trader-agent v82

Evaluation

v82paper window 2026-08-30 22:07Z → now, 6.2 d resolved 41 / 40 retired: window-complete

sim

+23.7 /day prod, same window

+445.4 /day

HOLD noise floor ±125.1/day (5 pts of prod stake) · markets bet by both 57

window 6.2d < 7d
sim earns +23.7 mana/day (de-scaled /1) vs prod +445.4, beyond the 5.0pt-of-stake noise floor (125.1/day)

Modules of v82

Own trades and own declines only; each module's page has the reasoning.

codex-openlive

+480 / +600

A price-blind language-model estimate on each new market; bets only when it disagrees with the price by more than the configured edge.

0bets by entry price1

bets: 43
staked: 1,505
settled: 14/18 won
realised: +294
open (19) sold: +187
open (19) held: +307
return sold: +32%
return held: +40%
booked off probe: 1

close-longlive

+60 / +61

Longshots at 0.03-0.15 inside 24h of close resolve NO about 95% of the time.

0bets by entry price1

bets: 52
staked: 1,300
settled: 35/35 won
realised: +58
open (17) sold: +2
open (17) held: +3
return sold: +5%
return held: +5%

close-favlive

+13 / +13

Favourites at 0.90-0.97 inside 24h of close resolve YES about 99% of the time.

0bets by entry price1

bets: 10
staked: 250
settled: 9/9 won
realised: +13
open (1) sold: +0
open (1) held: +0
return sold: +5%
return held: +5%

open-snipelive

-3 / -2

Bets a brand-new untraded market from its opening price toward the historical resolution rate of its cell (type x price x horizon x ante).

0bets by entry price1

bets: 2
staked: 15
settled: none settled yet
realised: +0
open (1) sold: -3
open (1) held: -2
return sold: -18%
return held: -11%

whale-fadelive

-18 / +7

A single 100+ mana YES bet that pushes a mid-life market up 5+ points is overconfident on average; fades it.

0bets by entry price1

bets: 9
staked: 200
settled: none settled yet
realised: +0
open (2) sold: -18
open (2) held: +7
return sold: -9%
return held: +4%

mc-indeplive

-132 / -127

Independent multiple-choice answers listed at creation resolve YES far less often than their 0.50 opens imply.

0bets by entry price1

bets: 52
staked: 441
settled: 6/23 won
realised: -100
open (29) sold: -33
open (29) held: -28
return sold: -30%
return held: -29%

down-fadelive

-155 / -139

0bets by entry price1

bets: 9
staked: 252
settled: 0/1 won
realised: -18
open (4) sold: -138
open (4) held: -121
return sold: -61%
return held: -55%

codex-swingoff

no fills

Exit policy for codex-open positions.

disabled in this version's config

event-makeroff

no fills

Quotes both sides of busy event markets and collects the spread.

disabled in this version's config

mc-otherlive

no fills

The catch-all 'Other' answer in winner-take-all markets is overpriced above 0.20; buys NO toward 0.12.

judged 215 markets, placed nothing

numeric-tailshadow

no fills

Buys the lowest bucket of a new numeric or date market.

judged 215 markets, placed nothing

park-nolive

no fills

Parks idle mana as NO in stale mid-priced books instead of leaving it in cash.

