| when | module | market | bet | 0 · price · 1 | result | why |
|---|
| 09-09 15:32 | codex-open | Will a Portion or All of Going-To-The-Sun Rd close this week? | YES 49 | | settled -49 | luna-medium price-blind says 0.88 vs market 0.50 (edge +0.38 >= 0.2): NPS already reported an alpine closure this week, has not published a reopening, and additional rain/snow is forecast before September 13, though the rules are ambiguous about whether an ongoing pre-market closure counts. |
| 09-09 13:49 | close-long | Will Apple launch their first folding devices with one that costs less tha | NO 25 | | settled -25 | longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95% |
| 09-09 12:28 | codex-open | Will Chatgpt-type Chatbots become permanent part of our daily lives before ×2 answers | NO 30 | | open +14 | luna-medium price-blind says 0.06 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.44 >= 0.3): Base rate: Pew measured 24% of U.S. adults using AI chatbots daily in February 2026, leaving a 26-point gap; the rules require only one qualifying Pew/Gallup/comparable publication before 2100, not permanence, and no specific scheduled event changes the outlook, so I estimate a 94% chance the threshold is eventually documented and 6% that the No option resolves YES. |
| 09-09 12:18 | close-long | Another politically motivated* assassination of a notable* English-speakin | NO 25 | | settled +1 | longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95% |
| 09-09 12:18 | close-fav | Will YES have fewer holders than NO? (24hr quick fuse) | YES 25 | | settled -25 | favorite band 0.90-0.97 within 24h of close resolves YES 99% |
| 09-09 11:32 | codex-open | Next Millenium Prize Problem Solved? ×4 answers | NO 300 | | open -17 | luna-medium price-blind says 0.02 vs answer 0.20 (edge -0.18 >= 0.1): Base rate is 1 officially accepted Millennium solution since 2000 (~3.8% per year); Clay requires publication, two years, and broad community acceptance, no scheduled event before 2030 mechanically resolves it, the resolver is mathematical-community consensus rather than a fixed page, and the weak proxy forecast places BSD around 2047 rather than first, so I estimate only 2%. |
| 09-09 11:05 | codex-open | Will the Republic of Venice be playable in CK3 by the end of 2028? | YES 0 | | unfilled | luna-medium price-blind says 0.94 vs market 0.50 (edge +0.44 >= 0.2): Base rate is 6/6 previously announced CK3 major expansions releasing, and Paradox’s official Silk & Silver dev diary says it adds playable republics specifically including Venice, with Q4 2026 scheduled before the 2028 close; the resolver is the official CK3 Steam DLC/announcement page, with modest discount for delay or scope risk. |
| 09-09 10:35 | codex-open | Who will be IWGP Heavyweight Champion after Destruction In Kobe? ×2 answers | YES 200 | | open +17 | luna-medium price-blind says 0.86 vs answer 0.33 (edge +0.53 >= 0.1): Base rate: incumbent IWGP heavyweight champions retain roughly 70% of recent singles defenses; rules are underspecified, so I interpret “after” as the official result of the September 27 event, where Yota Tsuji defends against Hirooki Goto; the scheduled October 12 match has Ryohei Oiwa facing the winner, a strong booking witness favoring Tsuji, though plans can change; the resolver is NJPW’s official event result/title-history record, with the announced card corroborated by [Sports Navi](https://sports.yahoo.co.jp/official/detail/2026090800059-spnaviow) and NJPW’s official guidebook listing Oiwa against the Tsuji-Goto winner. |
