trader-agent v9

Modules of v9

Own trades and own declines only; each module's page has the reasoning.

codex-openlive

+1,126 / +1,324

A price-blind language-model estimate on each new market; bets only when it disagrees with the price by more than the configured edge.

0bets by entry price1

bets: 37
staked: 2,301
settled: 9/14 won
realised: +922
open (20) sold: +204
open (20) held: +402
return sold: +49%
return held: +58%

open-snipelive

+915 / +957

Bets a brand-new untraded market from its opening price toward the historical resolution rate of its cell (type x price x horizon x ante).

0bets by entry price1

bets: 77
staked: 1,659
settled: 10/31 won
realised: +733
open (41) sold: +182
open (41) held: +223
return sold: +55%
return held: +58%

whale-fadelive

+267 / +567

A single 100+ mana YES bet that pushes a mid-life market up 5+ points is overconfident on average; fades it.

0bets by entry price1

bets: 72
staked: 1,800
settled: 9/24 won
realised: +199
open (48) sold: +68
open (48) held: +368
return sold: +15%
return held: +32%

close-longlive

+224 / +224

Longshots at 0.03-0.15 inside 24h of close resolve NO about 95% of the time.

0bets by entry price1

bets: 10
staked: 240
settled: 7/8 won
realised: +223
open (2) sold: +0
open (2) held: +0
return sold: +93%
return held: +93%

mc-otherlive

+7 / +8

The catch-all 'Other' answer in winner-take-all markets is overpriced above 0.20; buys NO toward 0.12.

0bets by entry price1

bets: 4
staked: 45
settled: 1/1 won
realised: +3
open (3) sold: +5
open (3) held: +5
return sold: +17%
return held: +17%

close-favlive

-11 / -11

Favourites at 0.90-0.97 inside 24h of close resolve YES about 99% of the time.

0bets by entry price1

bets: 14
staked: 350
settled: 8/10 won
realised: -13
open (4) sold: +2
open (4) held: +2
return sold: -3%
return held: -3%

mc-indeplive

-42 / -27

Independent multiple-choice answers listed at creation resolve YES far less often than their 0.50 opens imply.

0bets by entry price1

bets: 85
staked: 339
settled: 4/4 won
realised: +14
open (81) sold: -55
open (81) held: -41
return sold: -12%
return held: -8%

park-nolive

-49 / -41

Parks idle mana as NO in stale mid-priced books instead of leaving it in cash.

0bets by entry price1

bets: 28
staked: 700
settled: 12/17 won
realised: -53
open (11) sold: +4
open (11) held: +12
return sold: -7%
return held: -6%

codex-swingoff

no fills

Exit policy for codex-open positions.

disabled in this version's config

event-makeroff

no fills

Quotes both sides of busy event markets and collects the spread.

disabled in this version's config

numeric-tailshadow

no fills

Buys the lowest bucket of a new numeric or date market.

enabled; this version does not report per-sweep counts

xvenue-jumplive

no fills

When a real-money twin on Kalshi or Polymarket jumps 10+ points, carries the move onto the Manifold mirror.

