paper · 2026-08-26 12:59Z → 2026-08-26 19:49Z
v58-twinpaper
retired: prod-moved9 live · 1 shadow · 1 off
bets
13 6 settled
staked
391
realised
-67
open, if held
+13
open, if sold
-11
per day
-190.2

Evaluation

v58-twinpaper window 2026-08-26 13:57Z → now, 0.3 d resolved 0 / 40 retired: prod-moved
sim
+0.0 /day prod, same window
+0.0 /day
HOLD noise floor ±0.0/day (5 pts of prod stake) · markets bet by both 0

Modules of v58-twin

Own trades and own declines only; each module's page has the reasoning.

codex-openlive

+10 / +24

A price-blind language-model estimate on each new market; bets only when it disagrees with the price by more than the configured edge.

0bets by entry price1
bets
5
staked
184
settled
0/1 won
realised
-28
open (4) sold
+38
open (4) held
+52
return sold
+5%
return held
+13%

close-favlive

-4 / -4

Favourites at 0.90-0.97 inside 24h of close resolve YES about 99% of the time.

0bets by entry price1
bets
1
staked
25
settled
0/1 won
realised
-4
open (0) sold
+0
open (0) held
+0
return sold
-18%
return held
-18%

whale-fadelive

-25 / -25

A single 100+ mana YES bet that pushes a mid-life market up 5+ points is overconfident on average; fades it.

0bets by entry price1
bets
1
staked
25
settled
0/1 won
realised
-25
open (0) sold
+0
open (0) held
+0
return sold
-100%
return held
-100%

open-snipelive

-59 / -49

Bets a brand-new untraded market from its opening price toward the historical resolution rate of its cell (type x price x horizon x ante).

0bets by entry price1
bets
6
staked
157
settled
1/3 won
realised
-10
open (3) sold
-49
open (3) held
-39
return sold
-38%
return held
-31%

mc-indeplive

no fills

Independent multiple-choice answers listed at creation resolve YES far less often than their 0.50 opens imply.

judged 134 markets, placed nothing

mc-otherlive

no fills

The catch-all 'Other' answer in winner-take-all markets is overpriced above 0.20; buys NO toward 0.12.

judged 134 markets, placed nothing

numeric-tailshadow

no fills

Buys the lowest bucket of a new numeric or date market.

judged 134 markets, placed nothing

park-nolive

no fills

Parks idle mana as NO in stale mid-priced books instead of leaving it in cash.

judged 16 markets, placed nothing

Trades of v58-twin

whenmodulemarketbet0 · price · 1resultwhy
08-26 19:49open-snipeWill Daniel Lord livestream between Aug 28 and September 11 in 2026?NO 9settled -9virgin market: cell [other|mid|<45d|sm] historically resolves YES 0.41 vs creator open 0.50
08-26 19:21codex-openWhich frontier lab will top the Epoch Capabilities Index EOY 2027?YES 3open +1luna-medium price-blind says 0.39 vs answer 0.25 (edge +0.14 >= 0.1): Base rate: among 17 post-GPT-4 ECI leaders, median reign was about 7 weeks and only GPT-4 lasted 352 days; rules are clear and resolve by Epoch’s general ECI point estimate, whose current leader is OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 Pro at 161.29 v
08-26 18:40open-snipeWill the AI Village agents adopt a charter AND hold an election by NovembeYES 9open +1virgin market: cell [ai|lo|>=45d|sm] historically resolves YES 0.32 vs creator open 0.15
08-26 18:38open-snipeWill the iPhone 18 Pro start above $1,300 ?NO 9settled +9virgin market: cell [other|mid|<45d|sm] historically resolves YES 0.41 vs creator open 0.50
08-26 18:30close-favOutcome of India vs Sri Lanka Test series (Aug 2026)YES 25settled -4favorite band 0.90-0.97 within 24h of close resolves YES 99%
08-26 18:25open-snipe🇺🇸 Will the Fed raise interest rates in September 2026?NO 9settled -9virgin market: cell [other|mid|<45d|sm] historically resolves YES 0.41 vs creator open 0.50
08-26 18:07open-snipeWill Fable 5.1 still trigger safeguards all the time?NO 60open -0virgin market: cell [other|hi|<45d|lg] historically resolves YES 0.38 vs creator open 0.80
08-26 17:19codex-openWill tobey maguire die in avengers doomsday?NO 100open -1luna-medium price-blind says 0.04 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.46 >= 0.2): Maguire’s appearance looks unlikely and, even if he appears, his death is a low-base-rate outcome.
08-26 16:54codex-openWhich company's model will be #1 on Artificial Analysis by the end of SeptYES 17open +51luna-medium price-blind says 0.64 vs answer 0.11 (edge +0.53 >= 0.1): Anthropic has both the current #1 and #2 models, but rapid frontier-model turnover and late-September release catalysts leave a substantial chance that OpenAI, Google, or another lab overtakes it by the exact Artificial Analysis c
08-26 15:54open-snipeStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [PolymarkeYES 60open -50virgin market: cell [other|lo|<45d|lg] historically resolves YES 0.31 vs creator open 0.08
08-26 14:48codex-openMLB: Will the Houston Astros sweep the Chicago White Sox OR will the 4-gamYES 28settled -28luna-medium price-blind says 0.74 vs market 0.50 (edge +0.24 >= 0.2): Base rate: 4-game MLB sweeps occur about 10–14%, while the teams’ roughly 9.3 combined runs/game implies about a 70–73% chance of reaching 34 runs; the clear rules make this a union, with modest added sweep probability, minimal po
08-26 13:57codex-openWill Nigel Farage and Rupert Lowe manage to pull off a 'Unite the Right'?NO 36open -13luna-medium price-blind says 0.20 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.30 >= 0.2): Base rate for comparable formal cross-party pacts after acrimonious UK party splits is roughly 15%; the rules require an explicit pact, merger, or Electoral Commission-recognized coalition, while Farage rejected Lowe’s conditions
08-26 13:57whale-fadeWill Canada retaliate and impose tariffs against the US by Sept 15NO 25settled -25fade: single 75-mana YES bet pushed 0.64->0.81; big YES aggression is overconfident on average

