trader-agent v68

Evaluation

v68paper window 2026-08-28 13:52Z → now, 6.6 d resolved 34 / 40 retired: window-complete

sim

+63.7 /day prod, same window

+339.8 /day

HOLD noise floor ±129.4/day (5 pts of prod stake) · markets bet by both 54

window 6.6d < 7d
resolved 34 < 40
sim earns +63.7 mana/day (de-scaled /1) vs prod +339.8, beyond the 5.0pt-of-stake noise floor (129.4/day)

Modules of v68

Own trades and own declines only; each module's page has the reasoning.

codex-openlive

+435 / +511

A price-blind language-model estimate on each new market; bets only when it disagrees with the price by more than the configured edge.

0bets by entry price1

bets: 30
staked: 1,308
settled: 8/9 won
realised: +207
open (21) sold: +228
open (21) held: +304
return sold: +33%
return held: +39%

open-snipelive

+175 / +178

Bets a brand-new untraded market from its opening price toward the historical resolution rate of its cell (type x price x horizon x ante).

0bets by entry price1

bets: 8
staked: 198
settled: 2/2 won
realised: +171
open (6) sold: +4
open (6) held: +7
return sold: +89%
return held: +90%

close-longlive

+23 / +23

Longshots at 0.03-0.15 inside 24h of close resolve NO about 95% of the time.

0bets by entry price1

bets: 14
staked: 350
settled: 14/14 won
realised: +23
open (0) sold: +0
open (0) held: +0
return sold: +7%
return held: +7%

close-favlive

+15 / +15

Favourites at 0.90-0.97 inside 24h of close resolve YES about 99% of the time.

0bets by entry price1

bets: 12
staked: 300
settled: 8/8 won
realised: +13
open (4) sold: +2
open (4) held: +2
return sold: +5%
return held: +5%

whale-fadelive

+14 / +16

A single 100+ mana YES bet that pushes a mid-life market up 5+ points is overconfident on average; fades it.

0bets by entry price1

bets: 1
staked: 25
settled: none settled yet
realised: +0
open (1) sold: +14
open (1) held: +16
return sold: +56%
return held: +63%

mc-indeplive

-4 / -4

Independent multiple-choice answers listed at creation resolve YES far less often than their 0.50 opens imply.

0bets by entry price1

bets: 8
staked: 30
settled: 4/8 won
realised: -4
open (0) sold: +0
open (0) held: +0
return sold: -12%
return held: -12%

codex-swingoff

no fills

Exit policy for codex-open positions.

disabled in this version's config

event-makeroff

no fills

Quotes both sides of busy event markets and collects the spread.

disabled in this version's config

mc-otherlive

no fills

The catch-all 'Other' answer in winner-take-all markets is overpriced above 0.20; buys NO toward 0.12.

judged 209 markets, placed nothing

numeric-tailshadow

no fills

Buys the lowest bucket of a new numeric or date market.

judged 209 markets, placed nothing

park-nolive

no fills

Parks idle mana as NO in stale mid-priced books instead of leaving it in cash.

