Every other module reads a number off the venue and applies a rule. This one asks gpt-5.6-luna what a question actually resolves at, without showing it the price, and bets only when the answer and the market disagree by 20% or more. Most of the time they agree, and agreement is not a trade — so most of this page is opinions the module formed and did not act on.
No market has been priced by the model yet. Every new binary market gets an estimate; this fills as they arrive.
Every market the model priced, with the argument it gave — including the ones it argued itself out of. A multi-choice market is priced one answer at a time and each answer is its own row, named after the question. On this module the reasoning is the strategy, so a decline without it is the one decline nobody can check.
| market | price | model | gap | outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nothing priced yet. | ||||
Nothing judged yet.
| utc | version | market | bet | result | why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-08 03:32 | v83 | Who will get an In Person Hack Club Summer Internship in 2027? :: kc | NO 100 | open -3 | model 0.06; edge -0.42; luna-medium price-blind says 0.06 vs answer 0.48 (edge -0.42 >= 0.3): Base rate is about 0.05% (30 interns among roughly 60,000 Hack Clubbers in 2024), though kc’s official Remixed contribution raises this to roughly 6%; the rules require both offer acceptance and HQ arrival, no relevant 2027 selection/start event is scheduled publicly, and the exact resolver is Hack Club’s official HQ announcement or team roster, with no matching witness market found. |
| 09-08 03:31 | v83 | Who will get an In Person Hack Club Summer Internship in 2027? :: Jenin | NO 100 | cancelled | model 0.10; edge -0.40; luna-medium price-blind says 0.10 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.40 >= 0.3): Base rate is roughly 7.5% (30 interns versus about 400 candidates in the comparable Hack Club pipeline); Jenin’s active program-maintainer role modestly raises this, but eligibility, selection, offer acceptance, and HQ arrival are all unresolved, no 2027 event is scheduled yet, and the resolver is Hack Club’s official internship records/announcement rather than related-market prices. |
| 09-08 03:20 | v83 | Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2028 US Senate election in Utah? | YES 42 | open +16 | model 0.84; edge +0.34; luna-medium price-blind says 0.84 vs market 0.50 (edge +0.34 >= 0.2): Base rate is 3/3 recent Class 3 Utah Senate elections won by Republicans (100%); the rules omit a resolver, so I use the official Utah lieutenant governor’s certified results and modestly discount for ambiguity, while the Nov. 7, 2028 general election is the key scheduled event and matching Kalshi odds are 86% under nearly identical party-based rules ([Utah results](https://vote.utah.gov/historical-election-results/), [Senate history](https://www.senate.gov/states/UT/senators.htm), [Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/senateut/senate-race-utah/senateut-28)). |
| 09-08 01:50 | v83 | Will Tesla give paid public Cybercab rides in a US metro outside Texas by April 30, 2027? | YES 0 | unfilled | model 0.56; edge +0.26; luna-medium price-blind says 0.56 vs market 0.30 (edge +0.26 >= 0.2): Base rate: Tesla expanded its existing Model Y robotaxi service into three Florida metros in July 2026, but exact Cybercab expansion has a 0% prior rate (n=1 launch); rules are clear and permissive on small or invite-only paid service, while the slow production ramp and open [NHTSA AQ26002](https://www.nhtsa.gov/press-releases/investigation-tesla-cybercab-self-certification) offset Tesla’s stated expansion plans ([Tesla IR](https://ir.tesla.com/_flysystem/s3/sec/000162828026026551/tsla-20260422-gen.pdf)); the relevant calendar checkpoints are Tesla’s Q3 2026, Q4 2026, and Q1 2027 disclosures, with no named expansion date; resolution should come from Tesla’s Robotaxi app or official communications plus two established news outlets, and no matching witness market was found. |
| 09-08 01:16 | v83 | 9984 reaches 7000 by Sep 10? | NO 38 | settled +15 | model 0.14; edge -0.20; luna-medium price-blind says 0.14 vs market 0.34 (edge -0.20 >= 0.2): From 6,217, 9984 needs +12.6%; recent daily moves exceeded 10% twice in five sessions, but no scheduled IR catalyst appears before Sep 10, so I estimate roughly a 14% intraday hit probability, using the official TSE 9984 price series (with delayed vendor data as proxy) and interpreting “reaches” as any traded price. |
| 09-08 01:09 | v83 | 9984 reaches 6800 by Sep 10? | NO 37 | settled -37 | model 0.17; edge -0.33; luna-medium price-blind says 0.17 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.33 >= 0.2): A strong recent rally and elevated volatility make a touch plausible, but reaching ¥6,800 requires roughly another 9% move in at most two sessions, with no identified company catalyst. |
| 09-07 23:57 | v83 | F1: Who will win the 2026 TAG Heuer Gran Premio de España (Spanish Grand Prix)? :: 🇮🇹 Kimi Antonelli (Mercedes | YES 8 | settled +19 | model 0.36; edge +0.11; luna-medium price-blind says 0.36 vs answer 0.25 (edge +0.11 >= 0.1): Base rate: Antonelli has won 7 of 13 2026 Grands Prix (53.8%), but regression and the new Madring circuit reduce this; current winner odds imply roughly 33–38%, the race is scheduled for September 13, and the matching resolver is the FIA/F1 official classification. |
| 09-07 23:25 | v83 | World Athletics Ultimate Championship: who will win women’s 200m? :: Alfred | YES 15 | settled -15 | model 0.44; edge +0.37; luna-medium price-blind says 0.44 vs answer 0.07 (edge +0.37 >= 0.1): Base rate: Alfred is 4-for-4 in 2026 women’s 200m wins, but this is a small sample; she is the 21.51 world leader, faces an elite championship field, and the unresolved short-name rule adds slight ambiguity; the final is scheduled for 13 September and settles via World Athletics’ official Budapest 2026 results page ([World Athletics](https://worldathletics.org/competitions/world-athletics-ultimate-championship/2026)). |
