trader-agent v89

Modules of v89

Own trades and own declines only; each module's page has the reasoning.

down-fadelive

+189 / +271

0bets by entry price1

bets: 21
staked: 390
settled: 4/5 won
realised: +168
open (13) sold: +21
open (13) held: +103
return sold: +49%
return held: +70%

close-longlive

+104 / +104

Longshots at 0.03-0.15 inside 24h of close resolve NO about 95% of the time.

0bets by entry price1

bets: 6
staked: 150
settled: 5/5 won
realised: +104
open (1) sold: +0
open (1) held: +0
return sold: +69%
return held: +69%

close-favlive

+13 / +13

Favourites at 0.90-0.97 inside 24h of close resolve YES about 99% of the time.

0bets by entry price1

bets: 6
staked: 150
settled: 3/3 won
realised: +12
open (3) sold: +0
open (3) held: +1
return sold: +8%
return held: +9%

open-snipelive

+11 / +56

Bets a brand-new untraded market from its opening price toward the historical resolution rate of its cell (type x price x horizon x ante).

0bets by entry price1

bets: 39
staked: 454
settled: none settled yet
realised: +0
open (38) sold: +11
open (38) held: +56
return sold: +2%
return held: +12%

whale-fadelive

+2 / +101

A single 100+ mana YES bet that pushes a mid-life market up 5+ points is overconfident on average; fades it.

0bets by entry price1

bets: 35
staked: 1,602
settled: 3/4 won
realised: +237
open (29) sold: -234
open (29) held: -136
return sold: +0%
return held: +6%

mc-otherlive

+1 / +1

The catch-all 'Other' answer in winner-take-all markets is overpriced above 0.20; buys NO toward 0.12.

0bets by entry price1

bets: 1
staked: 9
settled: none settled yet
realised: +0
open (1) sold: +1
open (1) held: +1
return sold: +12%
return held: +13%

codex-openlive

-26 / +321

A price-blind language-model estimate on each new market; bets only when it disagrees with the price by more than the configured edge.

0bets by entry price1

bets: 74
staked: 2,996
settled: 3/8 won
realised: -157
open (62) sold: +131
open (62) held: +478
return sold: -1%
return held: +11%

mc-indeplive

-30 / -24

Independent multiple-choice answers listed at creation resolve YES far less often than their 0.50 opens imply.

0bets by entry price1

bets: 45
staked: 170
settled: none settled yet
realised: +0
open (45) sold: -30
open (45) held: -24
return sold: -18%
return held: -14%

codex-swingoff

no fills

Exit policy for codex-open positions.

disabled in this version's config

event-makeroff

no fills

Quotes both sides of busy event markets and collects the spread.

disabled in this version's config

numeric-tailshadow

no fills

Buys the lowest bucket of a new numeric or date market.

judged 302 markets, placed nothing

park-nolive

no fills

Parks idle mana as NO in stale mid-priced books instead of leaving it in cash.

