paper · 2026-09-03 00:02Z → 2026-09-03 15:21Z
v87paper
retired: superseded-same-day4 live · 6 shadow · 1 off
bets
54 27 settled
staked
952
realised
-375
open, if held
+95
open, if sold
-2
per day
-438.5

Evaluation

v87paper window 2026-09-03 00:02Z → now, 0.7 d resolved 1 / 40 retired: superseded-same-day
sim
-245.4 /day prod, same window
+130.5 /day
HOLD noise floor ±75.8/day (5 pts of prod stake) · markets bet by both 11

Modules of v87

Own trades and own declines only; each module's page has the reasoning.

close-longshadow

+8 / +8

Longshots at 0.03-0.15 inside 24h of close resolve NO about 95% of the time.

0bets by entry price1
bets
8
staked
200
settled
6/6 won
realised
+7
open (2) sold
+1
open (2) held
+1
return sold
+4%
return held
+4%

close-favshadow

+2 / +2

Favourites at 0.90-0.97 inside 24h of close resolve YES about 99% of the time.

0bets by entry price1
bets
1
staked
25
settled
1/1 won
realised
+2
open (0) sold
+0
open (0) held
+0
return sold
+9%
return held
+9%

mc-otherlive

+2 / +2

The catch-all 'Other' answer in winner-take-all markets is overpriced above 0.20; buys NO toward 0.12.

0bets by entry price1
bets
1
staked
8
settled
none settled yet
realised
+0
open (1) sold
+2
open (1) held
+2
return sold
+21%
return held
+21%

mc-indepshadow

-3 / -3

Independent multiple-choice answers listed at creation resolve YES far less often than their 0.50 opens imply.

0bets by entry price1
bets
10
staked
11
settled
none settled yet
realised
+0
open (10) sold
-3
open (10) held
-3
return sold
-23%
return held
-23%

open-snipeshadow

-10 / -10

Bets a brand-new untraded market from its opening price toward the historical resolution rate of its cell (type x price x horizon x ante).

0bets by entry price1
bets
1
staked
15
settled
none settled yet
realised
+0
open (1) sold
-10
open (1) held
-10
return sold
-70%
return held
-67%

codex-openlive

-12 / -11

A price-blind language-model estimate on each new market; bets only when it disagrees with the price by more than the configured edge.

0bets by entry price1
bets
10
staked
174
settled
2/6 won
realised
-27
open (2) sold
+16
open (2) held
+16
return sold
-7%
return held
-6%

class-fadeshadow

-75 / -75

0bets by entry price1
bets
1
staked
75
settled
0/1 won
realised
-75
open (0) sold
+0
open (0) held
+0
return sold
-100%
return held
-100%

market-keeperlive

-140 / -44

0bets by entry price1
bets
21
staked
294
settled
2/12 won
realised
-132
open (9) sold
-7
open (9) held
+89
return sold
-47%
return held
-15%
booked off probe
2

whale-fadeshadow

-150 / -150

A single 100+ mana YES bet that pushes a mid-life market up 5+ points is overconfident on average; fades it.

0bets by entry price1
bets
1
staked
150
settled
0/1 won
realised
-150
open (0) sold
+0
open (0) held
+0
return sold
-100%
return held
-100%

codex-swingoff

no fills

Exit policy for codex-open positions.

disabled in this version's config

down-fadelive

no fills

judged 17,853 markets, placed nothing

event-makeroff

no fills

Quotes both sides of busy event markets and collects the spread.

disabled in this version's config

mc-young-fadelive

no fills

judged 17,853 markets, placed nothing

numeric-tailshadow

no fills

Buys the lowest bucket of a new numeric or date market.

judged 132 markets, placed nothing

park-nolive

no fills

Parks idle mana as NO in stale mid-priced books instead of leaving it in cash.

