trader-agent v89-twin

Evaluation

v89-twinpaper window 2026-09-19 16:47Z → now, 3.0 d resolved 15 / 40 evaluating

sim

+146.2 /day prod, same window

+258.1 /day

HOLD noise floor ±92.4/day (5 pts of prod stake) · markets bet by both 64

window 3.0d < 7d
resolved 15 < 40
sim earns +146.2 mana/day (de-scaled /1) vs prod +258.1, beyond the 5.0pt-of-stake noise floor (92.4/day)

Modules of v89-twin

Own trades and own declines only; each module's page has the reasoning.

codex-openlive

+396 / +739

A price-blind language-model estimate on each new market; bets only when it disagrees with the price by more than the configured edge.

0bets by entry price1

bets: 42
staked: 1,632
settled: 1/1 won
realised: +27
open (35) sold: +369
open (35) held: +711
return sold: +24%
return held: +45%
booked off probe: 2

whale-fadelive

+206 / +452

A single 100+ mana YES bet that pushes a mid-life market up 5+ points is overconfident on average; fades it.

0bets by entry price1

bets: 37
staked: 1,196
settled: 1/1 won
realised: +21
open (10) sold: +185
open (10) held: +432
return sold: +17%
return held: +38%
booked off probe: 6

close-longlive

+110 / +110

Longshots at 0.03-0.15 inside 24h of close resolve NO about 95% of the time.

0bets by entry price1

bets: 7
staked: 175
settled: 6/6 won
realised: +110
open (1) sold: +0
open (1) held: +0
return sold: +63%
return held: +63%

open-snipelive

+12 / +28

Bets a brand-new untraded market from its opening price toward the historical resolution rate of its cell (type x price x horizon x ante).

0bets by entry price1

bets: 42
staked: 244
settled: 1/1 won
realised: +19
open (35) sold: -7
open (35) held: +10
return sold: +5%
return held: +12%

close-favlive

+11 / +11

Favourites at 0.90-0.97 inside 24h of close resolve YES about 99% of the time.

0bets by entry price1

bets: 6
staked: 145
settled: 3/3 won
realised: +11
open (3) sold: +0
open (3) held: +1
return sold: +8%
return held: +8%

mc-indeplive

+8 / +10

Independent multiple-choice answers listed at creation resolve YES far less often than their 0.50 opens imply.

0bets by entry price1

bets: 43
staked: 45
settled: none settled yet
realised: +0
open (15) sold: +8
open (15) held: +10
return sold: +18%
return held: +22%

down-fade

-32 / -27

0bets by entry price1

bets: 19
staked: 195
settled: 1/1 won
realised: +4
open (9) sold: -36
open (9) held: -32
return sold: -16%
return held: -14%

codex-swingoff

no fills

Exit policy for codex-open positions.

disabled in this version's config

event-makeroff

no fills

Quotes both sides of busy event markets and collects the spread.

disabled in this version's config

mc-otherlive

no fills

The catch-all 'Other' answer in winner-take-all markets is overpriced above 0.20; buys NO toward 0.12.

judged 297 markets, placed nothing

numeric-tailshadow

no fills

Buys the lowest bucket of a new numeric or date market.

judged 297 markets, placed nothing

park-nolive

no fills

Parks idle mana as NO in stale mid-priced books instead of leaving it in cash.

