trader-agent v78

Modules of v78

Own trades and own declines only; each module's page has the reasoning.

close-fav

+0 / +0

Favourites at 0.90-0.97 inside 24h of close resolve YES about 99% of the time.

0bets by entry price1

bets: 4
staked: 50
settled: none settled yet
realised: +0
open (2) sold: +0
open (2) held: +0
return sold: +0%
return held: +0%

open-snipe

-2 / -1

Bets a brand-new untraded market from its opening price toward the historical resolution rate of its cell (type x price x horizon x ante).

0bets by entry price1

bets: 3
staked: 32
settled: 0/2 won
realised: -2
open (1) sold: +1
open (1) held: +1
return sold: -5%
return held: -4%

codex-open

-45 / -21

A price-blind language-model estimate on each new market; bets only when it disagrees with the price by more than the configured edge.

0bets by entry price1

bets: 4
staked: 329
settled: 1/1 won
realised: +27
open (3) sold: -72
open (3) held: -48
return sold: -14%
return held: -6%

Trades of v78

when	module	market	bet	result	why
08-29 17:52	open-snipe	Will any person be arrested in connection with protests at Mohan Bhagwat’s	NO 9	open +1	virgin market: cell [other\|mid\|<45d\|sm] historically resolves YES 0.41 vs creator open 0.50
08-29 17:51	codex-open	Will Mohan Bhagwat be taken into custody by a U.S. government authority in	NO 73	settled +27	luna-medium price-blind says 0.00 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.50 >= 0.2): Base rate is effectively 0% (<0.1%) for a named foreign leader being detained by U.S. authorities in NYC during a two-day window; despite protests and a USCIRF call to revoke his visa, Bhagwat is publicly scheduled to speak at Madison Square Garden on August 29 and has already attended NYC events, with no reported warrant or custody action, so NYPD News and DOJ/ICE records would likely resolve NO ([AP](https://apnews.com/article/934a58a17a491eeeb71fd9285378121a), [USCIRF](https://www.uscirf.gov/news-room/releases-statements/india-must-be-held-accountable-religious-freedom-violations), [event coverage](https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/rss-chief-mohan-bhagwat-new-york-event-where-and-when-to-watch-live-universal-oneness-celebrations-zohran-mamdani-hindu-101788017649039.html)).
08-29 17:38	open-snipe	EPL: Will Aston Villa FC beat Hull City AFC?	NO 13	settled -1	virgin market: cell [other\|mid\|<45d\|sm] historically resolves YES 0.41 vs creator open 0.54
08-29 17:17	open-snipe	Will Adobe report Q3 FY2026 revenue of at least $6.80 billion?	NO 9	settled -2	virgin market: cell [other\|mid\|<45d\|sm] historically resolves YES 0.41 vs creator open 0.50
08-29 17:16	codex-open	[Will Brown] Will Transformative AI look like an abundance of specialized	YES 100	open -53	luna-medium price-blind says 0.52 vs market 0.26 (edge +0.26 >= 0.2): I estimate 52%: the analogous Manifold market is 46% ([source](https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/will-brown-will-transformative-ai-l)), while current industry evidence supports model specialization and routing ([NVIDIA](https://www.nvidia.com/en-us/glossary/specialized-ai/), [IDC](https://www.idc.com/resource-center/blog/the-future-of-ai-is-model-routing/)), but the omitted tweet and subjective poll wording warrant pulling toward 0.5.
08-29 17:16	codex-open	Assortative mating of embryonically-selected individuals	NO 100	open -20	luna-medium price-blind says 0.27 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.23 >= 0.2): The OR could exceed 2 through strong socioeconomic and geographic clustering, but the rarity of the exposure, lack of existing qualifying evidence, weak registry linkage to adult partnerships, and ambiguous resolution fallback make YES substantially less likely than not.
08-29 17:15	codex-open	Person alive now becomes functionally immortal	NO 56	open +1	luna-medium price-blind says 0.08 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.42 >= 0.2): Base rate is 0 verified cases among all humans ever; no scheduled event mechanically resolves it before 2050, and the rules define neither “functionally immortal” nor an exact resolver, so ambiguity warrants some pull toward 0.5 but evidence remains strongly NO (Guinness record: https://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/oldest-person; Nature Aging: https://www.nature.com/articles/s43587-024-00702-3).
08-29 17:15	close-fav	Will the reduction in global lithium supply due to Zimbabwe export ban exc	YES 25	open +0	favorite band 0.90-0.97 within 24h of close resolves YES 99%
08-29 17:15	close-fav	Will the U3O8 spot price exceed $50 per pound on August 29, 2026?	YES 25	open -0	favorite band 0.90-0.97 within 24h of close resolves YES 99%
08-29 17:15	close-fav	Will the U3O8 spot price exceed $40 per pound on August 29, 2026?	YES 0	unfilled	favorite band 0.90-0.97 within 24h of close resolves YES 99%
08-29 17:15	close-fav	Will the U3O8 spot price exceed $60 per pound on August 29, 2026?	YES 0	unfilled	favorite band 0.90-0.97 within 24h of close resolves YES 99%