judged 34 markets, placed nothing

Trades of v87

whenmodulemarketbet0 · price · 1resultwhy
09-03 15:21market-keeperWill OpenAI Astra beat the next version of Fable (after 5) on Artificial A ×2 answersNO 5settled +30keep: price 0.87, fv 0.76 (gap -0.104), target 3, held 0, expected return 30%; sources calibrated 0.76
09-03 14:48mc-otherWhat tier will the next Claude release be?NO 8open +2sum-to-one Other answers priced >=0.20 resolve ~10-21%% historically; open 0.20 -> target 0.12
09-03 14:03codex-openWhen will the US 10 year treasury note yield go higher than 5%? ×4 answersYES 33settled -12luna-medium price-blind says 0.62 vs answer 0.25 (edge +0.37 >= 0.1): With TNX only about 32 basis points below 5%, two years of volatility and scheduled macro/fiscal catalysts make an intraday breach more likely than not, though the modern historical base rate and mean-reversion argue against a very high probability.
09-03 13:47codex-openGuess my 3 least favourite animals (10 mana bonus, read desc)NO 14settled +9luna-medium price-blind says 0.08 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.42 >= 0.3): Base rate is about 3% for a random animal to be among three favorites out of roughly 100 common categories; the rules make YES depend on the creator’s final resolution, termite is unusually disliked, no scheduled event mechanically changes it before September 10, and the exact resolver is the creator’s market announcement/comments, so I estimate 8%.
09-03 13:30codex-openBundesliga — 2026-27 Matchday 2 FixturesNO 0unfilledluna-medium price-blind says 0.07 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.43 >= 0.3): Base rate: Schalke have 0 wins in their last 25 against Bayern and Bayern are unbeaten in 26 recent Bundesliga away matches (20 wins, 6 draws); rules are unambiguous, the scheduled event is Schalke–Bayern on 5 September at 18:30 CEST, the resolver is Bundesliga’s official Matchday 2 results page, and market odds imply about 6.5% after normalization.
09-03 12:40market-keeperWill Avraham Eisenberg be freed from incarceration before the development ×2 answersNO 93open -3keep: price 0.99, fv 0.91 (gap -0.081), target 51, held 0, expected return 114%; sources calibrated 0.91
09-03 12:25close-longWill the August 2026 U.S. unemployment rate be at least 4.5%?NO 25open +1longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
09-03 12:25close-longWill August 2026 U.S. nonfarm payroll employment increase by at least 150,NO 25open +0longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
09-03 12:22codex-openNFL Week 1: Will Seattle cover -3.5 vs. New England OR will total points bYES 24settled -24luna-medium price-blind says 0.73 vs market 0.52 (edge +0.21 >= 0.2): Historical baseline for -3.5/44.5 NFL markets puts this OR near 75%; with Seattle -3.5 and total 44.5 (bookmaker proxies), I estimate 73%, pending the September 9 game and settlement by the NFL.com official box score.
09-03 08:52market-keeperWill Kalshi respond to New Jersey's Supreme Court petition by November 15, ×2 answersNO 6open +0keep: price 0.86, fv 0.76 (gap -0.100), target 3, held 0, expected return 30%; sources calibrated 0.76
09-03 08:52market-keeperWill GTA 6 come out on November 19, 2026? ×2 answersNO 10open -2keep: price 0.89, fv 0.81 (gap -0.086), target 6, held 0, expected return 30%; sources calibrated 0.81
09-03 08:26market-keeperIs M136279841 the 52th mersenne prime number? ×3 answersNO 18open -2keep: price 0.93, fv 0.82 (gap -0.107), target 10, held 0, expected return 32%; sources calibrated 0.82
09-03 08:20market-keeperIs OpenAI's upcoming "Astra" model going to be called GPT-6? ×2 answersNO 47settled -47keep: price 0.94, fv 0.85 (gap -0.094), target 94, held 70, expected return 33%; sources calibrated 0.85
09-03 07:52close-longDid Something Happen with GLM-5.3 Flash? ×2 answersNO 50settled +3longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
09-03 07:10close-longWill we finally pull ourselves together and avoid being wiped out by AI?NO 25settled +1longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