| 09-09 10:27 | codex-open | Will the 2028 Democratic nominee have addressed the Aipac policy conferenc | YES 33 | | open -0 | luna-medium price-blind says 0.82 vs market 0.20 (edge +0.62 >= 0.2): Historical base rate is 6/7 recent Democratic nominees (86%) having addressed AIPAC; the rule is broad but could ambiguously exclude messages or non-policy-conference events, so I adjust down for the post-Gaza boycott trend, while the likely spring 2027/2028 conferences occur before close and the resolver is AIPAC’s official conference archive cross-checked against the official Democratic nominee announcement; the related market concerns endorsement, not speaking, so it is not comparable. [historical record](https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/presidential-candidates-middle-east) [Harris at AIPAC](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=McK8bPR8pzU) [endorsement-market mismatch](https://manifold.markets/JackP/2028-democratic-nominee-previously) |
| 09-09 10:11 | codex-open | Will a Manifolder win the Metaculus Fall Cup. | NO 29 | | open +4 | luna-medium price-blind says 0.24 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.26 >= 0.2): Base rate: 0/1 directly comparable settled Manifold market resolved YES, but its 100-trade threshold and bot exclusion differ; the Fall rules include bots and ambiguously define “Manifolder,” recent evidence shows the Summer Cup leader was bot Laertes, the tournament continues past the Dec 21 market close to Jan 1, and the exact resolver is Metaculus’s final Fall 2026 leaderboard, so I estimate 24%. |
| 09-09 09:47 | close-fav | NFL Week 1: Will Seattle cover -3.5 vs. New England OR will total points b | YES 25 | | settled -25 | favorite band 0.90-0.97 within 24h of close resolves YES 99% |
| 09-09 09:30 | codex-open | Will ChatGPT Pro be available for new subscribers by: ×3 answers | YES 0 | | unfilled | luna-medium price-blind says 1.00 vs answer 0.43 (edge +0.57 >= 0.3): Base rate: Pro has remained available for roughly 21 months since its December 2024 launch; rules are clear, the official resolver currently says users can upgrade anytime, scheduled October OpenAI events provide no announced withdrawal signal, and no matching witness market was needed. |
| 09-09 07:27 | codex-open | Will Barcelona beat Feyenoord? | YES 47 | | settled +32 | luna-medium price-blind says 0.87 vs market 0.50 (edge +0.37 >= 0.2): Base rate: market-implied home-win probability is about 87% after removing bookmaker margin; the rules are clear, Barcelona’s strong form is secondary to that rate, the scheduled event is Barcelona–Feyenoord on September 9 at 18:45 CEST, and UEFA’s official match report is the resolver, with sportsbook prices only a proxy. |
| 09-09 06:46 | close-fav | Will Hunter Biden actually launch a meme coin on September 9, 2026? | YES 25 | | settled +2 | favorite band 0.90-0.97 within 24h of close resolves YES 99% |
| 09-09 06:46 | close-long | 📱 Will Apple announce a U.S. starting price of at least $2,400 for its fol | NO 25 | | settled +2 | longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95% |
| 09-09 06:11 | codex-open | Will aging be solved by EOY 2035? | NO 28 | | open +11 | luna-medium price-blind says 0.03 vs market 0.42 (edge -0.39 >= 0.2): Base rate is 0% confirmed cases of reversible aging plus human biological immortality; current geroscience targets healthspan, no scheduled event mechanically settles this, and the resolver is the creator’s subjective purchase test, so ambiguity modestly raises the estimate toward 0.5. [JAMA review](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/40773213/) |
| 09-09 06:05 | xvenue-jump | Will Ben Shelton win the 2026 US Open men's singles title? ×21 answers | NO 92 | | settled +27 | verified polymarket twin at 0.15, manifold 0.31, signal=jump |
| 09-09 05:08 | xvenue-jump | Will Ben Shelton win the 2026 US Open men's singles title? ×9 answers | YES 12 | | settled -12 | verified polymarket twin at 0.28, manifold 0.13, signal=jump |
| 09-09 05:03 | xvenue-jump | Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 US Open men's singles title? ×11 answers | NO 104 | | settled +61 | verified polymarket twin at 0.32, manifold 0.41, signal=jump |
| 09-09 04:04 | xvenue-jump | Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 US Open men's singles title? ×12 answers | NO 103 | | settled +127 | verified polymarket twin at 0.49, manifold 0.60, signal=jump |
