trader-agent v81

Modules of v81

Own trades and own declines only; each module's page has the reasoning.

codex-open

+1,947 / +2,343

A price-blind language-model estimate on each new market; bets only when it disagrees with the price by more than the configured edge.

0bets by entry price1

bets: 175
staked: 7,274
settled: 36/48 won
realised: +1581
open (109) sold: +366
open (109) held: +762
return sold: +27%
return held: +32%

close-long

+180 / +182

Longshots at 0.03-0.15 inside 24h of close resolve NO about 95% of the time.

0bets by entry price1

bets: 69
staked: 1,725
settled: 43/48 won
realised: +177
open (21) sold: +4
open (21) held: +5
return sold: +10%
return held: +11%

open-snipe

+137 / +148

Bets a brand-new untraded market from its opening price toward the historical resolution rate of its cell (type x price x horizon x ante).

0bets by entry price1

bets: 24
staked: 588
settled: 3/9 won
realised: +41
open (13) sold: +97
open (13) held: +107
return sold: +23%
return held: +25%

close-fav

+135 / +135

Favourites at 0.90-0.97 inside 24h of close resolve YES about 99% of the time.

0bets by entry price1

bets: 14
staked: 332
settled: 10/13 won
realised: +135
open (1) sold: +0
open (1) held: +0
return sold: +41%
return held: +41%

mc-indep

+57 / +62

Independent multiple-choice answers listed at creation resolve YES far less often than their 0.50 opens imply.

0bets by entry price1

bets: 17
staked: 235
settled: 2/4 won
realised: -3
open (12) sold: +60
open (12) held: +66
return sold: +24%
return held: +26%

mc-other

+5 / +6

The catch-all 'Other' answer in winner-take-all markets is overpriced above 0.20; buys NO toward 0.12.

0bets by entry price1

bets: 2
staked: 24
settled: none settled yet
realised: +0
open (2) sold: +5
open (2) held: +6
return sold: +22%
return held: +23%

down-fade

-273 / -183

0bets by entry price1

bets: 41
staked: 788
settled: 7/13 won
realised: +65
open (24) sold: -338
open (24) held: -249
return sold: -35%
return held: -23%

whale-fade

-538 / -287

A single 100+ mana YES bet that pushes a mid-life market up 5+ points is overconfident on average; fades it.

0bets by entry price1

bets: 51
staked: 2,368
settled: 3/14 won
realised: -349
open (34) sold: -189
open (34) held: +62
return sold: -23%
return held: -12%