judged 144 markets, placed nothing

Trades of v89-twin

when	module	market	bet	result	why
09-22 15:58	whale-fade		NO 0	unfilled	fade (blind, verify after): single 300-mana YES bet pushed 0.49->0.67; market not in cache
09-22 15:05	codex-open	Will the term Super Intelligents replace Artificial intelligence before EO	NO 0	unfilled	luna-medium price-blind says 0.12 vs market 0.43 (edge -0.31 >= 0.2): The literal term has negligible current usage and no exact resolver is specified, so despite ambiguity lifting the estimate above the ~0.5% terminology-replacement base rate, YES remains unlikely.
09-22 15:04	open-snipe	Will the term Super Intelligents replace Artificial intelligence before EO	NO 4	open +1	virgin market: cell [other\|mid\|>=45d\|sm] historically resolves YES 0.33 vs creator open 0.50
09-22 14:45	codex-open	UK Autumn Budget 2026: will a £2 bus fare cap be funded beyond the end of	YES 20	open +7	luna-medium price-blind says 0.58 vs market 0.25 (edge +0.33 >= 0.2): A 50% historical renewal base rate is nudged upward by the government's current cost-of-living and £2-cap commitment, but fiscal pressure and the explicit one-year funding horizon keep YES below high confidence.
09-22 14:43	codex-open	UK Autumn Budget 2026: will the Energy Profits Levy be raised or extended?	YES 17	open +9	luna-medium price-blind says 0.58 vs market 0.35 (edge +0.23 >= 0.2): Base rate is about 75% (3 of the last 4 UK Budgets introduced, raised, extended, or replaced an oil-and-gas windfall tax); rules make the key ambiguity whether HMT confirms the already-announced Oil and Gas Revenue Levy, sentiment is secondary, the scheduled event is the 28 October 2026 Budget, and the resolver is HMT’s Budget-day documents and speech, with no matching witness market found ([HMT levy policy](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/oil-and-gas-taxation-oil-and-gas-revenue-levy), [Budget date](https://www.gov.uk/government/news/budget-to-move-power-and-money-out-of-westminster-and-into-every-postcode-around-britain)).
09-22 14:43	whale-fade	Paramount Skydance acquires Warner Brothers Discovery before 10/31/2026	NO 0	unfilled	fade: single 200-mana YES bet pushed 0.35->0.47; big YES aggression is overconfident on average
09-22 14:42	codex-open	UK Autumn Budget 2026: will a new first-time buyer ISA replace the Lifetim	YES 49	open +16	luna-medium price-blind says 0.90 vs market 0.35 (edge +0.55 >= 0.2): Base rate: 2/2 recent UK first-time-buyer ISA launches followed through after Budget announcement; the rules exclude consultation alone, but HMT’s consultation explicitly says the new product will replace the Lifetime ISA, the scheduled Budget is 28 October 2026, and the exact resolver is that day’s HMT Budget documents, with no matching market witness found: https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/first-time-buyer-isa-consultation
09-22 14:34	codex-open	UK Autumn Budget 2026: will the 'mansion tax' threshold be set below £2 mi	YES 15	open -0	luna-medium price-blind says 0.55 vs market 0.35 (edge +0.20 >= 0.2): Base rate is 0 of 1 comparable prior Budget announcements lowering this newly introduced threshold; the 18 September report of a live £1.5m discussion raises it, but political and implementation risks keep it near even odds, with the decisive resolver being HM Treasury’s Budget speech/documents on 28 October 2026 and consultations alone counting NO.
09-22 14:33	codex-open	UK Autumn Budget 2026: will it freeze fuel duty or cancel a scheduled rise	YES 41	open -0	luna-medium price-blind says 0.88 vs market 0.64 (edge +0.24 >= 0.2): The base rate is unusually favorable and HM Treasury has already announced no fuel-duty rise in 2026, making Budget-document confirmation of a negative 2027-28 impact likely despite the non-equivalent Polymarket witness.