The lineage

version	mana	status · window	bets	staked	realised	open held	open sold	per day
v89	real	live in prod 2026-09-19 16:42Z → running	221	5,709	+338	+386	-116	+242.0
v88	real	retired, book still settling 2026-09-03 13:36Z → 2026-09-19 16:42Z	1117	30,685	+928	+4016	+1235	+306.5
v81	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-30 09:55Z → 2026-09-03 13:36Z	393	13,334	+1646	+760	+5	+579.2
v80	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 19:42Z → 2026-08-30 09:55Z	26	595	+7	-1	-6	+11.3
v78	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 17:15Z → 2026-08-29 19:28Z	11	411	+25	-47	-71	-242.6
v77	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 16:03Z → 2026-08-29 17:15Z	5	247	-18	-32	-52	-985.7
v77	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 16:03Z → 2026-08-29 17:15Z	5	247	-18	-32	-52	-985.7
v76	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 15:27Z → 2026-08-29 16:02Z	10	298	+320	+0	+0	+13115.0
v75	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 13:01Z → 2026-08-29 15:27Z	13	218	+149	+0	+0	+1479.0
v74	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 10:35Z → 2026-08-29 13:01Z	12	128	+23	-14	-22	+89.3
v73	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 10:24Z → 2026-08-29 10:35Z	10	250	+3	+2	+1	+616.5
v72	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 10:12Z → 2026-08-29 10:24Z	5	125	+2	+1	+1	+343.1
v71	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 10:03Z → 2026-08-29 10:12Z	5	125	+2	+2	+2	+553.2
v70	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 06:12Z → 2026-08-29 10:03Z	9	150	-9	+8	+8	-3.0
v67	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-28 07:38Z → 2026-08-29 06:12Z	27	475	-108	+40	+21	-72.3
v66	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-28 06:43Z → 2026-08-28 07:38Z	2	50	+1	+0	-0	+36.5
v65	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-27 19:48Z → 2026-08-28 06:43Z	18	253	+340	+3	-3	+753.4
v64	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-27 10:06Z → 2026-08-27 19:48Z	9	227	+36	-64	-72	-69.3
v63	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-27 08:12Z → 2026-08-27 10:06Z	3	75	+5	-3	-5	+36.5
v62	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-27 07:18Z → 2026-08-27 08:12Z	3	69	+5	+3	+2	+224.9
v89-twin	paper	evaluating 2026-09-19 16:43Z → running	196	3,632	+191	+1131	+520	+442.2
codex-paper	paper	retired: window-complete 2026-08-22 19:49Z → 2026-08-22 19:49Z	1	40	+0	+13	+4	-
v88-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-09-03 16:10Z → 2026-09-19 12:21Z	1412	26,687	+1027	+5778	+2442	+429.6
v87	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-09-03 00:02Z → 2026-09-03 15:21Z	54	952	-375	+95	-2	-438.5
v86	paper	retired: window-complete 2026-09-02 13:27Z → 2026-09-09 15:32Z	539	13,928	+1183	+3446	+1059	+653.2
v85	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-09-02 10:16Z → 2026-09-02 13:08Z	21	849	+775	+114	-7	+7461.3
v84	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-09-02 02:00Z → 2026-09-02 08:22Z	46	350	-40	+42	+18	+5.7
v83	paper	retired: window-complete 2026-09-01 10:09Z → 2026-09-08 03:32Z	646	11,605	+727	+2860	+835	+533.5
v82	paper	retired: window-complete 2026-08-30 22:07Z → 2026-09-01 09:44Z	177	3,963	+247	+167	-2	+279.2
v80-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-29 22:05Z → 2026-08-30 07:42Z	28	650	+61	+43	+20	+259.9
v77-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-29 16:04Z → 2026-08-29 17:52Z	15	400	-116	+170	+54	+723.9
v75-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-29 13:31Z → 2026-08-29 15:38Z	16	474	-200	+35	-4	-1880.5
v72-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-29 10:14Z → 2026-08-29 12:19Z	11	250	+26	+20	+5	+532.6
