real mana · 2026-08-29 16:03Z → 2026-08-29 17:15Z
v77real mana
retired, book still settling9 live · 1 shadow · 1 off
bets
5 1 settled
staked
247
realised
-18
open, if held
-32
open, if sold
-52
per day
-985.7

Modules of v77

Own trades and own declines only; each module's page has the reasoning.

whale-fade

+12 / +25

A single 100+ mana YES bet that pushes a mid-life market up 5+ points is overconfident on average; fades it.

0bets by entry price1
bets
1
staked
85
settled
none settled yet
realised
+0
open (1) sold
+12
open (1) held
+25
return sold
+14%
return held
+29%

open-snipe

-4 / -3

Bets a brand-new untraded market from its opening price toward the historical resolution rate of its cell (type x price x horizon x ante).

0bets by entry price1
bets
1
staked
19
settled
none settled yet
realised
+0
open (1) sold
-4
open (1) held
-3
return sold
-23%
return held
-15%

down-fade

-18 / -18

0bets by entry price1
bets
1
staked
18
settled
0/1 won
realised
-18
open (0) sold
+0
open (0) held
+0
return sold
-100%
return held
-100%

codex-open

-60 / -54

A price-blind language-model estimate on each new market; bets only when it disagrees with the price by more than the configured edge.

0bets by entry price1
bets
2
staked
125
settled
none settled yet
realised
+0
open (2) sold
-60
open (2) held
-54
return sold
-48%
return held
-43%

Trades of v77

whenmodulemarketbet0 · price · 1resultwhy
08-29 16:57codex-openWill Barron Trump enter politics?NO 25open -1luna-medium price-blind says 0.28 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.22 >= 0.2): Historical base rate is roughly 20–25% of presidential children eventually seeking elected office; Barron’s dynastic access raises this modestly, but his low public-political engagement offsets hype, with federal elections scheduled in 2028, 2032, 2036, and 2040 before the deadline, resolved by the relevant jurisdiction’s official candidate filings and certified vote canvass (no matching witness market identified).
08-29 16:51codex-open[Will Brown] Will Transformative AI look like an abundance of specialized YES 100open -58luna-medium price-blind says 0.50 vs market 0.30 (edge +0.20 >= 0.2): Base rate is approximately 50% for agreement with broad speculative AI theses, and the omitted tweet plus unspecified poll wording create enough resolution ambiguity to keep the estimate near 0.5; no scheduled event or matching witness materially shifts it, and Manifold's August 2027 poll is the exact resolver.
08-29 16:51down-fadeEPL: Will Fulham beat Crystal Palace?YES 18settled -18down-fade: single 100-mana NO bet pushed 0.48->0.20; big NO aggression is overconfident on average
08-29 16:48open-snipeWill Google release a higher-quality successor to Nano Banana Pro before NNO 19open -4virgin market: cell [other|mid|>=45d|sm] historically resolves YES 0.33 vs creator open 0.50
08-29 16:14whale-fadeNO 85open +12fade (blind, verify after): single 750-mana YES bet pushed 0.65->0.82; market not in cache

