trader-agent v88

Modules of v88

Own trades and own declines only; each module's page has the reasoning.

codex-open

+1,450 / +3,449

A price-blind language-model estimate on each new market; bets only when it disagrees with the price by more than the configured edge.

0bets by entry price1

bets: 515
staked: 17,022
settled: 54/109 won
realised: +638
open (314) sold: +812
open (314) held: +2811
return sold: +9%
return held: +20%

down-fade

+266 / +487

0bets by entry price1

bets: 146
staked: 3,053
settled: 12/34 won
realised: +46
open (97) sold: +220
open (97) held: +441
return sold: +9%
return held: +16%

close-fav

+194 / +194

Favourites at 0.90-0.97 inside 24h of close resolve YES about 99% of the time.

0bets by entry price1

bets: 22
staked: 550
settled: 13/19 won
realised: +194
open (3) sold: +0
open (3) held: +0
return sold: +35%
return held: +35%

whale-fade

+151 / +621

A single 100+ mana YES bet that pushes a mid-life market up 5+ points is overconfident on average; fades it.

0bets by entry price1

bets: 144
staked: 5,716
settled: 9/26 won
realised: -166
open (104) sold: +317
open (104) held: +787
return sold: +3%
return held: +11%

close-long

+138 / +138

Longshots at 0.03-0.15 inside 24h of close resolve NO about 95% of the time.

0bets by entry price1

bets: 34
staked: 848
settled: 19/27 won
realised: +137
open (7) sold: +0
open (7) held: +1
return sold: +16%
return held: +16%

mc-other

-4 / -4

The catch-all 'Other' answer in winner-take-all markets is overpriced above 0.20; buys NO toward 0.12.

0bets by entry price1

bets: 1
staked: 15
settled: none settled yet
realised: +0
open (1) sold: -4
open (1) held: -4
return sold: -26%
return held: -26%

open-snipe

-14 / +21

Bets a brand-new untraded market from its opening price toward the historical resolution rate of its cell (type x price x horizon x ante).

0bets by entry price1

bets: 59
staked: 1,310
settled: 6/13 won
realised: +140
open (44) sold: -154
open (44) held: -119
return sold: -1%
return held: +2%

mc-indep

-17 / +38

Independent multiple-choice answers listed at creation resolve YES far less often than their 0.50 opens imply.

0bets by entry price1

bets: 196
staked: 2,171
settled: 27/55 won
realised: -61
open (136) sold: +44
open (136) held: +99
return sold: -1%
return held: +2%

