The mirror of whale‑fade: a single bet that shoves a binary market down 0.15+ is on average overconfident, and this module buys 25 YES against it on the same reaction race. Measured +6.98/event in the 2026 era (n=753, CI [+2.97, +11.19]) on the resolution replay; its own book so the number stays visible.
No decisions traced by this version.
| utc | version | market | bet | result | why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-08 02:35 | v83 | Will YES have more holders than NO? | YES 18 | settled +22 | down-fade: single 647-mana NO bet pushed 0.80->0.43; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-07 18:27 | v83 | Will Quarterly Capex Spend among AI Hyperscalers decrease before 2027? | YES 0 | unfilled | down-fade: single 100-mana NO bet pushed 0.32->0.14; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-07 11:53 | v83 | If Democrats win the House in the 2026 midterms, will they also win the Senate? | YES 0 | unfilled | down-fade: single 50-mana NO bet pushed 0.58->0.35; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-07 07:27 | v83 | Will ASM KMP zirconium metal production for June 2026 exceed 20 t? | YES 18 | open -6 | down-fade: single 100-mana NO bet pushed 0.53->0.21; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-07 07:27 | v83 | Will ASM KMP zirconium metal production for June 2026 exceed 75 t? | YES 18 | open -6 | down-fade: single 100-mana NO bet pushed 0.46->0.19; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-07 07:27 | v83 | Will ASM KMP zirconium metal production for June 2026 exceed 200 t? | YES 0 | unfilled | down-fade: single 100-mana NO bet pushed 0.38->0.16; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-07 00:30 | v83 | Will Grok 4.7 be released on 9/11? | YES 0 | unfilled | down-fade: single 100-mana NO bet pushed 0.39->0.16; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-06 23:40 | v83 | UPn9PAUuCq | YES 18 | open -11 | down-fade (blind, verify after): single 850-mana NO bet pushed 0.50->0.23; market not in cache |
| 09-06 22:41 | v83 | Will the 2026 Georgia Senate race go to a runoff? | YES 18 | open -3 | down-fade: single 250-mana NO bet pushed 0.40->0.14; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-06 19:11 | v83 | Will the CDC report twice as many measles cases in 2026 as 2025? | YES 0 | unfilled | down-fade: single 139-mana NO bet pushed 0.77->0.29; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-06 18:38 | v83 | UQhs5nCnRn | YES 18 | open +4 | down-fade (blind, verify after): single 100-mana NO bet pushed 0.50->0.20; market not in cache |
| 09-06 15:52 | v83 | The Republicans will be the next party to use the Nuclear Option for cloture 🐘⚖️🫏 | YES 28 | settled +10 | down-fade: single 50-mana NO bet pushed 0.92->0.68; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-06 04:51 | v83 | Will Syrah Vidalia 6-month AAM production exceed 9000 t for the period ending June 2026? | YES 0 | unfilled | down-fade: single 96-mana NO bet pushed 0.49->0.20; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-06 04:51 | v83 | Will Syrah Vidalia 6-month AAM production exceed 5500 t for the period ending June 2026? | YES 0 | unfilled | down-fade: single 94-mana NO bet pushed 0.48->0.20; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-06 04:51 | v83 | Will Syrah Vidalia 6-month AAM production exceed 3000 t for the period ending June 2026? | YES 0 | unfilled | down-fade: single 110-mana NO bet pushed 0.57->0.20; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-06 02:46 | v83 | Will it be possible for me to travel from San Francisco to Lighthaven in a Waymo in 2026? | YES 0 | unfilled | down-fade: single 50-mana NO bet pushed 0.45->0.28; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-06 02:32 | v83 | Will Grok 4.7 be released on 9/11? | YES 0 | unfilled | down-fade: single 50-mana NO bet pushed 0.50->0.31; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-06 01:09 | v83 | alsNwerIPXCb3y6ewfzy | YES 28 | open +4 | down-fade (blind, verify after): single 693-mana NO bet pushed 0.36->0.20; market not in cache |