enabled; this version does not report per-sweep counts

Trades of v9

when	module	market	bet	result	why
08-29 00:28	close-fav	Leader of the GC after stage 9 to be the winner of La Vuelta a España	YES 25	settled +2	favorite band 0.90-0.97 within 24h of close resolves YES 99%
08-29 00:25	whale-fade	Will Dan Sullivan win re-election to Alaska's Senate seat in 2026?	NO 25	open +4	fade: single 100-mana YES bet pushed 0.35->0.42; big YES aggression is overconfident on average
08-28 21:27	close-fav	Will the U3O8 spot price exceed $60 per pound on August 29, 2026?	YES 25	open +1	favorite band 0.90-0.97 within 24h of close resolves YES 99%
08-28 21:27	close-fav	Will the U3O8 spot price exceed $50 per pound on August 29, 2026?	YES 25	open +1	favorite band 0.90-0.97 within 24h of close resolves YES 99%
08-28 21:27	close-fav	Will the U3O8 spot price exceed $40 per pound on August 29, 2026?	YES 25	open +1	favorite band 0.90-0.97 within 24h of close resolves YES 99%
08-28 21:02	codex-open	Will The Odyssey ever surpass Spider-Man: Brand New Day in daily domestic	YES 100	settled +119	luna-medium price-blind says 1.00 vs market 0.43 (edge +0.57 >= 0.3): The YES condition has already occurred: on August 26, Box Office Mojo reported official domestic actuals of $8,110,460 for The Odyssey versus $3,147,879 for Spider-Man: Brand New Day. Both films were still in their initial theatri
08-28 20:32	whale-fade	Will Mitch McConnell speak this year?	NO 25	settled -25	fade: single 500-mana YES bet pushed 0.62->0.76; big YES aggression is overconfident on average
08-28 19:08	open-snipe	September 2026 the hottest ever?	NO 9	open +5	virgin market: cell [other\|mid\|<45d\|sm] historically resolves YES 0.41 vs creator open 0.50
08-28 18:27	close-fav	Will the reduction in global lithium supply due to Zimbabwe export ban exc	YES 25	open +0	favorite band 0.90-0.97 within 24h of close resolves YES 99%
08-28 17:27	park-no	EPL: Will Tottenham Hotspur beat Newcastle United?	NO 25	settled +17	parking idle float: book stale 31% of life at 60% elapsed, price 0.40 leans NO (+6-8% both eras)
08-28 15:54	open-snipe	Will Fulham beat Crystal Palace?	YES 10	settled -10	virgin market: cell [other\|mid\|<10d\|sm] historically resolves YES 0.55 vs creator open 0.44
08-28 15:26	close-fav	Will the S&P 500 close above 7,700 on Friday?	YES 25	settled +1	favorite band 0.90-0.97 within 24h of close resolves YES 99%
08-28 15:17	open-snipe	EPL: Tottenham Hotspur (Draw No Bet) vs. Nottingham Forest – Premier Leagu	NO 0	cancelled	virgin market: cell [sports\|mid\|<10d\|sm] historically resolves YES 0.45 vs creator open 0.56
08-28 14:59	open-snipe	EPL: Newcastle United (Draw No Bet) vs. AFC Bournemouth – Premier League (	NO 0	cancelled	virgin market: cell [sports\|mid\|<10d\|sm] historically resolves YES 0.45 vs creator open 0.55
08-28 14:56	park-no	Will my trend weight be above 197.7 lb on September 9?	NO 25	settled -25	parking idle float: book stale 29% of life at 60% elapsed, price 0.33 leans NO (+6-8% both eras)
08-28 14:13	open-snipe	Will Anthropic extend the Claude Code 50% limit boost before September?	YES 100	settled +162	virgin market: cell [ai\|mid\|<10d\|lg] historically resolves YES 0.49 vs creator open 0.35
08-28 13:13	whale-fade	Week 2 EPL- Crystal Palace vs Manchester City (August 28 2026) Will Manche	NO 25	settled -25	fade: single 150-mana YES bet pushed 0.57->0.63; big YES aggression is overconfident on average
08-28 12:02	whale-fade	The Greens receive at least 5% and enter the Saxony-Anhalt Landtag	NO 25	settled -25	fade: single 300-mana YES bet pushed 0.52->0.63; big YES aggression is overconfident on average
08-28 11:52	whale-fade	Week 2 EPL- Crystal Palace vs Manchester City (August 28 2026) Will Manche	NO 25	settled -25	fade: single 120-mana YES bet pushed 0.53->0.59; big YES aggression is overconfident on average
08-28 11:20	whale-fade	Will we get AGI before 2029?	NO 25	open -1	fade: single 100-mana YES bet pushed 0.32->0.39; big YES aggression is overconfident on average
08-28 09:14	open-snipe	Will China intervene and offer Iran nuclear power plants, ending the war,	NO 15	open +12	virgin market: cell [geopolitics\|mid\|>=45d\|sm] historically resolves YES 0.28 vs creator open 0.50
08-28 08:51	whale-fade	Will I pay any money to Manifold during 2026 for something in the site?	NO 25	open +31	fade: single 100-mana YES bet pushed 0.25->0.71; big YES aggression is overconfident on average
08-28 07:55	park-no	Will the silver spot price be above $75 USD on September 1st?	NO 25	settled +9	parking idle float: book stale 51% of life at 60% elapsed, price 0.27 leans NO (+6-8% both eras)
08-28 06:27	whale-fade	Robot assembles IKEA furniture using printed instructions, before 2030?	NO 25	open -1	fade: single 100-mana YES bet pushed 0.42->0.47; big YES aggression is overconfident on average
08-28 06:27	whale-fade	Will the leader of a nonwestern nuclear power make an extremely ASI-pilled	NO 25	open -6	fade: single 200-mana YES bet pushed 0.57->0.65; big YES aggression is overconfident on average
08-28 03:54	park-no	Was the Hawk fire in Reno Nevada started intentionally?	NO 25	open -3	parking idle float: book stale 38% of life at 60% elapsed, price 0.28 leans NO (+6-8% both eras)
08-28 02:27	mc-indep	What will win at the 2026 Thinky Game awards? ×10 answers	NO 40	open +6	independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
08-28 02:18	mc-other	What will be nominated for Game of the Year at the 2026 Indie Game Awards?	NO 9	open -1	sum-to-one Other answers priced >=0.20 resolve ~10-21%% historically; open 0.20 -> target 0.12