judged 72 markets, placed nothing

Trades of v82

when	module	market	bet	result	why
09-01 09:44	close-long	WPlace Colors vs Void: Which side will win?	NO 25	settled +1	longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
09-01 09:19	codex-open	Who will win the Brawl Stars challengers? ×2 answers	YES 11	settled +22	luna-medium price-blind says 0.50 vs answer 0.08 (edge +0.42 >= 0.1): The market is materially ambiguous because it asks who will win but defines no YES outcome or candidate, so despite a 1/12 base rate for any unspecified team, the estimate is pulled to 0.5.
09-01 07:25	down-fade	Will the full AD/CVD case on Russian palladium result in a duty order by O	YES 100	open -63	down-fade: single 2000-mana NO bet pushed 0.68->0.08; big NO aggression is overconfident on average
09-01 07:25	down-fade	Will WTI crude oil close at or below $65 before October 1, 2026?	YES 0	unfilled	down-fade: single 200-mana NO bet pushed 0.23->0.07; big NO aggression is overconfident on average
09-01 07:16	down-fade	Will an AD duty order on unwrought palladium from Russia be issued by Oct	YES 100	open -77	down-fade: single 1000-mana NO bet pushed 0.67->0.21; big NO aggression is overconfident on average
09-01 07:14	close-long	Will Uber raise the default minimum suggested tip?	NO 25	settled +3	longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
09-01 06:51	down-fade	Will Gukesh be board 1 for India at Olympiad?	YES 18	settled -18	down-fade: single 500-mana NO bet pushed 0.71->0.34; big NO aggression is overconfident on average
09-01 05:47	down-fade	Will Liv Golf shut down in 2026?	YES 0	unfilled	down-fade: single 53-mana NO bet pushed 0.57->0.25; big NO aggression is overconfident on average
09-01 05:20	whale-fade	Will Lionel Messi be with Inter Miami at the end of 2027?	NO 0	unfilled	fade: single 50-mana YES bet pushed 0.44->0.61; big YES aggression is overconfident on average
09-01 05:17	whale-fade	ICE agent murdered on duty by end of 2026?	NO 85	open +19	fade: single 50-mana YES bet pushed 0.18->0.40; big YES aggression is overconfident on average
09-01 04:43	close-long	Anglo American & Teck Resources merge by Sep 1, 2026	NO 25	settled +1	longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
09-01 04:43	close-long	Will Jair Bolsonaro run for the Senate in 2026?	NO 25	open +0	longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
09-01 04:43	close-long	Will Pentagon reverse course on Anthropic before September 2, 2026 deadlin	NO 25	settled +1	longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
09-01 04:43	close-long	Will the silver spot price be above $75 USD on September 1st?	NO 25	settled +3	longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
09-01 04:43	close-long	Will we conclude Tesla launched level 4 robotaxis in summer 2025?	NO 25	open -2	longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
09-01 04:36	codex-open	🎃What will happen in October 2026? [ADD RESPONSES] ×4 answers	NO 11	open +2	luna-medium price-blind says 0.01 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.48 >= 0.3): Base rate is 0 confirmed release-date announcements in roughly 15 years (0/180 months); despite NYCC on October 8–11, the official GRRM Not a Blog, publications page, and appearances page show no date or relevant 2026 announcement, while publisher reporting rejects a fall release.
09-01 03:43	close-long	Will Puella Magi Madoka Magica: Walpurgisnacht Rising contain a magical gi	NO 25	open +0	longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
09-01 03:43	close-long	Will the DC Circuit rule for Anthropic on the merits in the Pentagon suppl	NO 25	open +1	longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
09-01 03:43	close-long	Gemini 3.5 Flash trades for a profit by the end of the month?	NO 25	settled +1	longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
09-01 03:43	close-long	Trump says or posts something deprecating about Dolly Parton within a week	NO 25	settled +1	longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
09-01 03:43	close-long	Will the worlds installed power generation from nuclear sources in 2025 be	NO 25	settled +2	longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
09-01 03:43	close-long	Will the next full gemini model be frontier at coding?	NO 25	open +1	longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
08-31 22:12	close-long	Will Daniel Lord upload a new YouTube video before September 1, 2026?	NO 25	settled +2	longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
08-31 22:12	close-long	Will Anthropic somehow patch the Opus 5 base-model-like behavior from "---	NO 25	settled +1	longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
08-31 22:12	close-long	Will Iran and US actually cease fire before September 2026?	NO 25	settled +1	longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
08-31 22:01	whale-fade	roon (@tszzl) leaves OpenAI before July 2027?	NO 0	unfilled	fade: single 50-mana YES bet pushed 0.52->0.70; big YES aggression is overconfident on average
08-31 20:52	codex-open	Will nadya271 reach Codeforces International Master in or before 2027?	YES 72	open +2	luna-medium price-blind says 0.99 vs market 0.50 (edge +0.49 >= 0.2): Base rate: International Master is 0.907% of all registered Codeforces users (and Master→IM progression is 33.10%); rules are unspecified but standard interpretation is attainment by the deadline, and official standings already show nadya271 at 2346, above the 2300 IM threshold ([Codeforces rank rules](https://codeforces.com/blog/entry/99660?locale=en&mobile=false), [standings](https://codeforces.com/contest/2119/standings/participant/213775242), [distribution](https://codeforces.com/blog/entry/151862?locale=en&mobile=true)), so scheduled rated contests before 2027-12-31 are immaterial, with the official Codeforces rating/profile as resolver and no matching witness market found.
08-31 20:42	close-long	Seb Krier gets fired OR promoted at Google DeepMind before September?	NO 25	settled +3	longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%

Showing the newest 28 of 111 trades (177 bets); each module page carries its whole book.