judged 107 markets, placed nothing

Trades of v68

when	module	market	bet	result	why
08-30 18:48	open-snipe	Anthropic has a profitable quarter in 2027?	NO 15	open +0	virgin market: cell [ai\|mid\|>=45d\|sm] historically resolves YES 0.35 vs creator open 0.50
08-30 18:48	codex-open	Will any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be relea	NO 100	open +5	luna-medium price-blind says 0.08 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.42 >= 0.2): The literal March-release clause makes YES nearly impossible, while an intended later deadline would imply roughly a 10–15% chance given the stringent 8-of-10 and 10× cost requirements.
08-30 18:46	open-snipe	Will any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be relea	NO 15	open +1	virgin market: cell [ai\|mid\|>=45d\|lg] historically resolves YES 0.33 vs creator open 0.50
08-30 18:31	close-fav	Will Christopher Randles remain in Masters after Season 40?	YES 25	settled +2	favorite band 0.90-0.97 within 24h of close resolves YES 99%
08-30 18:29	open-snipe	Will any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be relea	NO 15	open -11	virgin market: cell [ai\|mid\|>=45d\|lg] historically resolves YES 0.33 vs creator open 0.50
08-30 18:27	open-snipe	Will the EIA weekly U.S. average regular gasoline price fall below $3.75/g	NO 15	open +7	virgin market: cell [other\|mid\|>=45d\|sm] historically resolves YES 0.33 vs creator open 0.45
08-30 18:15	codex-open	Who will win season 0 of Telarchy tournament? ×4 answers	NO 302	open +102	luna-medium price-blind says 0.04 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.46 >= 0.3): Elon Musk has no verified current-leaderboard advantage, so the estimate is near the equal-entrant base rate with substantial uncertainty from missing standings.
08-30 17:50	codex-open	Will google maps say Lake Ontario at the end of February 2029?	NO 25	open -3	luna-medium price-blind says 0.28 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.22 >= 0.2): Base rate: 1 of 2 recent headline federal geographic renamings has been reversed; Google’s resolver currently shows “Lake America” to U.S. users, with the 2028 election and January 20, 2029 inauguration as key reversal catalysts,
08-30 17:01	close-long	Will Mohan Bhagwat be taken into custody by a U.S. government authority in	NO 25	settled +1	longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
08-30 15:31	close-long	Will Jesse remain in Masters after Season 40?	NO 25	settled +1	longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
08-30 15:01	codex-open	Will it Snow in September in Houston?	NO 73	open +40	luna-medium price-blind says 0.00 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.50 >= 0.2): September snow at IAH has a zero-event historical base rate across 57 station years, with current warmth and no forecast signal overcoming that extreme climatological constraint.
08-30 15:00	open-snipe	Will it Snow in September in Houston?	NO 9	open +8	virgin market: cell [other\|mid\|<45d\|sm] historically resolves YES 0.41 vs creator open 0.50
08-30 14:31	close-fav	Will Ziddletwix remain in Masters after Season 40?	YES 25	settled +2	favorite band 0.90-0.97 within 24h of close resolves YES 99%
08-30 14:01	close-long	US regain control over Bagram air base in Afghanistan by August 2026?	NO 25	settled +2	longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
08-30 13:08	codex-open	On September 27th 2026, what will the 7-day average ships passing through	NO 56	open +38	luna-medium price-blind says 0.18 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.32 >= 0.3): Historical PortWatch data show no post-crisis 7-day average at or above 35, while current traffic is about 5/day; the proposed temporary Iran-Oman corridor creates meaningful upside but remains contingent and the closest Sep-30 wi
08-30 13:01	close-long	Will Anthropic release a system card of a model at a new frontier of intel	NO 25	settled +3	longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
08-30 11:00	close-fav	Will chris (strutheo) remain in Masters after Season 40?	YES 25	settled +1	favorite band 0.90-0.97 within 24h of close resolves YES 99%
08-29 23:28	close-long	Will DP remain in Masters after Season 40?	NO 25	settled +1	longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
08-29 23:28	close-fav	Will Zanda Zhu remain in Masters after Season 40?	YES 25	settled +1	favorite band 0.90-0.97 within 24h of close resolves YES 99%
08-29 23:28	close-long	Will Mary Smith remain in Masters after Season 40?	NO 25	settled +1	longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
08-29 23:28	close-long	Will Joe and Seth remain in Masters after Season 40?	NO 25	settled +2	longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
08-29 23:28	close-long	Will Daniel Tello remain in Masters after Season 40?	NO 25	settled +2	longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
08-29 23:28	close-fav	Will JasonMendoza2008 remain in Masters after Season 40?	YES 25	settled +2	favorite band 0.90-0.97 within 24h of close resolves YES 99%
08-29 23:28	close-fav	Will Chad remain in Masters after Season 40?	YES 25	settled +2	favorite band 0.90-0.97 within 24h of close resolves YES 99%
08-29 23:28	close-long	Will Alex remain in Masters after Season 40?	NO 25	settled +1	longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
08-29 23:28	close-long	Will draaglom remain in Masters after Season 40?	NO 25	settled +1	longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
08-29 23:28	close-long	Will Toward a theory of everything remain in Masters after Season 40?	NO 25	settled +2	longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
08-29 23:28	close-long	Will Tripping remain in Masters after Season 40?	NO 25	settled +2	longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%

Showing the newest 28 of 53 trades (73 bets); each module page carries its whole book.