| 09-07 23:25 | v83 | World Athletics Ultimate Championship: who will win women’s 200m? :: Jefferson-Wooden | YES 15 | settled +91 | model 0.43; edge +0.36; luna-medium price-blind says 0.43 vs answer 0.07 (edge +0.36 >= 0.1): Base rate is 1/16 (6.25%) for an equal-chance 16-athlete field; Jefferson-Wooden is the defending world champion with a 21.69 season best, but Gabby Thomas ranks #1 to her #2, so I give Jefferson-Wooden 43%, with the women’s 200m semifinal and final scheduled for September 13, resolved by World Athletics’ official Budapest results; the absent rules description adds ambiguity and pulls this toward 0.5. [World Athletics rankings](https://worldathletics.org/world-rankings/200m/women), [official 2026 USATF result](https://www.usatf.org/news/2026/jefferson-wooden-dominant-on-final-day-of-toyota-u), [official championship schedule](https://worldathletics.org/competitions/world-athletics-ultimate-championship/2026/news/news/28-events-one-ultimate-championship) |
| 09-07 23:25 | v83 | World Athletics Ultimate Championship: who will win women’s 200m? :: Thomas | YES 14 | settled -14 | model 0.42; edge +0.35; luna-medium price-blind says 0.42 vs answer 0.07 (edge +0.35 >= 0.1): Base rate: Thomas has won 2 of 4 high-level 200m races in 2026 and 1 of her last 2 global finals; she is ranked #1 with a 21.70 season best, but Jefferson-Wooden (21.69) and other elite entrants make this near-even, with the women’s 200m final on September 13 and World Athletics official results as resolver. |
| 09-07 23:23 | v83 | World Athletics Ultimate Championship: Who will win men’s 1500m? :: Myers | YES 0 | unfilled | model 0.30; edge +0.23; luna-medium price-blind says 0.30 vs answer 0.07 (edge +0.23 >= 0.1): Base rate: about 25–30% for a leading favorite in a major 1500m final; rules are unspecified, creating ambiguity and a pull toward 0.5; Myers is the world No. 1 and just won the Diamond League Final, but Kerr, Hocker, Ingebrigtsen and Nader are serious rivals; the men’s 1500m final is scheduled for September 13 before close; the resolver is World Athletics’ official Budapest 2026 results page, with no matching market witness found. |
| 09-07 23:23 | v83 | World Athletics Ultimate Championship: Who will win men’s 1500m? :: Jakob Ingebrigtsen | YES 7 | settled -7 | model 0.22; edge +0.15; luna-medium price-blind says 0.22 vs answer 0.07 (edge +0.15 >= 0.1): Base rate is 1/13 = 7.7% for a randomly selected entrant; assuming the missing rules mean the official World Athletics final placing, Jakob’s elite pedigree is offset by his Achilles layoff and fourth-place 1500m return, while Kerr, Hocker, Nader and Nuguse provide strong opposition; the decisive scheduled event is the Budapest men’s 1500m final on September 13 before close, resolved by World Athletics’ official results page, and no matching-rule market witness was found. |
| 09-07 23:23 | v83 | World Athletics Ultimate Championship: Who will win men’s 1500m? :: Kerr | YES 0 | unfilled | model 0.31; edge +0.24; luna-medium price-blind says 0.31 vs answer 0.07 (edge +0.24 >= 0.1): Kerr is a genuine co-favorite, but a deep 13-man field featuring Ingebrigtsen, Hocker and Nader plus ambiguous rules warrants a below-even estimate. |
| 09-07 22:56 | v83 | Will the Jets make the playoffs in the 2026 NFL season? | NO 0 | open +0 | model 0.12; edge -0.38; luna-medium price-blind says 0.12 vs market 0.49 (edge -0.38 >= 0.2): The Jets’ 0% recent playoff rate, weak 5.5-win market projection, difficult AFC field, and matching sportsbook prices support about an 11.5% chance despite offseason-improvement narratives. |
| 09-07 21:40 | v83 | Will Hunter Biden actually launch a meme coin on September 9, 2026? | YES 42 | settled +29 | model 0.84; edge +0.34; luna-medium price-blind says 0.84 vs market 0.50 (edge +0.34 >= 0.2): Base rate: only ~1% of broad meme-token launches remain actively traded after a week, but this is a media-confirmed, named-date launch; rules are clear, Sep 9 is the scheduled event, and CoinDesk/Defiant plus the official site report $LAPTOP, with the Base contract and liquidity/on-chain trading as the exact resolver, so I estimate 84% despite residual postponement/hoax risk. |
| 09-07 20:41 | v83 | Who will win the Dillibis-Exam rap battle? :: Exam | NO 17 | settled -17 | model 0.22; edge -0.28; luna-medium price-blind says 0.22 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.28 >= 0.1): Base rate: only about 20% of obscure allegedly planned online rap battles with no public listing occur within a one-week window; the rules provide no tie, cancellation, or non-occurrence clause, no scheduled event appears before the 2026-09-14 close, the exact resolver is unspecified (likely an official battle video or announcement), no matching witness markets exist, and conditional on the battle occurring I have no evidence favoring either rapper, so ambiguity pulls the estimate upward toward 0.5. |
| 09-07 19:56 | v83 | Will a Ford M-Sport or Hyundai car win WRC Rally Chile Biobío 2026? | NO 35 | settled +26 | model 0.21; edge -0.29; luna-medium price-blind says 0.21 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.29 >= 0.2): Base rate: non-Toyota winners occurred in 2 of 4 prior Chile WRC editions (50%), but Hyundai/Ford have won only 1 of 11 2026 rounds (9.1%); Toyota leads the standings, so I estimate 21%, with the clear rules resolving via official WRC final classifications after the Sep 10–13 rally, and Paraguay podiums offering limited win evidence ([WRC](https://www.wrc.com/en/events/wrc-rally-chile-bio-bio-2026), [FIA standings](https://www.fia.com/events/world-rally-championship/season-2026/standings)). |