09-03 05:36codex-openWhich team will win the 2026 Global Chess League?YES 0unfilledluna-medium price-blind says 0.30 vs answer 0.17 (edge +0.13 >= 0.1): Base rate: Alpine won 1 of 3 prior GCL seasons (33%), versus a 16.7% six-team neutral prior; rules are clear and official FIDE confirms a six-team double round robin followed by knockouts, with the event scheduled for September 5–13 and the official GCL announcement as resolver; Carlsen-led Alpine is described as the top favorite, but high-variance rapid team play keeps the estimate below the historical rate, with no matching market witness found. [FIDE preview](https://www.fide.com/gcl-season-4-preview-what-to-expect-as-the-worlds-top-players-head-to-bengaluru/)
09-03 05:01market-keeperWill GPT-6 be called "Astra"? ×2 answersNO 22settled -22keep: price 0.95, fv 0.82 (gap -0.123), target 12, held 0, expected return 46%; sources calibrated 0.82
09-03 01:54mc-indepOpenAI Astra Prop Bets ×10 answersNO 11open -3independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.399 for this type; open 0.50
09-03 01:26codex-openVilenkin's tunneling wave function becomes well-defined in his life time?NO 100open +15luna-medium price-blind says 0.05 vs market 0.31 (edge -0.26 >= 0.2): Base rate is effectively 0 analogous general non-perturbative quantum-gravity formulations achieving consensus over decades; at age 77 his roughly 7% annual mortality rate limits the runway, while the latest work remains minisuperspace or highlights unresolved instabilities, no scheduled event mechanically changes this, and the exact resolver is the market creator’s review of APS/arXiv literature and community consensus (with no matching witness markets), so I assign 5% despite subjective wording that adds some uncertainty.
09-03 01:21codex-openNext BondYES 3open +1luna-medium price-blind says 0.94 vs market 0.50 (edge +0.44 >= 0.2): Interpreting YES as any actor outcome rather than N/A, the historical base rate is 7/7 prior mainline Bond transitions eventually receiving an official successor announcement, while Amazon confirms the search is active, early-September screen tests are scheduled, and the producer expects casting by year-end, with the exact resolver being Amazon MGM/Eon or a qualifying trade publication ([Amazon](https://www.aboutamazon.com/news/entertainment/next-james-bond-movie-latest), [screen-test report](https://www.worldofreel.com/blog/2026/8/26/jack-barton-leads-james-bond-shortlist-set-for-screen-tests-with-lowden-turner-elordi-mescal-and-dickinson), [producer timeline](https://www.gamesradar.com/entertainment/james-bond-movies/bond-producer-says-its-a-good-bet-the-next-007-will-be-cast-by-the-end-of-the-year/)).
09-03 01:18open-snipeNext BondNO 15open -10virgin market: cell [other|mid|>=45d|sm] historically resolves YES 0.33 vs creator open 0.50
09-03 00:23market-keeperIs OpenAI's upcoming "Astra" model going to be called GPT-6? ×2 answersNO 9settled -9keep: price 0.93, fv 0.85 (gap -0.080), target 5, held 0, expected return 30%; sources calibrated 0.85
09-03 00:21market-keeperIs OpenAI's upcoming "Astra" model going to be called GPT-6? ×2 answersNO 70settled -70keep: price 0.92, fv 0.85 (gap -0.072), target 36, held 0, expected return 30%; sources calibrated 0.85
09-03 00:17market-keeperWill Oracle report Q1 FY2027 revenue of at least $19.15 billion? (Septembe ×2 answersNO 14settled -14keep: price 0.92, fv 0.82 (gap -0.097), target 8, held 0, expected return 30%; sources calibrated 0.82
09-03 00:04whale-fadeNO 150settled -150fade (blind, verify after): single 4000-mana YES bet pushed 0.35->0.96; market not in cache
09-03 00:04class-fadeWill Donald Trump's face appear on US currency before December 2028?NO 75settled -75class-fade: established account (882 d) pushed YES 0.35->0.96 with 4000 mana; such pushes fade
09-03 00:02close-longDid Something Happen with GLM-5.3 Flash?NO 25settled +1longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
09-03 00:02close-longWill we finally pull ourselves together and avoid being wiped out by AI?NO 25settled +1longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%

