Own trades and own declines only; each module's page has the reasoning.
A price-blind language-model estimate on each new market; bets only when it disagrees with the price by more than the configured edge.
0bets by entry price1Collects both close-window bands: favourites at 0.90-0.97 and longshots at 0.03-0.15 inside 24h of close. Its bets are labelled close-fav / close-long.
judged 360 markets, placed nothing
Independent multiple-choice answers listed at creation resolve YES far less often than their 0.50 opens imply.
judged 102 markets, placed nothing
The catch-all 'Other' answer in winner-take-all markets is overpriced above 0.20; buys NO toward 0.12.
judged 102 markets, placed nothing
Bets a brand-new untraded market from its opening price toward the historical resolution rate of its cell (type x price x horizon x ante).
judged 102 markets, placed nothing
Parks idle mana as NO in stale mid-priced books instead of leaving it in cash.
judged 6 markets, placed nothing
A single 100+ mana YES bet that pushes a mid-life market up 5+ points is overconfident on average; fades it.
judged 9 markets, placed nothing
| when | module | market | bet | 0 · price · 1 | result | why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-25 09:45 | codex-open | Will at least one woman walk on the Moon during the first landing of the A | YES 28 | open +12 | luna-medium price-blind says 0.74 vs market 0.50 (edge +0.24 >= 0.2): NASA’s current plan designates Artemis IV as the first lunar landing, targeting early 2028, and repeatedly states that Artemis will land the first woman on the Moon. The main discount is schedule and technical risk: NASA’s Inspect |
| version | mana | status · window | bets | staked | realised | open held | open sold | per day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| v89 | real | live in prod 2026-09-19 16:42Z → running | 221 | 5,709 | +338 | +386 | -116 | +242.3 |
| v88 | real | retired, book still settling 2026-09-03 13:36Z → 2026-09-19 16:42Z | 1117 | 30,685 | +928 | +4016 | +1235 | +306.5 |
| v81 | real | retired, book still settling 2026-08-30 09:55Z → 2026-09-03 13:36Z | 393 | 13,334 | +1646 | +760 | +5 | +579.2 |
| v80 | real | retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 19:42Z → 2026-08-30 09:55Z | 26 | 595 | +7 | -1 | -6 | +11.3 |
| v78 | real | retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 17:15Z → 2026-08-29 19:28Z | 11 | 411 | +25 | -47 | -71 | -242.6 |
| v77 | real | retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 16:03Z → 2026-08-29 17:15Z | 5 | 247 | -18 | -32 | -52 | -985.7 |
| v77 | real | retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 16:03Z → 2026-08-29 17:15Z | 5 | 247 | -18 | -32 | -52 | -985.7 |
| v76 | real | retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 15:27Z → 2026-08-29 16:02Z | 10 | 298 | +320 | +0 | +0 | +13115.0 |
| v75 | real | retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 13:01Z → 2026-08-29 15:27Z | 13 | 218 | +149 | +0 | +0 | +1479.0 |
| v74 | real | retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 10:35Z → 2026-08-29 13:01Z | 12 | 128 | +23 | -14 | -22 | +89.3 |
| v73 | real | retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 10:24Z → 2026-08-29 10:35Z | 10 | 250 | +3 | +2 | +1 | +616.5 |
| v72 | real | retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 10:12Z → 2026-08-29 10:24Z | 5 | 125 | +2 | +1 | +1 | +343.1 |
| v71 | real | retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 10:03Z → 2026-08-29 10:12Z | 5 | 125 | +2 | +2 | +2 | +553.2 |