| 09-07 19:18 | v83 | Name of Foldable iPhone :: Fold | YES 1 | settled -1 | model 0.28; edge +0.20; luna-medium price-blind says 0.28 vs answer 0.08 (edge +0.20 >= 0.1): Base rate: 0/10 prior iPhone models used a literal form-factor name like Fold; rules are absent, so exact-name versus substring/common-name readings pull toward 0.5; sentiment favors Fold but reporting favors Ultra, with Apple’s September 9 event before close, and the resolver should be Apple’s official product announcement (not rumor proxies), while related reporting is only a non-matching witness ([Apple event](https://developer.apple.com/hello/september26/), [MacRumors](https://www.macrumors.com/2026/09/04/iphone-duo/)). |
| 09-07 19:00 | v83 | What will be my league result? :: Promoting to Platinum | YES 3 | open +4 | model 0.45; edge +0.12; luna-medium price-blind says 0.45 vs answer 0.33 (edge +0.12 >= 0.1): A roughly 20–30% promotion base rate, unknown current rank, volatile remaining month, and materially ambiguous resolution wording justify a near-coin-flip estimate. |
| 09-07 19:00 | v83 | What will be my league result? :: Remaining in Gold | YES 5 | open -4 | model 0.52; edge +0.19; luna-medium price-blind says 0.52 vs answer 0.33 (edge +0.19 >= 0.1): Gold retention has an estimated 60% base rate, but the vague resolution rule and unknown current standing make this close to a coin flip. |
| 09-07 19:00 | v83 | What will be my league result? :: Demoting to Silver | YES 5 | open -4 | model 0.50; edge +0.17; luna-medium price-blind says 0.50 vs answer 0.33 (edge +0.17 >= 0.1): Historical Gold-to-Silver demotion is roughly 10–20%, but the rules and the linked cohort do not identify the user or define resolution, so ambiguity dominates; the relevant event is the September 30 league close, settled by Manifold’s official Season 41 standings. |
| 09-07 18:43 | v83 | Will Trump ban Bombardier from selling in the US by the end of this year? | YES 22 | open -8 | model 0.70; edge +0.20; luna-medium price-blind says 0.70 vs market 0.50 (edge +0.20 >= 0.2): Base rate is 50% (one of two recent Trump-Bombardier aircraft threats produced a concrete restriction); Trump’s September 7 Truth Social post explicitly said “NO MORE SELLING BOMBARDIER IN THE UNITED STATES,” but absent resolution rules it is unclear whether rhetoric counts as a legal ban, while the July Section 232 process has no scheduled decision before the December 31 close and its 180-day update falls after close; the resolver should be an official presidential action or agency rule, with Reuters and Trump’s archived post as proxies. |
| 09-07 17:58 | v83 | Who will be in the TOP 3 of the Manifold Market Masters League Season 41? :: @Jack1 | NO 13 | open +1 | model 0.14; edge -0.52; luna-medium price-blind says 0.14 vs answer 0.66 (edge -0.52 >= 0.3): A 15% top-three base rate, modestly adjusted for Jack1’s demonstrated Masters participation, gives about a 14% chance, with no reliable current-standings witness and a clear official-rollover resolver. |
| 09-07 17:58 | v83 | Who will be in the TOP 3 of the Manifold Market Masters League Season 41? :: @MachiNi | NO 0 | unfilled | model 0.03; edge -0.47; luna-medium price-blind says 0.03 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.47 >= 0.3): MachiNi’s estimated 3% chance is below the 6% random top-three base rate because I found no evidence of current Masters-League strength or a matching market witness. |
| 09-07 17:58 | v83 | Who will be in the TOP 3 of the Manifold Market Masters League Season 41? :: @Lion | NO 0 | unfilled | model 0.04; edge -0.46; luna-medium price-blind says 0.04 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.46 >= 0.3): Using the roughly 6% structural top-three base rate for a 50-person Masters field, discounted because I found no evidence that @Lion is currently among the leading contestants. |
| 09-07 17:58 | v83 | Who will be in the TOP 3 of the Manifold Market Masters League Season 41? :: @brianwang | NO 0 | unfilled | model 0.05; edge -0.45; luna-medium price-blind says 0.05 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.45 >= 0.3): Using the 6% random top-three base rate, with no verified evidence that Brian Wang is currently near the leaders and substantial monthly leaderboard volatility, I estimate a slightly-below-base-rate 5% chance. |
| 09-07 16:47 | v83 | Will Progress MS-35 launch be delayed by more than a week? | NO 58 | settled +75 | model 0.07; edge -0.43; luna-medium price-blind says 0.07 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.43 >= 0.2): Recent Progress/Soyuz operations and the September 6 rollout support an on-time launch; allowing for the low but nontrivial risk of a technical or range scrub, the probability of missing the September 16 16:15 UTC cutoff is about 7%. |
| 09-07 16:29 | v83 | Will P vs NP be resolved after man lands on Mars? | NO 28 | open +3 | model 0.34; edge -0.32; luna-medium price-blind says 0.34 vs market 0.66 (edge -0.32 >= 0.2): Base rate: only 1 of the 7 Millennium Problems has been solved since 2000, while no human has landed on Mars; NASA’s scheduled Artemis III (2027) and Artemis IV (2028) are lunar risk-reduction events, not Mars landings, and NASA only says Mars missions could occur as early as the 2030s ([Clay](https://www.claymath.org/problem/unsolved/), [NASA](https://www.nasa.gov/humans-in-space/humans-to-mars/)); using Clay’s status as the P-vs-NP resolver and an official mission announcement/telemetry as the Mars resolver, I estimate roughly a 10% chance P≠NP is community-accepted by 2040 versus roughly 35% for a human Mars landing, with the missing neither-event-at-close clause pulling the estimate toward 0.5. |
| 09-07 12:51 | v83 | What results will happen during Week 2 of the 2026 College Football Season? :: Virginia defeats Norfolk State | YES 17 | settled +10 | model 0.98; edge +0.48; luna-medium price-blind says 0.98 vs answer 0.50 (edge +0.48 >= 0.3): Virginia is an ACC/FBS home favorite over FCS Norfolk State, with a 96.6% historical FBS-over-FCS base rate and roughly 97.7%–99% current proxy estimates. |