The lineage

version	mana	status · window	bets	staked	realised	open held	open sold	per day
v89	real	live in prod 2026-09-19 16:42Z → running	221	5,709	+338	+386	-116	+242.3
v88	real	retired, book still settling 2026-09-03 13:36Z → 2026-09-19 16:42Z	1117	30,685	+928	+4016	+1235	+306.5
v81	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-30 09:55Z → 2026-09-03 13:36Z	393	13,334	+1646	+760	+5	+579.2
v80	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 19:42Z → 2026-08-30 09:55Z	26	595	+7	-1	-6	+11.3
v78	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 17:15Z → 2026-08-29 19:28Z	11	411	+25	-47	-71	-242.6
v77	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 16:03Z → 2026-08-29 17:15Z	5	247	-18	-32	-52	-985.7
v77	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 16:03Z → 2026-08-29 17:15Z	5	247	-18	-32	-52	-985.7
v76	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 15:27Z → 2026-08-29 16:02Z	10	298	+320	+0	+0	+13115.0
v75	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 13:01Z → 2026-08-29 15:27Z	13	218	+149	+0	+0	+1479.0
v74	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 10:35Z → 2026-08-29 13:01Z	12	128	+23	-14	-22	+89.3
v73	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 10:24Z → 2026-08-29 10:35Z	10	250	+3	+2	+1	+616.5
v72	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 10:12Z → 2026-08-29 10:24Z	5	125	+2	+1	+1	+343.1
v71	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 10:03Z → 2026-08-29 10:12Z	5	125	+2	+2	+2	+553.2
v70	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 06:12Z → 2026-08-29 10:03Z	9	150	-9	+8	+8	-3.0
v67	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-28 07:38Z → 2026-08-29 06:12Z	27	475	-108	+40	+21	-72.3
v66	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-28 06:43Z → 2026-08-28 07:38Z	2	50	+1	+0	-0	+36.5
v65	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-27 19:48Z → 2026-08-28 06:43Z	18	253	+340	+3	-3	+753.4
v64	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-27 10:06Z → 2026-08-27 19:48Z	9	227	+36	-64	-72	-69.3
v63	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-27 08:12Z → 2026-08-27 10:06Z	3	75	+5	-3	-5	+36.5
v62	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-27 07:18Z → 2026-08-27 08:12Z	3	69	+5	+3	+2	+224.9
v89-twin	paper	evaluating 2026-09-19 16:43Z → running	196	3,632	+191	+1131	+520	+442.7
codex-paper	paper	retired: window-complete 2026-08-22 19:49Z → 2026-08-22 19:49Z	1	40	+0	+13	+4	-
v88-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-09-03 16:10Z → 2026-09-19 12:21Z	1412	26,687	+1027	+5778	+2442	+429.6
v87	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-09-03 00:02Z → 2026-09-03 15:21Z	54	952	-375	+95	-2	-438.5
v86	paper	retired: window-complete 2026-09-02 13:27Z → 2026-09-09 15:32Z	539	13,928	+1183	+3446	+1059	+653.2
v85	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-09-02 10:16Z → 2026-09-02 13:08Z	21	849	+775	+114	-7	+7461.3
v84	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-09-02 02:00Z → 2026-09-02 08:22Z	46	350	-40	+42	+18	+5.7
v83	paper	retired: window-complete 2026-09-01 10:09Z → 2026-09-08 03:32Z	646	11,605	+727	+2860	+835	+533.5
v82	paper	retired: window-complete 2026-08-30 22:07Z → 2026-09-01 09:44Z	177	3,963	+247	+167	-2	+279.2
v80-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-29 22:05Z → 2026-08-30 07:42Z	28	650	+61	+43	+20	+259.9
v77-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-29 16:04Z → 2026-08-29 17:52Z	15	400	-116	+170	+54	+723.9
v75-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-29 13:31Z → 2026-08-29 15:38Z	16	474	-200	+35	-4	-1880.5
v72-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-29 10:14Z → 2026-08-29 12:19Z	11	250	+26	+20	+5	+532.6