The lineage

versionmanastatus · windowbetsstakedrealisedopen heldopen soldper day
v89reallive in prod
2026-09-19 16:42Z → running		2215,709+338+388-114+242.4
v88realretired, book still settling
2026-09-03 13:36Z → 2026-09-19 16:42Z		111730,685+928+3993+1216+305.1
v81realretired, book still settling
2026-08-30 09:55Z → 2026-09-03 13:36Z		39313,334+1646+760+5+579.2
v80realretired, book still settling
2026-08-29 19:42Z → 2026-08-30 09:55Z		26595+7-1-6+11.3
v78realretired, book still settling
2026-08-29 17:15Z → 2026-08-29 19:28Z		11411+25-47-71-242.6
v77realretired, book still settling
2026-08-29 16:03Z → 2026-08-29 17:15Z		5247-18-32-52-985.7
v77realretired, book still settling
2026-08-29 16:03Z → 2026-08-29 17:15Z		5247-18-32-52-985.7
v76realretired, book still settling
2026-08-29 15:27Z → 2026-08-29 16:02Z		10298+320+0+0+13115.0
v75realretired, book still settling
2026-08-29 13:01Z → 2026-08-29 15:27Z		13218+149+0+0+1479.0
v74realretired, book still settling
2026-08-29 10:35Z → 2026-08-29 13:01Z		12128+23-14-22+89.3
v73realretired, book still settling
2026-08-29 10:24Z → 2026-08-29 10:35Z		10250+3+2+1+616.5
v72realretired, book still settling
2026-08-29 10:12Z → 2026-08-29 10:24Z		5125+2+1+1+343.1
v71realretired, book still settling
2026-08-29 10:03Z → 2026-08-29 10:12Z		5125+2+2+2+553.2
v70realretired, book still settling
2026-08-29 06:12Z → 2026-08-29 10:03Z		9150-9+8+8-3.0
v67realretired, book still settling
2026-08-28 07:38Z → 2026-08-29 06:12Z		27475-108+40+21-72.3
v66realretired, book still settling
2026-08-28 06:43Z → 2026-08-28 07:38Z		250+1+0-0+36.5
v65realretired, book still settling
2026-08-27 19:48Z → 2026-08-28 06:43Z		18253+340+3-3+753.4
v64realretired, book still settling
2026-08-27 10:06Z → 2026-08-27 19:48Z		9227+36-64-72-69.3
v63realretired, book still settling
2026-08-27 08:12Z → 2026-08-27 10:06Z		375+5-3-5+36.5
v62realretired, book still settling
2026-08-27 07:18Z → 2026-08-27 08:12Z		369+5+3+2+224.9
v89-twinpaperevaluating
2026-09-19 16:43Z → running		1963,632+191+1139+527+444.0
codex-paperpaperretired: window-complete
2026-08-22 19:49Z → 2026-08-22 19:49Z		140+0+13+4-
v88-twinpaperretired: prod-moved
2026-09-03 16:10Z → 2026-09-19 12:21Z		141226,687+1027+5780+2443+429.7
v87paperretired: superseded-same-day
2026-09-03 00:02Z → 2026-09-03 15:21Z		54952-375+95-2-438.5
v86paperretired: window-complete
2026-09-02 13:27Z → 2026-09-09 15:32Z		53913,928+1183+3446+1059+653.2
v85paperretired: superseded-same-day
2026-09-02 10:16Z → 2026-09-02 13:08Z		21849+775+114-7+7461.3
v84paperretired: superseded-same-day
2026-09-02 02:00Z → 2026-09-02 08:22Z		46350-40+42+18+5.7
v83paperretired: window-complete
2026-09-01 10:09Z → 2026-09-08 03:32Z		64611,605+727+2860+835+533.5
v82paperretired: window-complete
2026-08-30 22:07Z → 2026-09-01 09:44Z		1773,963+247+167-2+279.2
v80-twinpaperretired: prod-moved
2026-08-29 22:05Z → 2026-08-30 07:42Z		28650+61+43+20+259.9
v77-twinpaperretired: prod-moved
2026-08-29 16:04Z → 2026-08-29 17:52Z		15400-116+170+54+723.9
v75-twinpaperretired: prod-moved
2026-08-29 13:31Z → 2026-08-29 15:38Z		16474-200+35-4-1880.5
v72-twinpaperretired: prod-moved
2026-08-29 10:14Z → 2026-08-29 12:19Z		11250+26+20+5+532.6
v70-twinpaperretired: prod-moved
2026-08-29 08:17Z → 2026-08-29 08:29Z		6140+2+8+8+1241.1
v68paperretired: window-complete
2026-08-28 13:52Z → 2026-08-30 18:48Z		732,211+410+330+249+335.1
v67-twinpaperretired: prod-moved