Trades of v88

when	module	market	bet	result	why
09-19 16:34	open-snipe	Can son do more push-ups than father?	NO 15	open +2	virgin market: cell [other\|mid\|>=45d\|lg] historically resolves YES 0.31 vs creator open 0.50
09-19 16:14	down-fade		YES 11	open -0	down-fade (blind, verify after): single 60-mana NO bet pushed 0.50->0.28; market not in cache
09-19 15:36	codex-open	Which charities will be recommended by GiveWell at the end of 2027? ×3 answers	YES 32	open +6	luna-medium price-blind says 0.82 vs answer 0.50 (edge +0.32 >= 0.3): AMF has remained recommended through roughly 92% of recent annual cycles and has committed GiveWell funding for 2027–2029, but the absent rules and possibility of changing Top Charity criteria warrant a discount.
09-19 15:18	close-long	Outcome of Sri Lanka vs England T20 series (Sep 2026)	NO 25	settled +3	longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
09-19 12:21	whale-fade	Current mod loses role by end Sept?	NO 21	open +17	fade: single 50-mana YES bet pushed 0.45->0.66; big YES aggression is overconfident on average
09-19 11:29	codex-open	Which party will win the Abbotsford-Mission provincial by-election? ×3 answers	YES 13	open -1	luna-medium price-blind says 0.62 vs answer 0.32 (edge +0.30 >= 0.1): Base rate is 1/1 (100%) for Conservative retention in the only prior Abbotsford-Mission election, when the party won 55.38%; the official Elections BC rules are clear, the key event is voting on September 26 with final results October 1, and despite Conservative incumbency the leader’s by-election and party turmoil make this materially closer than the raw base rate, with Elections BC as the exact resolver and no matching-market witness identified.
09-19 11:09	open-snipe	Will there be a Jev-style decision output model not made by typesafe on Op	NO 15	open -4	virgin market: cell [ai\|mid\|>=45d\|sm] historically resolves YES 0.36 vs creator open 0.50
09-19 11:09	open-snipe	Will there be a second Jev-style decision output model on OpenRouter by en	NO 15	open -4	virgin market: cell [ai\|mid\|>=45d\|sm] historically resolves YES 0.36 vs creator open 0.60
09-19 08:15	whale-fade	Will the Resident Evil movie make over 30 million dollars at the Japanese	NO 11	open -0	fade: single 50-mana YES bet pushed 0.55->0.72; big YES aggression is overconfident on average
09-19 08:15	whale-fade	Will the Resident Evil movie make over 8 million dollars at the Japanese b	NO 7	open -2	fade: single 50-mana YES bet pushed 0.60->0.75; big YES aggression is overconfident on average
09-19 05:41	codex-open	Strait or canal subject to UNCLOS transit passage rights closed by end 203	YES 100	open -3	luna-medium price-blind says 0.85 vs market 0.50 (edge +0.35 >= 0.2): Hormuz appears to satisfy the question already, but ambiguity over effective versus formally recognized closure and the Wikipedia-based resolver warrants a modest discount.
09-19 05:09	codex-open	China has nuclear-powered carrier in service by end 2040?	YES 100	open +23	luna-medium price-blind says 0.74 vs market 0.50 (edge +0.24 >= 0.2): Base rate is 0/3 Chinese carriers nuclear-powered so far, but China commissioned three carriers in 2012–2025; the likely nuclear Type 004 is already under construction with 14 years before the 2040 deadline ([CSIS](https://features.csis.org/hiddenreach/china-fourth-carrier/)), while the 2026–2030 Five-Year Plan is the main scheduled milestone, no exact resolver is specified, and “in service” ambiguity warrants a modest pull toward 0.5.
09-19 03:45	codex-open	Will any FBS College Football team score 90 or more points in a single gam	NO 51	open +0	luna-medium price-blind says 0.10 vs market 0.43 (edge -0.33 >= 0.2): Base rate is 0 confirmed FBS teams scoring 90+ in 34 completed seasons (0%; Laplace-smoothed ~2.9%), while 2026 has already produced two 87-point games; absent resolution rules create modest source/counting ambiguity, but not enough to approach 0.5, and the remaining regular season, conference championships, bowls, and CFP through Jan. 25 are the relevant calendar; the resolver should be official NCAA game records (with Sports-Reference as a proxy), and no matching witness market was found.