| 09-07 12:51 | v83 | What results will happen during Week 2 of the 2026 College Football Season? :: North Carolina defeats East Ten | YES 17 | settled +10 | model 0.98; edge +0.48; luna-medium price-blind says 0.98 vs answer 0.50 (edge +0.48 >= 0.3): UNC is a major home favorite over FCS-level ETSU in the Week 2 game, with the schedule confirmed and market-implied win probability near 99%, tempered slightly by undefined resolution rules. |
| 09-07 12:51 | v83 | What results will happen during Week 2 of the 2026 College Football Season? :: Miami defeats Florida A&M | YES 0 | unfilled | model 1.00; edge +0.50; luna-medium price-blind says 1.00 vs answer 0.50 (edge +0.50 >= 0.3): Miami is a ranked FBS home favorite against FCS Florida A&M, with a 2–0 historical head-to-head record and a large current strength gap, so a Miami win is overwhelmingly likely despite underspecified resolution rules. |
| 09-07 12:51 | v83 | What results will happen during Week 2 of the 2026 College Football Season? :: Florida defeats Campbell | YES 18 | settled +10 | model 0.99; edge +0.49; luna-medium price-blind says 0.99 vs answer 0.50 (edge +0.49 >= 0.3): Florida is a major-conference home favorite over an FCS opponent, with a 96.6% recent FBS-over-FCS base rate and no substantial contrary evidence. |
| 09-07 11:33 | v83 | Cycling World Championships 2026 - Women's Road Race Winner :: Demi Vollering | NO 0 | unfilled | model 0.27; edge -0.18; luna-medium price-blind says 0.27 vs answer 0.45 (edge -0.18 >= 0.1): Base rate: 7 different winners in the last 10 editions (10% unconditional one-rider baseline); rules are clear, and Vollering’s exceptional 2026 form plus a course suited to her raise her to about 27%, tempered by one-day race volatility and Dutch-team tactical uncertainty; the Women Elite Road Race is scheduled for September 26 before close, with the UCI official results page/result book as resolver, while a 4.00 odds proxy implies roughly 25% before margin. [UCI course](https://www.uci.org/pressrelease/200-days-to-go-a-look-at-the-courses-of-the-2026-uci-road/7MNCbBHZySudjNAoDW4R8x) [official schedule](https://assets.ctfassets.net/761l7gh5x5an/wmgNMqwdpy020sBstc8f1/dda3011dfa9b3194a75ceb3e80c4810d/2026_RWC_SPORT_COMPETITION_SCHEDULE_FINAL_ENG_03_DEC_2025.pdf) |
| 09-07 10:45 | v83 | On which dates will OpenAI Reset Limits? :: Oct 12 | NO 0 | unfilled | model 0.14; edge -0.36; luna-medium price-blind says 0.14 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.36 >= 0.3): The tracker records 51 resets at a 7.1-day average interval, implying roughly a 14% chance on any exact date; no reset is scheduled for Oct 12, and the named resolver is codex-resets.com. |
| 09-07 10:45 | v83 | On which dates will OpenAI Reset Limits? :: Oct 5 | NO 7 | open +2 | model 0.12; edge -0.38; luna-medium price-blind says 0.12 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.38 >= 0.3): Base rate is 51 resets over roughly 355 days (14.4%; 5/51 on Mondays), the resolver is the non-official [Codex Resets tracker](https://codex-resets.com/) based on @thsottiaux announcements, and with no Oct 5 reset event scheduled—though DevDay is Sep 29 and nearby Academy events run Oct 1–2 and Oct 7—this date-specific estimate is 12%. |
| 09-07 10:45 | v83 | On which dates will OpenAI Reset Limits? :: Oct 7 | NO 6 | open +2 | model 0.13; edge -0.37; luna-medium price-blind says 0.13 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.37 >= 0.3): The tracker’s 7.1-day average interval implies about a 14% exact-date base rate, reduced slightly for Wednesday timing and ambiguity over timezone/reset type. |
| 09-07 10:45 | v83 | On which dates will OpenAI Reset Limits? :: Sep 30 | NO 0 | unfilled | model 0.14; edge -0.36; luna-medium price-blind says 0.14 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.36 >= 0.3): Base rate is 51 resets over roughly 355 days, or one every 7.1 days (about 14% per specific day); the tracker shows no scheduled Sep 30 event, and its announcement feed is only a proxy for OpenAI’s official X announcements. |
| 09-07 09:27 | v83 | CDU above 5% in 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election? | YES 100 | settled -100 | model 0.91; edge +0.36; luna-medium price-blind says 0.91 vs market 0.55 (edge +0.36 >= 0.2): CDU has cleared 5% in all 8 prior state elections and polls 8–10% immediately before the 20 September vote, so I estimate a roughly 9% chance of falling below the threshold. |
| 09-07 08:26 | v83 | Which EU country will have the highest unemployment rate? :: Finland | YES 4 | open +1 | model 0.61; edge +0.47; luna-medium price-blind says 0.61 vs answer 0.14 (edge +0.47 >= 0.1): Finland has led all seven available 2026 monthly rankings and currently holds a 0.5-point margin over Spain, but Spain led both 2024 and 2025 annually, making Finland’s December lead plausible but far from certain. |
| 09-07 08:26 | v83 | Which EU country will have the highest unemployment rate? :: Estonia | NO 27 | open +1 | model 0.00; edge -0.14; luna-medium price-blind says 0.00 vs answer 0.14 (edge -0.14 >= 0.1): Base rate is 0 of the last 2 annual EU rankings and 0 of the last 2 December readings for Estonia, while July 2026 had Finland at 10.5% versus Estonia near 7%; rules are clear, October–December Eurostat releases precede the 31 December close but December data arrive afterward, and the exact resolver is Eurostat ei_lmhr_m, so Estonia needs an unusually large relative deterioration. |
| 09-07 08:26 | v83 | Which EU country will have the highest unemployment rate? :: France | NO 0 | unfilled | model 0.01; edge -0.13; luna-medium price-blind says 0.01 vs answer 0.14 (edge -0.13 >= 0.1): France is far below Finland and Spain in the latest Eurostat data, has not led any available 2026 month or recent annual observation, and would need an unusually large relative deterioration by December. |