Showing the newest 28 of 30 trades (54 bets); each module page carries its whole book.

The lineage

versionmanastatus · windowbetsstakedrealisedopen heldopen soldper day
v89reallive in prod
2026-09-19 16:42Z → running		2215,709+338+386-116+242.3
v88realretired, book still settling
2026-09-03 13:36Z → 2026-09-19 16:42Z		111730,685+928+4016+1235+306.5
v81realretired, book still settling
2026-08-30 09:55Z → 2026-09-03 13:36Z		39313,334+1646+760+5+579.2
v80realretired, book still settling
2026-08-29 19:42Z → 2026-08-30 09:55Z		26595+7-1-6+11.3
v78realretired, book still settling
2026-08-29 17:15Z → 2026-08-29 19:28Z		11411+25-47-71-242.6
v77realretired, book still settling
2026-08-29 16:03Z → 2026-08-29 17:15Z		5247-18-32-52-985.7
v77realretired, book still settling
2026-08-29 16:03Z → 2026-08-29 17:15Z		5247-18-32-52-985.7
v76realretired, book still settling
2026-08-29 15:27Z → 2026-08-29 16:02Z		10298+320+0+0+13115.0
v75realretired, book still settling
2026-08-29 13:01Z → 2026-08-29 15:27Z		13218+149+0+0+1479.0
v74realretired, book still settling
2026-08-29 10:35Z → 2026-08-29 13:01Z		12128+23-14-22+89.3
v73realretired, book still settling
2026-08-29 10:24Z → 2026-08-29 10:35Z		10250+3+2+1+616.5
v72realretired, book still settling
2026-08-29 10:12Z → 2026-08-29 10:24Z		5125+2+1+1+343.1
v71realretired, book still settling
2026-08-29 10:03Z → 2026-08-29 10:12Z		5125+2+2+2+553.2
v70realretired, book still settling
2026-08-29 06:12Z → 2026-08-29 10:03Z		9150-9+8+8-3.0
v67realretired, book still settling
2026-08-28 07:38Z → 2026-08-29 06:12Z		27475-108+40+21-72.3
v66realretired, book still settling
2026-08-28 06:43Z → 2026-08-28 07:38Z		250+1+0-0+36.5
v65realretired, book still settling
2026-08-27 19:48Z → 2026-08-28 06:43Z		18253+340+3-3+753.4
v64realretired, book still settling
2026-08-27 10:06Z → 2026-08-27 19:48Z		9227+36-64-72-69.3
v63realretired, book still settling
2026-08-27 08:12Z → 2026-08-27 10:06Z		375+5-3-5+36.5
v62realretired, book still settling
2026-08-27 07:18Z → 2026-08-27 08:12Z		369+5+3+2+224.9
v89-twinpaperevaluating
2026-09-19 16:43Z → running		1963,632+191+1131+520+442.7
codex-paperpaperretired: window-complete
2026-08-22 19:49Z → 2026-08-22 19:49Z		140+0+13+4-
v88-twinpaperretired: prod-moved
2026-09-03 16:10Z → 2026-09-19 12:21Z		141226,687+1027+5778+2442+429.6
v87paperretired: superseded-same-day
2026-09-03 00:02Z → 2026-09-03 15:21Z		54952-375+95-2-438.5
v86paperretired: window-complete
2026-09-02 13:27Z → 2026-09-09 15:32Z		53913,928+1183+3446+1059+653.2
v85paperretired: superseded-same-day
2026-09-02 10:16Z → 2026-09-02 13:08Z		21849+775+114-7+7461.3
v84paperretired: superseded-same-day
2026-09-02 02:00Z → 2026-09-02 08:22Z		46350-40+42+18+5.7
v83paperretired: window-complete
2026-09-01 10:09Z → 2026-09-08 03:32Z		64611,605+727+2860+835+533.5
v82paperretired: window-complete
2026-08-30 22:07Z → 2026-09-01 09:44Z		1773,963+247+167-2+279.2
v80-twinpaperretired: prod-moved
2026-08-29 22:05Z → 2026-08-30 07:42Z		28650+61+43+20+259.9
v77-twinpaperretired: prod-moved
2026-08-29 16:04Z → 2026-08-29 17:52Z		15400-116+170+54+723.9
v75-twinpaperretired: prod-moved
2026-08-29 13:31Z → 2026-08-29 15:38Z		16474-200+35-4-1880.5
v72-twinpaperretired: prod-moved
2026-08-29 10:14Z → 2026-08-29 12:19Z		11250+26+20+5+532.6
v70-twinpaperretired: prod-moved
2026-08-29 08:17Z → 2026-08-29 08:29Z		6140+2+8+8+1241.1
v68paperretired: window-complete
2026-08-28 13:52Z → 2026-08-30 18:48Z		732,211+410+330+249+335.1