Trades of v81

when	module	market	bet	result	why
09-03 13:15	codex-open	Bundesliga — 2026-27 Matchday 2 Fixtures	NO 37	settled +18	luna-medium price-blind says 0.07 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.43 >= 0.3): Historical Bundesliga home-win rate is 13/61 (21.3%), but Schalke have no win in their last 21 Bundesliga meetings with Bayern, Bayern won Matchday 1 while Schalke lost, and market odds imply roughly 6–8% (a proxy, not the official resolver); Bayern’s DFB-Pokal match at Osnabrück on 2 September is the main scheduled event before the 5 September fixture, which resolves on the Bundesliga official Matchday 2 results page.
09-03 13:09	whale-fade		NO 85	open -15	fade (blind, verify after): single 300-mana YES bet pushed 0.32->0.50; market not in cache
09-03 13:05	whale-fade	SOAI#3: Open-ended agents make a meaningful scientific discovery end-to-en	NO 85	open +36	fade: single 500-mana YES bet pushed 0.50->0.69; big YES aggression is overconfident on average
09-03 12:34	close-long	Will the August 2026 U.S. unemployment rate be at least 4.5%?	NO 25	open +0	longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
09-03 12:34	close-long	Will August 2026 U.S. nonfarm payroll employment increase by at least 150,	NO 25	open +0	longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
09-03 12:16	whale-fade	Will GPT6 release before GTA6?	NO 22	settled -20	fade: single 1000-mana YES bet pushed 0.78->0.89; big YES aggression is overconfident on average
09-03 06:21	down-fade	Will a soccer final between Spain and Argentina be repeated before 2027?	YES 15	open -1	down-fade: single 50-mana NO bet pushed 0.59->0.35; big NO aggression is overconfident on average
09-03 05:36	codex-open	Which team will win the 2026 Global Chess League?	YES 19	settled -19	luna-medium price-blind says 0.28 vs answer 0.13 (edge +0.15 >= 0.1): Base rate: Triveni won 2 of 3 completed editions (66.7%), but Alpine’s defending title plus Carlsen’s return materially reduce that prior; the rules resolve to the officially announced champion despite a minor date/format ambiguity, the event runs September 5–13 before the December 31 close, and the exact resolver is globalchessleague.com, with no matching-rule market witness found.
09-03 03:55	codex-open	sat score ×2 answers	NO 14	open -9	luna-medium price-blind says 0.08 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.42 >= 0.3): Base rate: 1580 is 99+ percentile, implying roughly 0.5% of broad SAT takers reach it ([College Board](https://research.collegeboard.org/reports/sat-suite/understanding-scores/sat)); given English mocks of 740–760, reaching the required near-perfect combined score is possible but unlikely, and the 9/12 SAT score is scheduled for release on 9/25 before the 10/9 close ([score schedule](https://satsuite.collegeboard.org/scores/score-release-dates)), with the official College Board score report as resolver and no matching witness markets identified.
09-03 03:45	codex-open	Will Luffy defeat Imu in the official One Piece manga before December 31,	NO 33	open +5	luna-medium price-blind says 0.22 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.28 >= 0.2): Base rate: Luffy defeats the primary antagonist in roughly 7 of 10 completed major arcs (70%), but only about 15–16 official chapter slots remain before the deadline; the rules are mostly clear though group-credit ambiguity pulls modestly toward 0.5, current Imu hype is weaker than the pacing evidence, the scheduled weekly releases through December are the key calendar events, VIZ currently lists chapter 1191 and the exact resolver is VIZ/Manga Plus (https://www.viz.com/shonenjump/chapters/one-piece; https://mangaplus.shueisha.co.jp/titles/100020), while the purported four-year Oda statement is not officially substantiated (https://odasclock.com/articles/oda-four-more-years-rumor), so I estimate only about 22%.
09-03 02:37	codex-open	OpenAI Astra's score on Artificial Analysis ×4 answers	YES 36	settled +28	luna-medium price-blind says 0.57 vs answer 0.17 (edge +0.40 >= 0.1): Base rate: 0 of 7 recent frontier scores exceeded 65; Astra’s cyber results are not a direct proxy for AAII, the rules extend grading through Dec 31 if needed, no relevant event is scheduled before Sep 10, and the exact resolver is Artificial Analysis’s official leaderboard (https://artificialanalysis.ai/leaderboards/models/), leaving a near-threshold estimate slightly YES-leaning.
09-03 02:30	codex-open	What will we name our second kid? ×2 answers	YES 200	open	luna-medium price-blind says 0.40 vs answer 0.17 (edge +0.23 >= 0.1): Base rate: a single leading name among a typical five-name shortlist wins about 20%; Lewis is explicitly seeded as a leading option, but the rules provide no evidence it is locked in and no scheduled event materially changes the odds.
09-03 02:15	down-fade	🇺🇸 Will the Fed raise interest rates in September 2026?	YES 8	settled +3	down-fade: single 55-mana NO bet pushed 0.50->0.30; big NO aggression is overconfident on average
09-03 02:15	down-fade	NFL Week 1: Will the Los Angeles Rams beat the San Francisco 49ers by 4 or	YES 7	settled +6	down-fade: single 50-mana NO bet pushed 0.51->0.31; big NO aggression is overconfident on average