v70-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-29 08:17Z → 2026-08-29 08:29Z	6	140	+2	+8	+8	+1241.1
v68	paper	retired: window-complete 2026-08-28 13:52Z → 2026-08-30 18:48Z	73	2,211	+410	+330	+249	+335.1
v67-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-28 08:16Z → 2026-08-29 07:19Z	32	792	+239	+112	+80	+365.9
v65-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-27 20:15Z → 2026-08-28 02:27Z	17	238	-57	+16	+10	-159.6
v64-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-27 10:07Z → 2026-08-27 20:07Z	13	334	+34	-51	-58	-41.4
v63-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-27 08:14Z → 2026-08-27 08:18Z	5	347	+3	+22	+5	+11001.8
v62-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-27 07:20Z → 2026-08-27 07:48Z	6	310	+3	+24	+13	+1336.9
v60-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-27 10:06Z → 2026-08-27 10:06Z	2	50	+3	+0	+0	+109728.0
v59-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 20:46Z → 2026-08-26 20:46Z	3	84	+0	+11	+1	+460637.2
v58-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 12:59Z → 2026-08-26 19:49Z	13	391	-67	+13	-11	-190.2
v57-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 12:24Z → 2026-08-26 12:51Z	2	8	+0	+12	+4	+626.0
v56-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 12:01Z → 2026-08-26 12:10Z	3	110	+0	+75	+49	+11809.4
v55-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 11:41Z → 2026-08-26 11:59Z	5	101	+1	+78	+55	+6374.5
v53-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 10:58Z → 2026-08-26 11:04Z	4	70	+22	+5	-2	+6307.7
v50-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 10:03Z → 2026-08-26 10:33Z	5	121	+34	+28	+21	+2885.8
v45	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 20:32Z → 2026-08-25 21:04Z	8	605	-86	+8	-41	-3429.4
v44	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 20:28Z → 2026-08-25 20:31Z	7	365	+15	-6	-32	+5636.0
v41	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 14:46Z → 2026-08-25 17:58Z	9	656	-481	+3	-5	-3573.8
v39	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 12:44Z → 2026-08-25 13:31Z	1	100	-100	+0	+0	-3092.3
v38	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 12:18Z → 2026-08-25 12:41Z	3	212	-12	+27	+15	+973.2
v37	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 09:45Z → 2026-08-25 09:45Z	1	28	+0	+14	+12	+37215.2
v35	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 08:50Z → 2026-08-25 08:59Z	6	184	+57	+29	+23	+14065.5
v34	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 08:46Z → 2026-08-25 08:47Z	1	131	+57	+0	+0	+258245.1
v20	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-24 13:39Z → 2026-08-24 14:34Z	3	203	-10	+94	+90	+2187.4
v16	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-24 12:42Z → 2026-08-24 13:15Z	15	375	-96	+4	+0	-4042.7
v15	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-24 12:38Z → 2026-08-24 12:39Z	9	250	-77	-26	-26	-111952.5
v14	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-24 12:35Z → 2026-08-24 12:36Z	7	222	-74	-4	-4	-86088.4
v13	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-24 12:31Z → 2026-08-24 12:32Z	8	227	-71	-4	-4	-87939.7
v12	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-24 12:16Z → 2026-08-24 12:17Z	8	222	-67	-4	-4	-92033.7
v11	paper	retired: window-complete 2026-08-23 20:07Z → 2026-08-30 04:03Z	359	10,830	+1707	+1482	+487	+503.8
v10	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-23 08:06Z → 2026-08-23 20:03Z	30	907	+216	+257	+189	+951.2
v9	paper	retired: window-complete 2026-08-22 20:03Z → 2026-08-29 00:28Z	327	7,435	+2028	+972	+410	+485.1
v8	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-22 17:52Z → 2026-08-22 19:52Z	16	400	+76	+8	+3	+1010.6
v7	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-22 08:16Z → 2026-08-22 17:06Z	6	120	+96	+95	+33	+518.9