trader-agent v88-twin

Evaluation

v88-twinpaper window 2026-09-03 16:11Z → now, 16.0 d resolved 83 / 40 retired: prod-moved

sim

+89.9 /day prod, same window

+369.8 /day

HOLD noise floor ±93.5/day (5 pts of prod stake) · markets bet by both 220

sim earns +89.9 mana/day (de-scaled /1) vs prod +369.8, beyond the 5.0pt-of-stake noise floor (93.5/day)

Modules of v88-twin

Own trades and own declines only; each module's page has the reasoning.

codex-openlive

+1,987 / +4,087

A price-blind language-model estimate on each new market; bets only when it disagrees with the price by more than the configured edge.

0bets by entry price1

bets: 598
staked: 15,998
settled: 44/86 won
realised: +392
open (351) sold: +1595
open (351) held: +3696
return sold: +12%
return held: +26%
booked off probe: 12

xvenue-jumplive

+372 / +419

When a real-money twin on Kalshi or Polymarket jumps 10+ points, carries the move onto the Manifold mirror.

0bets by entry price1

bets: 75
staked: 534
settled: 70/70 won
realised: +360
open (5) sold: +12
open (5) held: +59
return sold: +70%
return held: +78%

close-longlive

+359 / +360

Longshots at 0.03-0.15 inside 24h of close resolve NO about 95% of the time.

0bets by entry price1

bets: 34
staked: 848
settled: 25/26 won
realised: +359
open (8) sold: +0
open (8) held: +1
return sold: +42%
return held: +42%

open-snipelive

+306 / +418

Bets a brand-new untraded market from its opening price toward the historical resolution rate of its cell (type x price x horizon x ante).

0bets by entry price1

bets: 125
staked: 1,992
settled: 6/21 won
realised: +316
open (94) sold: -11
open (94) held: +102
return sold: +15%
return held: +21%

whale-fadelive

+296 / +1,009

A single 100+ mana YES bet that pushes a mid-life market up 5+ points is overconfident on average; fades it.

0bets by entry price1

bets: 124
staked: 4,410
settled: 5/18 won
realised: -348
open (39) sold: +644
open (39) held: +1357
return sold: +7%
return held: +23%
booked off probe: 35

down-fade

+220 / +573

0bets by entry price1

bets: 133
staked: 1,628
settled: 12/20 won
realised: +100
open (38) sold: +121
open (38) held: +473
return sold: +14%
return held: +35%

close-favlive

+27 / +28

Favourites at 0.90-0.97 inside 24h of close resolve YES about 99% of the time.

0bets by entry price1

bets: 20
staked: 500
settled: 16/17 won
realised: +27
open (3) sold: +0
open (3) held: +0
return sold: +5%
return held: +6%

mc-otherlive

+2 / +2

The catch-all 'Other' answer in winner-take-all markets is overpriced above 0.20; buys NO toward 0.12.

0bets by entry price1

bets: 3
staked: 36
settled: none settled yet
realised: +0
open (3) sold: +2
open (3) held: +2
return sold: +4%
return held: +6%

numeric-tailshadow

-4 / -3

Buys the lowest bucket of a new numeric or date market.

0bets by entry price1

bets: 2
staked: 11
settled: none settled yet
realised: +0
open (2) sold: -4
open (2) held: -3
return sold: -40%
return held: -29%

mc-indeplive

-94 / -86

Independent multiple-choice answers listed at creation resolve YES far less often than their 0.50 opens imply.

0bets by entry price1

bets: 298
staked: 731
settled: 19/91 won
realised: -179
open (113) sold: +86
open (113) held: +93
return sold: -13%
return held: -12%

park-nolive

no fills

Parks idle mana as NO in stale mid-priced books instead of leaving it in cash.