v70-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-29 08:17Z → 2026-08-29 08:29Z	6	140	+2	+8	+8	+1241.1
v68	paper	retired: window-complete 2026-08-28 13:52Z → 2026-08-30 18:48Z	73	2,211	+410	+330	+249	+335.1
v67-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-28 08:16Z → 2026-08-29 07:19Z	32	792	+239	+112	+80	+365.9
v65-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-27 20:15Z → 2026-08-28 02:27Z	17	238	-57	+16	+10	-159.6
v64-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-27 10:07Z → 2026-08-27 20:07Z	13	334	+34	-51	-58	-41.4
v63-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-27 08:14Z → 2026-08-27 08:18Z	5	347	+3	+22	+5	+11001.8
v62-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-27 07:20Z → 2026-08-27 07:48Z	6	310	+3	+24	+13	+1336.9
v60-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-27 10:06Z → 2026-08-27 10:06Z	2	50	+3	+0	+0	+109728.0
v59-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 20:46Z → 2026-08-26 20:46Z	3	84	+0	+11	+1	+460637.2
v58-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 12:59Z → 2026-08-26 19:49Z	13	391	-67	+13	-11	-190.2
v57-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 12:24Z → 2026-08-26 12:51Z	2	8	+0	+12	+4	+626.0
v56-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 12:01Z → 2026-08-26 12:10Z	3	110	+0	+75	+49	+11809.4
v55-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 11:41Z → 2026-08-26 11:59Z	5	101	+1	+78	+55	+6374.5
v53-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 10:58Z → 2026-08-26 11:04Z	4	70	+22	+5	-2	+6307.7
v50-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 10:03Z → 2026-08-26 10:33Z	5	121	+34	+28	+21	+2885.8
v45	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 20:32Z → 2026-08-25 21:04Z	8	605	-86	+8	-41	-3429.4
v44	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 20:28Z → 2026-08-25 20:31Z	7	365	+15	-6	-32	+5636.0
v41	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 14:46Z → 2026-08-25 17:58Z	9	656	-481	+3	-5	-3573.8
v39	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 12:44Z → 2026-08-25 13:31Z	1	100	-100	+0	+0	-3092.3
v38	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 12:18Z → 2026-08-25 12:41Z	3	212	-12	+27	+15	+973.2
v37	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 09:45Z → 2026-08-25 09:45Z	1	28	+0	+14	+12	+37215.2
v35	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 08:50Z → 2026-08-25 08:59Z	6	184	+57	+29	+23	+14065.5
v34	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 08:46Z → 2026-08-25 08:47Z	1	131	+57	+0	+0	+258245.1
v20	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-24 13:39Z → 2026-08-24 14:34Z	3	203	-10	+94	+90	+2187.4
v16	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-24 12:42Z → 2026-08-24 13:15Z	15	375	-96	+4	+0	-4042.7
v15	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-24 12:38Z → 2026-08-24 12:39Z	9	250	-77	-26	-26	-111952.5
v14	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-24 12:35Z → 2026-08-24 12:36Z	7	222	-74	-4	-4	-86088.4
v13	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-24 12:31Z → 2026-08-24 12:32Z	8	227	-71	-4	-4	-87939.7
v12	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-24 12:16Z → 2026-08-24 12:17Z	8	222	-67	-4	-4	-92033.7
v11	paper	retired: window-complete 2026-08-23 20:07Z → 2026-08-30 04:03Z	359	10,830	+1707	+1482	+487	+503.8
v10	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-23 08:06Z → 2026-08-23 20:03Z	30	907	+216	+257	+189	+951.2
v9	paper	retired: window-complete 2026-08-22 20:03Z → 2026-08-29 00:28Z	327	7,435	+2028	+972	+410	+485.1
v8	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-22 17:52Z → 2026-08-22 19:52Z	16	400	+76	+8	+3	+1010.6
v7	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-22 08:16Z → 2026-08-22 17:06Z	6	120	+96	+95	+33	+518.9