09-19 03:44	open-snipe	Will any FBS College Football team score 90 or more points in a single gam	NO 15	open +4	virgin market: cell [other\|mid\|>=45d\|sm] historically resolves YES 0.33 vs creator open 0.50
09-19 03:15	open-snipe	Will democrats win back the house in 2026 midterms?	NO 13	open -7	virgin market: cell [other\|hi\|>=45d\|sm] historically resolves YES 0.57 vs creator open 0.90
09-19 03:14	open-snipe	Will the 2026 midterm election be stolen by Trump and GOP?	YES 11	open -5	virgin market: cell [politics\|lo\|>=45d\|sm] historically resolves YES 0.37 vs creator open 0.12
09-19 01:10	whale-fade	Will Google Gemini hack a company during testing before Gemini 3.5 Pro/Gem	NO 11	settled -2	fade: single 100-mana YES bet pushed 0.53->0.73; big YES aggression is overconfident on average
09-19 00:01	codex-open	What will be the next planetary-mass object to have its first ever spacecr	YES 4	open -3	luna-medium price-blind says 0.42 vs answer 0.25 (edge +0.17 >= 0.1): Ceres is a plausible but unscheduled candidate, while ambiguous object boundaries, competing outer-moon landers, and no-event resolution language materially reduce confidence.
09-18 23:52	whale-fade	Will Google Gemini hack a company during testing before Gemini 3.5 Pro/Gem	NO 45	settled -9	fade: single 75-mana YES bet pushed 0.17->0.53; big YES aggression is overconfident on average
09-18 23:40	whale-fade	Will there be a new contender on Felony Bench by end of 2026?	NO 47	settled -36	fade: single 500-mana YES bet pushed 0.62->0.76; big YES aggression is overconfident on average
09-18 22:25	open-snipe	Will Rahm Emanuel and Hasan Piker have a public debate or conversation thi	NO 15	open -1	virgin market: cell [other\|mid\|>=45d\|lg] historically resolves YES 0.31 vs creator open 0.45
09-18 21:46	down-fade	The probability of "extremely bad outcomes e.g., human extinction" from AG	YES 28	settled +0	down-fade: single 250-mana NO bet pushed 0.72->0.55; big NO aggression is overconfident on average
09-18 21:44	whale-fade	Will Russia invade any NATO country before 31 December 2026?	NO 0	unfilled	fade: single 300-mana YES bet pushed 0.10->0.22; big YES aggression is overconfident on average
09-18 21:26	codex-open	Will Anthropic's public Form S-1 appear on SEC EDGAR by October 31, 2026?	YES 39	open +18	luna-medium price-blind says 0.82 vs market 0.35 (edge +0.47 >= 0.2): Base rate: confidential-to-public S-1 timing has a 72-day median and 106-day 75th percentile, versus 152 days from June 1 to October 31; the rules require an EDGAR-public filing, with no material ambiguity; the reported mid-October roadshow and late-September prospectus are the key calendar signals; EDGAR is the exact resolver, while the 64% Polymarket probability for an October listing is only a mismatched proxy that supports a higher filing probability because filing precedes the roadshow.
09-18 21:08	codex-open	Senate and House Call of the House prop bets. ×4 answers	NO 276	open +4	luna-medium price-blind says 0.00 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.50 >= 0.3): Base rate: roughly 0 formal compulsory Senate attendance calls since 1988 versus about 15–20 over the prior two centuries; the rules appear to mean that rare formal order, not routine quorum calls, with the 120th Congress convening January 3, 2027 and no scheduled event mechanically favoring it; resolution should be checked in the official Senate Journal/Congressional Record, and no matching witness market is available.
09-18 21:01	mc-indep	Senate and House Call of the House prop bets. ×9 answers	NO 106	open +7	independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.391 for this type; open 0.50
09-18 21:01	down-fade	Will the WTI Crude Oil Spot Price be above $102 on September 24, 2026?	YES 28	open -19	down-fade: single 500-mana NO bet pushed 0.50->0.31; big NO aggression is overconfident on average
09-18 21:00	codex-open	Which countries will leave the UK by EOY 2030? ×3 answers	NO 49	open +16	luna-medium price-blind says 0.02 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.48 >= 0.3): Base rate is 0%—no current UK constituent country has left since 1922; with no resolution rules or named resolver, the 2030 Senedd election is the only relevant scheduled event, while independence would still require a referendum and UK constitutional action, so ambiguity warrants a modest pull toward 0.5.

