mc‑indep

module 1.0 · v83 ← trader

A multiple-choice market lists its answers at about 0.50 each, and answers that resolve independently come in nearer 40% for ai, 36% for crypto, 38% for entertainment, 37% for geopolitics, 35% for other, 43% for personal, 39% for politics, 43% for sports, 41% for stocks (38% for anything unnamed). So this module buys NO across the answers of a brand-new market, up to 150 mana per market. The bet is per answer, which is exactly where the risk hides: a market's answers are often settled by one event on one day, and then a dozen small bets are one big bet wearing a dozen costumes.

Markets it bet, and how many answers each took

On which dates will OpenAI Reset Limits?39 answers · 71 mana · v83
Sep 70.50Sep 80.50Sep 90.50Sep 100.50Sep 110.50Sep 120.50Sep 130.50Sep 140.50Sep 150.50Sep 160.50Sep 170.50Sep 180.50Sep 190.50Sep 200.50Sep 210.50Sep 220.50Sep 230.50Sep 240.50Sep 250.50Sep 260.50Sep 270.50Sep 280.50Sep 290.50Sep 300.50Oct 10.50Oct 20.50
What results will happen during Week 2 of the 2026 College Football Season?38 answers · 123 mana · v83
Miami defeats Florida A&0.50Louisville defeats Villa0.50Virginia defeats Norfolk0.50NC State defeats Richmon0.50Boston College defeats R0.50Missouri defeats Kansas0.50Oregon defeats Oklahoma 0.50Indiana defeats Howard0.50Texas A&M defeats Arizon0.50Oklahoma defeats Michiga0.50Penn State defeats Templ0.50Kansas State defeats Was0.50North Carolina defeats E0.50Virginia Tech defeats Ol0.50Wake Forest defeats Purd0.50Army defeats South Flori0.50East Carolina defeats Ap0.50Kent State defeats Woffo0.50Georgia defeats Western 0.50West Virginia defeats UT0.50Central Michigan defeats0.50Miami (OH) defeats Holy 0.50Ball State defeats Stony0.50Notre Dame defeats Rice0.50Alabama defeats Kentucky0.50BYU defeats Arizona0.50
Who will remain in Masters after Season 41?30 answers · 99 mana · v83
prismatic0.50Christopher Randles0.50Zanda Zhu0.50Lion0.50chris (strutheo)0.50Fion0.50Ziddletwix0.50colonist0.50Zeolite0.50DottedCalculator0.50bandors0.50MachiNi0.50Chad0.50Shane Bo0.50Quroe 🫘0.50brian wang0.50Tyler0.50Mochi0.50Fold Habits Die Hard0.50Jack0.50Evan0.50Eli Goldfine0.50Simon0.50Boots0.50Kembo0.50Ben S0.50
Which New York House Districts will the Democrats win in the 2026 midterms?26 answers · 86 mana · v83
New York's 1st Congressi0.50New York's 2nd Congressi0.50New York's 3rd Congressi0.50New York's 4th Congressi0.50New York's 5th Congressi0.50New York's 6th Congressi0.50New York's 7th Congressi0.50New York's 8th Congressi0.50New York's 9th Congressi0.50New York's 10th Congress0.50New York's 11th Congress0.50New York's 12th Congress0.50New York's 13th Congress0.50New York's 14th Congress0.50New York's 15th Congress0.50New York's 16th Congress0.50New York's 17th Congress0.50New York's 18th Congress0.50New York's 19th Congress0.50New York's 20th Congress0.50New York's 21st Congress0.50New York's 22nd Congress0.50New York's 23rd Congress0.50New York's 24th Congress0.50New York's 25th Congress0.50New York's 26th Congress0.50
OpenAI Astra Prop Bets10 answers · 21 mana · v83
Scores at least 67 on Ar0.50Costs at least $50 per m0.50Scores at least 50% on G0.50Resolves a FrontierMath 0.50Scores at least 80% on D0.50Scores at least 60% on E0.50Scores at least 40% on T0.50Scores at least 55% on T0.50OpenAI claims it is AGI 0.50It performs worse than G0.50
Which women's tennis players will reach the 2026 U.S. Open Semifinals?10 answers · 15 mana · v83
🇺🇸 C. Gauff0.50🇺🇸 J. Pegula0.50🇰🇿 E. Rybakina0.50🇵🇱 I. Swiatek0.50🇺🇦 E. Svitolina0.50🇷🇺 M. Andreeva0.50🇺🇦 M. Kostyuk0.50🇨🇿 K. Muchova0.50🇵🇭 A. Eala0.50🇷🇴 S. Cirstea0.50
Claude Fable 5.2+ (Anthropic) release date8 answers · 0 mana · v83
Before 2026-11-010.50Before 2026-11-160.50Before 2026-12-010.50Before 2026-12-160.50Before 2027-01-010.50Before 2027-01-160.50Before 2027-02-010.50Before 2027-02-160.50
Podium Sitters of WRC Rally Chile Bio Bío 20267 answers · 23 mana · v83
Elfyn Evans0.50Sami Pajari0.50Takamoto Katsuta0.50Oliver Solberg0.50Sébastien Ogier0.50Adrien Fourmnaux0.50Thierry Neuville0.50
Rank the options! (week 1)6 answers · 7 mana · v83
10.5020.5030.5040.5050.5060.50
SEC on Novel ETFs4 answers · 60 mana · v83
Leveraged or single-stoc0.50SEC proposes slowing dow0.50Crypto ETFs singled out 0.50SEC finalize anything fr0.50
Brazil 2026 Election: Who will be elected Senator in Minas Gerais (MG)?4 answers · 9 mana · v83
Marília Campos0.50Aécio Neves0.50Carlos Viana0.50Domingos Sávio0.50
When will Anthropic release Mythos?4 answers · 9 mana · v83
Before Oct 1, 20260.50Before Nov 1, 20260.50Before Dec 1, 20260.50Before Jan 1, 20270.50
Who of the unstable SMP will post this week?4 answers · 2 mana · v83
Parrot0.50Wembu0.50Flamefrags0.50Spoke0.50
What will happen in the rest of September? (20 mana bonus in description)4 answers · 57 mana · v83
A newly released song re0.47A movie grosses at least0.50A song debuts at #1 on t0.50A Premier League player 0.50

