trader-agent v10

Modules of v10

Own trades and own declines only; each module's page has the reasoning.

whale-fadelive

+198 / +251

A single 100+ mana YES bet that pushes a mid-life market up 5+ points is overconfident on average; fades it.

0bets by entry price1

bets: 8
staked: 200
settled: 2/3 won
realised: +216
open (5) sold: -19
open (5) held: +34
return sold: +99%
return held: +125%

codex-openlive

+136 / +138

A price-blind language-model estimate on each new market; bets only when it disagrees with the price by more than the configured edge.

0bets by entry price1

bets: 2
staked: 200
settled: none settled yet
realised: +0
open (2) sold: +136
open (2) held: +138
return sold: +68%
return held: +69%

open-snipelive

+74 / +80

Bets a brand-new untraded market from its opening price toward the historical resolution rate of its cell (type x price x horizon x ante).

0bets by entry price1

bets: 6
staked: 157
settled: 0/1 won
realised: -10
open (5) sold: +84
open (5) held: +90
return sold: +47%
return held: +51%

park-nolive

+11 / +15

Parks idle mana as NO in stale mid-priced books instead of leaving it in cash.

0bets by entry price1

bets: 12
staked: 300
settled: 5/6 won
realised: +10
open (6) sold: +1
open (6) held: +5
return sold: +4%
return held: +5%

close-longlive

-0 / +0

Longshots at 0.03-0.15 inside 24h of close resolve NO about 95% of the time.

0bets by entry price1

bets: 1
staked: 25
settled: none settled yet
realised: +0
open (1) sold: +0
open (1) held: +0
return sold: +0%
return held: +0%

numeric-tailshadow

-12 / -9

Buys the lowest bucket of a new numeric or date market.

0bets by entry price1

bets: 1
staked: 25
settled: none settled yet
realised: +0
open (1) sold: -12
open (1) held: -9
return sold: -49%
return held: -38%

codex-swingoff

no fills

Exit policy for codex-open positions.

disabled in this version's config

event-makeroff

no fills

Quotes both sides of busy event markets and collects the spread.

disabled in this version's config

mc-indeplive

no fills

Independent multiple-choice answers listed at creation resolve YES far less often than their 0.50 opens imply.

enabled; this version does not report per-sweep counts

mc-otherlive

no fills

The catch-all 'Other' answer in winner-take-all markets is overpriced above 0.20; buys NO toward 0.12.

enabled; this version does not report per-sweep counts

xvenue-jumplive

no fills

When a real-money twin on Kalshi or Polymarket jumps 10+ points, carries the move onto the Manifold mirror.