Showing the newest 28 of 724 trades (1117 bets); each module page carries its whole book.

The lineage

version	mana	status · window	bets	staked	realised	open held	open sold	per day
v89	real	live in prod 2026-09-19 16:42Z → running	221	5,709	+338	+386	-116	+242.0
v88	real	retired, book still settling 2026-09-03 13:36Z → 2026-09-19 16:42Z	1117	30,685	+928	+4016	+1235	+306.5
v81	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-30 09:55Z → 2026-09-03 13:36Z	393	13,334	+1646	+760	+5	+579.2
v80	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 19:42Z → 2026-08-30 09:55Z	26	595	+7	-1	-6	+11.3
v78	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 17:15Z → 2026-08-29 19:28Z	11	411	+25	-47	-71	-242.6
v77	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 16:03Z → 2026-08-29 17:15Z	5	247	-18	-32	-52	-985.7
v77	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 16:03Z → 2026-08-29 17:15Z	5	247	-18	-32	-52	-985.7
v76	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 15:27Z → 2026-08-29 16:02Z	10	298	+320	+0	+0	+13115.0
v75	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 13:01Z → 2026-08-29 15:27Z	13	218	+149	+0	+0	+1479.0
v74	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 10:35Z → 2026-08-29 13:01Z	12	128	+23	-14	-22	+89.3
v73	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 10:24Z → 2026-08-29 10:35Z	10	250	+3	+2	+1	+616.5
v72	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 10:12Z → 2026-08-29 10:24Z	5	125	+2	+1	+1	+343.1
v71	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 10:03Z → 2026-08-29 10:12Z	5	125	+2	+2	+2	+553.2
v70	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 06:12Z → 2026-08-29 10:03Z	9	150	-9	+8	+8	-3.0
v67	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-28 07:38Z → 2026-08-29 06:12Z	27	475	-108	+40	+21	-72.3
v66	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-28 06:43Z → 2026-08-28 07:38Z	2	50	+1	+0	-0	+36.5
v65	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-27 19:48Z → 2026-08-28 06:43Z	18	253	+340	+3	-3	+753.4
v64	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-27 10:06Z → 2026-08-27 19:48Z	9	227	+36	-64	-72	-69.3
v63	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-27 08:12Z → 2026-08-27 10:06Z	3	75	+5	-3	-5	+36.5
v62	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-27 07:18Z → 2026-08-27 08:12Z	3	69	+5	+3	+2	+224.9
v89-twin	paper	evaluating 2026-09-19 16:43Z → running	196	3,632	+191	+1131	+520	+442.2
codex-paper	paper	retired: window-complete 2026-08-22 19:49Z → 2026-08-22 19:49Z	1	40	+0	+13	+4	-
v88-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-09-03 16:10Z → 2026-09-19 12:21Z	1412	26,687	+1027	+5778	+2442	+429.6
v87	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-09-03 00:02Z → 2026-09-03 15:21Z	54	952	-375	+95	-2	-438.5
v86	paper	retired: window-complete 2026-09-02 13:27Z → 2026-09-09 15:32Z	539	13,928	+1183	+3446	+1059	+653.2
v85	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-09-02 10:16Z → 2026-09-02 13:08Z	21	849	+775	+114	-7	+7461.3
v84	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-09-02 02:00Z → 2026-09-02 08:22Z	46	350	-40	+42	+18	+5.7
v83	paper	retired: window-complete 2026-09-01 10:09Z → 2026-09-08 03:32Z	646	11,605	+727	+2860	+835	+533.5
v82	paper	retired: window-complete 2026-08-30 22:07Z → 2026-09-01 09:44Z	177	3,963	+247	+167	-2	+279.2
v80-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-29 22:05Z → 2026-08-30 07:42Z	28	650	+61	+43	+20	+259.9
v77-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-29 16:04Z → 2026-08-29 17:52Z	15	400	-116	+170	+54	+723.9
v75-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-29 13:31Z → 2026-08-29 15:38Z	16	474	-200	+35	-4	-1880.5
v72-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-29 10:14Z → 2026-08-29 12:19Z	11	250	+26	+20	+5	+532.6