2026-08-28 08:16Z → 2026-08-29 07:19Z		32792+239+112+80+365.9
v65-twinpaperretired: prod-moved
2026-08-27 20:15Z → 2026-08-28 02:27Z		17238-57+16+10-159.6
v64-twinpaperretired: prod-moved
2026-08-27 10:07Z → 2026-08-27 20:07Z		13334+34-51-58-41.4
v63-twinpaperretired: prod-moved
2026-08-27 08:14Z → 2026-08-27 08:18Z		5347+3+22+5+11001.8
v62-twinpaperretired: prod-moved
2026-08-27 07:20Z → 2026-08-27 07:48Z		6310+3+24+13+1336.9
v60-twinpaperretired: prod-moved
2026-08-27 10:06Z → 2026-08-27 10:06Z		250+3+0+0+109728.0
v59-twinpaperretired: prod-moved
2026-08-26 20:46Z → 2026-08-26 20:46Z		384+0+11+1+460637.2
v58-twinpaperretired: prod-moved
2026-08-26 12:59Z → 2026-08-26 19:49Z		13391-67+13-11-190.2
v57-twinpaperretired: prod-moved
2026-08-26 12:24Z → 2026-08-26 12:51Z		28+0+12+4+626.0
v56-twinpaperretired: prod-moved
2026-08-26 12:01Z → 2026-08-26 12:10Z		3110+0+75+49+11809.4
v55-twinpaperretired: prod-moved
2026-08-26 11:41Z → 2026-08-26 11:59Z		5101+1+78+55+6374.5
v53-twinpaperretired: prod-moved
2026-08-26 10:58Z → 2026-08-26 11:04Z		470+22+5-2+6307.7
v50-twinpaperretired: prod-moved
2026-08-26 10:03Z → 2026-08-26 10:33Z		5121+34+28+21+2885.8
v45paperretired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-25 20:32Z → 2026-08-25 21:04Z		8605-86+8-41-3429.4
v44paperretired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-25 20:28Z → 2026-08-25 20:31Z		7365+15-6-32+5636.0
v41paperretired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-25 14:46Z → 2026-08-25 17:58Z		9656-481+3-5-3573.8
v39paperretired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-25 12:44Z → 2026-08-25 13:31Z		1100-100+0+0-3092.3
v38paperretired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-25 12:18Z → 2026-08-25 12:41Z		3212-12+27+15+973.2
v37paperretired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-25 09:45Z → 2026-08-25 09:45Z		128+0+14+12+37215.2
v35paperretired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-25 08:50Z → 2026-08-25 08:59Z		6184+57+29+23+14065.5
v34paperretired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-25 08:46Z → 2026-08-25 08:47Z		1131+57+0+0+258245.1
v20paperretired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-24 13:39Z → 2026-08-24 14:34Z		3203-10+94+90+2187.4
v16paperretired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-24 12:42Z → 2026-08-24 13:15Z		15375-96+4+0-4042.7
v15paperretired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-24 12:38Z → 2026-08-24 12:39Z		9250-77-26-26-111952.5
v14paperretired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-24 12:35Z → 2026-08-24 12:36Z		7222-74-4-4-86088.4
v13paperretired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-24 12:31Z → 2026-08-24 12:32Z		8227-71-4-4-87939.7
v12paperretired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-24 12:16Z → 2026-08-24 12:17Z		8222-67-4-4-92033.7
v11paperretired: window-complete
2026-08-23 20:07Z → 2026-08-30 04:03Z		35910,830+1707+1482+487+503.8
v10paperretired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-23 08:06Z → 2026-08-23 20:03Z		30907+216+257+189+951.2
v9paperretired: window-complete
2026-08-22 20:03Z → 2026-08-29 00:28Z		3277,435+2028+972+410+485.1
v8paperretired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-22 17:52Z → 2026-08-22 19:52Z		16400+76+8+3+1010.6
v7paperretired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-22 08:16Z → 2026-08-22 17:06Z		6120+96+95+33+518.9