The lineage

versionmanastatus · windowbetsstakedrealisedopen heldopen soldper day
v89reallive in prod
2026-09-19 16:42Z → running		2215,709+338+386-116+242.3
v88realretired, book still settling
2026-09-03 13:36Z → 2026-09-19 16:42Z		111730,685+928+4016+1235+306.5
v81realretired, book still settling
2026-08-30 09:55Z → 2026-09-03 13:36Z		39313,334+1646+760+5+579.2
v80realretired, book still settling
2026-08-29 19:42Z → 2026-08-30 09:55Z		26595+7-1-6+11.3
v78realretired, book still settling
2026-08-29 17:15Z → 2026-08-29 19:28Z		11411+25-47-71-242.6
v77realretired, book still settling
2026-08-29 16:03Z → 2026-08-29 17:15Z		5247-18-32-52-985.7
v77realretired, book still settling
2026-08-29 16:03Z → 2026-08-29 17:15Z		5247-18-32-52-985.7
v76realretired, book still settling
2026-08-29 15:27Z → 2026-08-29 16:02Z		10298+320+0+0+13115.0
v75realretired, book still settling
2026-08-29 13:01Z → 2026-08-29 15:27Z		13218+149+0+0+1479.0
v74realretired, book still settling
2026-08-29 10:35Z → 2026-08-29 13:01Z		12128+23-14-22+89.3
v73realretired, book still settling
2026-08-29 10:24Z → 2026-08-29 10:35Z		10250+3+2+1+616.5
v72realretired, book still settling
2026-08-29 10:12Z → 2026-08-29 10:24Z		5125+2+1+1+343.1
v71realretired, book still settling
2026-08-29 10:03Z → 2026-08-29 10:12Z		5125+2+2+2+553.2
v70realretired, book still settling
2026-08-29 06:12Z → 2026-08-29 10:03Z		9150-9+8+8-3.0
v67realretired, book still settling
2026-08-28 07:38Z → 2026-08-29 06:12Z		27475-108+40+21-72.3
v66realretired, book still settling
2026-08-28 06:43Z → 2026-08-28 07:38Z		250+1+0-0+36.5
v65realretired, book still settling
2026-08-27 19:48Z → 2026-08-28 06:43Z		18253+340+3-3+753.4
v64realretired, book still settling
2026-08-27 10:06Z → 2026-08-27 19:48Z		9227+36-64-72-69.3
v63realretired, book still settling
2026-08-27 08:12Z → 2026-08-27 10:06Z		375+5-3-5+36.5
v62realretired, book still settling
2026-08-27 07:18Z → 2026-08-27 08:12Z		369+5+3+2+224.9
v89-twinpaperevaluating
2026-09-19 16:43Z → running		1963,632+191+1131+520+442.7
codex-paperpaperretired: window-complete
2026-08-22 19:49Z → 2026-08-22 19:49Z		140+0+13+4-
v88-twinpaperretired: prod-moved
2026-09-03 16:10Z → 2026-09-19 12:21Z		141226,687+1027+5778+2442+429.6
v87paperretired: superseded-same-day
2026-09-03 00:02Z → 2026-09-03 15:21Z		54952-375+95-2-438.5
v86paperretired: window-complete
2026-09-02 13:27Z → 2026-09-09 15:32Z		53913,928+1183+3446+1059+653.2
v85paperretired: superseded-same-day
2026-09-02 10:16Z → 2026-09-02 13:08Z		21849+775+114-7+7461.3
v84paperretired: superseded-same-day
2026-09-02 02:00Z → 2026-09-02 08:22Z		46350-40+42+18+5.7
v83paperretired: window-complete
2026-09-01 10:09Z → 2026-09-08 03:32Z		64611,605+727+2860+835+533.5
v82paperretired: window-complete
2026-08-30 22:07Z → 2026-09-01 09:44Z		1773,963+247+167-2+279.2
v80-twinpaperretired: prod-moved
2026-08-29 22:05Z → 2026-08-30 07:42Z		28650+61+43+20+259.9
v77-twinpaperretired: prod-moved
2026-08-29 16:04Z → 2026-08-29 17:52Z		15400-116+170+54+723.9
v75-twinpaperretired: prod-moved
2026-08-29 13:31Z → 2026-08-29 15:38Z		16474-200+35-4-1880.5
v72-twinpaperretired: prod-moved
2026-08-29 10:14Z → 2026-08-29 12:19Z		11250+26+20+5+532.6
v70-twinpaperretired: prod-moved
2026-08-29 08:17Z → 2026-08-29 08:29Z		6140+2+8+8+1241.1
v68paperretired: window-complete
2026-08-28 13:52Z → 2026-08-30 18:48Z		732,211+410+330+249+335.1
v67-twinpaperretired: prod-moved
