paper · 2026-09-02 13:27Z → 2026-09-09 15:32Z
v86paper
retired: window-complete5 live · 5 shadow · 1 off
bets
539 162 settled
staked
13,928
realised
+1183
open, if held
+3446
open, if sold
+1059
per day
+653.2

Evaluation

v86paper window 2026-09-02 13:27Z → now, 7.1 d resolved 26 / 40 retired: window-complete
sim
+113.0 /day prod, same window
+283.0 /day
HOLD noise floor ±97.0/day (5 pts of prod stake) · markets bet by both 47

Modules of v86

Own trades and own declines only; each module's page has the reasoning.

codex-openlive

+2,441 / +3,392

A price-blind language-model estimate on each new market; bets only when it disagrees with the price by more than the configured edge.

0bets by entry price1
bets
365
staked
10,784
settled
30/62 won
realised
+1576
open (209) sold
+864
open (209) held
+1816
return sold
+23%
return held
+31%
booked off probe
7

close-favshadow

+305 / +305

Favourites at 0.90-0.97 inside 24h of close resolve YES about 99% of the time.

0bets by entry price1
bets
13
staked
325
settled
10/12 won
realised
+305
open (1) sold
+0
open (1) held
+0
return sold
+94%
return held
+94%

class-fadeshadow

+225 / +1,563

0bets by entry price1
bets
4
staked
89
settled
none settled yet
realised
+0
open (2) sold
+225
open (2) held
+1563
return sold
+253%
return held
+1755%

xvenue-jumplive

+214 / +262

When a real-money twin on Kalshi or Polymarket jumps 10+ points, carries the move onto the Manifold mirror.

0bets by entry price1
bets
58
staked
428
settled
44/53 won
realised
+203
open (5) sold
+12
open (5) held
+59
return sold
+50%
return held
+61%

close-longshadow

+19 / +19

Longshots at 0.03-0.15 inside 24h of close resolve NO about 95% of the time.

0bets by entry price1
bets
21
staked
525
settled
17/18 won
realised
+18
open (3) sold
+1
open (3) held
+1
return sold
+4%
return held
+4%

mc-otherlive

+2 / +3

The catch-all 'Other' answer in winner-take-all markets is overpriced above 0.20; buys NO toward 0.12.

0bets by entry price1
bets
5
staked
62
settled
none settled yet
realised
+0
open (5) sold
+2
open (5) held
+3
return sold
+4%
return held
+5%

numeric-tailshadow

-3 / -0

Buys the lowest bucket of a new numeric or date market.

0bets by entry price1
bets
4
staked
19
settled
none settled yet
realised
+0
open (4) sold
-3
open (4) held
+0
return sold
-18%
return held
-2%

down-fadeshadow

-10 / -10

0bets by entry price1
bets
1
staked
18
settled
none settled yet
realised
+0
open (1) sold
-10
open (1) held
-10
return sold
-60%
return held
-59%

mc-indepshadow

-22 / -19

Independent multiple-choice answers listed at creation resolve YES far less often than their 0.50 opens imply.

0bets by entry price1
bets
12
staked
117
settled
0/1 won
realised
-3
open (8) sold
-19
open (8) held
-16
return sold
-19%
return held
-16%

market-keepershadow

-101 / -82

0bets by entry price1
bets
5
staked
165
settled
0/4 won
realised
-98
open (1) sold
-3
open (1) held
+16
return sold
-62%
return held
-50%

open-snipeshadow

-266 / -242

Bets a brand-new untraded market from its opening price toward the historical resolution rate of its cell (type x price x horizon x ante).

0bets by entry price1
bets
43
staked
837
settled
1/6 won
realised
-257
open (32) sold
-9
open (32) held
+15
return sold
-32%
return held
-29%

whale-fadelive

-560 / -560

A single 100+ mana YES bet that pushes a mid-life market up 5+ points is overconfident on average; fades it.

