park-nolive
-6 / -6Parks idle mana as NO in stale mid-priced books instead of leaving it in cash.
0bets by entry price1- bets
- 6
- staked
- 150
- settled
- 4/5 won
- realised
- -2
- open (1) sold
- -4
- open (1) held
- -4
- return sold
- -4%
- return held
- -4%
Own trades and own declines only; each module's page has the reasoning.
Parks idle mana as NO in stale mid-priced books instead of leaving it in cash.
0bets by entry price1A single 100+ mana YES bet that pushes a mid-life market up 5+ points is overconfident on average; fades it.
0bets by entry price1A price-blind language-model estimate on each new market; bets only when it disagrees with the price by more than the configured edge.
0bets by entry price1Collects both close-window bands: favourites at 0.90-0.97 and longshots at 0.03-0.15 inside 24h of close. Its bets are labelled close-fav / close-long.
enabled; this version does not report per-sweep counts
Exit policy for codex-open positions.
disabled in this version's config
Quotes both sides of busy event markets and collects the spread.
disabled in this version's config
Independent multiple-choice answers listed at creation resolve YES far less often than their 0.50 opens imply.
enabled; this version does not report per-sweep counts
The catch-all 'Other' answer in winner-take-all markets is overpriced above 0.20; buys NO toward 0.12.
enabled; this version does not report per-sweep counts
Buys the lowest bucket of a new numeric or date market.
enabled; this version does not report per-sweep counts
Bets a brand-new untraded market from its opening price toward the historical resolution rate of its cell (type x price x horizon x ante).
enabled; this version does not report per-sweep counts
When a real-money twin on Kalshi or Polymarket jumps 10+ points, carries the move onto the Manifold mirror.
enabled; this version does not report per-sweep counts
| when | module | market | bet | 0 · price · 1 | result | why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-24 12:39 | codex-open | Best IVF Centre in Bangkok | YES 0 | cancelled | luna-medium price-blind says 0.93 vs market 0.50 (edge +0.43 >= 0.3): Multiple Bangkok fertility providers already publish pages explicitly titled or claiming to identify the “Best IVF Centre in Bangkok,” including Pride IVF and Bangkok Fertility Center. However, the resolution rules define no objec | |
| 08-24 12:39 | whale-fade | Apple to release a foldable iPhone before 2027? | NO 25 | open -22 | fade: single 2500-mana YES bet pushed 0.73->0.90; big YES aggression is overconfident on average | |
| 08-24 12:39 | codex-open | AI solves Millennium Prize Problem in September 2026? | NO 75 | settled -75 | luna-medium price-blind says 0.01 vs market 0.39 (edge -0.38 >= 0.3): Clay currently lists six Millennium problems as unsolved, while the 2026 AI Index reports rapid progress to gold-medal IMO performance but says rigorous theorem proving remains difficult ([Clay Mathematics Institute](https://www.c | |
| 08-24 12:38 | park-no | Will Astra solve Elliot Glazer's prototype FrontierMath problem? | NO 25 | settled -25 | parking idle float: book stale 67% of life at 75% elapsed, price 0.22 leans NO (+6-8% both eras) | |
| 08-24 12:38 | park-no | Seb Krier gets fired OR promoted at Google DeepMind before September? | NO 25 | settled +4 | parking idle float: book stale 39% of life at 78% elapsed, price 0.13 leans NO (+6-8% both eras) | |
| 08-24 12:38 | park-no | Will @tooawful on telegram be found dead before sept? | NO 25 | open -4 | parking idle float: book stale 33% of life at 82% elapsed, price 0.37 leans NO (+6-8% both eras) | |
| 08-24 12:38 | park-no | Will ICPs price reach $3 before Sept 1 2026 | NO 25 | settled +16 | parking idle float: book stale 30% of life at 83% elapsed, price 0.39 leans NO (+6-8% both eras) | |
| 08-24 12:38 | park-no | US charges Strait of Hormuz transit fee by end of August? | NO 25 | settled +2 | parking idle float: book stale 26% of life at 85% elapsed, price 0.06 leans NO (+6-8% both eras) | |
| 08-24 12:38 | park-no | If I get a tetanus shot for my scrape will I regret it? | NO 25 | settled +2 | parking idle float: book stale 36% of life at 68% elapsed, price 0.08 leans NO (+6-8% both eras) |
| version | mana | status · window | bets | staked | realised | open held | open sold | per day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| v89 | real | live in prod 2026-09-19 16:42Z → running | 221 | 5,709 | +338 | +386 | -116 | +242.0 |