| 09-07 08:26 | v83 | Which EU country will have the highest unemployment rate? :: Sweden | NO 0 | unfilled | model 0.01; edge -0.13; luna-medium price-blind says 0.01 vs answer 0.14 (edge -0.13 >= 0.1): Base rate: Sweden was highest in 0 of the five recent comparable Eurostat snapshots (0%), and July 2026 had Finland at 10.5%, Spain 10.0%, and Sweden 8.7%; Sweden’s 2026 forecast is 8.5% versus Finland’s 10.1% and Spain’s 9.9%, so despite December uncertainty the chance is about 1.5%, with Eurostat’s December release in late January/early February 2027 settling the exact ei_lmhr_m result (no directly relevant pre-close event). [Eurostat July 2026](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-euro-indicators/w/3-01092026-bp) [Commission forecasts](https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/economic-surveillance-eu-member-states/country-pages-including-country-reports/sweden/economic-forecast-sweden_en) |
| 09-07 08:05 | v83 | Am I going to promote, demote, or remain in my league (season 41) :: I demote | NO 8 | open +3 | model 0.18; edge -0.15; luna-medium price-blind says 0.18 vs answer 0.33 (edge -0.15 >= 0.1): The base demotion rate is roughly 10% (5 Silver demotion slots per approximately 50 traders), increased to 18% because a new/inactive account may finish near the bottom, while the rule inconsistency and prior remain result add uncertainty. |
| 09-07 08:05 | v83 | Am I going to promote, demote, or remain in my league (season 41) :: I remain | YES 6 | open +3 | model 0.56; edge +0.23; luna-medium price-blind says 0.56 vs answer 0.33 (edge +0.23 >= 0.1): Base rate: Silver's 7 promotion and 5 demotion slots imply about 52% remain in a 25-person cohort; official rules confirm demotion is possible, the September season-end transition around October 1–2 is the key scheduled event, the exact resolver is Manifold's Season 41 Silver cohort/results page, and Rick's only prior observed season ended in remain (1/1), though that witness is too small to outweigh the base rate. |
| 09-07 08:03 | v83 | Real Madrid vs Inter | UEFA Champions League Match Winner (7 Sep, 2026) :: Draw | YES 4 | settled -4 | model 0.35; edge +0.15; luna-medium price-blind says 0.35 vs answer 0.20 (edge +0.15 >= 0.1): Champions League draws historically occur about 25% of the time; UEFA and Real Madrid list the fixture for 8 Sep 2026 (not 7 Sep), with no event before close and no resolution rules supplied, so ambiguity pulls the estimate toward 0.5 despite Real Madrid’s home advantage. |
| 09-07 07:53 | v83 | Will Wes Moore win the 2026 Maryland Governors election by 34.000% or more? | NO 100 | open +11 | model 0.14; edge -0.34; luna-medium price-blind says 0.14 vs market 0.49 (edge -0.35 >= 0.2): Base rate is 0 of Maryland’s 8 gubernatorial elections since 1990 clearing a 34-point margin; the official resolver is the 2026 Maryland gubernatorial election Wikipedia result, with Nov. 3 as the decisive scheduled event, while proxy evidence points to Moore around D+26–27 (2022 was D+32.41), so despite a strong narrative the threshold remains unlikely; “by 34%” is mildly ambiguous but interpreted as a 34-point victory margin. |
| 09-07 07:08 | v83 | US Average Gas Price Is $4.000 or more on November 1 2026? | NO 100 | open -37 | model 0.29; edge -0.26; luna-medium price-blind says 0.29 vs market 0.55 (edge -0.26 >= 0.2): Despite the unusually high $4.1473 starting point, the historical November 1 base rate is 0%, seasonal and futures signals point below $4, and only persistent Middle East or supply disruption would likely keep AAA’s exact November 1 regular average above the threshold. |
| 09-07 06:57 | v83 | Will MS Now show Trumps full 2026 RNC convention speech? | YES 22 | open -1 | model 0.68; edge +0.55; luna-medium price-blind says 0.68 vs market 0.13 (edge +0.55 >= 0.2): Base rate: roughly 75% of major presidential convention speeches receive full live cable-news carriage; rules are ambiguous about whether online or replayed coverage counts, pulling this toward 0.5; Trump is scheduled to give the closing keynote Sept. 10 before market close, but the exact resolver is MS NOW’s broadcast/video record and no MS NOW commitment is announced, so I discount the RNC schedule and prior MS NOW special-coverage precedent as proxies. |
| 09-07 06:56 | v83 | Will the 2028 Democratic Nominee win any state by 10.000% or more, that was won by trump in 2024? | NO 45 | open +7 | model 0.14; edge -0.36; luna-medium price-blind says 0.14 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.36 >= 0.2): A Democratic nominee winning any 2024 Trump state by at least 10 points requires an historically rare 20-plus-point state swing, with Iowa or Ohio the likeliest paths, while the missing resolution rules add uncertainty. |
| 09-07 06:40 | v83 | Will an official manifold account make markets for every state in every presidential election up to 2040 | NO 0 | unfilled | model 0.04; edge -0.46; luna-medium price-blind says 0.04 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.46 >= 0.2): Base rate proxy is 0/1 comparable official-account bundles observed; the rules require roughly 200 state-year markets by 2026-12-31, the 2026-11-03 midterms are the only relevant scheduled catalyst, Manifold’s existing national-election markets are a non-matching witness, and the resolver is Manifold’s official account/market pages. |