enabled; this version does not report per-sweep counts

Trades of v10

when	module	market	bet	result	why
08-23 20:03	codex-open	Will Lorena Wiebes lose a group sprint before EOY 2027?	YES 100	open +56	luna-medium price-blind says 1.00 vs market 0.50 (edge +0.50 >= 0.3): This has already occurred: in the 2026 Ronde van Brugge, Carys Lloyd won while Lorena Wiebes finished ninth in the same 3:31:23 group, and the race was classified 1.WWT. The official results therefore satisfy the rule that Wiebes
08-23 19:59	whale-fade	Will the WTI Crude Oil Spot Price be above $86.50 on August 27, 2026?	NO 25	settled +143	fade: single 500-mana YES bet pushed 0.78->0.85; big YES aggression is overconfident on average
08-23 19:23	open-snipe	Will the FRONTIER AI Act pass by July 2027?	NO 15	open +8	virgin market: cell [ai\|mid\|>=45d\|sm] historically resolves YES 0.35 vs creator open 0.50
08-23 18:34	whale-fade	Will Sweden adopt the Euro before 2032?	NO 25	open +0	fade: single 100-mana YES bet pushed 0.17->0.23; big YES aggression is overconfident on average
08-23 18:20	whale-fade	"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" grosses >$2.5 billion worldwide? ×2 answers	NO 50	open -47	fade: single 1000-mana YES bet pushed 0.70->0.86; big YES aggression is overconfident on average
08-23 17:09	open-snipe	Will I successfully brainwash myself into becoming Christian after 6 month	NO 12	open +5	virgin market: cell [personal\|mid\|>=45d\|sm] historically resolves YES 0.39 vs creator open 0.50
08-23 16:52	open-snipe	Will 3 or more total goals be scored in the Crystal Palace vs. Manchester	NO 10	settled -10	virgin market: cell [sports\|mid\|<10d\|sm] historically resolves YES 0.45 vs creator open 0.55
08-23 15:52	open-snipe	Will Ye / Kanye West perform in St. Petersburg on both 10 and 11 October 2	NO 30	open +20	virgin market: cell [other\|mid\|>=45d\|lg] historically resolves YES 0.30 vs creator open 0.50
08-23 15:00	numeric-tail	Top score in 2026 Stanford VL Behavior Robotics test	YES 25	open -12	lowest numeric bucket cheap at open (+20.6/100 pooled n=647); open 0.12
08-23 13:39	whale-fade	Will Joe Biden live a longer life than Trump?	NO 25	open +2	fade: single 100-mana YES bet pushed 0.28->0.34; big YES aggression is overconfident on average
08-23 13:37	park-no	Will OpenAI and Anthropic’s S1s be a “massacre” for AI model companies?	NO 25	open +1	parking idle float: book stale 54% of life at 68% elapsed, price 0.10 leans NO (+6-8% both eras)
08-23 12:55	whale-fade	🇺🇸🇨🇳🇮🇷 Will the U.S. sanction a Chinese entity over ties to Iran by August	NO 25	settled -25	fade: single 102-mana YES bet pushed 0.34->0.75; big YES aggression is overconfident on average
08-23 12:55	codex-open	Will Shohei Ohtani hit at least 43 home runs in 2026?	NO 100	open +80	luna-medium price-blind says 0.09 vs market 0.47 (edge -0.38 >= 0.3): Ohtani has 30 home runs through August 22, requiring 13 more in roughly 34 remaining regular-season games, while his current rate projects to about 8 additional homers. His 2024–25 power history supports upside, but a knee issue a
08-23 12:54	open-snipe	Will Shohei Ohtani hit at least 43 home runs in 2026?	NO 60	open +55	virgin market: cell [other\|mid\|<45d\|lg] historically resolves YES 0.41 vs creator open 0.50
08-23 10:57	whale-fade	Will the WTI Crude Oil Spot Price be above $86.50 on August 27, 2026?	NO 25	settled +99	fade: single 412-mana YES bet pushed 0.71->0.80; big YES aggression is overconfident on average
08-23 10:01	whale-fade	Will Merz be German chancellor on Jan 1, 2027?	NO 25	open +25	fade: single 100-mana YES bet pushed 0.82->0.91; big YES aggression is overconfident on average
08-23 09:36	park-no	Will there be a recount in the MN-GOV R primary?	NO 25	settled +7	parking idle float: book stale 25% of life at 65% elapsed, price 0.22 leans NO (+6-8% both eras)
08-23 08:36	park-no	Conditional on buying a personal mini-air-conditioner, will I regret the p	NO 25	open -1	parking idle float: book stale 76% of life at 76% elapsed, price 0.23 leans NO (+6-8% both eras)
08-23 08:36	park-no	Will the Kansas City Royals win more than 82.5 games this season?	NO 25	open +2	parking idle float: book stale 44% of life at 81% elapsed, price 0.10 leans NO (+6-8% both eras)
08-23 08:36	park-no	Will the Myanmar junta have conducted airstrikes on Kachin rare earth mini	NO 25	open +1	parking idle float: book stale 79% of life at 79% elapsed, price 0.12 leans NO (+6-8% both eras)
08-23 08:36	park-no	Will KIA-led forces have captured Bhamo by September 30, 2026?	NO 25	open +2	parking idle float: book stale 38% of life at 79% elapsed, price 0.38 leans NO (+6-8% both eras)
08-23 08:08	open-snipe	Will James Talarico win Starr County in the 2026 Texas Senate election?	NO 30	open -5	virgin market: cell [politics\|hi\|>=45d\|lg] historically resolves YES 0.43 vs creator open 0.80
08-23 08:06	park-no	Will Astra solve Elliot Glazer's prototype FrontierMath problem?	NO 25	settled -25	parking idle float: book stale 63% of life at 71% elapsed, price 0.22 leans NO (+6-8% both eras)
08-23 08:06	park-no	Will @tooawful on telegram be found dead before sept?	NO 25	open -4	parking idle float: book stale 30% of life at 79% elapsed, price 0.37 leans NO (+6-8% both eras)
08-23 08:06	park-no	Will ICPs price reach $3 before Sept 1 2026	NO 25	settled +16	parking idle float: book stale 28% of life at 81% elapsed, price 0.39 leans NO (+6-8% both eras)
08-23 08:06	park-no	Seb Krier gets fired OR promoted at Google DeepMind before September?	NO 25	settled +4	parking idle float: book stale 36% of life at 75% elapsed, price 0.13 leans NO (+6-8% both eras)
08-23 08:06	park-no	If I get a tetanus shot for my scrape will I regret it?	NO 25	settled +2	parking idle float: book stale 32% of life at 64% elapsed, price 0.08 leans NO (+6-8% both eras)
08-23 08:06	park-no	Resolution criteria mandatory for Yes/No markets on 09/09/2026?	NO 25	settled +6	parking idle float: book stale 40% of life at 82% elapsed, price 0.19 leans NO (+6-8% both eras)