09-03 02:01	codex-open	OpenAI Astra Prop Bets	NO 13	open -13	luna-medium price-blind says 0.10 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.40 >= 0.3): Astra’s unusually strong capability claims increase the odds, but the historical rate of OpenAI explicitly calling a newly released model AGI is near zero and the release timing and claim standard remain ambiguous.
09-03 01:25	codex-open	Vilenkin's tunneling wave function becomes well-defined in his life time?	NO 100	open +17	luna-medium price-blind says 0.04 vs market 0.31 (edge -0.27 >= 0.2): The strict YES condition has a roughly 0% historical hit rate so far, while Vilenkin’s age-77 mortality baseline is 4.12% annually and current literature still reports unresolved foundational problems, yielding a low but nonzero chance of a breakthrough and consensus before death.
09-03 01:25	down-fade		YES 28	open -14	down-fade (blind, verify after): single 500-mana NO bet pushed 0.50->0.31; market not in cache
09-03 01:19	codex-open	Next Bond	YES 56	open +25	luna-medium price-blind says 0.92 vs market 0.50 (edge +0.42 >= 0.2): Historical base rate is 6 new Bonds across 25 films (24%), but conditional on an active production with screen tests, I estimate a 92% chance of an official cast announcement by December 31, 2028; the September 2026 screen tests and Denis Villeneuve’s scheduled December 18, 2026 Dune release are relevant calendar events, while the exact resolver is Amazon MGM/Eon or Variety, The Hollywood Reporter, or Deadline, and current shortlist reports are only imperfect proxies with no matching-witness market verified.
09-02 23:25	down-fade	EPL: Draw No Bet: Will Manchester United FC beat Everton FC?	YES 0	cancelled	down-fade: single 60-mana NO bet pushed 0.88->0.53; big NO aggression is overconfident on average
09-02 20:01	codex-open	Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2027?	NO 100	open +74	luna-medium price-blind says 0.12 vs market 0.70 (edge -0.58 >= 0.2): Tesla could scale rapidly if unsupervised autonomy and fleet production break through, but Waymo’s roughly 500,000-plus weekly rides, planned 1 million weekly pace, and large head start make a 2027 Tesla lead unlikely.
09-02 19:56	codex-open	Will the U.S. prime-age employment-population ratio be below 50.0% in Augu	NO 73	open +18	luna-medium price-blind says 0.00 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.50 >= 0.2): Base rate is 0 of 942 historical LNS12300060 observations below 50.0% (historical minimum 61.3%), versus 80.4% currently [FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12300060); the August 2029 BLS Employment Situation release is normally expected around September 7, after the August 31 close, and FRED is the exact resolver, with no matching witness market found.
09-02 19:43	codex-open	What Party will win the next US election?	NO 29	open +8	luna-medium price-blind says 0.01 vs answer 0.28 (edge -0.27 >= 0.1): Base rate: 0 of 51 U.S. presidential elections from 1824–2024 were won by a third-party candidate; under these rules the scheduled event is the November 7, 2028 election, resolved by the official Electoral College outcome, while current major-party market prices leave roughly 1% residual but use non-identical rules, so I estimate 1% ([NARA](https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/results), [USAGov](https://www.usa.gov/presidential-election-process), [Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-wins-2028-us-presidential-election)).
09-02 19:35	down-fade		YES 1	open -0	down-fade (blind, verify after): single 62-mana NO bet pushed 0.37->0.21; market not in cache
09-02 18:51	down-fade	MLB: Will the Boston Red Sox sweep the Kansas City Royals OR will the 3-ga	YES 1	settled -1	down-fade: single 50-mana NO bet pushed 0.42->0.26; big NO aggression is overconfident on average
09-02 18:38	codex-open	Will Kalshi respond to New Jersey's Supreme Court petition by November 15,	YES 40	open +11	luna-medium price-blind says 0.88 vs market 0.57 (edge +0.31 >= 0.2): Base rate: I estimate an 85% historical chance that a Supreme Court certiorari respondent files a brief or waiver within 30 days; Rule 15.3 permits extensions, but Kalshi faces a salient circuit split and has 44 days beyond the nominal deadline before November 15, with the September 28 opening conference and October 5/November 2 sessions providing scheduled Court activity; the exact resolver is the official [Flaherty v. KalshiEX docket](https://www.supremecourt.gov/search.aspx?filename=%2Fdocket%2Fdocketfiles%2Fhtml%2Fpublic%2F25a1465.html), and the current [Rule 15](https://www.supremecourt.gov/filingandrules/2026RulesoftheCourt_WEB.pdf) confirms that either a brief or express waiver counts, while no matching witness market was identified.
09-02 18:37	open-snipe	Will Kalshi respond to New Jersey's Supreme Court petition by November 15,	NO 17	open -11	virgin market: cell [politics\|hi\|>=45d\|sm] historically resolves YES 0.45 vs creator open 0.68
09-02 18:31	close-long	Did Something Happen with GLM-5.3 Flash?	NO 25	settled +1	longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
09-02 17:34	whale-fade	Will GPT6 release before GTA6?	NO 18	open -17	fade: single 100-mana YES bet pushed 0.61->0.83; big YES aggression is overconfident on average