judged 754 markets, placed nothing

Trades of v88-twin

when	module	market	bet	result	why
09-19 12:21	whale-fade	Current mod loses role by end Sept?	NO 0	unfilled	fade: single 50-mana YES bet pushed 0.45->0.66; big YES aggression is overconfident on average
09-19 11:47	codex-open	Will the Kennedy Center be demolished during Trump's presidency?	NO 39	open +9	luna-medium price-blind says 0.18 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.32 >= 0.2): The base rate is effectively 0%, but Trump’s explicit threats, aligned trustees, reported deterioration, and a long 28-month window lift the probability to about 18%, while litigation, congressional constraints, and the 30-day judicial notice requirement keep it well below even odds.
09-19 11:29	codex-open	Which party will win the Abbotsford-Mission provincial by-election? ×2 answers	YES 5	open +0	luna-medium price-blind says 0.77 vs answer 0.25 (edge +0.52 >= 0.1): Base-rate proxy is the Conservatives’ 55.4%–44.6% win in this riding in 2024 (1/1 recent local seat holds); the rules clearly settle on the party of the winner, voting is scheduled for September 26, Elections BC is the resolver, and matching Polymarket odds near 84% are discounted for the narrow prior margin, the NDP’s returning candidate, and Conservative turmoil ([Elections BC](https://elections.bc.ca/news/abbotsford-mission-by-election-candidates-confirmed/), [official 2024 results](https://elections.bc.ca/docs/rpt/statement-of-votes-2024-provincial-election.pdf), [Ipsos](https://www.ipsos.com/en-ca/bc-conservative-support-scatters-under-kerry-lynne-findlay)).
09-19 11:27	mc-other	Which party will win the Abbotsford-Mission provincial by-election?	NO 11	open +2	sum-to-one Other answers priced >=0.20 resolve ~10-21%% historically; open 0.25 -> target 0.12
09-19 11:09	open-snipe	Will there be a Jev-style decision output model not made by typesafe on Op	NO 0	open -0	virgin market: cell [ai\|mid\|>=45d\|sm] historically resolves YES 0.36 vs creator open 0.50
09-19 11:09	open-snipe	Will there be a second Jev-style decision output model on OpenRouter by en	NO 6	open -1	virgin market: cell [ai\|mid\|>=45d\|sm] historically resolves YES 0.36 vs creator open 0.60
09-19 09:26	whale-fade	Will AGI be achieved in the next 5 years?	NO 45	open -22	fade: single 1000-mana YES bet pushed 0.55->0.86; big YES aggression is overconfident on average
09-19 08:15	whale-fade	Will the Resident Evil movie make over 30 million dollars at the Japanese	NO 0	unfilled	fade: single 50-mana YES bet pushed 0.55->0.72; big YES aggression is overconfident on average
09-19 08:15	whale-fade	Will the Resident Evil movie make over 8 million dollars at the Japanese b	NO 0	unfilled	fade: single 50-mana YES bet pushed 0.60->0.75; big YES aggression is overconfident on average
09-19 05:41	codex-open	Strait or canal subject to UNCLOS transit passage rights closed by end 203	YES 100	open +6	luna-medium price-blind says 0.90 vs market 0.50 (edge +0.40 >= 0.2): The Strait of Hormuz is already experiencing an official/effective closure under the ordinary operational reading, and Bab el-Mandeb adds substantial continuation risk, but UNCLOS’s ban on legal suspension and the lack of a precise closure standard warrant a discount.
09-19 03:45	open-snipe	Will any FBS College Football team score 90 or more points in a single gam	NO 4	open +1	virgin market: cell [other\|mid\|>=45d\|sm] historically resolves YES 0.33 vs creator open 0.50
09-19 03:42	open-snipe	Will SPCX close at $150.00 or higher on Friday, October 2, 2026?	NO 13	open -1	virgin market: cell [other\|mid\|<45d\|sm] historically resolves YES 0.41 vs creator open 0.55
09-19 03:42	open-snipe	Will SPCX close at $150.00 or higher on Friday, October 9, 2026?	NO 13	open +0	virgin market: cell [other\|mid\|<45d\|sm] historically resolves YES 0.41 vs creator open 0.54
09-19 03:42	open-snipe	Will SPCX close at $150.00 or higher on Friday, October 16, 2026?	NO 11	open -1	virgin market: cell [other\|mid\|<45d\|sm] historically resolves YES 0.41 vs creator open 0.53
09-19 03:14	open-snipe	Will the 2026 midterm election be stolen by Trump and GOP?	YES 0	unfilled	virgin market: cell [politics\|lo\|>=45d\|sm] historically resolves YES 0.37 vs creator open 0.12
