trader-agent v84

Evaluation

v84paper window 2026-09-02 02:01Z → now, 0.3 d resolved 0 / 40 retired: superseded-same-day

sim

-12.1 /day prod, same window

+115.9 /day

HOLD noise floor ±114.2/day (5 pts of prod stake) · markets bet by both 11

window 0.3d < 7d
resolved 0 < 40
sim earns -12.1 mana/day (de-scaled /1) vs prod +115.9, beyond the 5.0pt-of-stake noise floor (114.2/day)

Modules of v84

Own trades and own declines only; each module's page has the reasoning.

close-longlive

+6 / +6

Longshots at 0.03-0.15 inside 24h of close resolve NO about 95% of the time.

0bets by entry price1

bets: 4
staked: 100
settled: 3/3 won
realised: +3
open (1) sold: +3
open (1) held: +3
return sold: +6%
return held: +6%

down-fadelive

+6 / +12

0bets by entry price1

bets: 3
staked: 35
settled: none settled yet
realised: +0
open (2) sold: +6
open (2) held: +12
return sold: +16%
return held: +33%

open-snipelive

+1 / +2

Bets a brand-new untraded market from its opening price toward the historical resolution rate of its cell (type x price x horizon x ante).

0bets by entry price1

bets: 2
staked: 12
settled: 1/1 won
realised: +1
open (1) sold: +0
open (1) held: +0
return sold: +11%
return held: +14%

codex-openlive

-0 / +13

A price-blind language-model estimate on each new market; bets only when it disagrees with the price by more than the configured edge.

0bets by entry price1

bets: 4
staked: 28
settled: none settled yet
realised: +0
open (4) sold: +0
open (4) held: +13
return sold: -1%
return held: +47%

whale-fadelive

-9 / -9

A single 100+ mana YES bet that pushes a mid-life market up 5+ points is overconfident on average; fades it.

0bets by entry price1

bets: 7
staked: 90
settled: 0/1 won
realised: -45
open (1) sold: +36
open (1) held: +36
return sold: -10%
return held: -9%

mc-indeplive

-25 / -22

Independent multiple-choice answers listed at creation resolve YES far less often than their 0.50 opens imply.

0bets by entry price1

bets: 26
staked: 85
settled: none settled yet
realised: +0
open (26) sold: -25
open (26) held: -22
return sold: -30%
return held: -26%

codex-swingoff

no fills

Exit policy for codex-open positions.

disabled in this version's config

event-makeroff

no fills

Quotes both sides of busy event markets and collects the spread.

disabled in this version's config

mc-otherlive

no fills

The catch-all 'Other' answer in winner-take-all markets is overpriced above 0.20; buys NO toward 0.12.

judged 130 markets, placed nothing

mc-young-fadelive

no fills

judged 447 markets, placed nothing

numeric-tailshadow

no fills

Buys the lowest bucket of a new numeric or date market.

judged 130 markets, placed nothing

park-nolive

no fills

Parks idle mana as NO in stale mid-priced books instead of leaving it in cash.

judged 17 markets, placed nothing

Trades of v84

when	module	market	bet	result	why
09-02 08:22	open-snipe	Can I Beat minecraft in this month With Hot potato?	NO 10	open -0	virgin market: cell [other\|mid\|<45d\|sm] historically resolves YES 0.41 vs creator open 0.50
09-02 07:58	mc-indep	Which New York House Districts will the Democrats win in the 2026 midterms ×26 answers	NO 85	open -25	independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-02 07:47	down-fade		YES 0	unfilled	down-fade (blind, verify after): single 200-mana NO bet pushed 0.60->0.11; market not in cache
09-02 07:32	close-long	Will Dylan Matthew beat Community Prediction (Metaculus Summer Cup)	NO 25	settled +1	longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
09-02 07:22	whale-fade	Will Brett Smiley win the 2026 Democratic primary for Mayor of Providence?	NO 0	unfilled	fade: single 188-mana YES bet pushed 0.38->0.49; big YES aggression is overconfident on average
09-02 06:48	whale-fade	Will GPT 6 be released by September 15th?	NO 45	settled -45	fade: single 500-mana YES bet pushed 0.22->0.51; big YES aggression is overconfident on average
09-02 05:38	whale-fade	Openai Astra publically available before September 7th 2026	NO 0	unfilled	fade: single 100-mana YES bet pushed 0.79->0.90; big YES aggression is overconfident on average
09-02 05:02	close-long	Will the percentage of wikipedia users who donate at least one time reach	NO 25	open +3	longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
09-02 04:45	whale-fade	Will Waymo One expand its SF Bay Area service area to Marin County by Dece	NO 0	unfilled	fade: single 2250-mana YES bet pushed 0.43->0.55; big YES aggression is overconfident on average
09-02 04:41	whale-fade	Will GPT-6 be released before the end of October 2026?	NO 0	unfilled	fade: single 75-mana YES bet pushed 0.50->0.77; big YES aggression is overconfident on average
09-02 04:30	open-snipe	Am i going to get 5 straight A-s for my first 5 grades?	NO 2	settled +1	virgin market: cell [personal\|mid\|>=45d\|sm] historically resolves YES 0.34 vs creator open 0.50
09-02 04:23	whale-fade	Will tobey maguire die in avengers doomsday?	NO 0	unfilled	fade: single 200-mana YES bet pushed 0.44->0.54; big YES aggression is overconfident on average
09-02 03:55	whale-fade	Will Usopp unlock conquerors Haki on Elbaf?	NO 45	open +36	fade: single 500-mana YES bet pushed 0.30->0.57; big YES aggression is overconfident on average
09-02 03:26	down-fade	Will Joby Aviation start operating any aircraft commercially before the en	YES 18	open -1	down-fade: single 1800-mana NO bet pushed 0.42->0.15; big NO aggression is overconfident on average
09-02 03:00	down-fade	roon (@tszzl) leaves OpenAI before July 2027?	YES 18	open +7	down-fade: single 100-mana NO bet pushed 0.62->0.24; big NO aggression is overconfident on average
09-02 02:43	codex-open	Which Red Party Event will happen next in a five eyes country? ×4 answers	YES 28	open -0	luna-medium price-blind says 0.28 vs answer 0.09 (edge +0.19 >= 0.1): Carney is likely to leave by 2032, but New Zealand’s scheduled November 2026 election and other Five Eyes Labour changes are more likely to produce the next qualifying event first.
09-02 02:01	close-long	WPlace Colors vs Void: Which side will win?	NO 25	settled +1	longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
09-02 02:01	close-long	Will Julian Alvarez be sold to Barcelona by the end of the summer transfer	NO 25	settled +1	longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%