A market marked in warning colour took six or more answers. Read those as a single position: the per-market cap limits the stake, not the number of ways one event can decide it. Each chip is one answer at the price it opened; the card's tail names the version that placed the bets.

Where candidates died · 0 markets judged

Nothing judged yet.

The book · v83

utcversionmarketbetresultwhy
09-07 11:52v83What results will happen during Week 2 of the 2026 College Football Season? :: UAB defeats Louisiana-MonroeNO 3settled -3independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-07 11:52v83What results will happen during Week 2 of the 2026 College Football Season? :: Akron defeats Robert MorrisNO 3settled -3independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-07 11:52v83What results will happen during Week 2 of the 2026 College Football Season? :: Toledo defeats Central ConnectiNO 2settled -2independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-07 11:52v83What results will happen during Week 2 of the 2026 College Football Season? :: Illinois defeats DukeNO 3settled +3independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-07 11:52v83What results will happen during Week 2 of the 2026 College Football Season? :: Michigan State defeats Eastern NO 3settled -3independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-07 11:52v83What results will happen during Week 2 of the 2026 College Football Season? :: Maryland defeats UConnNO 3settled -3independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-07 11:52v83What results will happen during Week 2 of the 2026 College Football Season? :: Texas State defeats UTSANO 3settled +3independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-07 11:52v83What results will happen during Week 2 of the 2026 College Football Season? :: Colorado defeats Weber StateNO 3settled -3independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-07 11:52v83What results will happen during Week 2 of the 2026 College Football Season? :: Pittsburgh defeats UCFNO 3settled -3independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-07 11:52v83What results will happen during Week 2 of the 2026 College Football Season? :: Syracuse defeats CaliforniaNO 3settled +3independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-07 11:52v83What results will happen during Week 2 of the 2026 College Football Season? :: BYU defeats ArizonaNO 3settled -3independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-07 11:52v83What results will happen during Week 2 of the 2026 College Football Season? :: Washington defeats Utah StateNO 3settled -3independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-07 11:52v83What results will happen during Week 2 of the 2026 College Football Season? :: Mississippi State defeats MinneNO 3settled -3independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-07 11:52v83What results will happen during Week 2 of the 2026 College Football Season? :: Miami (OH) defeats Holy CrossNO 3settled -3independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-07 11:52v83What results will happen during Week 2 of the 2026 College Football Season? :: Ball State defeats Stony BrookNO 3settled -3independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-07 11:52v83What results will happen during Week 2 of the 2026 College Football Season? :: Notre Dame defeats RiceNO 3settled -3independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-07 11:52v83What results will happen during Week 2 of the 2026 College Football Season? :: Alabama defeats KentuckyNO 3settled -3independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-07 11:52v83What results will happen during Week 2 of the 2026 College Football Season? :: West Virginia defeats UT MartinNO 3settled -3independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-07 11:52v83What results will happen during Week 2 of the 2026 College Football Season? :: Central Michigan defeats ColgatNO 3settled -3independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-07 11:52v83What results will happen during Week 2 of the 2026 College Football Season? :: East Carolina defeats AppalachiNO 3settled +3independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-07 11:52v83What results will happen during Week 2 of the 2026 College Football Season? :: Kent State defeats WoffordNO 3settled -3independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-07 11:52v83What results will happen during Week 2 of the 2026 College Football Season? :: Georgia defeats Western KentuckNO 3settled -3independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-07 11:52v83What results will happen during Week 2 of the 2026 College Football Season? :: Virginia Tech defeats Old DominNO 3settled -3independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-07 11:52v83What results will happen during Week 2 of the 2026 College Football Season? :: Wake Forest defeats PurdueNO 