| 09-05 16:13 | v83 | Will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved by an amateur? | YES 28 | open +5 | down-fade: single 250-mana NO bet pushed 0.60->0.40; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-05 14:58 | v83 | Will there be a verified AI-assisted solution to one of the Millennium Prize problems by the end of 2026? | YES 0 | unfilled | down-fade: single 50-mana NO bet pushed 0.48->0.29; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-05 14:19 | v83 | Will a millennium problem be solved in 2026? | YES 0 | unfilled | down-fade: single 100-mana NO bet pushed 0.69->0.26; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-05 13:06 | v83 | AI solves Millennium Prize Problem in September 2026? | YES 0 | unfilled | down-fade: single 50-mana NO bet pushed 0.49->0.30; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-05 11:34 | v83 | 5pdqCu6tIA | YES 0 | unfilled | down-fade (blind, verify after): single 50-mana NO bet pushed 0.96->0.75; market not in cache |
| 09-05 10:50 | v83 | Will some Millennium Prize Prize Problem be solved in 2026? | YES 0 | unfilled | down-fade: single 50-mana NO bet pushed 0.47->0.29; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-05 09:03 | v83 | Will Fermat's last theorem proof be completely formalized in Lean in 2026? | YES 100 | cancelled | down-fade: single 100-mana NO bet pushed 0.98->0.44; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-05 07:59 | v83 | Will there be a verified AI-assisted solution to one of the Millennium Prize problems by the end of 2026? | YES 28 | open +106 | down-fade: single 68-mana NO bet pushed 0.36->0.20; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-05 06:05 | v83 | zOttgUl8u5 | YES 18 | open -11 | down-fade (blind, verify after): single 100-mana NO bet pushed 0.48->0.19; market not in cache |
| 09-05 04:31 | v83 | COAq1BhRL112CivF01Qt | YES 0 | unfilled | down-fade (blind, verify after): single 100-mana NO bet pushed 0.39->0.22; market not in cache |
| 09-05 03:34 | v83 | yAA259LCdu | YES 18 | open -8 | down-fade (blind, verify after): single 2000-mana NO bet pushed 0.50->0.10; market not in cache |
| 09-05 02:46 | v83 | Elections in Ukraine called before 2027? | YES 28 | open +17 | down-fade: single 116-mana NO bet pushed 0.33->0.08; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-05 02:09 | v83 | Will Levent Alpöge's S⁶ complex-structure paper be posted to arXiv by October 15, 2026? | YES 100 | open +20 | down-fade: single 200-mana NO bet pushed 0.58->0.10; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-05 01:48 | v83 | Will Republicans maintain control of the US Senate following the 2026 midterm elections? | YES 0 | unfilled | down-fade: single 79-mana NO bet pushed 0.47->0.22; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-04 23:59 | v83 | AI solves Millennium Prize Problem in September 2026? | YES 28 | settled +192 | down-fade: single 130-mana NO bet pushed 0.34->0.12; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-04 14:14 | v83 | Will Shri Droupadi Murmu continue to be the President of India in 2026? | YES 18 | open -0 | down-fade: single 50-mana NO bet pushed 0.50->0.20; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-04 12:09 | v83 | Will Nigel Farage face a second Clacton byelection in 2026? | YES 0 | unfilled | down-fade: single 250-mana NO bet pushed 0.80->0.50; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-04 08:44 | v83 | Will Lindsay Clancy be convicted of murder of her 3 children? | YES 28 | open -7 | down-fade: single 900-mana NO bet pushed 0.48->0.28; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-04 07:06 | v83 | Will French people with enterprise gpt access be able to access Astra / GPT-6 before the 7th of September 00:0 | YES 100 | settled +292 | down-fade: single 129-mana NO bet pushed 0.74->0.22; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-04 06:09 | v83 | MLB: Will the Chicago White Sox sweep the Minnesota