| 09-07 06:17 | v83 | Will James Talarico win Tarrant County by 7.000% or more in the 2026 Texas Senate election? | NO 100 | open +12 | model 0.30; edge -0.31; luna-medium price-blind says 0.30 vs market 0.61 (edge -0.31 >= 0.2): Base rate: Tarrant’s last three U.S. Senate Democratic margins were +0.69, −5.30, and +0.22 points (0/3 reached +7%; SD ≈3.4 points) ([2018](https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/elchist331_county220.htm), [2020](https://www.tarrantcountytx.gov/content/dam/main/elections/2020/1120/reports/cumulative_1120_1230am.pdf), [2024](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_Senate_election_in_Texas)); the rules appear to mean a seven-point percentage margin on the specified Wikipedia result tables, with little ambiguity; current statewide polling modestly favors Talarico but is sentiment/proxy evidence rather than a Tarrant witness; the key scheduled events are Texas registration on October 5, early voting October 19–30, and Election Day November 3 ([Texas SOS](https://www.sos.texas.gov/elections/candidates/guide/2026/dates2026.shtml)); the resolver is the final Tarrant County result reported on the linked Wikipedia pages, ideally cross-checked against official canvass data, and no matching county-level market witness is available, so I estimate 30%. |
| 09-07 06:15 | v83 | Will California be an independent nation-state by EOY 2035? | NO 83 | open +15 | model 0.01; edge -0.27; luna-medium price-blind says 0.01 vs market 0.27 (edge -0.27 >= 0.2): Base rate: 0 of 50 U.S. states have successfully seceded since the Civil War, and established democracies have had 0 successful secessions; the rules require genuine sovereignty plus U.S. recognition or UN admission, making the 2028 non-binding plebiscite [non-dispositive](https://lao.ca.gov/BallotAnalysis/Initiative/2025-010), while the exact resolvers are California SOS, the U.S. federal government, or the UN ([UN criteria](https://www.un.org/en/about-us/about-un-membership), [Texas v. White](https://www.law.cornell.edu/supremecourt/text/74/700)); related markets concern only ballot qualification and do not match this resolution, so despite AGI/geopolitical tail risk I estimate 0.5%. |
| 09-07 05:53 | v83 | Which party will win the 2028 presidential election in Arizona? :: Republicans | YES 7 | open -0 | model 0.64; edge +0.14; luna-medium price-blind says 0.64 vs answer 0.50 (edge +0.14 >= 0.1): Republicans’ strong Arizona base rate and 2024 win outweigh the state’s recent competitiveness, but the open-seat 2028 environment and long forecast horizon warrant a substantial discount. |
| 09-07 05:51 | v83 | Which party will win the 2028 presidential election in North Carolina? :: Democrats | NO 11 | open -0 | model 0.30; edge -0.20; luna-medium price-blind says 0.30 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.20 >= 0.1): Democrats have won North Carolina only once in the last five presidential elections (20%), while the 2028 open-cycle uncertainty and the state’s competitiveness justify lifting the estimate modestly above that base rate. |
| 09-07 05:51 | v83 | Which party will win the 2028 presidential election in North Carolina? :: Republicans | YES 6 | open -0 | model 0.62; edge +0.12; luna-medium price-blind says 0.62 vs answer 0.50 (edge +0.12 >= 0.1): Base rate is Republican 11/13 since 1968 and 5/6 since 2000; rules make AP’s state-winner declaration decisive, the 2028 general election is scheduled for Nov. 7, 2028, current generic polling is tied while a projection gives Republicans 51.5%, and no matching-rule witness materially shifts the estimate from the historical GOP edge ([history](https://www.axios.com/local/charlotte/2020/10/27/how-charlotte-voted-in-the-past-7-presidential-elections-plus-2020-turnout), [schedule](https://www.usa.gov/presidential-election-process), [projection](https://www.americanpresidents.net/projections/2028/2028-us-presidential-projection.php), [resolver](https://www.ap.org/elections/our-role-in-the-u-s-elections/how-we-declare-winners/)). |
| 09-07 05:46 | v83 | Test :: Q | YES 0 | unfilled | model 0.50; edge +0.17; luna-medium price-blind says 0.50 vs answer 0.33 (edge +0.17 >= 0.1): Base rate: undefined (0% observed evidence for this nonpredictive test); with no resolution rules, resolver, or relevant calendar event, the ambiguity warrants a 0.50 estimate. |
| 09-07 05:46 | v83 | Test :: B | YES 49 | open | model 0.50; edge +0.17; luna-medium price-blind says 0.50 vs answer 0.33 (edge +0.17 >= 0.1): Base rate: 50% absent any defined event; the missing resolution rules and resolver make the question fundamentally ambiguous, with no identifiable calendar event or matching witness market. |
| 09-07 05:46 | v83 | Test :: C | YES 49 | open | model 0.50; edge +0.17; luna-medium price-blind says 0.50 vs answer 0.33 (edge +0.17 >= 0.1): Base rate is unavailable because “Test :: C” has no defined proposition; the absent resolution rules and exact resolver make YES/NO equally plausible, with no identifiable calendar event or matching witness. |
| 09-07 04:29 | v83 | Which party will win the 2027 Louisiana governor election? :: Republicans | YES 15 | open +4 | model 0.86; edge +0.25; luna-medium price-blind says 0.86 vs answer 0.61 (edge +0.25 >= 0.1): Base rate: Republicans won 5 of Louisiana’s last 12 gubernatorial elections (42%), but current structural conditions favor them; the blank rules create mild ambiguity, while the Oct. 16, 2027 primary and possible Nov. 13 runoff precede the Nov. 30 close, the resolver should be the Louisiana Secretary of State’s certified returns, and the matching Kalshi market is about 87% Republican despite thin liquidity ([SOS](https://www.sos.la.gov/elections-voting/elections-history), [law](https://www.legis.la.gov/legis/Law.aspx?d=81545), [Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/govpartyla/la-gov/govpartyla-27)). |
| 09-07 04:19 | v83 | Who will win the 2027 Democratic primary for governor of Kentucky? :: Jacqueline Coleman | YES 0 | unfilled | model 0.68; edge +0.18; luna-medium price-blind says 0.68 vs answer 0.50 (edge +0.18 >= 0.1): Base rate is 50% for a two-candidate primary; Coleman leads Adkins 40%-14% in the only public poll, but it is sponsored by a pro-Coleman group, so I discount it to 68%; the May 18, 2027 primary is the key scheduled event, and the resolver is the [Wikipedia election page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2027_Kentucky_gubernatorial_election), with no matching primary-market witness. |
