Someone drops a big YES bet and shoves a market upward. On average that is overconfidence rather than news, so this module buys the other side. It only counts as a whale above 50 mana and a 10% shove, it stakes 25 and holds at most 50 per market — so it turns almost everything down. This page is mostly a record of what it turned down.
No whale-sized bets seen yet. Every bet on the venue is checked; this fills when one is big enough to matter.
| market type | fades | staked | realised | open, if held | open, if sold | mana / fade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| binary | 19 | 804 | -327.9 (7 settled) | +553.1 | -3.9 | +11.85 |
| multiple choice, independent | off in this version | |||||
| multiple choice, one winner | off in this version | |||||
| utc | version | market | bet | result | why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-04 18:07 | v83 | Will Lindsay Clancy be convicted of murder of her 3 children? | NO 85 | open +40 | fade: single 500-mana YES bet pushed 0.30->0.48; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-04 05:33 | v83 | Will French people with enterprise gpt access be able to access Astra / GPT-6 before the 7th of September 00:0 | NO 45 | settled +131 | fade: single 75-mana YES bet pushed 0.45->0.74; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-04 01:50 | v83 | Openai Astra publically available before September 7th 2026 | NO 0 | unfilled | fade: single 771-mana YES bet pushed 0.74->0.86; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-04 01:20 | v83 | Will Tesla's Cybercab be carrying public riders in at least 3 US metro areas by December 31, 2026? | NO 85 | open +4 | fade: single 70-mana YES bet pushed 0.71->0.91; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-04 01:06 | v83 | MLB: Will the Washington Nationals sweep the Los Angeles Angels OR will the 3-game series total 28 or more run | NO 85 | settled -85 | fade: single 50-mana YES bet pushed 0.48->0.68; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-03 20:51 | v83 | Will Bethesda announce OR release an official remaster of Fallout 3 or Fallout: New Vegas before Dec 31, 2026? | NO 45 | settled -45 | fade: single 316-mana YES bet pushed 0.55->0.95; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-03 20:40 | v83 | Will Alcaraz win the next round of the US open? C.Alcaraz vs Y.Wu? | NO 124 | settled -124 | fade: single 120-mana YES bet pushed 0.68->0.88; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-02 16:45 | v83 | Will GPT-6 be released before January 1, 2027? | NO 0 | unfilled | fade: single 50-mana YES bet pushed 0.73->0.86; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-02 16:41 | v83 | Is OpenAI's upcoming "Astra" model going to be called GPT-6? | NO 115 | settled -115 | fade: single 50-mana YES bet pushed 0.66->0.79; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-02 16:39 | v83 | Is OpenAI's upcoming "Astra" model going to be called GPT-6? | NO 45 | settled -45 | fade: single 750-mana YES bet pushed 0.39->0.71; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-02 16:36 | v83 | Will GPT-6 be released before the end of October 2026? | NO 45 | settled -45 | fade: single 96-mana YES bet pushed 0.52->0.81; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-02 16:19 | v83 | Will GPT 6 be released by September 15th? | NO 0 | unfilled | fade: single 200-mana YES bet pushed 0.28->0.40; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-02 15:24 | v83 | Will GPT-6 be called "Astra"? | NO 0 | unfilled | fade: single 50-mana YES bet pushed 0.45->0.66; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-01 19:47 | v83 | Will the top Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index score reach 65 or higher on September 30, 2026? | NO 45 | open -40 | fade: single 1000-mana YES bet pushed 0.49->0.79; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-01 19:31 | v83 | Will Opportunities Party get at least one seat in the next New Zealand General Election? | NO 0 | unfilled | fade: single 500-mana YES bet pushed 0.73->0.85; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-01 13:57 | v83 | Will Glosso have over 10000 total users by EOY 2026? | NO 85 | open -8 | fade: single 500-mana YES bet pushed 0.51->0.70; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-01 13:34 | v83 | Will Keir Starmer lose his seat at the next general election? | NO 0 | unfilled | fade: single 100-mana YES bet pushed 0.69->0.86; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-01 13:34 | v83 | QqzzA8R8Cl | NO 0 | unfilled | fade (blind, verify after): single 250-mana YES bet pushed 0.58->0.93; market not in cache |
| 09-01 13:21 | v83 | At the end of 2026, will there be any European model that ranks higher than a model currently on LLM Agent Are | NO 0 | unfilled | fade: single 230-mana YES bet pushed 0.31->0.90; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
19 trades, 804 staked, realised -328, open +553 if held / -4 if sold, 8 unfilled.
No decisions traced by this version.
| utc | shove | move | whale | market | outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nothing above whale size yet. | |||||
Of 0 bets judged, 0 cleared every rule
and were faded for 804 mana; 0 were beaten to it, the move
taken by someone faster before the last rule could pass. The dashed leg on
each shove is the part of the move that was gone before this module could
act. The book above has every fade this version owns, with its era and
result; the log is traces, which rotate.
Traces are diagnostic and rotate; the trading journal is separate.
Built 2026-09-22 18:05Z.