A market that is still a heavy favourite with hours left has very little time left to be wrong. This module works the last 24 hours of a market's life and takes the side the clock favours: buy YES at 0.90–0.97, buy NO at 0.03–0.15. Nothing in the middle, and nothing whose price is just an untouched ante.
Time runs toward the close on the right-hand end, because that is the direction opportunity moves here: a market enters this module's world by running out of time, not by changing price. Dots outside the two lanes were seen and left alone. 31 trades from the book at their price and hours-to-close when placed, ringed.
No decisions traced by this version.
| utc | version | market | bet | result | why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-08 00:15 | v83 | Will Chris Pappas win the 2026 New Hampshire Democratic Primary for Senate? | YES 25 | settled +1 | favorite band 0.90-0.97 within 24h of close resolves YES 99% |
| 09-07 20:14 | v83 | Will Dan McKee be renominated for Governor of Rhode Island in 2026? | NO 25 | settled +1 | longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95% |
| 09-07 17:14 | v83 | Will the official high at SAN reach 85.0°F or higher on any day during Labor Day Weekend? (San Diego) | YES 25 | settled +2 | favorite band 0.90-0.97 within 24h of close resolves YES 99% |
| 09-07 12:11 | v83 | Will the address for math.eg.rego.re have a balance of more than $100 before Sep 8? | NO 25 | settled +4 | longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95% |
| 09-06 19:30 | v83 | BSW receives at least 5% and enters the Saxony-Anhalt Landtag | YES 25 | settled +3 | favorite band 0.90-0.97 within 24h of close resolves YES 99% |
| 09-06 07:57 | v83 | Will the AfD win an absolute majority in the state election in Saxony-Anhalt in 2026 | NO 25 | settled +2 | longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95% |
| 09-06 00:27 | v83 | SPD above 5% in 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election? | YES 25 | settled +1 | favorite band 0.90-0.97 within 24h of close resolves YES 99% |
| 09-05 23:26 | v83 | Will Rocco perform his signature 'Dance Floor Hump' at Greg's wedding reception? | YES 25 | open -0 | favorite band 0.90-0.97 within 24h of close resolves YES 99% |
| 09-05 23:26 | v83 | BSW receives at least 5% and enters the Saxony-Anhalt Landtag | NO 25 | settled +3 | longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95% |
| 09-03 12:41 | v83 | Will August 2026 U.S. nonfarm payroll employment increase by at least 150,000? | NO 25 | open +0 | longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95% |
| 09-03 12:40 | v83 | Will the August 2026 U.S. unemployment rate be at least 4.5%? | NO 25 | open +0 | longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95% |
| 09-03 07:10 | v83 | Did Something Happen with GLM-5.3 Flash? | NO 25 | settled +1 | longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95% |
| 09-03 07:10 | v83 | Will we finally pull ourselves together and avoid being wiped out by AI? | NO 25 | settled +1 | longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95% |
| 09-02 18:23 | v83 | Did Something Happen with GLM-5.3 Flash? | NO 25 | settled +1 | longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95% |
| 09-02 14:51 | v83 | Will we finally pull ourselves together and avoid being wiped out by AI? | NO 25 | settled +1 | longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95% |
| 09-02 11:20 | v83 | Will Alcaraz win the next round at the US open? C.Alcaraz vs J.Faria | YES 25 | settled +2 | favorite band 0.90-0.97 within 24h of close resolves YES 99% |
| 09-02 07:19 | v83 | Will Dylan Matthew beat Community Prediction (Metaculus Summer Cup) | NO 25 | settled +1 | longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95% |
| 09-02 04:46 | v83 | Will the percentage of wikipedia users who donate at least one time reach 4% in the next 3 years (2026)? | NO 25 | open +3 | longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95% |
| 09-02 00:15 | v83 | Will Julian Alvarez be sold to Barcelona by the end of the summer transfer window? | NO 25 | settled +1 | longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95% |
| 09-01 13:13 | v83 | Will the percent of Pakistanis in extreme poverty be above 5 percent in 2023? | YES 25 | settled +3 | favorite band 0.90-0.97 within 24h of close resolves YES 99% |
| 09-01 11:43 | v83 | No-one ever got fired for buying charmm36m, still true by Sept 2026 | NO 25 | settled +4 | longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95% |
| 09-01 10:13 | v83 | WPlace Colors vs Void: Which side will win? | NO 25 | settled +1 | longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95% |
| 09-01 10:13 | v83 | Will Uber raise the default minimum suggested tip? | NO 25 | settled +3 | longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95% |
| 09-01 10:13 | v83 | Anglo American & Teck Resources merge by Sep 1, 2026 | NO 25 | settled +1 | longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95% |
| 09-01 10:13 | v83 | Will Jair Bolsonaro run for the Senate in 2026? | NO 25 | open +0 | longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95% |
| 09-01 10:13 | v83 | Will Pentagon reverse course on Anthropic before September 2, 2026 deadline? | NO 25 | settled +1 | longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95% |
| 09-01 10:13 | v83 | Will the silver spot price be above $75 USD on September 1st? | NO 25 | settled +1 | longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95% |
| 09-01 10:13 | v83 | Will we conclude Tesla launched level 4 robotaxis in summer 2025? | NO 25 | open -2 | longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95% |
| 09-01 10:13 | v83 | Will Puella Magi Madoka Magica: Walpurgisnacht Rising contain a magical girl first introduced in Magia Record? | NO 25 | open -0 | longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95% |
| 09-01 10:13 | v83 | Will the DC Circuit rule for Anthropic on the merits in the Pentagon supply chain case by Aug 31, 2026? | NO 25 | open +1 | longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95% |
| 09-01 10:13 | v83 | Trump says or posts something deprecating about Dolly Parton within a week of her passing | NO 25 | settled +1 | longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95% |
31 trades, 775 staked, realised +42, open +3 if held / +2 if sold.
31 collected for 775 mana, of which
7 on the favourite side.
The band edges matter more than the
stake: this module is buying near-certainty, so a single wrong one costs
several right ones.
Traces are diagnostic and rotate; the trading journal is separate.
Built 2026-09-22 18:05Z.