the twin moving and the mirror not yet following; a standing gap is the two venues simply disagreeing. The twin's own book has to be real to count: spread under 5%, at least 100 traded in a day. Jumps trade live in this version; standing gaps are shadow only, logged as what it would have done and moving no mana.
No decisions traced by this version.
| utc | version | market | bet | result | why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-04 20:38 | v83 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by Dec 31? [Polymarket] | YES 24 | open +2 | verified polymarket twin at 0.34, manifold 0.16, signal=jump |
| 09-04 20:38 | v83 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by Dec 31? [Polymarket] | YES 23 | open +2 | verified polymarket twin at 0.33, manifold 0.16, signal=jump |
| 09-04 20:38 | v83 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by Dec 31? [Polymarket] | YES 23 | open +2 | verified polymarket twin at 0.33, manifold 0.16, signal=jump |
| 09-04 20:38 | v83 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by Dec 31? [Polymarket] | YES 23 | open +2 | verified polymarket twin at 0.33, manifold 0.16, signal=jump |
| 09-04 20:38 | v83 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by Dec 31? [Polymarket] | YES 23 | open +2 | verified polymarket twin at 0.33, manifold 0.16, signal=jump |
5 trades, 117 staked, realised +0, open +59 if held / +12 if sold.
5 jumps for 117 mana, 5 open; 0 standing gaps for 0 mana. The other
venue's price is only worth following when its own book is real: a wide
spread or a quiet day makes the number decoration, which is why those are
separate rejections rather than one.
Traces are diagnostic and rotate; the trading journal is separate.
Built 2026-09-22 18:05Z.