judged 146 markets, placed nothing

Trades of v89

when	module	market	bet	result	why
09-22 16:50	codex-open	On what day will the New York Times (NYT) project the winner of the House ×3 answers	YES 121	open -22	luna-medium price-blind says 0.38 vs answer 0.11 (edge +0.27 >= 0.1): Base rate is about 2 of the last 6 midterms (33%) having House control projected on or after Nov. 13; with no resolution rules, ambiguity over whether NYT’s Needle counts as a projection pulls upward toward 0.5, while the Nov. 3 election and possible Dec. 12 Louisiana runoff create delay risk, and the exact resolver is NYT’s 2026 House-results page/Needle rather than proxy media calls.
09-22 16:50	whale-fade	Will AfD become the biggest party in the following german elections	NO 10	open -1	fade: single 218-mana YES bet pushed 0.74->0.91; big YES aggression is overconfident on average
09-22 16:49	codex-open	Old School Runescape Summit/Roadmap Props ×2 answers	NO 79	open -0	luna-medium price-blind says 0.20 vs answer 0.70 (edge -0.50 >= 0.3): Base rate is roughly 25% for a major OSRS raid reveal to specify an exact near-term release month; the current official target is only “late 2026,” and the key scheduled witness is the OSRS RuneFest keynote on October 3, with resolution via Jagex’s official announcement channels, while the rules’ ambiguity between confirming a release window and confirming October specifically warrants a slight pull toward 0.5 ([official poll](https://oldschool.runescape.com/polls/2026/1717), [RuneFest FAQ](https://www.runefest.com/faq)).
09-22 15:58	whale-fade		NO 74	open +4	fade (blind, verify after): single 300-mana YES bet pushed 0.49->0.67; market not in cache
09-22 15:04	codex-open	Will the term Super Intelligents replace Artificial intelligence before EO	NO 55	open +18	luna-medium price-blind says 0.08 vs market 0.43 (edge -0.35 >= 0.2): Base rate: I estimate ~1% for an entrenched technical term to be globally displaced within 100 days; with no resolution rules or exact resolver, “replace” is materially ambiguous and pulls the estimate upward, but official terminology still uses “artificial intelligence” ([ISO](https://www.iso.org/standard/74296.html), [ITU](https://www.itu.int/rec/T-REC-L.Sup61-202506-I)), no scheduled event before December 31 mechanically changes this, and no matching witness market is available.
09-22 15:04	open-snipe	Will the term Super Intelligents replace Artificial intelligence before EO	NO 15	open +11	virgin market: cell [other\|mid\|>=45d\|sm] historically resolves YES 0.33 vs creator open 0.50
09-22 14:49	codex-open	UK Autumn Budget 2026: will a £2 bus fare cap be funded beyond the end of	YES 19	open +0	luna-medium price-blind says 0.55 vs market 0.25 (edge +0.30 >= 0.2): Base rate: the £2-or-lower national cap continued beyond its initial horizon in 1 of 2 prior comparable episodes (50%); the rules are clear, the cost-of-living narrative modestly supports continuation, the scheduled event is the 28 October 2026 Budget, and the exact resolver is HM Treasury’s Budget-day documents or speech (the current £2 cap is funded only through 2027) ([DfT announcement](https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/2-bus-fares-from-january-2027), [HMT Budget date](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/chancellor-letter-to-the-treasury-select-committee-tsc-budget-2026-date)); no matching related-market witness was identified.
09-22 14:48	codex-open	UK Autumn Budget 2026: will the Energy Profits Levy be raised or extended?	YES 42	open -0	luna-medium price-blind says 0.84 vs market 0.35 (edge +0.49 >= 0.2): The 80% historical modification rate, combined with the government’s existing commitment to legislate the successor OGRL and likely confirm it in the 2026 Budget documents, outweighs the chance that the documents omit any qualifying measure.
09-22 14:47	codex-open	UK Autumn Budget 2026: will a new first-time buyer ISA replace the Lifetim	YES 40	open -0	luna-medium price-blind says 0.82 vs market 0.35 (edge +0.47 >= 0.2): Base-rate prior 0.65 for a UK Budget implementing a previously announced, consulted-on reform; the rules require Budget-day confirmation beyond the consultation, but HM Treasury says the new First Time Buyer ISA will replace LISA and Parliament confirms the successor scheme, with the scheduled 28 October Budget/OBR forecast as the key event and HM Treasury’s Budget speech and documents as the exact resolver; no matching-rule witness market was found, so sentiment is discounted.
09-22 14:46	codex-open	Will the UK extend the National Living Wage to 20-year-olds from April 202	YES 36	open +0	luna-medium price-blind says 0.78 vs market 0.40 (edge +0.38 >= 0.2): Base rate: the NLW age threshold has fallen twice since 2016 (about 20% of years), while the LPC proposed 20 in 2027; the rules are clear, the 28 October Budget and end-October LPC advice are the key calendar events, and the exact resolver is a GOV.UK/HMT announcement, with timing flexibility and youth-employment concerns keeping this below certainty.