0bets by entry price1
bets
8
staked
560
settled
0/6 won
realised
-560
open (0) sold
+0
open (0) held
+0
return sold
-100%
return held
-100%

codex-swingoff

no fills

Exit policy for codex-open positions.

disabled in this version's config

event-makeroff

no fills

Quotes both sides of busy event markets and collects the spread.

disabled in this version's config

park-nolive

no fills

Parks idle mana as NO in stale mid-priced books instead of leaving it in cash.

judged 341 markets, placed nothing

Trades of v86

whenmodulemarketbet0 · price · 1resultwhy
09-09 15:32codex-openWill a Portion or All of Going-To-The-Sun Rd close this week?YES 49settled -49luna-medium price-blind says 0.88 vs market 0.50 (edge +0.38 >= 0.2): NPS already reported an alpine closure this week, has not published a reopening, and additional rain/snow is forecast before September 13, though the rules are ambiguous about whether an ongoing pre-market closure counts.
09-09 13:49close-longWill Apple launch their first folding devices with one that costs less thaNO 25settled -25longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
09-09 12:28codex-openWill Chatgpt-type Chatbots become permanent part of our daily lives before ×2 answersNO 30open +14luna-medium price-blind says 0.06 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.44 >= 0.3): Base rate: Pew measured 24% of U.S. adults using AI chatbots daily in February 2026, leaving a 26-point gap; the rules require only one qualifying Pew/Gallup/comparable publication before 2100, not permanence, and no specific scheduled event changes the outlook, so I estimate a 94% chance the threshold is eventually documented and 6% that the No option resolves YES.
09-09 12:18close-longAnother politically motivated* assassination of a notable* English-speakinNO 25settled +1longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
09-09 12:18close-favWill YES have fewer holders than NO? (24hr quick fuse)YES 25settled -25favorite band 0.90-0.97 within 24h of close resolves YES 99%
09-09 11:32codex-openNext Millenium Prize Problem Solved? ×4 answersNO 300open -17luna-medium price-blind says 0.02 vs answer 0.20 (edge -0.18 >= 0.1): Base rate is 1 officially accepted Millennium solution since 2000 (~3.8% per year); Clay requires publication, two years, and broad community acceptance, no scheduled event before 2030 mechanically resolves it, the resolver is mathematical-community consensus rather than a fixed page, and the weak proxy forecast places BSD around 2047 rather than first, so I estimate only 2%.
09-09 11:05codex-openWill the Republic of Venice be playable in CK3 by the end of 2028?YES 0unfilledluna-medium price-blind says 0.94 vs market 0.50 (edge +0.44 >= 0.2): Base rate is 6/6 previously announced CK3 major expansions releasing, and Paradox’s official Silk & Silver dev diary says it adds playable republics specifically including Venice, with Q4 2026 scheduled before the 2028 close; the resolver is the official CK3 Steam DLC/announcement page, with modest discount for delay or scope risk.
09-09 10:35codex-openWho will be IWGP Heavyweight Champion after Destruction In Kobe? ×2 answersYES 200open +17luna-medium price-blind says 0.86 vs answer 0.33 (edge +0.53 >= 0.1): Base rate: incumbent IWGP heavyweight champions retain roughly 70% of recent singles defenses; rules are underspecified, so I interpret “after” as the official result of the September 27 event, where Yota Tsuji defends against Hirooki Goto; the scheduled October 12 match has Ryohei Oiwa facing the winner, a strong booking witness favoring Tsuji, though plans can change; the resolver is NJPW’s official event result/title-history record, with the announced card corroborated by [Sports Navi](https://sports.yahoo.co.jp/official/detail/2026090800059-spnaviow) and NJPW’s official guidebook listing Oiwa against the Tsuji-Goto winner.