| v88 | real | retired, book still settling 2026-09-03 13:36Z → 2026-09-19 16:42Z | 1117 | 30,685 | +928 | +4016 | +1235 | +306.5 |
| v81 | real | retired, book still settling 2026-08-30 09:55Z → 2026-09-03 13:36Z | 393 | 13,334 | +1646 | +760 | +5 | +579.2 |
| v80 | real | retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 19:42Z → 2026-08-30 09:55Z | 26 | 595 | +7 | -1 | -6 | +11.3 |
| v78 | real | retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 17:15Z → 2026-08-29 19:28Z | 11 | 411 | +25 | -47 | -71 | -242.6 |
| v77 | real | retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 16:03Z → 2026-08-29 17:15Z | 5 | 247 | -18 | -32 | -52 | -985.7 |
| v77 | real | retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 16:03Z → 2026-08-29 17:15Z | 5 | 247 | -18 | -32 | -52 | -985.7 |
| v76 | real | retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 15:27Z → 2026-08-29 16:02Z | 10 | 298 | +320 | +0 | +0 | +13115.0 |
| v75 | real | retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 13:01Z → 2026-08-29 15:27Z | 13 | 218 | +149 | +0 | +0 | +1479.0 |
| v74 | real | retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 10:35Z → 2026-08-29 13:01Z | 12 | 128 | +23 | -14 | -22 | +89.3 |
| v73 | real | retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 10:24Z → 2026-08-29 10:35Z | 10 | 250 | +3 | +2 | +1 | +616.5 |
| v72 | real | retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 10:12Z → 2026-08-29 10:24Z | 5 | 125 | +2 | +1 | +1 | +343.1 |
| v71 | real | retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 10:03Z → 2026-08-29 10:12Z | 5 | 125 | +2 | +2 | +2 | +553.2 |
| v70 | real | retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 06:12Z → 2026-08-29 10:03Z | 9 | 150 | -9 | +8 | +8 | -3.0 |
| v67 | real | retired, book still settling 2026-08-28 07:38Z → 2026-08-29 06:12Z | 27 | 475 | -108 | +40 | +21 | -72.3 |
| v66 | real | retired, book still settling 2026-08-28 06:43Z → 2026-08-28 07:38Z | 2 | 50 | +1 | +0 | -0 | +36.5 |
| v65 | real | retired, book still settling 2026-08-27 19:48Z → 2026-08-28 06:43Z | 18 | 253 | +340 | +3 | -3 | +753.4 |
| v64 | real | retired, book still settling 2026-08-27 10:06Z → 2026-08-27 19:48Z | 9 | 227 | +36 | -64 | -72 | -69.3 |
| v63 | real | retired, book still settling 2026-08-27 08:12Z → 2026-08-27 10:06Z | 3 | 75 | +5 | -3 | -5 | +36.5 |
| v62 | real | retired, book still settling 2026-08-27 07:18Z → 2026-08-27 08:12Z | 3 | 69 | +5 | +3 | +2 | +224.9 |
| v89-twin | paper | evaluating 2026-09-19 16:43Z → running | 196 | 3,632 | +191 | +1131 | +520 | +442.2 |
| codex-paper | paper | retired: window-complete 2026-08-22 19:49Z → 2026-08-22 19:49Z | 1 | 40 | +0 | +13 | +4 | - |
| v88-twin | paper | retired: prod-moved 2026-09-03 16:10Z → 2026-09-19 12:21Z | 1412 | 26,687 | +1027 | +5778 | +2442 | +429.6 |
| v87 | paper | retired: superseded-same-day 2026-09-03 00:02Z → 2026-09-03 15:21Z | 54 | 952 | -375 | +95 | -2 | -438.5 |
| v86 | paper | retired: window-complete 2026-09-02 13:27Z → 2026-09-09 15:32Z | 539 | 13,928 | +1183 | +3446 | +1059 | +653.2 |
| v85 | paper | retired: superseded-same-day 2026-09-02 10:16Z → 2026-09-02 13:08Z | 21 | 849 | +775 | +114 | -7 | +7461.3 |
| v84 | paper | retired: superseded-same-day 2026-09-02 02:00Z → 2026-09-02 08:22Z | 46 | 350 | -40 | +42 | +18 | +5.7 |
| v83 | paper | retired: window-complete 2026-09-01 10:09Z → 2026-09-08 03:32Z | 646 | 11,605 | +727 | +2860 | +835 | +533.5 |
| v82 | paper | retired: window-complete 2026-08-30 22:07Z → 2026-09-01 09:44Z | 177 | 3,963 | +247 | +167 | -2 | +279.2 |
| v80-twin | paper | retired: prod-moved 2026-08-29 22:05Z → 2026-08-30 07:42Z | 28 | 650 | +61 | +43 | +20 | +259.9 |
| v77-twin | paper | retired: prod-moved 2026-08-29 16:04Z → 2026-08-29 17:52Z | 15 | 400 | -116 | +170 | +54 | +723.9 |
| v75-twin | paper | retired: prod-moved 2026-08-29 13:31Z → 2026-08-29 15:38Z | 16 | 474 | -200 | +35 | -4 | -1880.5 |
| v72-twin | paper | retired: prod-moved 2026-08-29 10:14Z → 2026-08-29 12:19Z | 11 | 250 | +26 | +20 | +5 | +532.6 |
| v70-twin | paper | retired: prod-moved 2026-08-29 08:17Z → 2026-08-29 08:29Z | 6 | 140 | +2 | +8 | +8 | +1241.1 |
| v68 | paper | retired: window-complete 2026-08-28 13:52Z → 2026-08-30 18:48Z | 73 | 2,211 | +410 | +330 | +249 | +335.1 |