v67-twinpaperretired: prod-moved
2026-08-28 08:16Z → 2026-08-29 07:19Z		32792+239+112+80+365.9
v65-twinpaperretired: prod-moved
2026-08-27 20:15Z → 2026-08-28 02:27Z		17238-57+16+10-159.6
v64-twinpaperretired: prod-moved
2026-08-27 10:07Z → 2026-08-27 20:07Z		13334+34-51-58-41.4
v63-twinpaperretired: prod-moved
2026-08-27 08:14Z → 2026-08-27 08:18Z		5347+3+22+5+11001.8
v62-twinpaperretired: prod-moved
2026-08-27 07:20Z → 2026-08-27 07:48Z		6310+3+24+13+1336.9
v60-twinpaperretired: prod-moved
2026-08-27 10:06Z → 2026-08-27 10:06Z		250+3+0+0+109728.0
v59-twinpaperretired: prod-moved
2026-08-26 20:46Z → 2026-08-26 20:46Z		384+0+11+1+460637.2
v58-twinpaperretired: prod-moved
2026-08-26 12:59Z → 2026-08-26 19:49Z		13391-67+13-11-190.2
v57-twinpaperretired: prod-moved
2026-08-26 12:24Z → 2026-08-26 12:51Z		28+0+12+4+626.0
v56-twinpaperretired: prod-moved
2026-08-26 12:01Z → 2026-08-26 12:10Z		3110+0+75+49+11809.4
v55-twinpaperretired: prod-moved
2026-08-26 11:41Z → 2026-08-26 11:59Z		5101+1+78+55+6374.5
v53-twinpaperretired: prod-moved
2026-08-26 10:58Z → 2026-08-26 11:04Z		470+22+5-2+6307.7
v50-twinpaperretired: prod-moved
2026-08-26 10:03Z → 2026-08-26 10:33Z		5121+34+28+21+2885.8
v45paperretired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-25 20:32Z → 2026-08-25 21:04Z		8605-86+8-41-3429.4
v44paperretired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-25 20:28Z → 2026-08-25 20:31Z		7365+15-6-32+5636.0
v41paperretired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-25 14:46Z → 2026-08-25 17:58Z		9656-481+3-5-3573.8
v39paperretired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-25 12:44Z → 2026-08-25 13:31Z		1100-100+0+0-3092.3
v38paperretired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-25 12:18Z → 2026-08-25 12:41Z		3212-12+27+15+973.2
v37paperretired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-25 09:45Z → 2026-08-25 09:45Z		128+0+14+12+37215.2
v35paperretired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-25 08:50Z → 2026-08-25 08:59Z		6184+57+29+23+14065.5
v34paperretired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-25 08:46Z → 2026-08-25 08:47Z		1131+57+0+0+258245.1
v20paperretired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-24 13:39Z → 2026-08-24 14:34Z		3203-10+94+90+2187.4
v16paperretired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-24 12:42Z → 2026-08-24 13:15Z		15375-96+4+0-4042.7
v15paperretired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-24 12:38Z → 2026-08-24 12:39Z		9250-77-26-26-111952.5
v14paperretired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-24 12:35Z → 2026-08-24 12:36Z		7222-74-4-4-86088.4
v13paperretired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-24 12:31Z → 2026-08-24 12:32Z		8227-71-4-4-87939.7
v12paperretired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-24 12:16Z → 2026-08-24 12:17Z		8222-67-4-4-92033.7
v11paperretired: window-complete
2026-08-23 20:07Z → 2026-08-30 04:03Z		35910,830+1707+1482+487+503.8
v10paperretired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-23 08:06Z → 2026-08-23 20:03Z		30907+216+257+189+951.2
v9paperretired: window-complete
2026-08-22 20:03Z → 2026-08-29 00:28Z		3277,435+2028+972+410+485.1
v8paperretired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-22 17:52Z → 2026-08-22 19:52Z		16400+76+8+3+1010.6
v7paperretired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-22 08:16Z → 2026-08-22 17:06Z		6120+96+95+33+518.9