09-09 10:27codex-openWill the 2028 Democratic nominee have addressed the Aipac policy conferencYES 33open -0luna-medium price-blind says 0.82 vs market 0.20 (edge +0.62 >= 0.2): Historical base rate is 6/7 recent Democratic nominees (86%) having addressed AIPAC; the rule is broad but could ambiguously exclude messages or non-policy-conference events, so I adjust down for the post-Gaza boycott trend, while the likely spring 2027/2028 conferences occur before close and the resolver is AIPAC’s official conference archive cross-checked against the official Democratic nominee announcement; the related market concerns endorsement, not speaking, so it is not comparable. [historical record](https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/presidential-candidates-middle-east) [Harris at AIPAC](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=McK8bPR8pzU) [endorsement-market mismatch](https://manifold.markets/JackP/2028-democratic-nominee-previously)
09-09 10:11codex-openWill a Manifolder win the Metaculus Fall Cup.NO 29open +4luna-medium price-blind says 0.24 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.26 >= 0.2): Base rate: 0/1 directly comparable settled Manifold market resolved YES, but its 100-trade threshold and bot exclusion differ; the Fall rules include bots and ambiguously define “Manifolder,” recent evidence shows the Summer Cup leader was bot Laertes, the tournament continues past the Dec 21 market close to Jan 1, and the exact resolver is Metaculus’s final Fall 2026 leaderboard, so I estimate 24%.
09-09 09:47close-favNFL Week 1: Will Seattle cover -3.5 vs. New England OR will total points bYES 25settled -25favorite band 0.90-0.97 within 24h of close resolves YES 99%
09-09 09:30codex-openWill ChatGPT Pro be available for new subscribers by: ×3 answersYES 0unfilledluna-medium price-blind says 1.00 vs answer 0.43 (edge +0.57 >= 0.3): Base rate: Pro has remained available for roughly 21 months since its December 2024 launch; rules are clear, the official resolver currently says users can upgrade anytime, scheduled October OpenAI events provide no announced withdrawal signal, and no matching witness market was needed.
09-09 07:27codex-openWill Barcelona beat Feyenoord?YES 47settled +32luna-medium price-blind says 0.87 vs market 0.50 (edge +0.37 >= 0.2): Base rate: market-implied home-win probability is about 87% after removing bookmaker margin; the rules are clear, Barcelona’s strong form is secondary to that rate, the scheduled event is Barcelona–Feyenoord on September 9 at 18:45 CEST, and UEFA’s official match report is the resolver, with sportsbook prices only a proxy.
09-09 06:46close-favWill Hunter Biden actually launch a meme coin on September 9, 2026?YES 25settled +2favorite band 0.90-0.97 within 24h of close resolves YES 99%
09-09 06:46close-long📱 Will Apple announce a U.S. starting price of at least $2,400 for its folNO 25settled +2longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
09-09 06:11codex-openWill aging be solved by EOY 2035?NO 28open +11luna-medium price-blind says 0.03 vs market 0.42 (edge -0.39 >= 0.2): Base rate is 0% confirmed cases of reversible aging plus human biological immortality; current geroscience targets healthspan, no scheduled event mechanically settles this, and the resolver is the creator’s subjective purchase test, so ambiguity modestly raises the estimate toward 0.5. [JAMA review](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/40773213/)
09-09 06:05xvenue-jumpWill Ben Shelton win the 2026 US Open men's singles title? ×21 answersNO 92settled +27verified polymarket twin at 0.15, manifold 0.31, signal=jump
09-09 05:08xvenue-jumpWill Ben Shelton win the 2026 US Open men's singles title? ×9 answersYES 12settled -12verified polymarket twin at 0.28, manifold 0.13, signal=jump
09-09 05:03xvenue-jumpWill Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 US Open men's singles title? ×11 answersNO 104settled +61verified polymarket twin at 0.32, manifold 0.41, signal=jump