| v67-twin | paper | retired: prod-moved 2026-08-28 08:16Z → 2026-08-29 07:19Z | 32 | 792 | +239 | +112 | +80 | +365.9 |
| v65-twin | paper | retired: prod-moved 2026-08-27 20:15Z → 2026-08-28 02:27Z | 17 | 238 | -57 | +16 | +10 | -159.6 |
| v64-twin | paper | retired: prod-moved 2026-08-27 10:07Z → 2026-08-27 20:07Z | 13 | 334 | +34 | -51 | -58 | -41.4 |
| v63-twin | paper | retired: prod-moved 2026-08-27 08:14Z → 2026-08-27 08:18Z | 5 | 347 | +3 | +22 | +5 | +11001.8 |
| v62-twin | paper | retired: prod-moved 2026-08-27 07:20Z → 2026-08-27 07:48Z | 6 | 310 | +3 | +24 | +13 | +1336.9 |
| v60-twin | paper | retired: prod-moved 2026-08-27 10:06Z → 2026-08-27 10:06Z | 2 | 50 | +3 | +0 | +0 | +109728.0 |
| v59-twin | paper | retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 20:46Z → 2026-08-26 20:46Z | 3 | 84 | +0 | +11 | +1 | +460637.2 |
| v58-twin | paper | retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 12:59Z → 2026-08-26 19:49Z | 13 | 391 | -67 | +13 | -11 | -190.2 |
| v57-twin | paper | retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 12:24Z → 2026-08-26 12:51Z | 2 | 8 | +0 | +12 | +4 | +626.0 |
| v56-twin | paper | retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 12:01Z → 2026-08-26 12:10Z | 3 | 110 | +0 | +75 | +49 | +11809.4 |
| v55-twin | paper | retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 11:41Z → 2026-08-26 11:59Z | 5 | 101 | +1 | +78 | +55 | +6374.5 |
| v53-twin | paper | retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 10:58Z → 2026-08-26 11:04Z | 4 | 70 | +22 | +5 | -2 | +6307.7 |
| v50-twin | paper | retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 10:03Z → 2026-08-26 10:33Z | 5 | 121 | +34 | +28 | +21 | +2885.8 |
| v45 | paper | retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 20:32Z → 2026-08-25 21:04Z | 8 | 605 | -86 | +8 | -41 | -3429.4 |
| v44 | paper | retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 20:28Z → 2026-08-25 20:31Z | 7 | 365 | +15 | -6 | -32 | +5636.0 |
| v41 | paper | retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 14:46Z → 2026-08-25 17:58Z | 9 | 656 | -481 | +3 | -5 | -3573.8 |
| v39 | paper | retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 12:44Z → 2026-08-25 13:31Z | 1 | 100 | -100 | +0 | +0 | -3092.3 |
| v38 | paper | retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 12:18Z → 2026-08-25 12:41Z | 3 | 212 | -12 | +27 | +15 | +973.2 |
| v37 | paper | retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 09:45Z → 2026-08-25 09:45Z | 1 | 28 | +0 | +14 | +12 | +37215.2 |
| v35 | paper | retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 08:50Z → 2026-08-25 08:59Z | 6 | 184 | +57 | +29 | +23 | +14065.5 |
| v34 | paper | retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 08:46Z → 2026-08-25 08:47Z | 1 | 131 | +57 | +0 | +0 | +258245.1 |
| v20 | paper | retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-24 13:39Z → 2026-08-24 14:34Z | 3 | 203 | -10 | +94 | +90 | +2187.4 |
| v16 | paper | retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-24 12:42Z → 2026-08-24 13:15Z | 15 | 375 | -96 | +4 | +0 | -4042.7 |
| v15 | paper | retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-24 12:38Z → 2026-08-24 12:39Z | 9 | 250 | -77 | -26 | -26 | -111952.5 |
| v14 | paper | retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-24 12:35Z → 2026-08-24 12:36Z | 7 | 222 | -74 | -4 | -4 | -86088.4 |
| v13 | paper | retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-24 12:31Z → 2026-08-24 12:32Z | 8 | 227 | -71 | -4 | -4 | -87939.7 |
| v12 | paper | retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-24 12:16Z → 2026-08-24 12:17Z | 8 | 222 | -67 | -4 | -4 | -92033.7 |
| v11 | paper | retired: window-complete 2026-08-23 20:07Z → 2026-08-30 04:03Z | 359 | 10,830 | +1707 | +1482 | +487 | +503.8 |
| v10 | paper | retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-23 08:06Z → 2026-08-23 20:03Z | 30 | 907 | +216 | +257 | +189 | +951.2 |
| v9 | paper | retired: window-complete 2026-08-22 20:03Z → 2026-08-29 00:28Z | 327 | 7,435 | +2028 | +972 | +410 | +485.1 |
| v8 | paper | retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-22 17:52Z → 2026-08-22 19:52Z | 16 | 400 | +76 | +8 | +3 | +1010.6 |
| v7 | paper | retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-22 08:16Z → 2026-08-22 17:06Z | 6 | 120 | +96 | +95 | +33 | +518.9 |