The lineage

version	mana	status · window	bets	staked	realised	open held	open sold	per day
v89	real	live in prod 2026-09-19 16:42Z → running	221	5,709	+338	+386	-116	+242.3
v88	real	retired, book still settling 2026-09-03 13:36Z → 2026-09-19 16:42Z	1117	30,685	+928	+4016	+1235	+306.5
v81	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-30 09:55Z → 2026-09-03 13:36Z	393	13,334	+1646	+760	+5	+579.2
v80	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 19:42Z → 2026-08-30 09:55Z	26	595	+7	-1	-6	+11.3
v78	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 17:15Z → 2026-08-29 19:28Z	11	411	+25	-47	-71	-242.6
v77	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 16:03Z → 2026-08-29 17:15Z	5	247	-18	-32	-52	-985.7
v77	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 16:03Z → 2026-08-29 17:15Z	5	247	-18	-32	-52	-985.7
v76	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 15:27Z → 2026-08-29 16:02Z	10	298	+320	+0	+0	+13115.0
v75	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 13:01Z → 2026-08-29 15:27Z	13	218	+149	+0	+0	+1479.0
v74	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 10:35Z → 2026-08-29 13:01Z	12	128	+23	-14	-22	+89.3
v73	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 10:24Z → 2026-08-29 10:35Z	10	250	+3	+2	+1	+616.5
v72	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 10:12Z → 2026-08-29 10:24Z	5	125	+2	+1	+1	+343.1
v71	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 10:03Z → 2026-08-29 10:12Z	5	125	+2	+2	+2	+553.2
v70	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 06:12Z → 2026-08-29 10:03Z	9	150	-9	+8	+8	-3.0
v67	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-28 07:38Z → 2026-08-29 06:12Z	27	475	-108	+40	+21	-72.3
v66	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-28 06:43Z → 2026-08-28 07:38Z	2	50	+1	+0	-0	+36.5
v65	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-27 19:48Z → 2026-08-28 06:43Z	18	253	+340	+3	-3	+753.4
v64	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-27 10:06Z → 2026-08-27 19:48Z	9	227	+36	-64	-72	-69.3
v63	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-27 08:12Z → 2026-08-27 10:06Z	3	75	+5	-3	-5	+36.5
v62	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-27 07:18Z → 2026-08-27 08:12Z	3	69	+5	+3	+2	+224.9
v89-twin	paper	evaluating 2026-09-19 16:43Z → running	196	3,632	+191	+1131	+520	+442.7
codex-paper	paper	retired: window-complete 2026-08-22 19:49Z → 2026-08-22 19:49Z	1	40	+0	+13	+4	-
v88-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-09-03 16:10Z → 2026-09-19 12:21Z	1412	26,687	+1027	+5778	+2442	+429.6
v87	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-09-03 00:02Z → 2026-09-03 15:21Z	54	952	-375	+95	-2	-438.5
v86	paper	retired: window-complete 2026-09-02 13:27Z → 2026-09-09 15:32Z	539	13,928	+1183	+3446	+1059	+653.2
v85	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-09-02 10:16Z → 2026-09-02 13:08Z	21	849	+775	+114	-7	+7461.3
v84	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-09-02 02:00Z → 2026-09-02 08:22Z	46	350	-40	+42	+18	+5.7
v83	paper	retired: window-complete 2026-09-01 10:09Z → 2026-09-08 03:32Z	646	11,605	+727	+2860	+835	+533.5
v82	paper	retired: window-complete 2026-08-30 22:07Z → 2026-09-01 09:44Z	177	3,963	+247	+167	-2	+279.2
v80-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-29 22:05Z → 2026-08-30 07:42Z	28	650	+61	+43	+20	+259.9
v77-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-29 16:04Z → 2026-08-29 17:52Z	15	400	-116	+170	+54	+723.9
v75-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-29 13:31Z → 2026-08-29 15:38Z	16	474	-200	+35	-4	-1880.5
v72-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-29 10:14Z → 2026-08-29 12:19Z	11	250	+26	+20	+5	+532.6