09-09 04:04xvenue-jumpWill Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 US Open men's singles title? ×12 answersNO 103settled +127verified polymarket twin at 0.49, manifold 0.60, signal=jump
09-09 03:15close-longWill 50% or more of AWS developers stop coding for AWS in the next 24 montNO 25open -0longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
09-09 02:58codex-openSo uhhhNO 0unfilledluna-medium price-blind says 0.03 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.47 >= 0.2): Base rate: 0% for markets lacking a defined YES condition; the rules specify only a one-year NO fallback, with no calendar event, exact resolver, or matching witness, so the unresolved wording leaves only a small chance of discretionary YES resolution.
09-09 02:10codex-openWill there be >250k tech layoffs in 2027 according to Layoffs.fyi?NO 0unfilledluna-medium price-blind says 0.30 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.20 >= 0.2): Only 1 of 4 completed years exceeded 250,000, while 2026 is elevated and AI restructuring raises the chance of another unusually severe year; I estimate a 30% probability.
09-09 01:52codex-openWill a persistent “chem trail” appear on at least one UW–Madison rooftop cNO 0unfilledluna-medium price-blind says 0.28 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.22 >= 0.2): Base rate: persistent contrails occur in roughly 12–15% of unobscured hourly observations; the four-hour, five-camera opportunity raises this to about 25–35%, but September is near the seasonal low. Forecasts call for sunny skies, light NNW wind, and 0–7% precipitation, favoring usable footage but not especially persistent trails; no scheduled event materially changes this. The exact resolver is the [UW–Madison AOSS archive](https://www.aos.wisc.edu/weather/wx_obs/WebCam.html), and no matching witness market was found. [EPA summary](https://hero.epa.gov/reference/1609131/)
09-09 01:43codex-openGuess my 3 favourite male music artists! ×4 answersNO 0cancelledluna-medium price-blind says 0.15 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.35 >= 0.3): Base rate: an arbitrary male artist has roughly a 3% chance of occupying one of three slots among about 100 plausible favorites; PARTYNEXTDOOR’s current visibility raises this to ~15%, the rules are mildly ambiguous because hints and ad-hoc eliminations affect trading, no event before the 2026-09-16 close materially changes the odds, the resolver is the creator’s market determination, and no matching witness prices are available.
09-09 01:39codex-openHow much stocks will trump tell us to buy in the next week ×4 answersYES 43settled -43luna-medium price-blind says 0.56 vs answer 0.07 (edge +0.49 >= 0.1): Base rate: roughly 70% of one-week windows likely contain no explicit Trump stock-buy instruction, but recent 2026 endorsements raise this week's nonzero risk; rules and exact resolver are unspecified, so ambiguity pulls toward 0.5, with PPI (Sep 10), CPI (Sep 11), and Trump's 9/11 remarks as possible catalysts, while the likely resolver is an unspecified official Trump statement/social-media record rather than a named source ([BLS](https://www.bls.gov/ppi/), [White House](https://www.whitehouse.gov/news/)).
09-09 01:15close-fav9984 reaches 6800 by Sep 10?YES 25settled +1favorite band 0.90-0.97 within 24h of close resolves YES 99%
09-09 00:20codex-openWhat [mathematical statement] will happen by [date]? ×4 answersNO 85open +0luna-medium price-blind says 0.00 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.50 >= 0.3): Base rate: only 1 of 7 Millennium problems (14.3%) has been solved in roughly 26 years, or about 0.55% annually; Clay still says no Yang–Mills proof is known, online proof claims are not authoritative, no scheduled event mechanically changes the odds before May 2027, the resolver is the Clay Mathematics Institute’s official problem/status announcement, no matching witness market is available, and the May-versus-June deadline conflict adds ambiguity, so I estimate 0.3%.