09-22 14:33	open-snipe	Will PolicyEngine publish its UK Autumn Budget analysis by 07:00 GMT on 29	NO 0	open -0	virgin market: cell [other\|mid\|<45d\|sm] historically resolves YES 0.41 vs creator open 0.60
09-22 14:33	open-snipe	Will the Commons Library's Autumn Budget 2026 reaction briefing cite Polic	YES 5	open +1	virgin market: cell [other\|lo\|>=45d\|sm] historically resolves YES 0.23 vs creator open 0.12
09-22 14:33	open-snipe	UK Autumn Budget 2026: will 0% VAT on home electricity be extended past Ma	NO 0	open -0	virgin market: cell [other\|mid\|<45d\|sm] historically resolves YES 0.41 vs creator open 0.60
09-22 14:33	open-snipe	UK Autumn Budget 2026: will the pension tax-free lump sum be cut or capped	YES 1	open -0	virgin market: cell [other\|lo\|<45d\|sm] historically resolves YES 0.29 vs creator open 0.12
09-22 14:33	open-snipe	UK Autumn Budget 2026: will any working-age benefit be cut or uprated belo	YES 1	open +0	virgin market: cell [other\|lo\|<45d\|sm] historically resolves YES 0.29 vs creator open 0.20
09-22 14:32	open-snipe	UK Autumn Budget 2026: will a land value tax be announced?	YES 7	open -0	virgin market: cell [other\|lo\|<45d\|sm] historically resolves YES 0.29 vs creator open 0.06
09-22 14:32	open-snipe	UK Autumn Budget 2026: will NICs be extended to rental, investment or pens	YES 0	unfilled	virgin market: cell [other\|lo\|<45d\|sm] historically resolves YES 0.29 vs creator open 0.07
09-22 14:32	open-snipe	UK Autumn Budget 2026: will employer NICs be cut or the secondary threshol	YES 0	unfilled	virgin market: cell [other\|lo\|<45d\|sm] historically resolves YES 0.29 vs creator open 0.15
09-22 14:32	open-snipe	UK Autumn Budget 2026: will CGT rates be fully aligned with income tax rat	YES 0	open +0	virgin market: cell [other\|lo\|<45d\|sm] historically resolves YES 0.29 vs creator open 0.10
09-22 14:32	open-snipe	UK Autumn Budget 2026: will it freeze fuel duty or cancel a scheduled rise	NO 19	open -0	virgin market: cell [other\|mid\|<45d\|sm] historically resolves YES 0.41 vs creator open 0.65
09-22 14:32	open-snipe	UK Autumn Budget 2026: will the CGT uplift on death be abolished or restri	YES 1	open -0	virgin market: cell [other\|lo\|<45d\|sm] historically resolves YES 0.29 vs creator open 0.12
09-22 14:32	open-snipe	UK Autumn Budget 2026: will any main capital gains tax rate rise?	NO 0	open -0	virgin market: cell [other\|mid\|<45d\|sm] historically resolves YES 0.41 vs creator open 0.58
09-22 13:52	codex-open	Who will win the 2026 League of Legends World Championship? ×4 answers	YES 189	open +65	luna-medium price-blind says 0.18 vs answer 0.06 (edge +0.12 >= 0.1): Base rate is 1/19 = 5.3% for an equal-field team; rules clearly mean the tournament winner, HLE won MSI but lost the LCK final 1-3 to Gen.G, the only material scheduled event is Worlds (Oct 15–Nov 14), Riot’s LoL Esports standings page is the resolver, and the matching outright Polymarket witness was 18.5% (thin liquidity), so I estimate 18%.
09-22 12:08	close-fav	Will the address for math.eg.rego.re have a balance of more than $25 befor	YES 25	open +0	favorite band 0.90-0.97 within 24h of close resolves YES 99%
09-22 10:14	whale-fade	Will a millennium problem be solved in 2027?	NO 85	open -13	fade: single 50-mana YES bet pushed 0.55->0.72; big YES aggression is overconfident on average
09-22 09:38	down-fade		YES 0	unfilled	down-fade (blind, verify after): single 500-mana NO bet pushed 0.40->0.25; market not in cache
09-22 08:42	whale-fade	Will GitHub support SHA256 Git repositories in 2026?	NO 0	unfilled	fade: single 50-mana YES bet pushed 0.23->0.52; big YES aggression is overconfident on average
09-22 08:38	whale-fade	Will Hakeem Jeffries be Speaker following the 2026 Election?	NO 0	unfilled	fade: single 350-mana YES bet pushed 0.65->0.80; big YES aggression is overconfident on average
09-22 08:38	close-long	Japan vs India T20 cricket match	NO 25	settled +50	longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%