09-22 14:40	codex-open	UK Autumn Budget 2026: will any working-age benefit be cut or uprated belo	YES 17	open -0	luna-medium price-blind says 0.57 vs market 0.24 (edge +0.33 >= 0.2): Historical base rate for a UK Budget announcing a working-age benefit rate cut or sub-CPI uprating is about 30%, but the existing LCWRA freeze and ongoing welfare-reform pressure raise this to 57%; the main ambiguity is whether 28 October HM Treasury Budget documents confirm that prior measure, with the Budget speech/documents as the exact resolver and no matched-witness market available.
09-22 14:36	codex-open	UK Autumn Budget 2026: will dividend, savings or property income tax rates	YES 13	open -0	luna-medium price-blind says 0.44 vs market 0.22 (edge +0.22 >= 0.2): Base rate: 1 of the last 2 UK Autumn Budgets (50%) raised at least one of these rates; the rules are clear and require a rate increase beyond Budget 2025, while current tax-raising pressure and reports of dividend-tax briefings lift the odds despite narrative risk; no decisive scheduled event precedes the 28 October close, and the exact resolver is the Chancellor's speech plus HM Treasury's Budget-day documents, with no matching related-market witness found.
09-22 14:33	open-snipe	Will the Commons Library's Autumn Budget 2026 reaction briefing cite Polic	YES 5	open -0	virgin market: cell [other\|lo\|>=45d\|sm] historically resolves YES 0.23 vs creator open 0.12
09-22 14:33	open-snipe	Will PolicyEngine publish its UK Autumn Budget analysis by 07:00 GMT on 29	NO 17	open +0	virgin market: cell [other\|mid\|<45d\|sm] historically resolves YES 0.41 vs creator open 0.60
09-22 14:33	open-snipe	UK Autumn Budget 2026: will taxes on banks be increased?	NO 10	open -0	virgin market: cell [other\|mid\|<45d\|sm] historically resolves YES 0.41 vs creator open 0.50
09-22 14:33	open-snipe	UK Autumn Budget 2026: will business rates relief be widened beyond pubs a	NO 10	open -0	virgin market: cell [other\|mid\|<45d\|sm] historically resolves YES 0.41 vs creator open 0.50
09-22 14:32	open-snipe	UK Autumn Budget 2026: will any working-age benefit be cut or uprated belo	YES 5	open +3	virgin market: cell [other\|lo\|<45d\|sm] historically resolves YES 0.29 vs creator open 0.20
09-22 14:32	open-snipe	UK Autumn Budget 2026: will 0% VAT on home electricity be extended past Ma	NO 17	open +0	virgin market: cell [other\|mid\|<45d\|sm] historically resolves YES 0.41 vs creator open 0.60
09-22 14:32	open-snipe	UK Autumn Budget 2026: will NICs be extended to rental, investment or pens	YES 8	open -0	virgin market: cell [other\|lo\|<45d\|sm] historically resolves YES 0.29 vs creator open 0.07
09-22 14:32	open-snipe	UK Autumn Budget 2026: will employer NICs be cut or the secondary threshol	YES 7	open -0	virgin market: cell [other\|lo\|<45d\|sm] historically resolves YES 0.29 vs creator open 0.15
09-22 14:32	open-snipe	UK Autumn Budget 2026: will the pension tax-free lump sum be cut or capped	YES 8	open +0	virgin market: cell [other\|lo\|<45d\|sm] historically resolves YES 0.29 vs creator open 0.12
09-22 14:32	open-snipe	UK Autumn Budget 2026: will an annual wealth tax be announced?	YES 8	open -0	virgin market: cell [other\|lo\|<45d\|sm] historically resolves YES 0.29 vs creator open 0.10
09-22 14:32	open-snipe	UK Autumn Budget 2026: will income tax rates, employee NICs and VAT rates	NO 10	open +0	virgin market: cell [other\|hi\|<45d\|sm] historically resolves YES 0.65 vs creator open 0.85
09-22 14:32	open-snipe	UK Autumn Budget 2026: will the CGT uplift on death be abolished or restri	YES 8	open +0	virgin market: cell [other\|lo\|<45d\|sm] historically resolves YES 0.29 vs creator open 0.12
09-22 14:32	open-snipe	UK Autumn Budget 2026: will CGT rates be fully aligned with income tax rat	YES 8	open +0	virgin market: cell [other\|lo\|<45d\|sm] historically resolves YES 0.29 vs creator open 0.10
09-22 14:32	open-snipe	UK Autumn Budget 2026: will any main capital gains tax rate rise?	NO 16	open +0	virgin market: cell [other\|mid\|<45d\|sm] historically resolves YES 0.41 vs creator open 0.58
09-22 13:55	codex-open	Who will win the 2026 League of Legends World Championship? ×4 answers	YES 144	open -41	luna-medium price-blind says 0.23 vs answer 0.06 (edge +0.17 >= 0.1): BLG is a genuine top contender and already qualified, but the 19-team base rate is only 5.3%, several LCK/LPL teams appear comparably strong, and thin proxy-market prices support roughly a low-to-mid-20% chance.
09-22 12:24	close-fav	Will the address for math.eg.rego.re have a balance of more than $25 befor	YES 25	open -0	favorite band 0.90-0.97 within 24h of close resolves YES 99%