Showing the newest 28 of 29 trades (30 bets); each module page carries its whole book.

The lineage

version	mana	status · window	bets	staked	realised	open held	open sold	per day
v89	real	live in prod 2026-09-19 16:42Z → running	221	5,709	+338	+386	-116	+242.0
v88	real	retired, book still settling 2026-09-03 13:36Z → 2026-09-19 16:42Z	1117	30,685	+928	+4016	+1235	+306.5
v81	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-30 09:55Z → 2026-09-03 13:36Z	393	13,334	+1646	+760	+5	+579.2
v80	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 19:42Z → 2026-08-30 09:55Z	26	595	+7	-1	-6	+11.3
v78	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 17:15Z → 2026-08-29 19:28Z	11	411	+25	-47	-71	-242.6
v77	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 16:03Z → 2026-08-29 17:15Z	5	247	-18	-32	-52	-985.7
v77	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 16:03Z → 2026-08-29 17:15Z	5	247	-18	-32	-52	-985.7
v76	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 15:27Z → 2026-08-29 16:02Z	10	298	+320	+0	+0	+13115.0
v75	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 13:01Z → 2026-08-29 15:27Z	13	218	+149	+0	+0	+1479.0
v74	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 10:35Z → 2026-08-29 13:01Z	12	128	+23	-14	-22	+89.3
v73	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 10:24Z → 2026-08-29 10:35Z	10	250	+3	+2	+1	+616.5
v72	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 10:12Z → 2026-08-29 10:24Z	5	125	+2	+1	+1	+343.1
v71	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 10:03Z → 2026-08-29 10:12Z	5	125	+2	+2	+2	+553.2
v70	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 06:12Z → 2026-08-29 10:03Z	9	150	-9	+8	+8	-3.0
v67	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-28 07:38Z → 2026-08-29 06:12Z	27	475	-108	+40	+21	-72.3
v66	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-28 06:43Z → 2026-08-28 07:38Z	2	50	+1	+0	-0	+36.5
v65	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-27 19:48Z → 2026-08-28 06:43Z	18	253	+340	+3	-3	+753.4
v64	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-27 10:06Z → 2026-08-27 19:48Z	9	227	+36	-64	-72	-69.3
v63	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-27 08:12Z → 2026-08-27 10:06Z	3	75	+5	-3	-5	+36.5
v62	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-27 07:18Z → 2026-08-27 08:12Z	3	69	+5	+3	+2	+224.9
v89-twin	paper	evaluating 2026-09-19 16:43Z → running	196	3,632	+191	+1131	+520	+442.2
codex-paper	paper	retired: window-complete 2026-08-22 19:49Z → 2026-08-22 19:49Z	1	40	+0	+13	+4	-
v88-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-09-03 16:10Z → 2026-09-19 12:21Z	1412	26,687	+1027	+5778	+2442	+429.6
v87	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-09-03 00:02Z → 2026-09-03 15:21Z	54	952	-375	+95	-2	-438.5
v86	paper	retired: window-complete 2026-09-02 13:27Z → 2026-09-09 15:32Z	539	13,928	+1183	+3446	+1059	+653.2
v85	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-09-02 10:16Z → 2026-09-02 13:08Z	21	849	+775	+114	-7	+7461.3
v84	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-09-02 02:00Z → 2026-09-02 08:22Z	46	350	-40	+42	+18	+5.7
v83	paper	retired: window-complete 2026-09-01 10:09Z → 2026-09-08 03:32Z	646	11,605	+727	+2860	+835	+533.5
v82	paper	retired: window-complete 2026-08-30 22:07Z → 2026-09-01 09:44Z	177	3,963	+247	+167	-2	+279.2
v80-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-29 22:05Z → 2026-08-30 07:42Z	28	650	+61	+43	+20	+259.9
v77-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-29 16:04Z → 2026-08-29 17:52Z	15	400	-116	+170	+54	+723.9
v75-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-29 13:31Z → 2026-08-29 15:38Z	16	474	-200	+35	-4	-1880.5
v72-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-29 10:14Z → 2026-08-29 12:19Z	11	250	+26	+20	+5	+532.6
