numeric‑tail

module 1.0 · v83 ← trader

A numeric or date market is a histogram sharing one book: "how many" or "when". This module has one opinion about them, and it is about shape — the lowest bucket is systematically overpriced, because it is listed first and early traders anchor on it. It wants at least 3 buckets and a first bucket priced between 0.02 and 0.95.

The shape it read

No numeric market judged yet.

Where candidates died · 0 markets judged

Nothing judged yet.

The book · v83

utcversionmarketbetresultwhy
09-06 10:25v83How many seats will BJP win in the 2027 Manipur Assembly election? :: 0 - 19YES 5open -0lowest numeric bucket cheap at open (+20.6/100 pooled n=647); open 0.20
09-06 10:20v83How many seats will BJP win in the 2027 Goa Assembly election? :: 0 - 17YES 5open -0lowest numeric bucket cheap at open (+20.6/100 pooled n=647); open 0.20
09-06 10:15v83How many seats will BJP win in the 2027 Uttarakhand Assembly election? :: 0 - 29YES 5open -0lowest numeric bucket cheap at open (+20.6/100 pooled n=647); open 0.20
09-06 10:08v83How many seats will AAP win in the 2027 Punjab Assembly election? :: 0 - 39YES 5open -0lowest numeric bucket cheap at open (+20.6/100 pooled n=647); open 0.20
09-06 03:55v83When will Madoka Magica: Walpurgis no Kaiten be officially released in the United States? :: Before Oct 2026YES 4open -3lowest numeric bucket cheap at open (+20.6/100 pooled n=647); open 0.50
09-04 11:21v83When will Isar Aerospace launch their spectrum rocket? :: Before Oct 2026YES 5settled +4lowest numeric bucket cheap at open (+20.6/100 pooled n=647); open 0.50

6 trades, 30 staked, realised +4, open -0 if held / -4 if sold.

6 markets bet (6 journal rows) for 30 mana; realised +4 on 1 settled. Where a market's full bucket list was not recorded, the shape is drawn from the first bucket alone and the rest is filler — said on the card rather than implied by a chart that looks complete.
Traces are diagnostic and rotate; the trading journal is the book above. Built 2026-09-22 17:56Z.