| 09-07 02:34 | v83 | Next government of Saxony-Anhalt? :: AfD + BSW coalition | YES 21 | open +3 | model 0.28; edge +0.14; luna-medium price-blind says 0.28 vs answer 0.14 (edge +0.14 >= 0.1): AfD and BSW have the seats to form a majority, but Germany’s zero-case historical base rate, BSW’s preference for toleration/third-way arrangements, and the signed-contract rule make a qualifying coalition unlikely. |
| 09-07 02:34 | v83 | Next government of Saxony-Anhalt? :: CDU minority government | YES 47 | open -20 | model 0.44; edge +0.30; luna-medium price-blind says 0.44 vs answer 0.14 (edge +0.30 >= 0.1): Base rate: Saxony-Anhalt has had 2 minority governments since reunification, both SPD-led, so CDU-minority is 0/2 historically; rules make any public interparty contract resolve as coalition, while the 6 September 2026 election produced an AfD plurality without a majority, making CDU-led informal toleration plausible but ambiguous; the scheduled election was the key event, the resolver is the official Landtag record of the next minister-president oath plus Staatskanzlei-published contracts, and no matching witness market was found. |
| 09-07 02:34 | v83 | Next government of Saxony-Anhalt? :: AfD minority government | YES 31 | open +15 | model 0.34; edge +0.20; luna-medium price-blind says 0.34 vs answer 0.14 (edge +0.20 >= 0.1): Despite the AfD’s near-majority and a plausible third-ballot plurality path, its candidate rejects minority rule, BSW rejects electing him, and opposition coordination or a signed non-AfD arrangement remains more likely. |
| 09-07 01:56 | v83 | Will any US Senate election in 2026 have a winning margin of 1.000% or less? | YES 100 | open +5 | model 0.82; edge +0.22; luna-medium price-blind says 0.82 vs market 0.60 (edge +0.22 >= 0.2): Base rate: at least one Senate race finished within 1 point in 4 of the last 5 cycles (about 80%; roughly 4% per race); the 2026 map has several competitive targets, especially Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Maine, Alaska, Texas, and Ohio, with Election Day on November 3 and a possible Georgia runoff on December 1; I would use the relevant state-certified canvass as the resolver, while current forecast/polling proxies indicate multiple plausible sub-1-point outcomes, with modest downward adjustment for unspecified source and margin-calculation rules. |
| 09-07 01:55 | v83 | Will the 2028 Republican presidential candidate win any state Kamala Harris won in 2024? | YES 28 | open -5 | model 0.74; edge +0.45; luna-medium price-blind says 0.74 vs market 0.29 (edge +0.45 >= 0.2): The historical base rate is 83% (5/6 postwar Democratic-to-Republican transitions), and although most of Harris’s 2024 states are safely Democratic, Minnesota, New Mexico, Virginia, or Maine could plausibly flip; ambiguous rules warrant a modest pull toward 0.5. |
| 09-07 01:52 | v83 | How will the next Supreme Court justice be confirmed? :: Democratic President, Republican Senate | YES 5 | open -0 | model 0.24; edge +0.18; luna-medium price-blind says 0.24 vs answer 0.06 (edge +0.18 >= 0.1): A Democratic president with a Republican Senate is plausible over the 2026–2043 election horizon, but it remains an uncommon confirmation configuration historically and the next vacancy is more likely to occur under another party alignment. |
| 09-07 01:52 | v83 | How will the next Supreme Court justice be confirmed? :: Republican President, Republican senate | YES 2 | open -0 | model 0.48; edge +0.11; luna-medium price-blind says 0.48 vs answer 0.37 (edge +0.11 >= 0.1): Historical unified-control rates and the current Republican alignment support YES, but the next vacancy could occur after several presidential and Senate turnovers before 2043. |
| 09-07 01:52 | v83 | How will the next Supreme Court justice be confirmed? :: Republican President, Democratic senate | YES 6 | open +3 | model 0.28; edge +0.22; luna-medium price-blind says 0.28 vs answer 0.06 (edge +0.22 >= 0.1): Base rate: 128 of 165 Supreme Court nominations (77.6%) have been confirmed; under these rules only an actual Senate confirmation counts, and the historical divided-control confirmation rate is low (4 of 17 election-year confirmations, 24%), while the 2026, 2028, and 2030 elections are scheduled before the 2043 close, so I estimate a 28% chance that the next confirmed justice occurs with a Republican president and Democratic Senate, resolved by the official Senate nomination and roll-call record (with no matching market witness used). |
| 09-07 01:52 | v83 | How will the next Supreme Court justice be confirmed? :: Democratic President, Democratic senate | NO 7 | open +0 | model 0.27; edge -0.19; luna-medium price-blind says 0.27 vs answer 0.46 (edge -0.19 >= 0.1): The modern Democratic-president/Democratic-Senate base rate is about 31%, but the current Republican alignment and likely near-term vacancy timing reduce this to 27%; long-run elections and rule ambiguity prevent a much lower estimate. |
| 09-07 01:49 | v83 | Which party will win the 2028 presidential election in Nebraskas 3rd Congressional District? :: Democrats | NO 27 | open +4 | model 0.01; edge -0.22; luna-medium price-blind says 0.01 vs answer 0.24 (edge -0.22 >= 0.1): Base rate: Democrats won NE-3 in 0 of the last 3 presidential elections, and Trump won it 77%-23% in 2024; the district is about R+29, so despite 2026 midterms and the 2028 primaries/conventions before Election Day (November 7, 2028), I estimate only 1.5%, resolved by the AP’s 2028 district race call. |
| 09-07 01:49 | v83 | Which party will win the 2028 presidential election in Nebraskas 3rd Congressional District? :: Republicans | YES 26 | open +6 | model 0.98; edge +0.35; luna-medium price-blind says 0.98 vs answer 0.64 (edge +0.35 >= 0.1): Republicans have won NE-3 in all seven presidential elections since 2000, including by roughly 54 points in 2024, so despite two years of uncertainty the probability of an AP-declared Republican winner is about 98.5%. |