Showing the newest 28 of 246 trades (327 bets); each module page carries its whole book.

The lineage

version	mana	status · window	bets	staked	realised	open held	open sold	per day
v89	real	live in prod 2026-09-19 16:42Z → running	221	5,709	+338	+386	-116	+242.3
v88	real	retired, book still settling 2026-09-03 13:36Z → 2026-09-19 16:42Z	1117	30,685	+928	+4016	+1235	+306.5
v81	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-30 09:55Z → 2026-09-03 13:36Z	393	13,334	+1646	+760	+5	+579.2
v80	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 19:42Z → 2026-08-30 09:55Z	26	595	+7	-1	-6	+11.3
v78	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 17:15Z → 2026-08-29 19:28Z	11	411	+25	-47	-71	-242.6
v77	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 16:03Z → 2026-08-29 17:15Z	5	247	-18	-32	-52	-985.7
v77	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 16:03Z → 2026-08-29 17:15Z	5	247	-18	-32	-52	-985.7
v76	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 15:27Z → 2026-08-29 16:02Z	10	298	+320	+0	+0	+13115.0
v75	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 13:01Z → 2026-08-29 15:27Z	13	218	+149	+0	+0	+1479.0
v74	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 10:35Z → 2026-08-29 13:01Z	12	128	+23	-14	-22	+89.3
v73	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 10:24Z → 2026-08-29 10:35Z	10	250	+3	+2	+1	+616.5
v72	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 10:12Z → 2026-08-29 10:24Z	5	125	+2	+1	+1	+343.1
v71	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 10:03Z → 2026-08-29 10:12Z	5	125	+2	+2	+2	+553.2
v70	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 06:12Z → 2026-08-29 10:03Z	9	150	-9	+8	+8	-3.0
v67	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-28 07:38Z → 2026-08-29 06:12Z	27	475	-108	+40	+21	-72.3
v66	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-28 06:43Z → 2026-08-28 07:38Z	2	50	+1	+0	-0	+36.5
v65	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-27 19:48Z → 2026-08-28 06:43Z	18	253	+340	+3	-3	+753.4
v64	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-27 10:06Z → 2026-08-27 19:48Z	9	227	+36	-64	-72	-69.3
v63	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-27 08:12Z → 2026-08-27 10:06Z	3	75	+5	-3	-5	+36.5
v62	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-27 07:18Z → 2026-08-27 08:12Z	3	69	+5	+3	+2	+224.9
v89-twin	paper	evaluating 2026-09-19 16:43Z → running	196	3,632	+191	+1131	+520	+442.7
codex-paper	paper	retired: window-complete 2026-08-22 19:49Z → 2026-08-22 19:49Z	1	40	+0	+13	+4	-
v88-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-09-03 16:10Z → 2026-09-19 12:21Z	1412	26,687	+1027	+5778	+2442	+429.6
v87	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-09-03 00:02Z → 2026-09-03 15:21Z	54	952	-375	+95	-2	-438.5
v86	paper	retired: window-complete 2026-09-02 13:27Z → 2026-09-09 15:32Z	539	13,928	+1183	+3446	+1059	+653.2
v85	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-09-02 10:16Z → 2026-09-02 13:08Z	21	849	+775	+114	-7	+7461.3
v84	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-09-02 02:00Z → 2026-09-02 08:22Z	46	350	-40	+42	+18	+5.7
v83	paper	retired: window-complete 2026-09-01 10:09Z → 2026-09-08 03:32Z	646	11,605	+727	+2860	+835	+533.5
v82	paper	retired: window-complete 2026-08-30 22:07Z → 2026-09-01 09:44Z	177	3,963	+247	+167	-2	+279.2
v80-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-29 22:05Z → 2026-08-30 07:42Z	28	650	+61	+43	+20	+259.9
v77-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-29 16:04Z → 2026-08-29 17:52Z	15	400	-116	+170	+54	+723.9
v75-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-29 13:31Z → 2026-08-29 15:38Z	16	474	-200	+35	-4	-1880.5
v72-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-29 10:14Z → 2026-08-29 12:19Z	11	250	+26	+20	+5	+532.6