Showing the newest 28 of 297 trades (393 bets); each module page carries its whole book.

The lineage

version	mana	status · window	bets	staked	realised	open held	open sold	per day
v89	real	live in prod 2026-09-19 16:42Z → running	221	5,709	+338	+386	-116	+242.0
v88	real	retired, book still settling 2026-09-03 13:36Z → 2026-09-19 16:42Z	1117	30,685	+928	+4016	+1235	+306.5
v81	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-30 09:55Z → 2026-09-03 13:36Z	393	13,334	+1646	+760	+5	+579.2
v80	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 19:42Z → 2026-08-30 09:55Z	26	595	+7	-1	-6	+11.3
v78	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 17:15Z → 2026-08-29 19:28Z	11	411	+25	-47	-71	-242.6
v77	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 16:03Z → 2026-08-29 17:15Z	5	247	-18	-32	-52	-985.7
v77	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 16:03Z → 2026-08-29 17:15Z	5	247	-18	-32	-52	-985.7
v76	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 15:27Z → 2026-08-29 16:02Z	10	298	+320	+0	+0	+13115.0
v75	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 13:01Z → 2026-08-29 15:27Z	13	218	+149	+0	+0	+1479.0
v74	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 10:35Z → 2026-08-29 13:01Z	12	128	+23	-14	-22	+89.3
v73	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 10:24Z → 2026-08-29 10:35Z	10	250	+3	+2	+1	+616.5
v72	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 10:12Z → 2026-08-29 10:24Z	5	125	+2	+1	+1	+343.1
v71	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 10:03Z → 2026-08-29 10:12Z	5	125	+2	+2	+2	+553.2
v70	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 06:12Z → 2026-08-29 10:03Z	9	150	-9	+8	+8	-3.0
v67	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-28 07:38Z → 2026-08-29 06:12Z	27	475	-108	+40	+21	-72.3
v66	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-28 06:43Z → 2026-08-28 07:38Z	2	50	+1	+0	-0	+36.5
v65	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-27 19:48Z → 2026-08-28 06:43Z	18	253	+340	+3	-3	+753.4
v64	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-27 10:06Z → 2026-08-27 19:48Z	9	227	+36	-64	-72	-69.3
v63	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-27 08:12Z → 2026-08-27 10:06Z	3	75	+5	-3	-5	+36.5
v62	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-27 07:18Z → 2026-08-27 08:12Z	3	69	+5	+3	+2	+224.9
v89-twin	paper	evaluating 2026-09-19 16:43Z → running	196	3,632	+191	+1131	+520	+442.2
codex-paper	paper	retired: window-complete 2026-08-22 19:49Z → 2026-08-22 19:49Z	1	40	+0	+13	+4	-
v88-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-09-03 16:10Z → 2026-09-19 12:21Z	1412	26,687	+1027	+5778	+2442	+429.6
v87	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-09-03 00:02Z → 2026-09-03 15:21Z	54	952	-375	+95	-2	-438.5
v86	paper	retired: window-complete 2026-09-02 13:27Z → 2026-09-09 15:32Z	539	13,928	+1183	+3446	+1059	+653.2
v85	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-09-02 10:16Z → 2026-09-02 13:08Z	21	849	+775	+114	-7	+7461.3
v84	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-09-02 02:00Z → 2026-09-02 08:22Z	46	350	-40	+42	+18	+5.7
v83	paper	retired: window-complete 2026-09-01 10:09Z → 2026-09-08 03:32Z	646	11,605	+727	+2860	+835	+533.5
v82	paper	retired: window-complete 2026-08-30 22:07Z → 2026-09-01 09:44Z	177	3,963	+247	+167	-2	+279.2
v80-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-29 22:05Z → 2026-08-30 07:42Z	28	650	+61	+43	+20	+259.9
v77-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-29 16:04Z → 2026-08-29 17:52Z	15	400	-116	+170	+54	+723.9
v75-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-29 13:31Z → 2026-08-29 15:38Z	16	474	-200	+35	-4	-1880.5
v72-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-29 10:14Z → 2026-08-29 12:19Z	11	250	+26	+20	+5	+532.6