| v70 | real | retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 06:12Z → 2026-08-29 10:03Z | 9 | 150 | -9 | +8 | +8 | -3.0 |
| v67 | real | retired, book still settling 2026-08-28 07:38Z → 2026-08-29 06:12Z | 27 | 475 | -108 | +40 | +21 | -72.3 |
| v66 | real | retired, book still settling 2026-08-28 06:43Z → 2026-08-28 07:38Z | 2 | 50 | +1 | +0 | -0 | +36.5 |
| v65 | real | retired, book still settling 2026-08-27 19:48Z → 2026-08-28 06:43Z | 18 | 253 | +340 | +3 | -3 | +753.4 |
| v64 | real | retired, book still settling 2026-08-27 10:06Z → 2026-08-27 19:48Z | 9 | 227 | +36 | -64 | -72 | -69.3 |
| v63 | real | retired, book still settling 2026-08-27 08:12Z → 2026-08-27 10:06Z | 3 | 75 | +5 | -3 | -5 | +36.5 |
| v62 | real | retired, book still settling 2026-08-27 07:18Z → 2026-08-27 08:12Z | 3 | 69 | +5 | +3 | +2 | +224.9 |
| v89-twin | paper | evaluating 2026-09-19 16:43Z → running | 196 | 3,632 | +191 | +1131 | +520 | +442.7 |
| codex-paper | paper | retired: window-complete 2026-08-22 19:49Z → 2026-08-22 19:49Z | 1 | 40 | +0 | +13 | +4 | - |
| v88-twin | paper | retired: prod-moved 2026-09-03 16:10Z → 2026-09-19 12:21Z | 1412 | 26,687 | +1027 | +5778 | +2442 | +429.6 |
| v87 | paper | retired: superseded-same-day 2026-09-03 00:02Z → 2026-09-03 15:21Z | 54 | 952 | -375 | +95 | -2 | -438.5 |
| v86 | paper | retired: window-complete 2026-09-02 13:27Z → 2026-09-09 15:32Z | 539 | 13,928 | +1183 | +3446 | +1059 | +653.2 |
| v85 | paper | retired: superseded-same-day 2026-09-02 10:16Z → 2026-09-02 13:08Z | 21 | 849 | +775 | +114 | -7 | +7461.3 |
| v84 | paper | retired: superseded-same-day 2026-09-02 02:00Z → 2026-09-02 08:22Z | 46 | 350 | -40 | +42 | +18 | +5.7 |
| v83 | paper | retired: window-complete 2026-09-01 10:09Z → 2026-09-08 03:32Z | 646 | 11,605 | +727 | +2860 | +835 | +533.5 |
| v82 | paper | retired: window-complete 2026-08-30 22:07Z → 2026-09-01 09:44Z | 177 | 3,963 | +247 | +167 | -2 | +279.2 |
| v80-twin | paper | retired: prod-moved 2026-08-29 22:05Z → 2026-08-30 07:42Z | 28 | 650 | +61 | +43 | +20 | +259.9 |
| v77-twin | paper | retired: prod-moved 2026-08-29 16:04Z → 2026-08-29 17:52Z | 15 | 400 | -116 | +170 | +54 | +723.9 |
| v75-twin | paper | retired: prod-moved 2026-08-29 13:31Z → 2026-08-29 15:38Z | 16 | 474 | -200 | +35 | -4 | -1880.5 |
| v72-twin | paper | retired: prod-moved 2026-08-29 10:14Z → 2026-08-29 12:19Z | 11 | 250 | +26 | +20 | +5 | +532.6 |
| v70-twin | paper | retired: prod-moved 2026-08-29 08:17Z → 2026-08-29 08:29Z | 6 | 140 | +2 | +8 | +8 | +1241.1 |
| v68 | paper | retired: window-complete 2026-08-28 13:52Z → 2026-08-30 18:48Z | 73 | 2,211 | +410 | +330 | +249 | +335.1 |
| v67-twin | paper | retired: prod-moved 2026-08-28 08:16Z → 2026-08-29 07:19Z | 32 | 792 | +239 | +112 | +80 | +365.9 |
| v65-twin | paper | retired: prod-moved 2026-08-27 20:15Z → 2026-08-28 02:27Z | 17 | 238 | -57 | +16 | +10 | -159.6 |
| v64-twin | paper | retired: prod-moved 2026-08-27 10:07Z → 2026-08-27 20:07Z | 13 | 334 | +34 | -51 | -58 | -41.4 |
| v63-twin | paper | retired: prod-moved 2026-08-27 08:14Z → 2026-08-27 08:18Z | 5 | 347 | +3 | +22 | +5 | +11001.8 |
| v62-twin | paper | retired: prod-moved 2026-08-27 07:20Z → 2026-08-27 07:48Z | 6 | 310 | +3 | +24 | +13 | +1336.9 |
| v60-twin | paper | retired: prod-moved 2026-08-27 10:06Z → 2026-08-27 10:06Z | 2 | 50 | +3 | +0 | +0 | +109728.0 |
| v59-twin | paper | retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 20:46Z → 2026-08-26 20:46Z | 3 | 84 | +0 | +11 | +1 | +460637.2 |