09-19 03:11	codex-open	Will any Trump's opponents go to prison before 2029?	YES 15	open +8	luna-medium price-blind says 0.48 vs market 0.20 (edge +0.28 >= 0.2): Base rate is roughly 1% per presidential term for a prominent opponent actually entering prison, but Bolton’s October 28, 2026 sentencing is a live trigger with an estimated 40% prison-entry chance; Comey/James appeals and other targets add modest upside, while the broad “opponent” definition and lack of a matching market witness pull the estimate toward 0.5, with AP/Reuters confirmation of physical entry as the resolver.
09-19 02:10	open-snipe	Will Democratic candidate Sherrod Brown win Mahoning County in the OH-SEN	NO 19	open -10	virgin market: cell [politics\|mid\|>=45d\|sm] historically resolves YES 0.33 vs creator open 0.50
09-19 01:10	whale-fade	Will Google Gemini hack a company during testing before the next Gemini Pr	NO 0	unfilled	fade: single 100-mana YES bet pushed 0.53->0.73; big YES aggression is overconfident on average
09-19 00:00	codex-open	What will be the next planetary-mass object to have its first ever spacecr ×2 answers	NO 17	open -3	luna-medium price-blind says 0.12 vs answer 0.25 (edge -0.13 >= 0.1): Base rate is 4 first soft landings on listed planetary-mass bodies in 1966–2005 (~0.10/year) but 0 in 2005–2026; Ceres qualifies as a dwarf planetary-mass object, yet no Ceres landing is scheduled before 2050, while Dragonfly targets already-counted Titan and Europa Clipper is not a lander, so the Wikipedia landing list is the resolver and I estimate only 12%.
09-18 23:57	whale-fade	Will Trump interfere with Greenland?	NO 0	unfilled	fade: single 50-mana YES bet pushed 0.26->0.42; big YES aggression is overconfident on average
09-18 23:52	whale-fade	Will Google Gemini hack a company during testing before the next Gemini Pr	NO 45	settled -45	fade: single 75-mana YES bet pushed 0.17->0.53; big YES aggression is overconfident on average
09-18 23:40	whale-fade	Will there be a new contender on Felony Bench by end of 2026?	NO 0	unfilled	fade: single 500-mana YES bet pushed 0.62->0.76; big YES aggression is overconfident on average
09-18 22:25	open-snipe	Will Rahm Emanuel and Hasan Piker have a public debate or conversation thi	NO 15	open +1	virgin market: cell [other\|mid\|>=45d\|lg] historically resolves YES 0.31 vs creator open 0.45
09-18 21:46	down-fade	The probability of "extremely bad outcomes e.g., human extinction" from AG	YES 28	settled -28	down-fade: single 250-mana NO bet pushed 0.72->0.55; big NO aggression is overconfident on average
09-18 21:44	whale-fade	Will Russia invade any NATO country before 31 December 2026?	NO 0	unfilled	fade: single 300-mana YES bet pushed 0.10->0.22; big YES aggression is overconfident on average
09-18 21:26	codex-open	Will Anthropic's public Form S-1 appear on SEC EDGAR by October 31, 2026?	YES 0	unfilled	luna-medium price-blind says 0.65 vs market 0.35 (edge +0.30 >= 0.2): Base rate: I estimate ~70% for a confidential IPO submission becoming public within five months (historical median to effectiveness 116 days, 91–175-day interquartile range); EDGAR rules are unambiguous, and no public Anthropic S-1 is visible as of September 18, while reported late-September prospectus/mid-October roadshow timing supports YES but is unconfirmed and sentiment-heavy; no officially scheduled pre-deadline event is known, and the exact resolver is EDGAR (not news); the related Polymarket October-31 IPO contract is ~52% but resolves on trading, not filing, so it is only a lower-bound proxy, leading to 65%.
09-18 21:08	codex-open	Senate and House Call of the House prop bets. ×4 answers	NO 200	open -6	luna-medium price-blind says 0.01 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.49 >= 0.3): BASE RATE: roughly 0 confirmed federal Call-of-the-House sanctions in recent decades, with only one notable physical Senate compulsion since 1988; RULES: House Rule XX and Senate Rule VI permit compulsory attendance but do not make sanctions automatic, while “otherwise sanctioned” is undefined and modestly increases ambiguity; NARRATIVE: political drama or thin majorities are weak evidence against the institutional norm of excused or voluntary attendance; CALENDAR: the 120th Congress is scheduled to convene on January 3, 2027, before the April 14 close; RESOLVER: the official House/Senate Journals and Congressional Record, with the Congressional Record as the practical public source; no closely matching witness market was found, so this is a base-rate estimate adjusted slightly upward for opening-day uncertainty.
09-18 21:01	mc-indep	Senate and House Call of the House prop bets. ×9 answers	NO 0	unfilled	independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.391 for this type; open 0.50