v70-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-29 08:17Z → 2026-08-29 08:29Z	6	140	+2	+8	+8	+1241.1
v68	paper	retired: window-complete 2026-08-28 13:52Z → 2026-08-30 18:48Z	73	2,211	+410	+330	+249	+335.1
v67-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-28 08:16Z → 2026-08-29 07:19Z	32	792	+239	+112	+80	+365.9
v65-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-27 20:15Z → 2026-08-28 02:27Z	17	238	-57	+16	+10	-159.6
v64-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-27 10:07Z → 2026-08-27 20:07Z	13	334	+34	-51	-58	-41.4
v63-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-27 08:14Z → 2026-08-27 08:18Z	5	347	+3	+22	+5	+11001.8
v62-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-27 07:20Z → 2026-08-27 07:48Z	6	310	+3	+24	+13	+1336.9
v60-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-27 10:06Z → 2026-08-27 10:06Z	2	50	+3	+0	+0	+109728.0
v59-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 20:46Z → 2026-08-26 20:46Z	3	84	+0	+11	+1	+460637.2
v58-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 12:59Z → 2026-08-26 19:49Z	13	391	-67	+13	-11	-190.2
v57-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 12:24Z → 2026-08-26 12:51Z	2	8	+0	+12	+4	+626.0
v56-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 12:01Z → 2026-08-26 12:10Z	3	110	+0	+75	+49	+11809.4
v55-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 11:41Z → 2026-08-26 11:59Z	5	101	+1	+78	+55	+6374.5
v53-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 10:58Z → 2026-08-26 11:04Z	4	70	+22	+5	-2	+6307.7
v50-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 10:03Z → 2026-08-26 10:33Z	5	121	+34	+28	+21	+2885.8
v45	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 20:32Z → 2026-08-25 21:04Z	8	605	-86	+8	-41	-3429.4
v44	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 20:28Z → 2026-08-25 20:31Z	7	365	+15	-6	-32	+5636.0
v41	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 14:46Z → 2026-08-25 17:58Z	9	656	-481	+3	-5	-3573.8
v39	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 12:44Z → 2026-08-25 13:31Z	1	100	-100	+0	+0	-3092.3
v38	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 12:18Z → 2026-08-25 12:41Z	3	212	-12	+27	+15	+973.2
v37	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 09:45Z → 2026-08-25 09:45Z	1	28	+0	+14	+12	+37215.2
v35	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 08:50Z → 2026-08-25 08:59Z	6	184	+57	+29	+23	+14065.5
v34	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 08:46Z → 2026-08-25 08:47Z	1	131	+57	+0	+0	+258245.1
v20	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-24 13:39Z → 2026-08-24 14:34Z	3	203	-10	+94	+90	+2187.4
v16	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-24 12:42Z → 2026-08-24 13:15Z	15	375	-96	+4	+0	-4042.7
v15	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-24 12:38Z → 2026-08-24 12:39Z	9	250	-77	-26	-26	-111952.5
v14	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-24 12:35Z → 2026-08-24 12:36Z	7	222	-74	-4	-4	-86088.4
v13	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-24 12:31Z → 2026-08-24 12:32Z	8	227	-71	-4	-4	-87939.7
v12	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-24 12:16Z → 2026-08-24 12:17Z	8	222	-67	-4	-4	-92033.7
v11	paper	retired: window-complete 2026-08-23 20:07Z → 2026-08-30 04:03Z	359	10,830	+1707	+1482	+487	+503.8
v10	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-23 08:06Z → 2026-08-23 20:03Z	30	907	+216	+257	+189	+951.2
v9	paper	retired: window-complete 2026-08-22 20:03Z → 2026-08-29 00:28Z	327	7,435	+2028	+972	+410	+485.1
v8	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-22 17:52Z → 2026-08-22 19:52Z	16	400	+76	+8	+3	+1010.6
v7	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-22 08:16Z → 2026-08-22 17:06Z	6	120	+96	+95	+33	+518.9