Showing the newest 28 of 323 trades (539 bets); each module page carries its whole book.

The lineage

versionmanastatus · windowbetsstakedrealisedopen heldopen soldper day
v89reallive in prod
2026-09-19 16:42Z → running
2215,709+338+386-116+242.3
v88realretired, book still settling
2026-09-03 13:36Z → 2026-09-19 16:42Z
111730,685+928+4016+1235+306.5
v81realretired, book still settling
2026-08-30 09:55Z → 2026-09-03 13:36Z
39313,334+1646+760+5+579.2
v80realretired, book still settling
2026-08-29 19:42Z → 2026-08-30 09:55Z
26595+7-1-6+11.3
v78realretired, book still settling
2026-08-29 17:15Z → 2026-08-29 19:28Z
11411+25-47-71-242.6
v77realretired, book still settling
2026-08-29 16:03Z → 2026-08-29 17:15Z
5247-18-32-52-985.7
v77realretired, book still settling
2026-08-29 16:03Z → 2026-08-29 17:15Z
5247-18-32-52-985.7
v76realretired, book still settling
2026-08-29 15:27Z → 2026-08-29 16:02Z
10298+320+0+0+13115.0
v75realretired, book still settling
2026-08-29 13:01Z → 2026-08-29 15:27Z
13218+149+0+0+1479.0
v74realretired, book still settling
2026-08-29 10:35Z → 2026-08-29 13:01Z
12128+23-14-22+89.3
v73realretired, book still settling
2026-08-29 10:24Z → 2026-08-29 10:35Z
10250+3+2+1+616.5
v72realretired, book still settling
2026-08-29 10:12Z → 2026-08-29 10:24Z
5125+2+1+1+343.1
v71realretired, book still settling
2026-08-29 10:03Z → 2026-08-29 10:12Z
5125+2+2+2+553.2
v70realretired, book still settling
2026-08-29 06:12Z → 2026-08-29 10:03Z
9150-9+8+8-3.0
v67realretired, book still settling
2026-08-28 07:38Z → 2026-08-29 06:12Z
27475-108+40+21-72.3
v66realretired, book still settling
2026-08-28 06:43Z → 2026-08-28 07:38Z
250+1+0-0+36.5
v65realretired, book still settling
2026-08-27 19:48Z → 2026-08-28 06:43Z
18253+340+3-3+753.4
v64realretired, book still settling
2026-08-27 10:06Z → 2026-08-27 19:48Z
9227+36-64-72-69.3
v63realretired, book still settling
2026-08-27 08:12Z → 2026-08-27 10:06Z
375+5-3-5+36.5
v62realretired, book still settling
2026-08-27 07:18Z → 2026-08-27 08:12Z
369+5+3+2+224.9
v89-twinpaperevaluating
2026-09-19 16:43Z → running
1963,632+191+1131+520+442.7
codex-paperpaperretired: window-complete
2026-08-22 19:49Z → 2026-08-22 19:49Z
140+0+13+4-
v88-twinpaperretired: prod-moved
2026-09-03 16:10Z → 2026-09-19 12:21Z
141226,687+1027+5778+2442+429.6
v87paperretired: superseded-same-day
2026-09-03 00:02Z → 2026-09-03 15:21Z
54952-375+95-2-438.5
v86paperretired: window-complete
2026-09-02 13:27Z → 2026-09-09 15:32Z
53913,928+1183+3446+1059+653.2
v85paperretired: superseded-same-day
2026-09-02 10:16Z → 2026-09-02 13:08Z
21849+775+114-7+7461.3
v84paperretired: superseded-same-day
2026-09-02 02:00Z → 2026-09-02 08:22Z
46350-40+42+18+5.7
v83paperretired: window-complete
2026-09-01 10:09Z → 2026-09-08 03:32Z
64611,605+727+2860+835+533.5
v82paperretired: window-complete
2026-08-30 22:07Z → 2026-09-01 09:44Z
1773,963+247+167-2+279.2
v80-twinpaperretired: prod-moved
2026-08-29 22:05Z → 2026-08-30 07:42Z
28650+61+43+20+259.9
v77-twinpaperretired: prod-moved
2026-08-29 16:04Z → 2026-08-29 17:52Z
15400-116+170+54+723.9
v75-twinpaperretired: prod-moved
2026-08-29 13:31Z → 2026-08-29 15:38Z
16474-200+35-4-1880.5
v72-twinpaperretired: prod-moved
2026-08-29 10:14Z → 2026-08-29 12:19Z
11250+26+20+5+532.6
v70-twinpaperretired: prod-moved
2026-08-29 08:17Z → 2026-08-29 08:29Z
6140+2+8+8+1241.1
v68paperretired: window-complete
2026-08-28 13:52Z → 2026-08-30 18:48Z
