down-fadelive
+189 / +271- bets
- 21
- staked
- 390
- settled
- 4/5 won
- realised
- +168
- open (13) sold
- +22
- open (13) held
- +103
- return sold
- +49%
- return held
- +70%
A promotion starts an empty record. What earlier versions did is on their own pages, below.
Longshots at 0.03-0.15 inside 24h of close resolve NO about 95% of the time.
0bets by entry price1Favourites at 0.90-0.97 inside 24h of close resolve YES about 99% of the time.
0bets by entry price1Bets a brand-new untraded market from its opening price toward the historical resolution rate of its cell (type x price x horizon x ante).
0bets by entry price1The catch-all 'Other' answer in winner-take-all markets is overpriced above 0.20; buys NO toward 0.12.
0bets by entry price1A single 100+ mana YES bet that pushes a mid-life market up 5+ points is overconfident on average; fades it.
0bets by entry price1Independent multiple-choice answers listed at creation resolve YES far less often than their 0.50 opens imply.
0bets by entry price1A price-blind language-model estimate on each new market; bets only when it disagrees with the price by more than the configured edge.
0bets by entry price1Exit policy for codex-open positions.
disabled in this version's config
Quotes both sides of busy event markets and collects the spread.
disabled in this version's config
Buys the lowest bucket of a new numeric or date market.
judged 296 markets, placed nothing
Parks idle mana as NO in stale mid-priced books instead of leaving it in cash.
judged 143 markets, placed nothing
Each paper sim against prod over the sim's own window, de-scaled to prod's stake. The verdict is the canary's, not the page's. All of them, with the fidelity twin.
No candidate is running.
One row per version, prod eras and paper sims, each its own record and its own page. Real mana solid, paper dashed.
| version | mana | status · window | bets | staked | realised | open held | open sold | per day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| v89 | real | live in prod 2026-09-19 16:42Z → running | 221 | 5,709 | +338 | +386 | -116 | +242.3 |
| v88 | real | retired, book still settling 2026-09-03 13:36Z → 2026-09-19 16:42Z | 1117 | 30,685 | +928 | +4016 | +1235 | +306.5 |
| v81 | real | retired, book still settling 2026-08-30 09:55Z → 2026-09-03 13:36Z | 393 | 13,334 | +1646 | +760 | +5 | +579.2 |
| v80 | real | retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 19:42Z → 2026-08-30 09:55Z | 26 | 595 | +7 | -1 | -6 | +11.3 |
| v78 | real | retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 17:15Z → 2026-08-29 19:28Z | 11 | 411 | +25 | -47 | -71 | -242.6 |
| v77 | real | retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 16:03Z → 2026-08-29 17:15Z | 5 | 247 | -18 | -32 | -52 | -985.7 |
| v77 | real | retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 16:03Z → 2026-08-29 17:15Z | 5 | 247 | -18 | -32 | -52 | -985.7 |
| v76 | real | retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 15:27Z → 2026-08-29 16:02Z | 10 | 298 | +320 | +0 | +0 | +13115.0 |
| v75 | real | retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 13:01Z → 2026-08-29 15:27Z | 13 | 218 | +149 | +0 | +0 | +1479.0 |
| v74 | real | retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 10:35Z → 2026-08-29 13:01Z | 12 | 128 | +23 | -14 | -22 | +89.3 |
| v73 | real | retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 10:24Z → 2026-08-29 10:35Z | 10 | 250 | +3 | +2 | +1 | +616.5 |
| v72 | real | retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 10:12Z → 2026-08-29 10:24Z | 5 | 125 | +2 | +1 | +1 | +343.1 |
| v71 | real | retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 10:03Z → 2026-08-29 10:12Z | 5 | 125 | +2 | +2 | +2 | +553.2 |
| v70 | real | retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 06:12Z → 2026-08-29 10:03Z | 9 | 150 | -9 | +8 | +8 | -3.0 |
| v67 | real | retired, book still settling 2026-08-28 07:38Z → 2026-08-29 06:12Z | 27 | 475 | -108 | +40 | +21 | -72.3 |