Showing the newest 28 of 151 trades (227 bets); each module page carries its whole book.

The lineage

version	mana	status · window	bets	staked	realised	open held	open sold	per day
v89	real	live in prod 2026-09-19 16:42Z → running	227	5,920	+364	+481	-101	+276.7
v88	real	retired, book still settling 2026-09-03 13:36Z → 2026-09-19 16:42Z	1117	30,685	+810	+4119	+1344	+305.6
v81	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-30 09:55Z → 2026-09-03 13:36Z	393	13,334	+1709	+697	-58	+579.2
v80	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 19:42Z → 2026-08-30 09:55Z	26	595	+7	-1	-6	+11.3
v78	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 17:15Z → 2026-08-29 19:28Z	11	411	+25	-47	-71	-242.6
v77	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 16:03Z → 2026-08-29 17:15Z	5	247	-18	-32	-52	-985.7
v77	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 16:03Z → 2026-08-29 17:15Z	5	247	-18	-32	-52	-985.7
v76	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 15:27Z → 2026-08-29 16:02Z	10	298	+320	+0	+0	+13115.0
v75	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 13:01Z → 2026-08-29 15:27Z	13	218	+149	+0	+0	+1479.0
v74	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 10:35Z → 2026-08-29 13:01Z	12	128	+23	-14	-22	+89.3
v73	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 10:24Z → 2026-08-29 10:35Z	10	250	+3	+2	+1	+616.5
v72	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 10:12Z → 2026-08-29 10:24Z	5	125	+2	+1	+1	+343.1
v71	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 10:03Z → 2026-08-29 10:12Z	5	125	+2	+2	+2	+553.2
v70	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 06:12Z → 2026-08-29 10:03Z	9	150	-9	+8	+8	-3.0
v67	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-28 07:38Z → 2026-08-29 06:12Z	27	475	-108	+40	+21	-72.3
v66	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-28 06:43Z → 2026-08-28 07:38Z	2	50	+1	+0	-0	+36.5
v65	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-27 19:48Z → 2026-08-28 06:43Z	18	253	+340	+3	-3	+753.4
v64	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-27 10:06Z → 2026-08-27 19:48Z	9	227	+36	-64	-72	-69.3
v63	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-27 08:12Z → 2026-08-27 10:06Z	3	75	+5	-3	-5	+36.5
v62	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-27 07:18Z → 2026-08-27 08:12Z	3	69	+5	+3	+2	+224.9
v89-twin	paper	evaluating 2026-09-19 16:43Z → running	206	3,915	+489	+1110	+361	+524.1
codex-paper	paper	retired: window-complete 2026-08-22 19:49Z → 2026-08-22 19:49Z	1	40	+0	+13	+4	-
v88-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-09-03 16:10Z → 2026-09-19 12:21Z	1412	26,687	+1155	+5625	+2304	+428.0
v87	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-09-03 00:02Z → 2026-09-03 15:21Z	54	952	-373	+93	-4	-438.4
v86	paper	retired: window-complete 2026-09-02 13:27Z → 2026-09-09 15:32Z	539	13,928	+1185	+3450	+1065	+654.1
v85	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-09-02 10:16Z → 2026-09-02 13:08Z	21	849	+775	+114	-7	+7461.3
v84	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-09-02 02:00Z → 2026-09-02 08:22Z	46	350	-40	+42	+18	+5.7
v83	paper	retired: window-complete 2026-09-01 10:09Z → 2026-09-08 03:32Z	646	11,605	+729	+2858	+833	+533.3
v82	paper	retired: window-complete 2026-08-30 22:07Z → 2026-09-01 09:44Z	177	3,963	+247	+167	-2	+279.2
v80-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-29 22:05Z → 2026-08-30 07:42Z	28	650	+61	+43	+20	+259.9
v77-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-29 16:04Z → 2026-08-29 17:52Z	15	400	-116	+170	+54	+723.9
v75-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-29 13:31Z → 2026-08-29 15:38Z	16	474	-200	+35	-4	-1880.5
v72-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-29 10:14Z → 2026-08-29 12:19Z	11	250	+26	+20	+5	+532.6