Twins OR will the 3-game series total 27 or more runs? | YES 28 | settled -28 | down-fade: single 80-mana NO bet pushed 0.45->0.22; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-04 05:04 | v83 | UK government approval among women falls below 5% this year (repost from last year)? | YES 100 | open +21 | down-fade: single 215-mana NO bet pushed 0.52->0.10; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-04 02:53 | v83 | 🇺🇸 Will the Fed raise interest rates in September 2026? | YES 18 | settled +90 | down-fade: single 250-mana NO bet pushed 0.42->0.16; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-04 01:53 | v83 | uX3DY7VcFyBf2oWlYyrM | YES 0 | unfilled | down-fade (blind, verify after): single 100-mana NO bet pushed 0.40->0.15; market not in cache |
| 09-04 00:07 | v83 | Will Bentham's Bulldog be Catholic end of 2026? | YES 18 | open -2 | down-fade: single 150-mana NO bet pushed 0.39->0.12; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-03 20:21 | v83 | Will the winner of the 2026 Vuelta a España be Roglic or Pogacar? | YES 28 | settled -28 | down-fade: single 450-mana NO bet pushed 0.51->0.35; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-03 19:42 | v83 | Will OpenAI Astra beat Opus 5 on Artificial Analysis | YES 100 | settled -100 | down-fade: single 150-mana NO bet pushed 0.94->0.25; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-03 19:41 | v83 | Openai Astra publically available before September 7th 2026 | YES 18 | settled +11 | down-fade: single 350-mana NO bet pushed 0.79->0.52; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-03 19:12 | v83 | Above human scores on ARC-AGI-3 in 2026? | YES 18 | settled +13 | down-fade: single 500-mana NO bet pushed 0.86->0.55; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-03 19:11 | v83 | Will OpenAI Astra beat the next version of Fable (after 5) on Artificial Analysis | YES 18 | settled -18 | down-fade: single 50-mana NO bet pushed 0.75->0.46; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-03 19:09 | v83 | Will a military conflict break out between Russia and Kazakhstan in the next five years? | YES 0 | unfilled | down-fade: single 120-mana NO bet pushed 0.33->0.16; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-03 18:11 | v83 | Will Astra release today? | YES 100 | settled +66 | down-fade: single 8000-mana NO bet pushed 0.89->0.48; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-03 17:47 | v83 | Will the official high at SAN reach 85.0°F or higher on any day during Labor Day Weekend? (San Diego) | YES 0 | unfilled | down-fade: single 80-mana NO bet pushed 0.38->0.19; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-03 17:32 | v83 | NFL: Will Josh Jacobs record at least 930 rushing yards OR 14 rushing touchdowns in the 2026 NFL regular seaso | YES 0 | unfilled | down-fade: single 100-mana NO bet pushed 0.34->0.15; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-03 16:41 | v83 | Openai Astra publically available before September 7th 2026 | YES 18 | settled +11 | down-fade: single 500-mana NO bet pushed 0.96->0.67; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-03 15:57 | v83 | OpenAI ChatGPT Astra publicly available in September 2026? | YES 18 | settled +7 | down-fade: single 500-mana NO bet pushed 0.97->0.68; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-03 02:15 | v83 | 🇺🇸 Will the Fed raise interest rates in September 2026? | YES 0 | unfilled | down-fade: single 55-mana NO bet pushed 0.50->0.30; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-03 02:15 | v83 | NFL Week 1: Will the Los Angeles Rams beat the San Francisco 49ers by 4 or more points? | YES 0 | unfilled | down-fade: single 50-mana NO bet pushed 0.51->0.31; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-03 01:25 | v83 | qzAQ9p28Ih | YES 28 | open -13 | down-fade (blind, verify after): single 500-mana NO bet pushed 0.50->0.31; market not in cache |