3settled -3independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-07 11:52v83What results will happen during Week 2 of the 2026 College Football Season? :: Army defeats South FloridaNO 3settled +3independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-07 11:52v83What results will happen during Week 2 of the 2026 College Football Season? :: Oklahoma defeats MichiganNO 3settled +3independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-07 11:52v83What results will happen during Week 2 of the 2026 College Football Season? :: Penn State defeats TempleNO 3settled -3independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-07 11:52v83What results will happen during Week 2 of the 2026 College Football Season? :: Kansas State defeats WashingtonNO 3settled -3independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-07 11:52v83What results will happen during Week 2 of the 2026 College Football Season? :: North Carolina defeats East TenNO 3settled -3independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-07 11:52v83What results will happen during Week 2 of the 2026 College Football Season? :: Oregon defeats Oklahoma StateNO 3settled +3independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-07 11:52v83What results will happen during Week 2 of the 2026 College Football Season? :: Indiana defeats HowardNO 3settled -3independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-07 11:52v83What results will happen during Week 2 of the 2026 College Football Season? :: Texas A&M defeats Arizona StateNO 3settled -3independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-07 11:52v83What results will happen during Week 2 of the 2026 College Football Season? :: Virginia defeats Norfolk StateNO 3settled -3independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-07 11:52v83What results will happen during Week 2 of the 2026 College Football Season? :: NC State defeats RichmondNO 3settled -3independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-07 11:52v83What results will happen during Week 2 of the 2026 College Football Season? :: Boston College defeats RutgersNO 3settled -3independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-07 11:52v83What results will happen during Week 2 of the 2026 College Football Season? :: Missouri defeats KansasNO 3settled -3independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-07 11:52v83What results will happen during Week 2 of the 2026 College Football Season? :: Miami defeats Florida A&MNO 2settled -2independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-07 11:52v83What results will happen during Week 2 of the 2026 College Football Season? :: Louisville defeats VillanovaNO 3settled -3independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-07 10:13v83On which dates will OpenAI Reset Limits? :: Oct 15NO 2open +1independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.399 for this type; open 0.50
09-07 10:13v83On which dates will OpenAI Reset Limits? :: Oct 13NO 2open +1independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.399 for this type; open 0.50
09-07 10:13v83On which dates will OpenAI Reset Limits? :: Oct 14NO 2open +1independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.399 for this type; open 0.50
09-07 10:13v83On which dates will OpenAI Reset Limits? :: Oct 11NO 1open +1independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.399 for this type; open 0.50
09-07 10:13v83On which dates will OpenAI Reset Limits? :: Oct 12NO 1open +1independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.399 for this type; open 0.50
09-07 10:13v83On which dates will OpenAI Reset Limits? :: Oct 8NO 1open +0independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.399 for this type; open 0.50
09-07 10:13v83On which dates will OpenAI Reset Limits? :: Oct 9NO 1open +1independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.399 for this type; open 0.50
09-07 10:13v83On which dates will OpenAI Reset Limits? :: Oct 10NO 1open +0independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.399 for this type; open 0.50
09-07 10:13v83On which dates will OpenAI Reset Limits? :: Oct 6NO 2open +1independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.399 for this type; open 0.50
09-07 10:13v83On which dates will OpenAI Reset Limits? :: Oct 7NO 2open +1independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.399 for this type; open 0.50
09-07 10:13v83On which dates will OpenAI Reset Limits? :: Oct 3NO 1open +0independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.399 for this type; open 0.50
09-07 10:13v83On which dates will OpenAI Reset Limits? :: Oct 4NO 2open +1independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.399 for this type; open 0.50
09-07 10:13v83On which dates will OpenAI Reset Limits? :: Oct 5NO 2open +1independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.399 for this type; open 0.50
