close-longlive
+1 / +1Longshots at 0.03-0.15 inside 24h of close resolve NO about 95% of the time.
0bets by entry price1- bets
- 1
- staked
- 25
- settled
- 1/1 won
- realised
- +1
- open (0) sold
- +0
- open (0) held
- +0
- return sold
- +4%
- return held
- +4%
Own trades and own declines only; each module's page has the reasoning.
Longshots at 0.03-0.15 inside 24h of close resolve NO about 95% of the time.
0bets by entry price1Bets a brand-new untraded market from its opening price toward the historical resolution rate of its cell (type x price x horizon x ante).
0bets by entry price1A single 100+ mana YES bet that pushes a mid-life market up 5+ points is overconfident on average; fades it.
0bets by entry price1A price-blind language-model estimate on each new market; bets only when it disagrees with the price by more than the configured edge.
0bets by entry price1Independent multiple-choice answers listed at creation resolve YES far less often than their 0.50 opens imply.
judged 109 markets, placed nothing
The catch-all 'Other' answer in winner-take-all markets is overpriced above 0.20; buys NO toward 0.12.
judged 109 markets, placed nothing
Parks idle mana as NO in stale mid-priced books instead of leaving it in cash.
judged 7 markets, placed nothing
| when | module | market | bet | 0 · price · 1 | result | why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-25 17:58 | codex-open | MLB: Will the Tampa Bay Rays sweep the New York Mets OR will the 3-game se | YES 28 | settled +20 | luna-medium price-blind says 0.75 vs market 0.52 (edge +0.23 >= 0.2): MLB.com lists the Rays at 78-53 with 591 runs scored and 544 allowed, versus the Mets at 59-72 with 546 scored and 586 allowed; Tampa is also 43-23 at home while New York is 29-37 on the road. Those run rates imply roughly 26-27 c | |
| 08-25 16:52 | whale-fade | Will the Federal Reserve hike interest rates in 2026? | NO 100 | settled -100 | fade: single 100-mana YES bet pushed 0.27->0.34; big YES aggression is overconfident on average | |
| 08-25 16:37 | codex-open | Will Celtic score two more goals against LASK? | YES 9 | settled -9 | luna-medium price-blind says 0.39 vs market 0.05 (edge +0.34 >= 0.2): Celtic scored 3 in the first leg and began the season with four straight wins, but their 3-0 aggregate lead strongly reduces the need to attack aggressively away from home. LASK are at home and must chase the tie, while Celtic are | |
| 08-25 16:37 | open-snipe | Will Celtic score two more goals against LASK? | YES 11 | settled -11 | virgin market: cell [other|lo|<10d|sm] historically resolves YES 0.53 vs creator open 0.05 | |
| 08-25 16:00 | open-snipe | Will Trump actually rename Lake Ontario to something more “American” befor | NO 20 | settled -20 | virgin market: cell [politics|mid|>=45d|sm] historically resolves YES 0.32 vs creator open 0.50 | |
| 08-25 15:25 | whale-fade | SpaceX vs Tesla - Will SpaceX have a higher market cap than Tesla on Dec. | NO 100 | open -5 | fade: single 300-mana YES bet pushed 0.51->0.64; big YES aggression is overconfident on average | |
| 08-25 15:17 | close-long | Will my company make a sale today? | NO 25 | settled +1 | longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95% | |
| 08-25 15:13 | codex-open | Will my brother win the game Tapestry in the next two days? | NO 363 | settled -363 | luna-medium price-blind says 0.20 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.30 >= 0.2): No information is provided about whether the game will occur, how many players there will be, or the players’ relative skill. I therefore use a low broad prior reflecting both uncertainty about the event happening and roughly even | |
| 08-25 14:47 | codex-open | GreenLuck Casino Canada Review: Is It Worth Your Spins? | NO 0 | cancelled | luna-medium price-blind says 0.22 vs market 0.59 (edge -0.37 >= 0.2): GreenLuck’s advertised games and bonuses are corroborated, but independent reviews report 43 complaints, delayed withdrawals, restrictive terms, and below-average safety, while its offshore Anjouan licensing does not provide Canad |
| version | mana | status · window | bets | staked | realised | open held | open sold | per day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| v89 | real | live in prod 2026-09-19 16:42Z → running | 221 | 5,709 | +338 | +386 | -116 | +242.3 |