The lineage

version	mana	status · window	bets	staked	realised	open held	open sold	per day
v89	real	live in prod 2026-09-19 16:42Z → running	221	5,709	+338	+386	-116	+242.3
v88	real	retired, book still settling 2026-09-03 13:36Z → 2026-09-19 16:42Z	1117	30,685	+928	+4016	+1235	+306.5
v81	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-30 09:55Z → 2026-09-03 13:36Z	393	13,334	+1646	+760	+5	+579.2
v80	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 19:42Z → 2026-08-30 09:55Z	26	595	+7	-1	-6	+11.3
v78	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 17:15Z → 2026-08-29 19:28Z	11	411	+25	-47	-71	-242.6
v77	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 16:03Z → 2026-08-29 17:15Z	5	247	-18	-32	-52	-985.7
v77	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 16:03Z → 2026-08-29 17:15Z	5	247	-18	-32	-52	-985.7
v76	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 15:27Z → 2026-08-29 16:02Z	10	298	+320	+0	+0	+13115.0
v75	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 13:01Z → 2026-08-29 15:27Z	13	218	+149	+0	+0	+1479.0
v74	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 10:35Z → 2026-08-29 13:01Z	12	128	+23	-14	-22	+89.3
v73	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 10:24Z → 2026-08-29 10:35Z	10	250	+3	+2	+1	+616.5
v72	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 10:12Z → 2026-08-29 10:24Z	5	125	+2	+1	+1	+343.1
v71	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 10:03Z → 2026-08-29 10:12Z	5	125	+2	+2	+2	+553.2
v70	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 06:12Z → 2026-08-29 10:03Z	9	150	-9	+8	+8	-3.0
v67	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-28 07:38Z → 2026-08-29 06:12Z	27	475	-108	+40	+21	-72.3
v66	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-28 06:43Z → 2026-08-28 07:38Z	2	50	+1	+0	-0	+36.5
v65	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-27 19:48Z → 2026-08-28 06:43Z	18	253	+340	+3	-3	+753.4
v64	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-27 10:06Z → 2026-08-27 19:48Z	9	227	+36	-64	-72	-69.3
v63	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-27 08:12Z → 2026-08-27 10:06Z	3	75	+5	-3	-5	+36.5
v62	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-27 07:18Z → 2026-08-27 08:12Z	3	69	+5	+3	+2	+224.9
v89-twin	paper	evaluating 2026-09-19 16:43Z → running	196	3,632	+191	+1131	+520	+442.7
codex-paper	paper	retired: window-complete 2026-08-22 19:49Z → 2026-08-22 19:49Z	1	40	+0	+13	+4	-
v88-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-09-03 16:10Z → 2026-09-19 12:21Z	1412	26,687	+1027	+5778	+2442	+429.6
v87	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-09-03 00:02Z → 2026-09-03 15:21Z	54	952	-375	+95	-2	-438.5
v86	paper	retired: window-complete 2026-09-02 13:27Z → 2026-09-09 15:32Z	539	13,928	+1183	+3446	+1059	+653.2
v85	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-09-02 10:16Z → 2026-09-02 13:08Z	21	849	+775	+114	-7	+7461.3
v84	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-09-02 02:00Z → 2026-09-02 08:22Z	46	350	-40	+42	+18	+5.7
v83	paper	retired: window-complete 2026-09-01 10:09Z → 2026-09-08 03:32Z	646	11,605	+727	+2860	+835	+533.5
v82	paper	retired: window-complete 2026-08-30 22:07Z → 2026-09-01 09:44Z	177	3,963	+247	+167	-2	+279.2
v80-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-29 22:05Z → 2026-08-30 07:42Z	28	650	+61	+43	+20	+259.9
v77-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-29 16:04Z → 2026-08-29 17:52Z	15	400	-116	+170	+54	+723.9
v75-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-29 13:31Z → 2026-08-29 15:38Z	16	474	-200	+35	-4	-1880.5
v72-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-29 10:14Z → 2026-08-29 12:19Z	11	250	+26	+20	+5	+532.6