| v66 | real | retired, book still settling 2026-08-28 06:43Z → 2026-08-28 07:38Z | 2 | 50 | +1 | +0 | -0 | +36.5 |
| v65 | real | retired, book still settling 2026-08-27 19:48Z → 2026-08-28 06:43Z | 18 | 253 | +340 | +3 | -3 | +753.4 |
| v64 | real | retired, book still settling 2026-08-27 10:06Z → 2026-08-27 19:48Z | 9 | 227 | +36 | -64 | -72 | -69.3 |
| v63 | real | retired, book still settling 2026-08-27 08:12Z → 2026-08-27 10:06Z | 3 | 75 | +5 | -3 | -5 | +36.5 |
| v62 | real | retired, book still settling 2026-08-27 07:18Z → 2026-08-27 08:12Z | 3 | 69 | +5 | +3 | +2 | +224.9 |
| v89-twin | paper | evaluating 2026-09-19 16:43Z → running | 196 | 3,632 | +191 | +1131 | +520 | +442.7 |
| codex-paper | paper | retired: window-complete 2026-08-22 19:49Z → 2026-08-22 19:49Z | 1 | 40 | +0 | +13 | +4 | - |
| v88-twin | paper | retired: prod-moved 2026-09-03 16:10Z → 2026-09-19 12:21Z | 1412 | 26,687 | +1027 | +5778 | +2442 | +429.6 |
| v87 | paper | retired: superseded-same-day 2026-09-03 00:02Z → 2026-09-03 15:21Z | 54 | 952 | -375 | +95 | -2 | -438.5 |
| v86 | paper | retired: window-complete 2026-09-02 13:27Z → 2026-09-09 15:32Z | 539 | 13,928 | +1183 | +3446 | +1059 | +653.2 |
| v85 | paper | retired: superseded-same-day 2026-09-02 10:16Z → 2026-09-02 13:08Z | 21 | 849 | +775 | +114 | -7 | +7461.3 |
| v84 | paper | retired: superseded-same-day 2026-09-02 02:00Z → 2026-09-02 08:22Z | 46 | 350 | -40 | +42 | +18 | +5.7 |
| v83 | paper | retired: window-complete 2026-09-01 10:09Z → 2026-09-08 03:32Z | 646 | 11,605 | +727 | +2860 | +835 | +533.5 |
| v82 | paper | retired: window-complete 2026-08-30 22:07Z → 2026-09-01 09:44Z | 177 | 3,963 | +247 | +167 | -2 | +279.2 |
| v80-twin | paper | retired: prod-moved 2026-08-29 22:05Z → 2026-08-30 07:42Z | 28 | 650 | +61 | +43 | +20 | +259.9 |
| v77-twin | paper | retired: prod-moved 2026-08-29 16:04Z → 2026-08-29 17:52Z | 15 | 400 | -116 | +170 | +54 | +723.9 |
| v75-twin | paper | retired: prod-moved 2026-08-29 13:31Z → 2026-08-29 15:38Z | 16 | 474 | -200 | +35 | -4 | -1880.5 |
| v72-twin | paper | retired: prod-moved 2026-08-29 10:14Z → 2026-08-29 12:19Z | 11 | 250 | +26 | +20 | +5 | +532.6 |
| v70-twin | paper | retired: prod-moved 2026-08-29 08:17Z → 2026-08-29 08:29Z | 6 | 140 | +2 | +8 | +8 | +1241.1 |
| v68 | paper | retired: window-complete 2026-08-28 13:52Z → 2026-08-30 18:48Z | 73 | 2,211 | +410 | +330 | +249 | +335.1 |
| v67-twin | paper | retired: prod-moved 2026-08-28 08:16Z → 2026-08-29 07:19Z | 32 | 792 | +239 | +112 | +80 | +365.9 |
| v65-twin | paper | retired: prod-moved 2026-08-27 20:15Z → 2026-08-28 02:27Z | 17 | 238 | -57 | +16 | +10 | -159.6 |
| v64-twin | paper | retired: prod-moved 2026-08-27 10:07Z → 2026-08-27 20:07Z | 13 | 334 | +34 | -51 | -58 | -41.4 |
| v63-twin | paper | retired: prod-moved 2026-08-27 08:14Z → 2026-08-27 08:18Z | 5 | 347 | +3 | +22 | +5 | +11001.8 |
| v62-twin | paper | retired: prod-moved 2026-08-27 07:20Z → 2026-08-27 07:48Z | 6 | 310 | +3 | +24 | +13 | +1336.9 |
| v60-twin | paper | retired: prod-moved 2026-08-27 10:06Z → 2026-08-27 10:06Z | 2 | 50 | +3 | +0 | +0 | +109728.0 |
| v59-twin | paper | retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 20:46Z → 2026-08-26 20:46Z | 3 | 84 | +0 | +11 | +1 | +460637.2 |
| v58-twin | paper | retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 12:59Z → 2026-08-26 19:49Z | 13 | 391 | -67 | +13 | -11 | -190.2 |
| v57-twin | paper | retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 12:24Z → 2026-08-26 12:51Z | 2 | 8 | +0 | +12 | +4 | +626.0 |
| v56-twin | paper | retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 12:01Z → 2026-08-26 12:10Z | 3 | 110 | +0 | +75 | +49 | +11809.4 |
| v55-twin | paper | retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 11:41Z → 2026-08-26 11:59Z | 5 | 101 | +1 | +78 | +55 | +6374.5 |
| v53-twin | paper | retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 10:58Z → 2026-08-26 11:04Z | 4 | 70 | +22 | +5 | -2 | +6307.7 |
| v50-twin | paper | retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 10:03Z → 2026-08-26 10:33Z | 5 | 121 | +34 | +28 | +21 | +2885.8 |