| 09-02 23:25 | v83 | EPL: Draw No Bet: Will Manchester United FC beat Everton FC? | YES 18 | cancelled | down-fade: single 60-mana NO bet pushed 0.88->0.53; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-02 21:22 | v83 | Openai Astra publically available before September 7th 2026 | YES 28 | settled +17 | down-fade: single 273-mana NO bet pushed 0.85->0.69; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-02 19:35 | v83 | cZ6qsnNI2l | YES 0 | unfilled | down-fade (blind, verify after): single 62-mana NO bet pushed 0.37->0.21; market not in cache |
| 09-02 19:14 | v83 | Openai Astra publically available before September 7th 2026 | YES 18 | settled +11 | down-fade: single 50-mana NO bet pushed 0.87->0.56; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-02 18:51 | v83 | MLB: Will the Boston Red Sox sweep the Kansas City Royals OR will the 3-game series total 30 or more runs? | YES 0 | unfilled | down-fade: single 50-mana NO bet pushed 0.42->0.26; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-02 15:26 | v83 | Will GPT-6 be released before the end of October 2026? | YES 0 | unfilled | down-fade: single 50-mana NO bet pushed 0.33->0.17; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-02 15:21 | v83 | Will GPT-6 be called "Astra"? | YES 0 | unfilled | down-fade: single 50-mana NO bet pushed 0.60->0.37; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-02 15:11 | v83 | nU8zNAEhqZ | YES 18 | open -10 | down-fade (blind, verify after): single 2000-mana NO bet pushed 0.50->0.10; market not in cache |
| 09-02 14:55 | v83 | GPT-6 released in 2026? | YES 0 | unfilled | down-fade: single 250-mana NO bet pushed 0.74->0.59; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-02 12:47 | v83 | Will GPT-6 be called "Astra"? | YES 18 | settled +18 | down-fade: single 70-mana NO bet pushed 0.76->0.39; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-02 12:46 | v83 | Is OpenAI's upcoming "Astra" model going to be called GPT-6? | YES 28 | settled -28 | down-fade: single 1000-mana NO bet pushed 0.35->0.15; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-02 12:30 | v83 | Fed rate hike in 2026? | YES 0 | unfilled | down-fade: single 50-mana NO bet pushed 0.62->0.42; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-02 07:47 | v83 | sn2tt9lpOg | YES 0 | unfilled | down-fade (blind, verify after): single 200-mana NO bet pushed 0.60->0.11; market not in cache |
| 09-02 03:26 | v83 | Will Joby Aviation start operating any aircraft commercially before the end of 2026? | YES 18 | open -1 | down-fade: single 1800-mana NO bet pushed 0.42->0.15; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-02 03:00 | v83 | roon (@tszzl) leaves OpenAI before July 2027? | YES 18 | open +5 | down-fade: single 100-mana NO bet pushed 0.62->0.24; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-01 23:29 | v83 | Will iron-air battery additions (15m trailing, 3m lag) exceed 0.8 GWh by Sep 2026? | YES 0 | unfilled | down-fade: single 62-mana NO bet pushed 0.55->0.30; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-01 15:49 | v83 | dd9NgS55Qz | YES 18 | open +3 | down-fade (blind, verify after): single 50-mana NO bet pushed 0.76->0.47; market not in cache |
| 09-01 15:02 | v83 | Will the November 2026 U.S. unemployment rate be at least 4.5%? | YES 0 | unfilled | down-fade: single 110-mana NO bet pushed 0.32->0.14; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-01 14:41 | v83 | QKsZI1M2fWEUpqmRdyBi | YES 0 | unfilled | down-fade (blind, verify after): single 300-mana NO bet pushed 0.22->0.05; market not in cache |
| 09-01 13:19 | v83 | Will a playable build of Grand Theft Auto VI leak before November 1, 2026? | YES 0 | unfilled | down-fade: single 50-mana NO bet pushed 0.53->0.32; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
76 trades, 1,332 staked, realised +559, open +807 if held / +107 if sold, 35 unfilled.
Judge this module at resolution, like the replay that justified it; the race column says whether the entry price was still worth having. Traces are diagnostic and rotate; the trading journal is separate. Built 2026-09-22 18:01Z.