A brand-new market has exactly one price in it, and that price is whatever its creator picked. Markets of the same shape — same topic, same opening price, same horizon, same ante — have a resolution rate the venue has already revealed. When that history and the creator's price disagree by more than 8%, this module bets 50% of the way from the price toward the history. It only works on markets nobody has traded yet, so its real competitor is not a price — it is everyone else who got there first. It is running in shadow in this version: every bet below is paper, judged like a real one but never sent.
Every market in the second column cleared this module's rules and was lost to whoever arrived sooner. That is the only bucket here that represents money left on the table. Markets already traded when we first looked never reached the rules at all, so they are counted apart; the rest are markets it did not want.
Dark tick is the creator's opening price; coloured tick is what the history said — on a decline, the rate markets of this shape resolve at; on a bet, the price this module moved it toward. The bar between them is the edge, and its colour is the side of the bet — warm toward YES, cool toward NO. Rows marked bet are the journal's; the rest are traces.
| utc | version | market | bet | result | why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-02 16:46 | v83 | Will Gavin Newsom veto the "Plug and Play" solar bill SB 868 | NO 7 | open +2 | virgin market: cell [politics|mid|<45d|sm] historically resolves YES 0.42 vs creator open 0.50 |
| 09-01 19:18 | v83 | If Fable 5.1 is listed on arena.ai on September 14th will it have a higher agent arena score than Fable 5? | NO 0 | unfilled | virgin market: cell [ai|mid|<45d|sm] historically resolves YES 0.36 vs creator open 0.50 |
| 09-01 15:28 | v83 | Will the address for math.eg.rego.re have a balance of more than $100 before Sep 8? | YES 100 | settled -100 | virgin market: cell [other|mid|<10d|lg] historically resolves YES 0.52 vs creator open 0.40 |
| 09-01 15:25 | v83 | Will the address for math.eg.rego.re have a balance of more than $100 before Sep 8? | YES 14 | cancelled | virgin market: cell [other|lo|<10d|lg] historically resolves YES 0.36 vs creator open 0.05 |
| 09-01 10:13 | v83 | Leader of the GC after stage 18 to be the winner of La Vuelta a España | NO 8 | settled -8 | virgin market: cell [other|hi|<10d|sm] historically resolves YES 0.58 vs creator open 0.70 |
5 trades, 129 staked, realised -108, open +3 if held / +2 if sold, 1 unfilled.
Of 0 markets judged in the traces on hand,
5 cleared every rule and 5 were reached before
anyone else, for 129 mana. Of those, 2 settled for -108. Losing a market
to a faster participant is not a rejection and is counted separately
from one.
Traces are diagnostic and rotate; the trading journal is the book above.
Built 2026-09-22 18:01Z.