| v45 | paper | retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 20:32Z → 2026-08-25 21:04Z | 8 | 605 | -86 | +8 | -41 | -3429.4 |
| v44 | paper | retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 20:28Z → 2026-08-25 20:31Z | 7 | 365 | +15 | -6 | -32 | +5636.0 |
| v41 | paper | retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 14:46Z → 2026-08-25 17:58Z | 9 | 656 | -481 | +3 | -5 | -3573.8 |
| v39 | paper | retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 12:44Z → 2026-08-25 13:31Z | 1 | 100 | -100 | +0 | +0 | -3092.3 |
| v38 | paper | retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 12:18Z → 2026-08-25 12:41Z | 3 | 212 | -12 | +27 | +15 | +973.2 |
| v37 | paper | retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 09:45Z → 2026-08-25 09:45Z | 1 | 28 | +0 | +14 | +12 | +37215.2 |
| v35 | paper | retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 08:50Z → 2026-08-25 08:59Z | 6 | 184 | +57 | +29 | +23 | +14065.5 |
| v34 | paper | retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 08:46Z → 2026-08-25 08:47Z | 1 | 131 | +57 | +0 | +0 | +258245.1 |
| v20 | paper | retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-24 13:39Z → 2026-08-24 14:34Z | 3 | 203 | -10 | +94 | +90 | +2187.4 |
| v16 | paper | retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-24 12:42Z → 2026-08-24 13:15Z | 15 | 375 | -96 | +4 | +0 | -4042.7 |
| v15 | paper | retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-24 12:38Z → 2026-08-24 12:39Z | 9 | 250 | -77 | -26 | -26 | -111952.5 |
| v14 | paper | retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-24 12:35Z → 2026-08-24 12:36Z | 7 | 222 | -74 | -4 | -4 | -86088.4 |
| v13 | paper | retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-24 12:31Z → 2026-08-24 12:32Z | 8 | 227 | -71 | -4 | -4 | -87939.7 |
| v12 | paper | retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-24 12:16Z → 2026-08-24 12:17Z | 8 | 222 | -67 | -4 | -4 | -92033.7 |
| v11 | paper | retired: window-complete 2026-08-23 20:07Z → 2026-08-30 04:03Z | 359 | 10,830 | +1707 | +1482 | +487 | +503.8 |
| v10 | paper | retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-23 08:06Z → 2026-08-23 20:03Z | 30 | 907 | +216 | +257 | +189 | +951.2 |
| v9 | paper | retired: window-complete 2026-08-22 20:03Z → 2026-08-29 00:28Z | 327 | 7,435 | +2028 | +972 | +410 | +485.1 |
| v8 | paper | retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-22 17:52Z → 2026-08-22 19:52Z | 16 | 400 | +76 | +8 | +3 | +1010.6 |
| v7 | paper | retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-22 08:16Z → 2026-08-22 17:06Z | 6 | 120 | +96 | +95 | +33 | +518.9 |
| when | module | market | bet | 0 · price · 1 | result | why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-22 15:58 | whale-fade | NO 74 | open +4 | fade (blind, verify after): single 300-mana YES bet pushed 0.49->0.67; market not in cache | ||
| 09-22 15:04 | codex-open | Will the term Super Intelligents replace Artificial intelligence before EO | NO 55 | open -0 | luna-medium price-blind says 0.08 vs market 0.43 (edge -0.35 >= 0.2): Base rate: I estimate ~1% for an entrenched technical term to be globally displaced within 100 days; with no resolution rules or exact resolver, “replace” is materially ambiguous and pulls the estimate upward, but official terminology still uses “artificial intelligence” ([ISO](https://www.iso.org/standard/74296.html), [ITU](https://www.itu.int/rec/T-REC-L.Sup61-202506-I)), no scheduled event before December 31 mechanically changes this, and no matching witness market is available. | |
| 09-22 15:04 | open-snipe | Will the term Super Intelligents replace Artificial intelligence before EO | NO 15 | open +5 | virgin market: cell [other|mid|>=45d|sm] historically resolves YES 0.33 vs creator open 0.50 | |