Showing the newest 28 of 826 trades (1412 bets); each module page carries its whole book.

The lineage

version	mana	status · window	bets	staked	realised	open held	open sold	per day
v89	real	live in prod 2026-09-19 16:42Z → running	221	5,709	+338	+388	-114	+242.4
v88	real	retired, book still settling 2026-09-03 13:36Z → 2026-09-19 16:42Z	1117	30,685	+928	+3993	+1216	+305.1
v81	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-30 09:55Z → 2026-09-03 13:36Z	393	13,334	+1646	+760	+5	+579.2
v80	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 19:42Z → 2026-08-30 09:55Z	26	595	+7	-1	-6	+11.3
v78	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 17:15Z → 2026-08-29 19:28Z	11	411	+25	-47	-71	-242.6
v77	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 16:03Z → 2026-08-29 17:15Z	5	247	-18	-32	-52	-985.7
v77	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 16:03Z → 2026-08-29 17:15Z	5	247	-18	-32	-52	-985.7
v76	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 15:27Z → 2026-08-29 16:02Z	10	298	+320	+0	+0	+13115.0
v75	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 13:01Z → 2026-08-29 15:27Z	13	218	+149	+0	+0	+1479.0
v74	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 10:35Z → 2026-08-29 13:01Z	12	128	+23	-14	-22	+89.3
v73	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 10:24Z → 2026-08-29 10:35Z	10	250	+3	+2	+1	+616.5
v72	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 10:12Z → 2026-08-29 10:24Z	5	125	+2	+1	+1	+343.1
v71	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 10:03Z → 2026-08-29 10:12Z	5	125	+2	+2	+2	+553.2
v70	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 06:12Z → 2026-08-29 10:03Z	9	150	-9	+8	+8	-3.0
v67	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-28 07:38Z → 2026-08-29 06:12Z	27	475	-108	+40	+21	-72.3
v66	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-28 06:43Z → 2026-08-28 07:38Z	2	50	+1	+0	-0	+36.5
v65	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-27 19:48Z → 2026-08-28 06:43Z	18	253	+340	+3	-3	+753.4
v64	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-27 10:06Z → 2026-08-27 19:48Z	9	227	+36	-64	-72	-69.3
v63	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-27 08:12Z → 2026-08-27 10:06Z	3	75	+5	-3	-5	+36.5
v62	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-27 07:18Z → 2026-08-27 08:12Z	3	69	+5	+3	+2	+224.9
v89-twin	paper	evaluating 2026-09-19 16:43Z → running	196	3,632	+191	+1139	+527	+444.0
codex-paper	paper	retired: window-complete 2026-08-22 19:49Z → 2026-08-22 19:49Z	1	40	+0	+13	+4	-
v88-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-09-03 16:10Z → 2026-09-19 12:21Z	1412	26,687	+1027	+5780	+2443	+429.7
v87	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-09-03 00:02Z → 2026-09-03 15:21Z	54	952	-375	+95	-2	-438.5
v86	paper	retired: window-complete 2026-09-02 13:27Z → 2026-09-09 15:32Z	539	13,928	+1183	+3446	+1059	+653.2
v85	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-09-02 10:16Z → 2026-09-02 13:08Z	21	849	+775	+114	-7	+7461.3
v84	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-09-02 02:00Z → 2026-09-02 08:22Z	46	350	-40	+42	+18	+5.7
v83	paper	retired: window-complete 2026-09-01 10:09Z → 2026-09-08 03:32Z	646	11,605	+727	+2860	+835	+533.5
v82	paper	retired: window-complete 2026-08-30 22:07Z → 2026-09-01 09:44Z	177	3,963	+247	+167	-2	+279.2
v80-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-29 22:05Z → 2026-08-30 07:42Z	28	650	+61	+43	+20	+259.9
v77-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-29 16:04Z → 2026-08-29 17:52Z	15	400	-116	+170	+54	+723.9
v75-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-29 13:31Z → 2026-08-29 15:38Z	16	474	-200	+35	-4	-1880.5
v72-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-29 10:14Z → 2026-08-29 12:19Z	11	250	+26	+20	+5	+532.6