| v58-twin | paper | retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 12:59Z → 2026-08-26 19:49Z | 13 | 391 | -67 | +13 | -11 | -190.2 |
| v57-twin | paper | retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 12:24Z → 2026-08-26 12:51Z | 2 | 8 | +0 | +12 | +4 | +626.0 |
| v56-twin | paper | retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 12:01Z → 2026-08-26 12:10Z | 3 | 110 | +0 | +75 | +49 | +11809.4 |
| v55-twin | paper | retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 11:41Z → 2026-08-26 11:59Z | 5 | 101 | +1 | +78 | +55 | +6374.5 |
| v53-twin | paper | retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 10:58Z → 2026-08-26 11:04Z | 4 | 70 | +22 | +5 | -2 | +6307.7 |
| v50-twin | paper | retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 10:03Z → 2026-08-26 10:33Z | 5 | 121 | +34 | +28 | +21 | +2885.8 |
| v45 | paper | retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 20:32Z → 2026-08-25 21:04Z | 8 | 605 | -86 | +8 | -41 | -3429.4 |
| v44 | paper | retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 20:28Z → 2026-08-25 20:31Z | 7 | 365 | +15 | -6 | -32 | +5636.0 |
| v41 | paper | retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 14:46Z → 2026-08-25 17:58Z | 9 | 656 | -481 | +3 | -5 | -3573.8 |
| v39 | paper | retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 12:44Z → 2026-08-25 13:31Z | 1 | 100 | -100 | +0 | +0 | -3092.3 |
| v38 | paper | retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 12:18Z → 2026-08-25 12:41Z | 3 | 212 | -12 | +27 | +15 | +973.2 |
| v37 | paper | retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 09:45Z → 2026-08-25 09:45Z | 1 | 28 | +0 | +14 | +12 | +37215.2 |
| v35 | paper | retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 08:50Z → 2026-08-25 08:59Z | 6 | 184 | +57 | +29 | +23 | +14065.5 |
| v34 | paper | retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 08:46Z → 2026-08-25 08:47Z | 1 | 131 | +57 | +0 | +0 | +258245.1 |
| v20 | paper | retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-24 13:39Z → 2026-08-24 14:34Z | 3 | 203 | -10 | +94 | +90 | +2187.4 |
| v16 | paper | retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-24 12:42Z → 2026-08-24 13:15Z | 15 | 375 | -96 | +4 | +0 | -4042.7 |
| v15 | paper | retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-24 12:38Z → 2026-08-24 12:39Z | 9 | 250 | -77 | -26 | -26 | -111952.5 |
| v14 | paper | retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-24 12:35Z → 2026-08-24 12:36Z | 7 | 222 | -74 | -4 | -4 | -86088.4 |
| v13 | paper | retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-24 12:31Z → 2026-08-24 12:32Z | 8 | 227 | -71 | -4 | -4 | -87939.7 |
| v12 | paper | retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-24 12:16Z → 2026-08-24 12:17Z | 8 | 222 | -67 | -4 | -4 | -92033.7 |
| v11 | paper | retired: window-complete 2026-08-23 20:07Z → 2026-08-30 04:03Z | 359 | 10,830 | +1707 | +1482 | +487 | +503.8 |
| v10 | paper | retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-23 08:06Z → 2026-08-23 20:03Z | 30 | 907 | +216 | +257 | +189 | +951.2 |
| v9 | paper | retired: window-complete 2026-08-22 20:03Z → 2026-08-29 00:28Z | 327 | 7,435 | +2028 | +972 | +410 | +485.1 |
| v8 | paper | retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-22 17:52Z → 2026-08-22 19:52Z | 16 | 400 | +76 | +8 | +3 | +1010.6 |
| v7 | paper | retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-22 08:16Z → 2026-08-22 17:06Z | 6 | 120 | +96 | +95 | +33 | +518.9 |