| 09-22 14:49 | codex-open | UK Autumn Budget 2026: will a £2 bus fare cap be funded beyond the end of | YES 19 | open +0 | luna-medium price-blind says 0.55 vs market 0.25 (edge +0.30 >= 0.2): Base rate: the £2-or-lower national cap continued beyond its initial horizon in 1 of 2 prior comparable episodes (50%); the rules are clear, the cost-of-living narrative modestly supports continuation, the scheduled event is the 28 October 2026 Budget, and the exact resolver is HM Treasury’s Budget-day documents or speech (the current £2 cap is funded only through 2027) ([DfT announcement](https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/2-bus-fares-from-january-2027), [HMT Budget date](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/chancellor-letter-to-the-treasury-select-committee-tsc-budget-2026-date)); no matching related-market witness was identified. | |
| 09-22 14:48 | codex-open | UK Autumn Budget 2026: will the Energy Profits Levy be raised or extended? | YES 42 | open -0 | luna-medium price-blind says 0.84 vs market 0.35 (edge +0.49 >= 0.2): The 80% historical modification rate, combined with the government’s existing commitment to legislate the successor OGRL and likely confirm it in the 2026 Budget documents, outweighs the chance that the documents omit any qualifying measure. | |
| 09-22 14:47 | codex-open | UK Autumn Budget 2026: will a new first-time buyer ISA replace the Lifetim | YES 40 | open -0 | luna-medium price-blind says 0.82 vs market 0.35 (edge +0.47 >= 0.2): Base-rate prior 0.65 for a UK Budget implementing a previously announced, consulted-on reform; the rules require Budget-day confirmation beyond the consultation, but HM Treasury says the new First Time Buyer ISA will replace LISA and Parliament confirms the successor scheme, with the scheduled 28 October Budget/OBR forecast as the key event and HM Treasury’s Budget speech and documents as the exact resolver; no matching-rule witness market was found, so sentiment is discounted. | |
| 09-22 14:46 | codex-open | Will the UK extend the National Living Wage to 20-year-olds from April 202 | YES 36 | open +0 | luna-medium price-blind says 0.78 vs market 0.40 (edge +0.38 >= 0.2): Base rate: the NLW age threshold has fallen twice since 2016 (about 20% of years), while the LPC proposed 20 in 2027; the rules are clear, the 28 October Budget and end-October LPC advice are the key calendar events, and the exact resolver is a GOV.UK/HMT announcement, with timing flexibility and youth-employment concerns keeping this below certainty. | |
| 09-22 14:40 | codex-open | UK Autumn Budget 2026: will any working-age benefit be cut or uprated belo | YES 17 | open -0 | luna-medium price-blind says 0.57 vs market 0.24 (edge +0.33 >= 0.2): Historical base rate for a UK Budget announcing a working-age benefit rate cut or sub-CPI uprating is about 30%, but the existing LCWRA freeze and ongoing welfare-reform pressure raise this to 57%; the main ambiguity is whether 28 October HM Treasury Budget documents confirm that prior measure, with the Budget speech/documents as the exact resolver and no matched-witness market available. | |
| 09-22 14:36 | codex-open | UK Autumn Budget 2026: will dividend, savings or property income tax rates | YES 13 | open -0 | luna-medium price-blind says 0.44 vs market 0.22 (edge +0.22 >= 0.2): Base rate: 1 of the last 2 UK Autumn Budgets (50%) raised at least one of these rates; the rules are clear and require a rate increase beyond Budget 2025, while current tax-raising pressure and reports of dividend-tax briefings lift the odds despite narrative risk; no decisive scheduled event precedes the 28 October close, and the exact resolver is the Chancellor's speech plus HM Treasury's Budget-day documents, with no matching related-market witness found. | |
| 09-22 14:33 | open-snipe | Will the Commons Library's Autumn Budget 2026 reaction briefing cite Polic | YES 5 | open -0 | virgin market: cell [other|lo|>=45d|sm] historically resolves YES 0.23 vs creator open 0.12 | |
| 09-22 14:33 | open-snipe | Will PolicyEngine publish its UK Autumn Budget analysis by 07:00 GMT on 29 | NO 17 | open +0 | virgin market: cell [other|mid|<45d|sm] historically resolves YES 0.41 vs creator open 0.60 | |