v70-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-29 08:17Z → 2026-08-29 08:29Z	6	140	+2	+8	+8	+1241.1
v68	paper	retired: window-complete 2026-08-28 13:52Z → 2026-08-30 18:48Z	73	2,211	+410	+330	+249	+335.1
v67-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-28 08:16Z → 2026-08-29 07:19Z	32	792	+239	+112	+80	+365.9
v65-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-27 20:15Z → 2026-08-28 02:27Z	17	238	-57	+16	+10	-159.6
v64-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-27 10:07Z → 2026-08-27 20:07Z	13	334	+34	-51	-58	-41.4
v63-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-27 08:14Z → 2026-08-27 08:18Z	5	347	+3	+22	+5	+11001.8
v62-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-27 07:20Z → 2026-08-27 07:48Z	6	310	+3	+24	+13	+1336.9
v60-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-27 10:06Z → 2026-08-27 10:06Z	2	50	+3	+0	+0	+109728.0
v59-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 20:46Z → 2026-08-26 20:46Z	3	84	+0	+11	+1	+460637.2
v58-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 12:59Z → 2026-08-26 19:49Z	13	391	-67	+13	-11	-190.2
v57-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 12:24Z → 2026-08-26 12:51Z	2	8	+0	+12	+4	+626.0
v56-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 12:01Z → 2026-08-26 12:10Z	3	110	+0	+75	+49	+11809.4
v55-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 11:41Z → 2026-08-26 11:59Z	5	101	+1	+78	+55	+6374.5
v53-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 10:58Z → 2026-08-26 11:04Z	4	70	+22	+5	-2	+6307.7
v50-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 10:03Z → 2026-08-26 10:33Z	5	121	+34	+28	+21	+2885.8
v45	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 20:32Z → 2026-08-25 21:04Z	8	605	-86	+8	-41	-3429.4
v44	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 20:28Z → 2026-08-25 20:31Z	7	365	+15	-6	-32	+5636.0
v41	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 14:46Z → 2026-08-25 17:58Z	9	656	-481	+3	-5	-3573.8
v39	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 12:44Z → 2026-08-25 13:31Z	1	100	-100	+0	+0	-3092.3
v38	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 12:18Z → 2026-08-25 12:41Z	3	212	-12	+27	+15	+973.2
v37	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 09:45Z → 2026-08-25 09:45Z	1	28	+0	+14	+12	+37215.2
v35	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 08:50Z → 2026-08-25 08:59Z	6	184	+57	+29	+23	+14065.5
v34	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 08:46Z → 2026-08-25 08:47Z	1	131	+57	+0	+0	+258245.1
v20	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-24 13:39Z → 2026-08-24 14:34Z	3	203	-10	+94	+90	+2187.4
v16	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-24 12:42Z → 2026-08-24 13:15Z	15	375	-96	+4	+0	-4042.7
v15	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-24 12:38Z → 2026-08-24 12:39Z	9	250	-77	-26	-26	-111952.5
v14	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-24 12:35Z → 2026-08-24 12:36Z	7	222	-74	-4	-4	-86088.4
v13	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-24 12:31Z → 2026-08-24 12:32Z	8	227	-71	-4	-4	-87939.7
v12	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-24 12:16Z → 2026-08-24 12:17Z	8	222	-67	-4	-4	-92033.7
v11	paper	retired: window-complete 2026-08-23 20:07Z → 2026-08-30 04:03Z	359	10,830	+1707	+1482	+487	+503.8
v10	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-23 08:06Z → 2026-08-23 20:03Z	30	907	+216	+257	+189	+951.2
v9	paper	retired: window-complete 2026-08-22 20:03Z → 2026-08-29 00:28Z	327	7,435	+2028	+972	+410	+485.1
v8	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-22 17:52Z → 2026-08-22 19:52Z	16	400	+76	+8	+3	+1010.6
v7	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-22 08:16Z → 2026-08-22 17:06Z	6	120	+96	+95	+33	+518.9