v70-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-29 08:17Z → 2026-08-29 08:29Z	6	140	+2	+8	+8	+1241.1
v68	paper	retired: window-complete 2026-08-28 13:52Z → 2026-08-30 18:48Z	73	2,211	+410	+330	+249	+335.1
v67-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-28 08:16Z → 2026-08-29 07:19Z	32	792	+239	+112	+80	+365.9
v65-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-27 20:15Z → 2026-08-28 02:27Z	17	238	-57	+16	+10	-159.6
v64-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-27 10:07Z → 2026-08-27 20:07Z	13	334	+34	-51	-58	-41.4
v63-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-27 08:14Z → 2026-08-27 08:18Z	5	347	+3	+22	+5	+11001.8
v62-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-27 07:20Z → 2026-08-27 07:48Z	6	310	+3	+24	+13	+1336.9
v60-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-27 10:06Z → 2026-08-27 10:06Z	2	50	+3	+0	+0	+109728.0
v59-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 20:46Z → 2026-08-26 20:46Z	3	84	+0	+11	+1	+460637.2
v58-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 12:59Z → 2026-08-26 19:49Z	13	391	-67	+13	-11	-190.2
v57-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 12:24Z → 2026-08-26 12:51Z	2	8	+0	+12	+4	+626.0
v56-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 12:01Z → 2026-08-26 12:10Z	3	110	+0	+75	+49	+11809.4
v55-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 11:41Z → 2026-08-26 11:59Z	5	101	+1	+78	+55	+6374.5
v53-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 10:58Z → 2026-08-26 11:04Z	4	70	+22	+5	-2	+6307.7
v50-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 10:03Z → 2026-08-26 10:33Z	5	121	+34	+28	+21	+2885.8
v45	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 20:32Z → 2026-08-25 21:04Z	8	605	-86	+8	-41	-3429.4
v44	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 20:28Z → 2026-08-25 20:31Z	7	365	+15	-6	-32	+5636.0
v41	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 14:46Z → 2026-08-25 17:58Z	9	656	-481	+3	-5	-3573.8
v39	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 12:44Z → 2026-08-25 13:31Z	1	100	-100	+0	+0	-3092.3
v38	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 12:18Z → 2026-08-25 12:41Z	3	212	-12	+27	+15	+973.2
v37	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 09:45Z → 2026-08-25 09:45Z	1	28	+0	+14	+12	+37215.2
v35	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 08:50Z → 2026-08-25 08:59Z	6	184	+57	+29	+23	+14065.5
v34	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 08:46Z → 2026-08-25 08:47Z	1	131	+57	+0	+0	+258245.1
v20	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-24 13:39Z → 2026-08-24 14:34Z	3	203	-10	+94	+90	+2187.4
v16	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-24 12:42Z → 2026-08-24 13:15Z	15	375	-96	+4	+0	-4042.7
v15	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-24 12:38Z → 2026-08-24 12:39Z	9	250	-77	-26	-26	-111952.5
v14	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-24 12:35Z → 2026-08-24 12:36Z	7	222	-74	-4	-4	-86088.4
v13	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-24 12:31Z → 2026-08-24 12:32Z	8	227	-71	-4	-4	-87939.7
v12	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-24 12:16Z → 2026-08-24 12:17Z	8	222	-67	-4	-4	-92033.7
v11	paper	retired: window-complete 2026-08-23 20:07Z → 2026-08-30 04:03Z	359	10,830	+1707	+1482	+487	+503.8
v10	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-23 08:06Z → 2026-08-23 20:03Z	30	907	+216	+257	+189	+951.2
v9	paper	retired: window-complete 2026-08-22 20:03Z → 2026-08-29 00:28Z	327	7,435	+2028	+972	+410	+485.1
v8	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-22 17:52Z → 2026-08-22 19:52Z	16	400	+76	+8	+3	+1010.6
v7	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-22 08:16Z → 2026-08-22 17:06Z	6	120	+96	+95	+33	+518.9

Evaluation

Modules of v9

Trades of v9

The lineage