732,211+410+330+249+335.1
v67-twinpaperretired: prod-moved
2026-08-28 08:16Z → 2026-08-29 07:19Z
32792+239+112+80+365.9
v65-twinpaperretired: prod-moved
2026-08-27 20:15Z → 2026-08-28 02:27Z
17238-57+16+10-159.6
v64-twinpaperretired: prod-moved
2026-08-27 10:07Z → 2026-08-27 20:07Z
13334+34-51-58-41.4
v63-twinpaperretired: prod-moved
2026-08-27 08:14Z → 2026-08-27 08:18Z
5347+3+22+5+11001.8
v62-twinpaperretired: prod-moved
2026-08-27 07:20Z → 2026-08-27 07:48Z
6310+3+24+13+1336.9
v60-twinpaperretired: prod-moved
2026-08-27 10:06Z → 2026-08-27 10:06Z
250+3+0+0+109728.0
v59-twinpaperretired: prod-moved
2026-08-26 20:46Z → 2026-08-26 20:46Z
384+0+11+1+460637.2
v58-twinpaperretired: prod-moved
2026-08-26 12:59Z → 2026-08-26 19:49Z
13391-67+13-11-190.2
v57-twinpaperretired: prod-moved
2026-08-26 12:24Z → 2026-08-26 12:51Z
28+0+12+4+626.0
v56-twinpaperretired: prod-moved
2026-08-26 12:01Z → 2026-08-26 12:10Z
3110+0+75+49+11809.4
v55-twinpaperretired: prod-moved
2026-08-26 11:41Z → 2026-08-26 11:59Z
5101+1+78+55+6374.5
v53-twinpaperretired: prod-moved
2026-08-26 10:58Z → 2026-08-26 11:04Z
470+22+5-2+6307.7
v50-twinpaperretired: prod-moved
2026-08-26 10:03Z → 2026-08-26 10:33Z
5121+34+28+21+2885.8
v45paperretired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-25 20:32Z → 2026-08-25 21:04Z
8605-86+8-41-3429.4
v44paperretired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-25 20:28Z → 2026-08-25 20:31Z
7365+15-6-32+5636.0
v41paperretired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-25 14:46Z → 2026-08-25 17:58Z
9656-481+3-5-3573.8
v39paperretired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-25 12:44Z → 2026-08-25 13:31Z
1100-100+0+0-3092.3
v38paperretired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-25 12:18Z → 2026-08-25 12:41Z
3212-12+27+15+973.2
v37paperretired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-25 09:45Z → 2026-08-25 09:45Z
128+0+14+12+37215.2
v35paperretired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-25 08:50Z → 2026-08-25 08:59Z
6184+57+29+23+14065.5
v34paperretired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-25 08:46Z → 2026-08-25 08:47Z
1131+57+0+0+258245.1
v20paperretired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-24 13:39Z → 2026-08-24 14:34Z
3203-10+94+90+2187.4
v16paperretired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-24 12:42Z → 2026-08-24 13:15Z
15375-96+4+0-4042.7
v15paperretired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-24 12:38Z → 2026-08-24 12:39Z
9250-77-26-26-111952.5
v14paperretired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-24 12:35Z → 2026-08-24 12:36Z
7222-74-4-4-86088.4
v13paperretired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-24 12:31Z → 2026-08-24 12:32Z
8227-71-4-4-87939.7
v12paperretired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-24 12:16Z → 2026-08-24 12:17Z
8222-67-4-4-92033.7
v11paperretired: window-complete
2026-08-23 20:07Z → 2026-08-30 04:03Z
35910,830+1707+1482+487+503.8
v10paperretired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-23 08:06Z → 2026-08-23 20:03Z
30907+216+257+189+951.2
v9paperretired: window-complete
2026-08-22 20:03Z → 2026-08-29 00:28Z
3277,435+2028+972+410+485.1
v8paperretired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-22 17:52Z → 2026-08-22 19:52Z
16400+76+8+3+1010.6
v7paperretired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-22 08:16Z → 2026-08-22 17:06Z
6120+96+95+33+518.9