| 09-07 01:48 | v83 | Which party will win the 2028 presidential election in Nebraskas 1st Congressional District? :: Republicans | YES 13 | open -1 | model 0.88; edge +0.13; luna-medium price-blind says 0.88 vs answer 0.75 (edge +0.13 >= 0.1): Base rate is 9/9 Republican presidential wins in NE-1 since 1992; Nebraska’s certified 2024 result and AP’s race call both favored Republicans, no relevant scheduled event occurs before the Nov. 6 close (Election Day is Nov. 7, 2028), and the exact resolver is AP’s 2028 NE-1 race declaration, with no matching witness market used. |
| 09-07 01:48 | v83 | Which party will win the 2028 presidential election in Nebraskas 2nd Congressional District? :: Republicans | YES 4 | open -1 | model 0.48; edge +0.16; luna-medium price-blind says 0.48 vs answer 0.32 (edge +0.16 >= 0.1): Republicans won NE-2 in 3 of the last 5 presidential elections (60% base rate), but Democrats won in 2024 and 2020; with no reliable 2028 witness market, substantial national uncertainty, the 2026 midterms and 2028 election cycle still ahead, and resolution relying specifically on AP’s call, I estimate 48%. |
| 09-07 01:41 | v83 | Which party will win the 2028 presidential election in Oklahoma? :: Republicans | YES 40 | open +0 | model 0.99; edge +0.11; luna-medium price-blind says 0.99 vs answer 0.89 (edge +0.11 >= 0.1): Base rate: Republicans won Oklahoma in 15 of the last 15 presidential elections (100%); the rules are clear and resolve to the Associated Press Oklahoma race call, with Election Day on November 7, 2028 as the key scheduled event, so despite long-horizon uncertainty and no reliable market witness, YES is estimated at 99.2%. |
| 09-07 01:39 | v83 | Which party will win the 2028 presidential election in Wyoming? :: Republicans | YES 30 | open +2 | model 0.98; edge +0.16; luna-medium price-blind says 0.98 vs answer 0.82 (edge +0.16 >= 0.1): Republicans won 12 of Wyoming’s 15 presidential elections since 1968 (80%) and all 7 since 2000; the state’s large GOP margins make 2028 highly likely to remain Republican, with AP’s state call as resolver and November 7, 2028 as the decisive scheduled event ([Wyoming Secretary of State](https://sos.wyo.gov/Services/docs/PresidentialVote.pdf), [AP](https://www.ap.org/elections/our-role-in-the-u-s-elections/how-we-declare-winners/), [USA.gov](https://www.usa.gov/presidential-election-process)). |
| 09-07 01:35 | v83 | Which party will win the 2028 presidential election in Alabama? :: Republicans | YES 30 | open +2 | model 0.98; edge +0.16; luna-medium price-blind says 0.98 vs answer 0.82 (edge +0.16 >= 0.1): Base rate is 12/12 Republican presidential wins in Alabama from 1980–2024 (100%), including a 30.47-point Republican margin in 2024; the rules are clear and the resolver is AP’s election results/call, with 2028 primaries, conventions, debates, and the Nov. 7 general election scheduled before close, though the long horizon and unknown nominees warrant a small discount. |
| 09-07 01:34 | v83 | Which party will win the 2028 presidential election in Utah? :: Republicans | YES 26 | open -2 | model 0.97; edge +0.18; luna-medium price-blind says 0.97 vs answer 0.79 (edge +0.18 >= 0.1): Utah Republicans won 15/15 presidential elections from 1968–2024, including 2024 by 21.6 points; the rules are clear and resolve to the Associated Press winner declaration, with November 7, 2028 as the decisive scheduled event, though long-horizon candidate uncertainty merits a small discount from 1.0 ([Utah historical results](https://vote.utah.gov/historical-election-results/), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/3d409a48217ba042f8c699a468ea772f), [USAGov](https://www.usa.gov/presidential-election-process)). |
| 09-07 01:33 | v83 | Which party will win the 2028 presidential election in Mississippi? :: Republicans | YES 30 | open +1 | model 0.98; edge +0.13; luna-medium price-blind says 0.98 vs answer 0.85 (edge +0.13 >= 0.1): Republicans have won Mississippi in 12 straight presidential elections since 1980 (12/13 since 1976), including by 22.9 points in 2024; the scheduled Nov. 7, 2028 election will be resolved by AP's state winner declaration, with no major rule ambiguity. |
| 09-07 01:32 | v83 | Which party will win the 2028 presidential election in Nebraska? :: Republicans | YES 23 | open | model 0.96; edge +0.63; luna-medium price-blind says 0.96 vs answer 0.33 (edge +0.63 >= 0.1): Base rate is 16/16 Nebraska presidential elections Republican since 1964; the rules clearly mean AP’s statewide winner, no relevant event is scheduled before today’s close, and no matching state-specific witness market materially changes the strong partisan prior. |
| 09-07 01:32 | v83 | Which party will win the 2028 presidential election in Nebraska? :: Democrats | NO 25 | open | model 0.03; edge -0.30; luna-medium price-blind says 0.03 vs answer 0.33 (edge -0.30 >= 0.1): Base rate is 0/15 statewide Democratic wins since 1968; the rule is clear, no relevant event occurs before the 2026-09-07 close, and despite a possible 2028 national Democratic wave, Nebraska remains structurally Republican, with AP’s state call—not mismatched national prediction markets—serving as resolver. |
Showing the newest 80 of 303 trades.
303 trades, 7,903 staked, realised +632, open +1339 if held / +633 if sold, 65 unfilled.
In the traces on hand the model priced 0
answers across 0 markets and the module acted on
0 of them (0%). The journal holds
303 trades for 7,903 mana. 56 of them settled for +632.
An estimate the model declines to give is treated as no opinion and never
as a cheap one.
Traces are diagnostic and rotate; the trading journal is the book above.
Built 2026-09-22 17:56Z.