Showing the newest 28 of 142 trades (196 bets); each module page carries its whole book.

The lineage

version	mana	status · window	bets	staked	realised	open held	open sold	per day
v89	real	live in prod 2026-09-19 16:42Z → running	221	5,709	+338	+386	-116	+242.0
v88	real	retired, book still settling 2026-09-03 13:36Z → 2026-09-19 16:42Z	1117	30,685	+928	+4016	+1235	+306.5
v81	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-30 09:55Z → 2026-09-03 13:36Z	393	13,334	+1646	+760	+5	+579.2
v80	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 19:42Z → 2026-08-30 09:55Z	26	595	+7	-1	-6	+11.3
v78	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 17:15Z → 2026-08-29 19:28Z	11	411	+25	-47	-71	-242.6
v77	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 16:03Z → 2026-08-29 17:15Z	5	247	-18	-32	-52	-985.7
v77	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 16:03Z → 2026-08-29 17:15Z	5	247	-18	-32	-52	-985.7
v76	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 15:27Z → 2026-08-29 16:02Z	10	298	+320	+0	+0	+13115.0
v75	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 13:01Z → 2026-08-29 15:27Z	13	218	+149	+0	+0	+1479.0
v74	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 10:35Z → 2026-08-29 13:01Z	12	128	+23	-14	-22	+89.3
v73	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 10:24Z → 2026-08-29 10:35Z	10	250	+3	+2	+1	+616.5
v72	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 10:12Z → 2026-08-29 10:24Z	5	125	+2	+1	+1	+343.1
v71	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 10:03Z → 2026-08-29 10:12Z	5	125	+2	+2	+2	+553.2
v70	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 06:12Z → 2026-08-29 10:03Z	9	150	-9	+8	+8	-3.0
v67	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-28 07:38Z → 2026-08-29 06:12Z	27	475	-108	+40	+21	-72.3
v66	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-28 06:43Z → 2026-08-28 07:38Z	2	50	+1	+0	-0	+36.5
v65	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-27 19:48Z → 2026-08-28 06:43Z	18	253	+340	+3	-3	+753.4
v64	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-27 10:06Z → 2026-08-27 19:48Z	9	227	+36	-64	-72	-69.3
v63	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-27 08:12Z → 2026-08-27 10:06Z	3	75	+5	-3	-5	+36.5
v62	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-27 07:18Z → 2026-08-27 08:12Z	3	69	+5	+3	+2	+224.9
v89-twin	paper	evaluating 2026-09-19 16:43Z → running	196	3,632	+191	+1131	+520	+442.2
codex-paper	paper	retired: window-complete 2026-08-22 19:49Z → 2026-08-22 19:49Z	1	40	+0	+13	+4	-
v88-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-09-03 16:10Z → 2026-09-19 12:21Z	1412	26,687	+1027	+5778	+2442	+429.6
v87	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-09-03 00:02Z → 2026-09-03 15:21Z	54	952	-375	+95	-2	-438.5
v86	paper	retired: window-complete 2026-09-02 13:27Z → 2026-09-09 15:32Z	539	13,928	+1183	+3446	+1059	+653.2
v85	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-09-02 10:16Z → 2026-09-02 13:08Z	21	849	+775	+114	-7	+7461.3
v84	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-09-02 02:00Z → 2026-09-02 08:22Z	46	350	-40	+42	+18	+5.7
v83	paper	retired: window-complete 2026-09-01 10:09Z → 2026-09-08 03:32Z	646	11,605	+727	+2860	+835	+533.5
v82	paper	retired: window-complete 2026-08-30 22:07Z → 2026-09-01 09:44Z	177	3,963	+247	+167	-2	+279.2
v80-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-29 22:05Z → 2026-08-30 07:42Z	28	650	+61	+43	+20	+259.9
v77-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-29 16:04Z → 2026-08-29 17:52Z	15	400	-116	+170	+54	+723.9
v75-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-29 13:31Z → 2026-08-29 15:38Z	16	474	-200	+35	-4	-1880.5
v72-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-29 10:14Z → 2026-08-29 12:19Z	11	250	+26	+20	+5	+532.6
