When a market's answers must sum to one there is usually a catch-all — Other, none of these, Someone else — and it gets priced like a real candidate instead of the residue it is. Above 0.20 that is worth fading: this module buys NO on that single answer, aiming at about 0.12, and ignores every other answer in the market.
Nothing judged yet.
| utc | version | market | bet | result | why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-07 04:16 | v83 | Who will win the 2027 Democratic primary for governor of Kentucky? :: Other | NO 15 | open | sum-to-one Other answers priced >=0.20 resolve ~10-21%% historically; open 0.50 -> target 0.12 |
| 09-06 19:32 | v83 | Next Ministerpräsident of Sachsen-Anhalt? :: Other | NO 15 | open -4 | sum-to-one Other answers priced >=0.20 resolve ~10-21%% historically; open 0.33 -> target 0.12 |
| 09-06 11:12 | v83 | Who will be the next Chairman of Tata Sons? :: Other | NO 11 | open +0 | sum-to-one Other answers priced >=0.20 resolve ~10-21%% historically; open 0.25 -> target 0.12 |
| 09-03 14:48 | v83 | What tier will the next Claude release be? :: Other | NO 8 | settled +2 | sum-to-one Other answers priced >=0.20 resolve ~10-21%% historically; open 0.20 -> target 0.12 |
| 09-02 15:23 | v83 | Which party will win the Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton by-election? :: Other | NO 15 | open +5 | sum-to-one Other answers priced >=0.20 resolve ~10-21%% historically; open 0.32 -> target 0.12 |
5 trades, 63 staked, realised +2, open +1 if held / +1 if sold.
5 catch-alls faded for 63 mana;
realised +2 on 1 settled. This
module touches exactly one answer per market, so unlike its sibling
mc-indep it cannot accidentally take a dozen correlated positions in one
market.
Traces are diagnostic and rotate; the trading journal is the book above.
Built 2026-09-22 18:01Z.