v70-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-29 08:17Z → 2026-08-29 08:29Z	6	140	+2	+8	+8	+1241.1
v68	paper	retired: window-complete 2026-08-28 13:52Z → 2026-08-30 18:48Z	73	2,211	+410	+330	+249	+335.1
v67-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-28 08:16Z → 2026-08-29 07:19Z	32	792	+239	+112	+80	+365.9
v65-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-27 20:15Z → 2026-08-28 02:27Z	17	238	-57	+16	+10	-159.6
v64-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-27 10:07Z → 2026-08-27 20:07Z	13	334	+34	-51	-58	-41.4
v63-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-27 08:14Z → 2026-08-27 08:18Z	5	347	+3	+22	+5	+11001.8
v62-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-27 07:20Z → 2026-08-27 07:48Z	6	310	+3	+24	+13	+1336.9
v60-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-27 10:06Z → 2026-08-27 10:06Z	2	50	+3	+0	+0	+109728.0
v59-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 20:46Z → 2026-08-26 20:46Z	3	84	+0	+11	+1	+460637.2
v58-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 12:59Z → 2026-08-26 19:49Z	13	391	-67	+13	-11	-190.2
v57-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 12:24Z → 2026-08-26 12:51Z	2	8	+0	+12	+4	+626.0
v56-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 12:01Z → 2026-08-26 12:10Z	3	110	+0	+75	+49	+11809.4
v55-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 11:41Z → 2026-08-26 11:59Z	5	101	+1	+78	+55	+6374.5
v53-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 10:58Z → 2026-08-26 11:04Z	4	70	+22	+5	-2	+6307.7
v50-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 10:03Z → 2026-08-26 10:33Z	5	121	+34	+28	+21	+2885.8
v45	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 20:32Z → 2026-08-25 21:04Z	8	605	-86	+8	-41	-3429.4
v44	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 20:28Z → 2026-08-25 20:31Z	7	365	+15	-6	-32	+5636.0
v41	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 14:46Z → 2026-08-25 17:58Z	9	656	-481	+3	-5	-3573.8
v39	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 12:44Z → 2026-08-25 13:31Z	1	100	-100	+0	+0	-3092.3
v38	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 12:18Z → 2026-08-25 12:41Z	3	212	-12	+27	+15	+973.2
v37	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 09:45Z → 2026-08-25 09:45Z	1	28	+0	+14	+12	+37215.2
v35	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 08:50Z → 2026-08-25 08:59Z	6	184	+57	+29	+23	+14065.5
v34	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 08:46Z → 2026-08-25 08:47Z	1	131	+57	+0	+0	+258245.1
v20	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-24 13:39Z → 2026-08-24 14:34Z	3	203	-10	+94	+90	+2187.4
v16	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-24 12:42Z → 2026-08-24 13:15Z	15	375	-96	+4	+0	-4042.7
v15	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-24 12:38Z → 2026-08-24 12:39Z	9	250	-77	-26	-26	-111952.5
v14	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-24 12:35Z → 2026-08-24 12:36Z	7	222	-74	-4	-4	-86088.4
v13	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-24 12:31Z → 2026-08-24 12:32Z	8	227	-71	-4	-4	-87939.7
v12	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-24 12:16Z → 2026-08-24 12:17Z	8	222	-67	-4	-4	-92033.7
v11	paper	retired: window-complete 2026-08-23 20:07Z → 2026-08-30 04:03Z	359	10,830	+1707	+1482	+487	+503.8
v10	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-23 08:06Z → 2026-08-23 20:03Z	30	907	+216	+257	+189	+951.2
v9	paper	retired: window-complete 2026-08-22 20:03Z → 2026-08-29 00:28Z	327	7,435	+2028	+972	+410	+485.1
v8	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-22 17:52Z → 2026-08-22 19:52Z	16	400	+76	+8	+3	+1010.6
v7	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-22 08:16Z → 2026-08-22 17:06Z	6	120	+96	+95	+33	+518.9

Evaluation

Modules of v10

Trades of v10

The lineage