v70-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-29 08:17Z → 2026-08-29 08:29Z	6	140	+2	+8	+8	+1241.1
v68	paper	retired: window-complete 2026-08-28 13:52Z → 2026-08-30 18:48Z	73	2,211	+410	+330	+249	+335.1
v67-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-28 08:16Z → 2026-08-29 07:19Z	32	792	+239	+112	+80	+365.9
v65-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-27 20:15Z → 2026-08-28 02:27Z	17	238	-57	+16	+10	-159.6
v64-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-27 10:07Z → 2026-08-27 20:07Z	13	334	+34	-51	-58	-41.4
v63-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-27 08:14Z → 2026-08-27 08:18Z	5	347	+3	+22	+5	+11001.8
v62-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-27 07:20Z → 2026-08-27 07:48Z	6	310	+3	+24	+13	+1336.9
v60-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-27 10:06Z → 2026-08-27 10:06Z	2	50	+3	+0	+0	+109728.0
v59-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 20:46Z → 2026-08-26 20:46Z	3	84	+0	+11	+1	+460637.2
v58-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 12:59Z → 2026-08-26 19:49Z	13	391	-67	+13	-11	-190.2
v57-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 12:24Z → 2026-08-26 12:51Z	2	8	+0	+12	+4	+626.0
v56-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 12:01Z → 2026-08-26 12:10Z	3	110	+0	+75	+49	+11809.4
v55-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 11:41Z → 2026-08-26 11:59Z	5	101	+1	+78	+55	+6374.5
v53-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 10:58Z → 2026-08-26 11:04Z	4	70	+22	+5	-2	+6307.7
v50-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 10:03Z → 2026-08-26 10:33Z	5	121	+34	+28	+21	+2885.8
v45	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 20:32Z → 2026-08-25 21:04Z	8	605	-86	+8	-41	-3429.4
v44	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 20:28Z → 2026-08-25 20:31Z	7	365	+15	-6	-32	+5636.0
v41	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 14:46Z → 2026-08-25 17:58Z	9	656	-481	+3	-5	-3573.8
v39	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 12:44Z → 2026-08-25 13:31Z	1	100	-100	+0	+0	-3092.3
v38	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 12:18Z → 2026-08-25 12:41Z	3	212	-12	+27	+15	+973.2
v37	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 09:45Z → 2026-08-25 09:45Z	1	28	+0	+14	+12	+37215.2
v35	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 08:50Z → 2026-08-25 08:59Z	6	184	+57	+29	+23	+14065.5
v34	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 08:46Z → 2026-08-25 08:47Z	1	131	+57	+0	+0	+258245.1
v20	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-24 13:39Z → 2026-08-24 14:34Z	3	203	-10	+94	+90	+2187.4
v16	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-24 12:42Z → 2026-08-24 13:15Z	15	375	-96	+4	+0	-4042.7
v15	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-24 12:38Z → 2026-08-24 12:39Z	9	250	-77	-26	-26	-111952.5
v14	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-24 12:35Z → 2026-08-24 12:36Z	7	222	-74	-4	-4	-86088.4
v13	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-24 12:31Z → 2026-08-24 12:32Z	8	227	-71	-4	-4	-87939.7
v12	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-24 12:16Z → 2026-08-24 12:17Z	8	222	-67	-4	-4	-92033.7
v11	paper	retired: window-complete 2026-08-23 20:07Z → 2026-08-30 04:03Z	359	10,830	+1707	+1482	+487	+503.8
v10	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-23 08:06Z → 2026-08-23 20:03Z	30	907	+216	+257	+189	+951.2
v9	paper	retired: window-complete 2026-08-22 20:03Z → 2026-08-29 00:28Z	327	7,435	+2028	+972	+410	+485.1
v8	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-22 17:52Z → 2026-08-22 19:52Z	16	400	+76	+8	+3	+1010.6
v7	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-22 08:16Z → 2026-08-22 17:06Z	6	120	+96	+95	+33	+518.9