v70-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-29 08:17Z → 2026-08-29 08:29Z	6	140	+2	+8	+8	+1241.1
v68	paper	retired: window-complete 2026-08-28 13:52Z → 2026-08-30 18:48Z	73	2,211	+410	+330	+249	+335.1
v67-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-28 08:16Z → 2026-08-29 07:19Z	32	792	+239	+112	+80	+365.9
v65-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-27 20:15Z → 2026-08-28 02:27Z	17	238	-57	+16	+10	-159.6
v64-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-27 10:07Z → 2026-08-27 20:07Z	13	334	+34	-51	-58	-41.4
v63-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-27 08:14Z → 2026-08-27 08:18Z	5	347	+3	+22	+5	+11001.8
v62-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-27 07:20Z → 2026-08-27 07:48Z	6	310	+3	+24	+13	+1336.9
v60-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-27 10:06Z → 2026-08-27 10:06Z	2	50	+3	+0	+0	+109728.0
v59-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 20:46Z → 2026-08-26 20:46Z	3	84	+0	+11	+1	+460637.2
v58-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 12:59Z → 2026-08-26 19:49Z	13	391	-67	+13	-11	-190.2
v57-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 12:24Z → 2026-08-26 12:51Z	2	8	+0	+12	+4	+626.0
v56-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 12:01Z → 2026-08-26 12:10Z	3	110	+0	+75	+49	+11809.4
v55-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 11:41Z → 2026-08-26 11:59Z	5	101	+1	+78	+55	+6374.5
v53-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 10:58Z → 2026-08-26 11:04Z	4	70	+22	+5	-2	+6307.7
v50-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 10:03Z → 2026-08-26 10:33Z	5	121	+34	+28	+21	+2885.8
v45	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 20:32Z → 2026-08-25 21:04Z	8	605	-86	+8	-41	-3429.4
v44	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 20:28Z → 2026-08-25 20:31Z	7	365	+15	-6	-32	+5636.0
v41	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 14:46Z → 2026-08-25 17:58Z	9	656	-481	+3	-5	-3573.8
v39	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 12:44Z → 2026-08-25 13:31Z	1	100	-100	+0	+0	-3092.3
v38	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 12:18Z → 2026-08-25 12:41Z	3	212	-12	+27	+15	+973.2
v37	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 09:45Z → 2026-08-25 09:45Z	1	28	+0	+14	+12	+37215.2
v35	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 08:50Z → 2026-08-25 08:59Z	6	184	+57	+29	+23	+14065.5
v34	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 08:46Z → 2026-08-25 08:47Z	1	131	+57	+0	+0	+258245.1
v20	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-24 13:39Z → 2026-08-24 14:34Z	3	203	-10	+94	+90	+2187.4
v16	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-24 12:42Z → 2026-08-24 13:15Z	15	375	-96	+4	+0	-4042.7
v15	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-24 12:38Z → 2026-08-24 12:39Z	9	250	-77	-26	-26	-111952.5
v14	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-24 12:35Z → 2026-08-24 12:36Z	7	222	-74	-4	-4	-86088.4
v13	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-24 12:31Z → 2026-08-24 12:32Z	8	227	-71	-4	-4	-87939.7
v12	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-24 12:16Z → 2026-08-24 12:17Z	8	222	-67	-4	-4	-92033.7
v11	paper	retired: window-complete 2026-08-23 20:07Z → 2026-08-30 04:03Z	359	10,830	+1707	+1482	+487	+503.8
v10	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-23 08:06Z → 2026-08-23 20:03Z	30	907	+216	+257	+189	+951.2
v9	paper	retired: window-complete 2026-08-22 20:03Z → 2026-08-29 00:28Z	327	7,435	+2028	+972	+410	+485.1
v8	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-22 17:52Z → 2026-08-22 19:52Z	16	400	+76	+8	+3	+1010.6
v7	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-22 08:16Z → 2026-08-22 17:06Z	6	120	+96	+95	+33	+518.9