09-07 10:13v83On which dates will OpenAI Reset Limits? :: Oct 2NO 1open +1independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.399 for this type; open 0.50
09-07 10:13v83On which dates will OpenAI Reset Limits? :: Sep 29NO 1open +0independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.399 for this type; open 0.50
09-07 10:13v83On which dates will OpenAI Reset Limits? :: Sep 30NO 1open +1independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.399 for this type; open 0.50
09-07 10:13v83On which dates will OpenAI Reset Limits? :: Oct 1NO 1open +0independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.399 for this type; open 0.50
09-07 10:13v83On which dates will OpenAI Reset Limits? :: Sep 27NO 1open +1independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.399 for this type; open 0.50
09-07 10:13v83On which dates will OpenAI Reset Limits? :: Sep 28NO 1open +1independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.399 for this type; open 0.50
09-07 10:13v83On which dates will OpenAI Reset Limits? :: Sep 25NO 2open +1independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.399 for this type; open 0.50
09-07 10:13v83On which dates will OpenAI Reset Limits? :: Sep 26NO 2open +1independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.399 for this type; open 0.50
09-07 10:13v83On which dates will OpenAI Reset Limits? :: Sep 23NO 2open +0independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.399 for this type; open 0.50
09-07 10:13v83On which dates will OpenAI Reset Limits? :: Sep 24NO 2open +1independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.399 for this type; open 0.50
09-07 10:13v83On which dates will OpenAI Reset Limits? :: Sep 21NO 2open +1independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.399 for this type; open 0.50
09-07 10:13v83On which dates will OpenAI Reset Limits? :: Sep 22NO 2open +0independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.399 for this type; open 0.50
09-07 10:13v83On which dates will OpenAI Reset Limits? :: Sep 18NO 2open +2independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.399 for this type; open 0.50
09-07 10:13v83On which dates will OpenAI Reset Limits? :: Sep 19NO 2open +2independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.399 for this type; open 0.50
09-07 10:13v83On which dates will OpenAI Reset Limits? :: Sep 20NO 2open +1independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.399 for this type; open 0.50
09-07 10:13v83On which dates will OpenAI Reset Limits? :: Sep 15NO 2open +2independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.399 for this type; open 0.50
09-07 10:13v83On which dates will OpenAI Reset Limits? :: Sep 16NO 2open +2independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.399 for this type; open 0.50
09-07 10:13v83On which dates will OpenAI Reset Limits? :: Sep 17NO 2open +2independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.399 for this type; open 0.50
09-07 10:13v83On which dates will OpenAI Reset Limits? :: Sep 12NO 2open -2independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.399 for this type; open 0.50
09-07 10:13v83On which dates will OpenAI Reset Limits? :: Sep 13NO 2open +2independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.399 for this type; open 0.50
09-07 10:13v83On which dates will OpenAI Reset Limits? :: Sep 14NO 2open +2independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.399 for this type; open 0.50
09-07 10:13v83On which dates will OpenAI Reset Limits? :: Sep 10NO 2open +2independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.399 for this type; open 0.50
09-07 10:13v83On which dates will OpenAI Reset Limits? :: Sep 11NO 2open +2independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.399 for this type; open 0.50
09-07 10:13v83On which dates will OpenAI Reset Limits? :: Sep 7NO 2open -2independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.399 for this type; open 0.50
09-07 10:13v83On which dates will OpenAI Reset Limits? :: Sep 8NO 2open +2independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.399 for this type; open 0.50
09-07 10:13v83On which dates will OpenAI Reset Limits? :: Sep 9NO 2open +2independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.399 for this type; open 0.50
09-06 21:01v83Rank the options! (week 1) :: 6NO 7settled -7independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-06 21:01v83Rank the options! (week 1) :: 1NO 0unfilledindependent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-06 21:01v83Rank the options! (week 1) :: 2NO 0unfilledindependent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50

Showing the newest 80 of 196 trades.

196 trades, 686 staked, realised -73, open +94 if held / +83 if sold, 24 unfilled.

196 answer-bets across 15 markets for 686 mana; realised -73 on 57 settled. Largest single market: 39 answers.
Traces are diagnostic and rotate; the trading journal is the book above. Built 2026-09-22 18:01Z.