2026-08-28 08:16Z → 2026-08-29 07:19Z		32792+239+112+80+365.9
v65-twinpaperretired: prod-moved
2026-08-27 20:15Z → 2026-08-28 02:27Z		17238-57+16+10-159.6
v64-twinpaperretired: prod-moved
2026-08-27 10:07Z → 2026-08-27 20:07Z		13334+34-51-58-41.4
v63-twinpaperretired: prod-moved
2026-08-27 08:14Z → 2026-08-27 08:18Z		5347+3+22+5+11001.8
v62-twinpaperretired: prod-moved
2026-08-27 07:20Z → 2026-08-27 07:48Z		6310+3+24+13+1336.9
v60-twinpaperretired: prod-moved
2026-08-27 10:06Z → 2026-08-27 10:06Z		250+3+0+0+109728.0
v59-twinpaperretired: prod-moved
2026-08-26 20:46Z → 2026-08-26 20:46Z		384+0+11+1+460637.2
v58-twinpaperretired: prod-moved
2026-08-26 12:59Z → 2026-08-26 19:49Z		13391-67+13-11-190.2
v57-twinpaperretired: prod-moved
2026-08-26 12:24Z → 2026-08-26 12:51Z		28+0+12+4+626.0
v56-twinpaperretired: prod-moved
2026-08-26 12:01Z → 2026-08-26 12:10Z		3110+0+75+49+11809.4
v55-twinpaperretired: prod-moved
2026-08-26 11:41Z → 2026-08-26 11:59Z		5101+1+78+55+6374.5
v53-twinpaperretired: prod-moved
2026-08-26 10:58Z → 2026-08-26 11:04Z		470+22+5-2+6307.7
v50-twinpaperretired: prod-moved
2026-08-26 10:03Z → 2026-08-26 10:33Z		5121+34+28+21+2885.8
v45paperretired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-25 20:32Z → 2026-08-25 21:04Z		8605-86+8-41-3429.4
v44paperretired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-25 20:28Z → 2026-08-25 20:31Z		7365+15-6-32+5636.0
v41paperretired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-25 14:46Z → 2026-08-25 17:58Z		9656-481+3-5-3573.8
v39paperretired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-25 12:44Z → 2026-08-25 13:31Z		1100-100+0+0-3092.3
v38paperretired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-25 12:18Z → 2026-08-25 12:41Z		3212-12+27+15+973.2
v37paperretired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-25 09:45Z → 2026-08-25 09:45Z		128+0+14+12+37215.2
v35paperretired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-25 08:50Z → 2026-08-25 08:59Z		6184+57+29+23+14065.5
v34paperretired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-25 08:46Z → 2026-08-25 08:47Z		1131+57+0+0+258245.1
v20paperretired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-24 13:39Z → 2026-08-24 14:34Z		3203-10+94+90+2187.4
v16paperretired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-24 12:42Z → 2026-08-24 13:15Z		15375-96+4+0-4042.7
v15paperretired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-24 12:38Z → 2026-08-24 12:39Z		9250-77-26-26-111952.5
v14paperretired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-24 12:35Z → 2026-08-24 12:36Z		7222-74-4-4-86088.4
v13paperretired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-24 12:31Z → 2026-08-24 12:32Z		8227-71-4-4-87939.7
v12paperretired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-24 12:16Z → 2026-08-24 12:17Z		8222-67-4-4-92033.7
v11paperretired: window-complete
2026-08-23 20:07Z → 2026-08-30 04:03Z		35910,830+1707+1482+487+503.8
v10paperretired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-23 08:06Z → 2026-08-23 20:03Z		30907+216+257+189+951.2
v9paperretired: window-complete
2026-08-22 20:03Z → 2026-08-29 00:28Z		3277,435+2028+972+410+485.1
v8paperretired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-22 17:52Z → 2026-08-22 19:52Z		16400+76+8+3+1010.6
v7paperretired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-22 08:16Z → 2026-08-22 17:06Z		6120+96+95+33+518.9