| v88 | real | retired, book still settling 2026-09-03 13:36Z → 2026-09-19 16:42Z | 1117 | 30,685 | +928 | +4016 | +1235 | +306.5 |
| v81 | real | retired, book still settling 2026-08-30 09:55Z → 2026-09-03 13:36Z | 393 | 13,334 | +1646 | +760 | +5 | +579.2 |
| v80 | real | retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 19:42Z → 2026-08-30 09:55Z | 26 | 595 | +7 | -1 | -6 | +11.3 |
| v78 | real | retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 17:15Z → 2026-08-29 19:28Z | 11 | 411 | +25 | -47 | -71 | -242.6 |
| v77 | real | retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 16:03Z → 2026-08-29 17:15Z | 5 | 247 | -18 | -32 | -52 | -985.7 |
| v77 | real | retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 16:03Z → 2026-08-29 17:15Z | 5 | 247 | -18 | -32 | -52 | -985.7 |
| v76 | real | retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 15:27Z → 2026-08-29 16:02Z | 10 | 298 | +320 | +0 | +0 | +13115.0 |
| v75 | real | retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 13:01Z → 2026-08-29 15:27Z | 13 | 218 | +149 | +0 | +0 | +1479.0 |
| v74 | real | retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 10:35Z → 2026-08-29 13:01Z | 12 | 128 | +23 | -14 | -22 | +89.3 |
| v73 | real | retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 10:24Z → 2026-08-29 10:35Z | 10 | 250 | +3 | +2 | +1 | +616.5 |
| v72 | real | retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 10:12Z → 2026-08-29 10:24Z | 5 | 125 | +2 | +1 | +1 | +343.1 |
| v71 | real | retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 10:03Z → 2026-08-29 10:12Z | 5 | 125 | +2 | +2 | +2 | +553.2 |
| v70 | real | retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 06:12Z → 2026-08-29 10:03Z | 9 | 150 | -9 | +8 | +8 | -3.0 |
| v67 | real | retired, book still settling 2026-08-28 07:38Z → 2026-08-29 06:12Z | 27 | 475 | -108 | +40 | +21 | -72.3 |
| v66 | real | retired, book still settling 2026-08-28 06:43Z → 2026-08-28 07:38Z | 2 | 50 | +1 | +0 | -0 | +36.5 |
| v65 | real | retired, book still settling 2026-08-27 19:48Z → 2026-08-28 06:43Z | 18 | 253 | +340 | +3 | -3 | +753.4 |
| v64 | real | retired, book still settling 2026-08-27 10:06Z → 2026-08-27 19:48Z | 9 | 227 | +36 | -64 | -72 | -69.3 |
| v63 | real | retired, book still settling 2026-08-27 08:12Z → 2026-08-27 10:06Z | 3 | 75 | +5 | -3 | -5 | +36.5 |
| v62 | real | retired, book still settling 2026-08-27 07:18Z → 2026-08-27 08:12Z | 3 | 69 | +5 | +3 | +2 | +224.9 |
| v89-twin | paper | evaluating 2026-09-19 16:43Z → running | 196 | 3,632 | +191 | +1131 | +520 | +442.7 |
| codex-paper | paper | retired: window-complete 2026-08-22 19:49Z → 2026-08-22 19:49Z | 1 | 40 | +0 | +13 | +4 | - |
| v88-twin | paper | retired: prod-moved 2026-09-03 16:10Z → 2026-09-19 12:21Z | 1412 | 26,687 | +1027 | +5778 | +2442 | +429.6 |
| v87 | paper | retired: superseded-same-day 2026-09-03 00:02Z → 2026-09-03 15:21Z | 54 | 952 | -375 | +95 | -2 | -438.5 |
| v86 | paper | retired: window-complete 2026-09-02 13:27Z → 2026-09-09 15:32Z | 539 | 13,928 | +1183 | +3446 | +1059 | +653.2 |
| v85 | paper | retired: superseded-same-day 2026-09-02 10:16Z → 2026-09-02 13:08Z | 21 | 849 | +775 | +114 | -7 | +7461.3 |
| v84 | paper | retired: superseded-same-day 2026-09-02 02:00Z → 2026-09-02 08:22Z | 46 | 350 | -40 | +42 | +18 | +5.7 |
| v83 | paper | retired: window-complete 2026-09-01 10:09Z → 2026-09-08 03:32Z | 646 | 11,605 | +727 | +2860 | +835 | +533.5 |
| v82 | paper | retired: window-complete 2026-08-30 22:07Z → 2026-09-01 09:44Z | 177 | 3,963 | +247 | +167 | -2 | +279.2 |
| v80-twin | paper | retired: prod-moved 2026-08-29 22:05Z → 2026-08-30 07:42Z | 28 | 650 | +61 | +43 | +20 | +259.9 |
| v77-twin | paper | retired: prod-moved 2026-08-29 16:04Z → 2026-08-29 17:52Z | 15 | 400 | -116 | +170 | +54 | +723.9 |
| v75-twin | paper | retired: prod-moved 2026-08-29 13:31Z → 2026-08-29 15:38Z | 16 | 474 | -200 | +35 | -4 | -1880.5 |
| v72-twin | paper | retired: prod-moved 2026-08-29 10:14Z → 2026-08-29 12:19Z | 11 | 250 | +26 | +20 | +5 | +532.6 |
| v70-twin | paper | retired: prod-moved 2026-08-29 08:17Z → 2026-08-29 08:29Z | 6 | 140 | +2 | +8 | +8 | +1241.1 |
| v68 | paper | retired: window-complete 2026-08-28 13:52Z → 2026-08-30 18:48Z | 73 | 2,211 | +410 | +330 | +249 | +335.1 |