| 09-22 14:33 | open-snipe | UK Autumn Budget 2026: will taxes on banks be increased? | NO 10 | open -0 | virgin market: cell [other|mid|<45d|sm] historically resolves YES 0.41 vs creator open 0.50 | |
| 09-22 14:33 | open-snipe | UK Autumn Budget 2026: will business rates relief be widened beyond pubs a | NO 10 | open -0 | virgin market: cell [other|mid|<45d|sm] historically resolves YES 0.41 vs creator open 0.50 | |
| 09-22 14:32 | open-snipe | UK Autumn Budget 2026: will any working-age benefit be cut or uprated belo | YES 5 | open +3 | virgin market: cell [other|lo|<45d|sm] historically resolves YES 0.29 vs creator open 0.20 | |
| 09-22 14:32 | open-snipe | UK Autumn Budget 2026: will 0% VAT on home electricity be extended past Ma | NO 17 | open +0 | virgin market: cell [other|mid|<45d|sm] historically resolves YES 0.41 vs creator open 0.60 | |
| 09-22 14:32 | open-snipe | UK Autumn Budget 2026: will NICs be extended to rental, investment or pens | YES 8 | open -0 | virgin market: cell [other|lo|<45d|sm] historically resolves YES 0.29 vs creator open 0.07 | |
| 09-22 14:32 | open-snipe | UK Autumn Budget 2026: will employer NICs be cut or the secondary threshol | YES 7 | open -0 | virgin market: cell [other|lo|<45d|sm] historically resolves YES 0.29 vs creator open 0.15 | |
| 09-22 14:32 | open-snipe | UK Autumn Budget 2026: will the pension tax-free lump sum be cut or capped | YES 8 | open +0 | virgin market: cell [other|lo|<45d|sm] historically resolves YES 0.29 vs creator open 0.12 | |
| 09-22 14:32 | open-snipe | UK Autumn Budget 2026: will an annual wealth tax be announced? | YES 8 | open -0 | virgin market: cell [other|lo|<45d|sm] historically resolves YES 0.29 vs creator open 0.10 | |
| 09-22 14:32 | open-snipe | UK Autumn Budget 2026: will income tax rates, employee NICs and VAT rates | NO 10 | open +0 | virgin market: cell [other|hi|<45d|sm] historically resolves YES 0.65 vs creator open 0.85 | |
| 09-22 14:32 | open-snipe | UK Autumn Budget 2026: will the CGT uplift on death be abolished or restri | YES 8 | open +0 | virgin market: cell [other|lo|<45d|sm] historically resolves YES 0.29 vs creator open 0.12 | |
| 09-22 14:32 | open-snipe | UK Autumn Budget 2026: will CGT rates be fully aligned with income tax rat | YES 8 | open +0 | virgin market: cell [other|lo|<45d|sm] historically resolves YES 0.29 vs creator open 0.10 | |
| 09-22 14:32 | open-snipe | UK Autumn Budget 2026: will any main capital gains tax rate rise? | NO 16 | open +0 | virgin market: cell [other|mid|<45d|sm] historically resolves YES 0.41 vs creator open 0.58 | |
| 09-22 13:55 | codex-open | Who will win the 2026 League of Legends World Championship? ×4 answers | YES 144 | open -39 | luna-medium price-blind says 0.23 vs answer 0.06 (edge +0.17 >= 0.1): BLG is a genuine top contender and already qualified, but the 19-team base rate is only 5.3%, several LCK/LPL teams appear comparably strong, and thin proxy-market prices support roughly a low-to-mid-20% chance. | |
| 09-22 12:24 | close-fav | Will the address for math.eg.rego.re have a balance of more than $25 befor | YES 25 | open -0 | favorite band 0.90-0.97 within 24h of close resolves YES 99% | |
| 09-22 09:38 | down-fade | YES 5 | open +0 | down-fade (blind, verify after): single 500-mana NO bet pushed 0.40->0.25; market not in cache | ||
| 09-22 08:42 | whale-fade | Will GitHub support SHA256 Git repositories in 2026? | NO 44 | open -0 | fade: single 50-mana YES bet pushed 0.23->0.52; big YES aggression is overconfident on average | |
| 09-22 08:38 | whale-fade | Will Hakeem Jeffries be Speaker following the 2026 Election? | NO 37 | open -0 | fade: single 350-mana YES bet pushed 0.65->0.80; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
Showing the newest 28 of 148 trades (221 bets); each module page carries its whole book.
Last scan 2026-08-21T20:02:05Z over 849 Polymarket, 572 Kalshi, 590 PredictIt, 30 Futuur, 0 Metaculus vs 7320 open Manifold binaries.
4 new candidate(s) awaiting rule-by-rule verification.