v70-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-29 08:17Z → 2026-08-29 08:29Z	6	140	+2	+8	+8	+1241.1
v68	paper	retired: window-complete 2026-08-28 13:52Z → 2026-08-30 18:48Z	73	2,211	+410	+330	+249	+335.1
v67-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-28 08:16Z → 2026-08-29 07:19Z	32	792	+239	+112	+80	+365.9
v65-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-27 20:15Z → 2026-08-28 02:27Z	17	238	-57	+16	+10	-159.6
v64-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-27 10:07Z → 2026-08-27 20:07Z	13	334	+34	-51	-58	-41.4
v63-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-27 08:14Z → 2026-08-27 08:18Z	5	347	+3	+22	+5	+11001.8
v62-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-27 07:20Z → 2026-08-27 07:48Z	6	310	+3	+24	+13	+1336.9
v60-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-27 10:06Z → 2026-08-27 10:06Z	2	50	+3	+0	+0	+109728.0
v59-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 20:46Z → 2026-08-26 20:46Z	3	84	+0	+11	+1	+460637.2
v58-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 12:59Z → 2026-08-26 19:49Z	13	391	-67	+13	-11	-190.2
v57-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 12:24Z → 2026-08-26 12:51Z	2	8	+0	+12	+4	+626.0
v56-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 12:01Z → 2026-08-26 12:10Z	3	110	+0	+75	+49	+11809.4
v55-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 11:41Z → 2026-08-26 11:59Z	5	101	+1	+78	+55	+6374.5
v53-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 10:58Z → 2026-08-26 11:04Z	4	70	+22	+5	-2	+6307.7
v50-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 10:03Z → 2026-08-26 10:33Z	5	121	+34	+28	+21	+2885.8
v45	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 20:32Z → 2026-08-25 21:04Z	8	605	-86	+8	-41	-3429.4
v44	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 20:28Z → 2026-08-25 20:31Z	7	365	+15	-6	-32	+5636.0
v41	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 14:46Z → 2026-08-25 17:58Z	9	656	-481	+3	-5	-3573.8
v39	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 12:44Z → 2026-08-25 13:31Z	1	100	-100	+0	+0	-3092.3
v38	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 12:18Z → 2026-08-25 12:41Z	3	212	-12	+27	+15	+973.2
v37	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 09:45Z → 2026-08-25 09:45Z	1	28	+0	+14	+12	+37215.2
v35	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 08:50Z → 2026-08-25 08:59Z	6	184	+57	+29	+23	+14065.5
v34	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 08:46Z → 2026-08-25 08:47Z	1	131	+57	+0	+0	+258245.1
v20	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-24 13:39Z → 2026-08-24 14:34Z	3	203	-10	+94	+90	+2187.4
v16	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-24 12:42Z → 2026-08-24 13:15Z	15	375	-96	+4	+0	-4042.7
v15	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-24 12:38Z → 2026-08-24 12:39Z	9	250	-77	-26	-26	-111952.5
v14	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-24 12:35Z → 2026-08-24 12:36Z	7	222	-74	-4	-4	-86088.4
v13	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-24 12:31Z → 2026-08-24 12:32Z	8	227	-71	-4	-4	-87939.7
v12	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-24 12:16Z → 2026-08-24 12:17Z	8	222	-67	-4	-4	-92033.7
v11	paper	retired: window-complete 2026-08-23 20:07Z → 2026-08-30 04:03Z	359	10,830	+1707	+1482	+487	+503.8
v10	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-23 08:06Z → 2026-08-23 20:03Z	30	907	+216	+257	+189	+951.2
v9	paper	retired: window-complete 2026-08-22 20:03Z → 2026-08-29 00:28Z	327	7,435	+2028	+972	+410	+485.1
v8	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-22 17:52Z → 2026-08-22 19:52Z	16	400	+76	+8	+3	+1010.6
v7	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-22 08:16Z → 2026-08-22 17:06Z	6	120	+96	+95	+33	+518.9