v70-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-29 08:17Z → 2026-08-29 08:29Z	6	140	+2	+8	+8	+1241.1
v68	paper	retired: window-complete 2026-08-28 13:52Z → 2026-08-30 18:48Z	73	2,211	+410	+330	+249	+335.1
v67-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-28 08:16Z → 2026-08-29 07:19Z	32	792	+239	+112	+80	+365.9
v65-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-27 20:15Z → 2026-08-28 02:27Z	17	238	-57	+16	+10	-159.6
v64-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-27 10:07Z → 2026-08-27 20:07Z	13	334	+34	-51	-58	-41.4
v63-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-27 08:14Z → 2026-08-27 08:18Z	5	347	+3	+22	+5	+11001.8
v62-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-27 07:20Z → 2026-08-27 07:48Z	6	310	+3	+24	+13	+1336.9
v60-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-27 10:06Z → 2026-08-27 10:06Z	2	50	+3	+0	+0	+109728.0
v59-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 20:46Z → 2026-08-26 20:46Z	3	84	+0	+11	+1	+460637.2
v58-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 12:59Z → 2026-08-26 19:49Z	13	391	-67	+13	-13	-192.9
v57-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 12:24Z → 2026-08-26 12:51Z	2	8	+0	+12	+4	+626.0
v56-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 12:01Z → 2026-08-26 12:10Z	3	110	+0	+75	+49	+11809.4
v55-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 11:41Z → 2026-08-26 11:59Z	5	101	+1	+78	+55	+6374.5
v53-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 10:58Z → 2026-08-26 11:04Z	4	70	+22	+5	-2	+6307.7
v50-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 10:03Z → 2026-08-26 10:33Z	5	121	+34	+28	+21	+2885.8
v45	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 20:32Z → 2026-08-25 21:04Z	8	605	-86	+8	-41	-3429.4
v44	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 20:28Z → 2026-08-25 20:31Z	7	365	+15	-6	-32	+5636.0
v41	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 14:46Z → 2026-08-25 17:58Z	9	656	-481	+3	-5	-3573.8
v39	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 12:44Z → 2026-08-25 13:31Z	1	100	-100	+0	+0	-3092.3
v38	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 12:18Z → 2026-08-25 12:41Z	3	212	-12	+27	+15	+973.2
v37	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 09:45Z → 2026-08-25 09:45Z	1	28	+0	+14	+12	+37215.2
v35	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 08:50Z → 2026-08-25 08:59Z	6	184	+57	+29	+23	+14065.5
v34	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 08:46Z → 2026-08-25 08:47Z	1	131	+57	+0	+0	+258245.1
v20	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-24 13:39Z → 2026-08-24 14:34Z	3	203	-10	+94	+90	+2187.4
v16	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-24 12:42Z → 2026-08-24 13:15Z	15	375	-96	+4	+0	-4042.7
v15	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-24 12:38Z → 2026-08-24 12:39Z	9	250	-77	-26	-26	-111952.5
v14	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-24 12:35Z → 2026-08-24 12:36Z	7	222	-74	-4	-4	-86088.4
v13	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-24 12:31Z → 2026-08-24 12:32Z	8	227	-71	-4	-4	-87939.7
v12	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-24 12:16Z → 2026-08-24 12:17Z	8	222	-67	-4	-4	-92033.7
v11	paper	retired: window-complete 2026-08-23 20:07Z → 2026-08-30 04:03Z	359	10,830	+1707	+1483	+488	+504.0
v10	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-23 08:06Z → 2026-08-23 20:03Z	30	907	+216	+257	+189	+951.2
v9	paper	retired: window-complete 2026-08-22 20:03Z → 2026-08-29 00:28Z	327	7,435	+2028	+973	+411	+485.3
v8	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-22 17:52Z → 2026-08-22 19:52Z	16	400	+76	+8	+3	+1010.6
v7	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-22 08:16Z → 2026-08-22 17:06Z	6	120	+96	+95	+33	+518.9