| v67-twin | paper | retired: prod-moved 2026-08-28 08:16Z → 2026-08-29 07:19Z | 32 | 792 | +239 | +112 | +80 | +365.9 |
| v65-twin | paper | retired: prod-moved 2026-08-27 20:15Z → 2026-08-28 02:27Z | 17 | 238 | -57 | +16 | +10 | -159.6 |
| v64-twin | paper | retired: prod-moved 2026-08-27 10:07Z → 2026-08-27 20:07Z | 13 | 334 | +34 | -51 | -58 | -41.4 |
| v63-twin | paper | retired: prod-moved 2026-08-27 08:14Z → 2026-08-27 08:18Z | 5 | 347 | +3 | +22 | +5 | +11001.8 |
| v62-twin | paper | retired: prod-moved 2026-08-27 07:20Z → 2026-08-27 07:48Z | 6 | 310 | +3 | +24 | +13 | +1336.9 |
| v60-twin | paper | retired: prod-moved 2026-08-27 10:06Z → 2026-08-27 10:06Z | 2 | 50 | +3 | +0 | +0 | +109728.0 |
| v59-twin | paper | retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 20:46Z → 2026-08-26 20:46Z | 3 | 84 | +0 | +11 | +1 | +460637.2 |
| v58-twin | paper | retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 12:59Z → 2026-08-26 19:49Z | 13 | 391 | -67 | +13 | -11 | -190.2 |
| v57-twin | paper | retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 12:24Z → 2026-08-26 12:51Z | 2 | 8 | +0 | +12 | +4 | +626.0 |
| v56-twin | paper | retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 12:01Z → 2026-08-26 12:10Z | 3 | 110 | +0 | +75 | +49 | +11809.4 |
| v55-twin | paper | retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 11:41Z → 2026-08-26 11:59Z | 5 | 101 | +1 | +78 | +55 | +6374.5 |
| v53-twin | paper | retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 10:58Z → 2026-08-26 11:04Z | 4 | 70 | +22 | +5 | -2 | +6307.7 |
| v50-twin | paper | retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 10:03Z → 2026-08-26 10:33Z | 5 | 121 | +34 | +28 | +21 | +2885.8 |
| v45 | paper | retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 20:32Z → 2026-08-25 21:04Z | 8 | 605 | -86 | +8 | -41 | -3429.4 |
| v44 | paper | retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 20:28Z → 2026-08-25 20:31Z | 7 | 365 | +15 | -6 | -32 | +5636.0 |
| v41 | paper | retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 14:46Z → 2026-08-25 17:58Z | 9 | 656 | -481 | +3 | -5 | -3573.8 |
| v39 | paper | retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 12:44Z → 2026-08-25 13:31Z | 1 | 100 | -100 | +0 | +0 | -3092.3 |
| v38 | paper | retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 12:18Z → 2026-08-25 12:41Z | 3 | 212 | -12 | +27 | +15 | +973.2 |
| v37 | paper | retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 09:45Z → 2026-08-25 09:45Z | 1 | 28 | +0 | +14 | +12 | +37215.2 |
| v35 | paper | retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 08:50Z → 2026-08-25 08:59Z | 6 | 184 | +57 | +29 | +23 | +14065.5 |
| v34 | paper | retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 08:46Z → 2026-08-25 08:47Z | 1 | 131 | +57 | +0 | +0 | +258245.1 |
| v20 | paper | retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-24 13:39Z → 2026-08-24 14:34Z | 3 | 203 | -10 | +94 | +90 | +2187.4 |
| v16 | paper | retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-24 12:42Z → 2026-08-24 13:15Z | 15 | 375 | -96 | +4 | +0 | -4042.7 |
| v15 | paper | retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-24 12:38Z → 2026-08-24 12:39Z | 9 | 250 | -77 | -26 | -26 | -111952.5 |
| v14 | paper | retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-24 12:35Z → 2026-08-24 12:36Z | 7 | 222 | -74 | -4 | -4 | -86088.4 |
| v13 | paper | retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-24 12:31Z → 2026-08-24 12:32Z | 8 | 227 | -71 | -4 | -4 | -87939.7 |
| v12 | paper | retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-24 12:16Z → 2026-08-24 12:17Z | 8 | 222 | -67 | -4 | -4 | -92033.7 |
| v11 | paper | retired: window-complete 2026-08-23 20:07Z → 2026-08-30 04:03Z | 359 | 10,830 | +1707 | +1482 | +487 | +503.8 |
| v10 | paper | retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-23 08:06Z → 2026-08-23 20:03Z | 30 | 907 | +216 | +257 | +189 | +951.2 |
| v9 | paper | retired: window-complete 2026-08-22 20:03Z → 2026-08-29 00:28Z | 327 | 7,435 | +2028 | +972 | +410 | +485.1 |
| v8 | paper | retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-22 17:52Z → 2026-08-22 19:52Z | 16 | 400 | +76 | +8 | +3 | +1010.6 |
| v7 | paper | retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-22 08:16Z → 2026-08-22 17:06Z | 6 | 120 | +96 | +95 | +33 | +518.9 |