v70-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-29 08:17Z → 2026-08-29 08:29Z	6	140	+2	+8	+8	+1241.1
v68	paper	retired: window-complete 2026-08-28 13:52Z → 2026-08-30 18:48Z	73	2,211	+410	+330	+249	+335.1
v67-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-28 08:16Z → 2026-08-29 07:19Z	32	792	+239	+112	+80	+365.9
v65-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-27 20:15Z → 2026-08-28 02:27Z	17	238	-57	+16	+10	-159.6
v64-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-27 10:07Z → 2026-08-27 20:07Z	13	334	+34	-51	-58	-41.4
v63-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-27 08:14Z → 2026-08-27 08:18Z	5	347	+3	+22	+5	+11001.8
v62-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-27 07:20Z → 2026-08-27 07:48Z	6	310	+3	+24	+13	+1336.9
v60-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-27 10:06Z → 2026-08-27 10:06Z	2	50	+3	+0	+0	+109728.0
v59-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 20:46Z → 2026-08-26 20:46Z	3	84	+0	+11	+1	+460637.2
v58-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 12:59Z → 2026-08-26 19:49Z	13	391	-67	+13	-11	-190.2
v57-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 12:24Z → 2026-08-26 12:51Z	2	8	+0	+12	+4	+626.0
v56-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 12:01Z → 2026-08-26 12:10Z	3	110	+0	+75	+49	+11809.4
v55-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 11:41Z → 2026-08-26 11:59Z	5	101	+1	+78	+55	+6374.5
v53-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 10:58Z → 2026-08-26 11:04Z	4	70	+22	+5	-2	+6307.7
v50-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 10:03Z → 2026-08-26 10:33Z	5	121	+34	+28	+21	+2885.8
v45	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 20:32Z → 2026-08-25 21:04Z	8	605	-86	+8	-41	-3429.4
v44	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 20:28Z → 2026-08-25 20:31Z	7	365	+15	-6	-32	+5636.0
v41	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 14:46Z → 2026-08-25 17:58Z	9	656	-481	+3	-5	-3573.8
v39	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 12:44Z → 2026-08-25 13:31Z	1	100	-100	+0	+0	-3092.3
v38	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 12:18Z → 2026-08-25 12:41Z	3	212	-12	+27	+15	+973.2
v37	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 09:45Z → 2026-08-25 09:45Z	1	28	+0	+14	+12	+37215.2
v35	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 08:50Z → 2026-08-25 08:59Z	6	184	+57	+29	+23	+14065.5
v34	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 08:46Z → 2026-08-25 08:47Z	1	131	+57	+0	+0	+258245.1
v20	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-24 13:39Z → 2026-08-24 14:34Z	3	203	-10	+94	+90	+2187.4
v16	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-24 12:42Z → 2026-08-24 13:15Z	15	375	-96	+4	+0	-4042.7
v15	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-24 12:38Z → 2026-08-24 12:39Z	9	250	-77	-26	-26	-111952.5
v14	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-24 12:35Z → 2026-08-24 12:36Z	7	222	-74	-4	-4	-86088.4
v13	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-24 12:31Z → 2026-08-24 12:32Z	8	227	-71	-4	-4	-87939.7
v12	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-24 12:16Z → 2026-08-24 12:17Z	8	222	-67	-4	-4	-92033.7
v11	paper	retired: window-complete 2026-08-23 20:07Z → 2026-08-30 04:03Z	359	10,830	+1707	+1482	+487	+503.8
v10	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-23 08:06Z → 2026-08-23 20:03Z	30	907	+216	+257	+189	+951.2
v9	paper	retired: window-complete 2026-08-22 20:03Z → 2026-08-29 00:28Z	327	7,435	+2028	+972	+410	+485.1
v8	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-22 17:52Z → 2026-08-22 19:52Z	16	400	+76	+8	+3	+1010.6
v7	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-22 08:16Z → 2026-08-22 17:06Z	6	120	+96	+95	+33	+518.9