| 09-09 03:15 | close-long | Will 50% or more of AWS developers stop coding for AWS in the next 24 mont | NO 25 | | open -0 | longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95% |
| 09-09 02:58 | codex-open | So uhhh | NO 0 | | unfilled | luna-medium price-blind says 0.03 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.47 >= 0.2): Base rate: 0% for markets lacking a defined YES condition; the rules specify only a one-year NO fallback, with no calendar event, exact resolver, or matching witness, so the unresolved wording leaves only a small chance of discretionary YES resolution. |
| 09-09 02:10 | codex-open | Will there be >250k tech layoffs in 2027 according to Layoffs.fyi? | NO 0 | | unfilled | luna-medium price-blind says 0.30 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.20 >= 0.2): Only 1 of 4 completed years exceeded 250,000, while 2026 is elevated and AI restructuring raises the chance of another unusually severe year; I estimate a 30% probability. |
| 09-09 01:52 | codex-open | Will a persistent “chem trail” appear on at least one UW–Madison rooftop c | NO 0 | | unfilled | luna-medium price-blind says 0.28 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.22 >= 0.2): Base rate: persistent contrails occur in roughly 12–15% of unobscured hourly observations; the four-hour, five-camera opportunity raises this to about 25–35%, but September is near the seasonal low. Forecasts call for sunny skies, light NNW wind, and 0–7% precipitation, favoring usable footage but not especially persistent trails; no scheduled event materially changes this. The exact resolver is the [UW–Madison AOSS archive](https://www.aos.wisc.edu/weather/wx_obs/WebCam.html), and no matching witness market was found. [EPA summary](https://hero.epa.gov/reference/1609131/) |
| 09-09 01:43 | codex-open | Guess my 3 favourite male music artists! ×4 answers | NO 0 | | cancelled | luna-medium price-blind says 0.15 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.35 >= 0.3): Base rate: an arbitrary male artist has roughly a 3% chance of occupying one of three slots among about 100 plausible favorites; PARTYNEXTDOOR’s current visibility raises this to ~15%, the rules are mildly ambiguous because hints and ad-hoc eliminations affect trading, no event before the 2026-09-16 close materially changes the odds, the resolver is the creator’s market determination, and no matching witness prices are available. |
| 09-09 01:39 | codex-open | How much stocks will trump tell us to buy in the next week ×4 answers | YES 43 | | settled -43 | luna-medium price-blind says 0.56 vs answer 0.07 (edge +0.49 >= 0.1): Base rate: roughly 70% of one-week windows likely contain no explicit Trump stock-buy instruction, but recent 2026 endorsements raise this week's nonzero risk; rules and exact resolver are unspecified, so ambiguity pulls toward 0.5, with PPI (Sep 10), CPI (Sep 11), and Trump's 9/11 remarks as possible catalysts, while the likely resolver is an unspecified official Trump statement/social-media record rather than a named source ([BLS](https://www.bls.gov/ppi/), [White House](https://www.whitehouse.gov/news/)). |
| 09-09 01:15 | close-fav | 9984 reaches 6800 by Sep 10? | YES 25 | | settled +1 | favorite band 0.90-0.97 within 24h of close resolves YES 99% |
| 09-09 00:20 | codex-open | What [mathematical statement] will happen by [date]? ×4 answers | NO 85 | | open +0 | luna-medium price-blind says 0.00 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.50 >= 0.3): Base rate: only 1 of 7 Millennium problems (14.3%) has been solved in roughly 26 years, or about 0.55% annually; Clay still says no Yang–Mills proof is known, online proof claims are not authoritative, no scheduled event mechanically changes the odds before May 2027, the resolver is the Clay Mathematics Institute’s official problem/status announcement, no matching witness market is available, and the May-versus-June deadline conflict adds ambiguity, so I estimate 0.3%. |
Showing the newest 28 of 323 trades (539 bets); each module page carries its whole book.