candidates against prod
evalthe canary's verdicts
A candidate runs seven days as a paper sim. It promotes when its window is long enough, enough of its bets resolved, and it earns at least as much mana per day as prod did over the same window, beyond a noise floor. Sim stakes are de-scaled, haircut by prod's fill rate and replayed against prod's bankroll before any of that is compared.

No candidate is running.

Retired candidates

Each with the verdict it had when it stopped. Most were superseded by a same-day tag before the window could close.

simstatus · windowdaysresolvedsim /dayprod /dayverdict
codex-paperretired: window-complete
2026-08-22 19:49Z → 2026-08-22 19:49Z
3.70+0.0-36.4HOLD · window 3.7d < 7d; resolved 0 < 40
v87retired: superseded-same-day
2026-09-03 00:02Z → 2026-09-03 15:21Z
0.71-245.4+130.5HOLD · window 0.7d < 7d; resolved 1 < 40; sim earns -245.4 mana/day (de-scaled /1) vs prod +130.5, beyond the 5.0pt-of-stake noise floor (75.8/day)
v86retired: window-complete
2026-09-02 13:27Z → 2026-09-09 15:32Z
7.126+113.0+283.0HOLD · resolved 26 < 40; sim earns +113.0 mana/day (de-scaled /1) vs prod +283.0, beyond the 5.0pt-of-stake noise floor (97.0/day)
v85retired: superseded-same-day
2026-09-02 10:16Z → 2026-09-02 13:08Z
0.12+2803.2+5256.2HOLD · window 0.1d < 7d; resolved 2 < 40; sim earns +2803.2 mana/day (de-scaled /1) vs prod +5256.2, beyond the 5.0pt-of-stake noise floor (306.4/day)
v84retired: superseded-same-day
2026-09-02 02:00Z → 2026-09-02 08:22Z
0.30-12.1+115.9HOLD · window 0.3d < 7d; resolved 0 < 40; sim earns -12.1 mana/day (de-scaled /1) vs prod +115.9, beyond the 5.0pt-of-stake noise floor (114.2/day)
v83retired: window-complete
2026-09-01 10:09Z → 2026-09-08 03:32Z
6.726-81.7+191.3HOLD · window 6.7d < 7d; resolved 26 < 40; sim earns -81.7 mana/day (de-scaled /1) vs prod +191.3, beyond the 5.0pt-of-stake noise floor (93.3/day)
v82retired: window-complete
2026-08-30 22:07Z → 2026-09-01 09:44Z
6.241+23.7+445.4HOLD · window 6.2d < 7d; sim earns +23.7 mana/day (de-scaled /1) vs prod +445.4, beyond the 5.0pt-of-stake noise floor (125.1/day)
v68retired: window-complete
2026-08-28 13:52Z → 2026-08-30 18:48Z
6.634+63.7+339.8HOLD · window 6.6d < 7d; resolved 34 < 40; sim earns +63.7 mana/day (de-scaled /1) vs prod +339.8, beyond the 5.0pt-of-stake noise floor (129.4/day)
v45retired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-25 20:32Z → 2026-08-25 21:04Z
0.71+0.2-184.6HOLD · window 0.7d < 7d; resolved 1 < 40
v44retired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-25 20:28Z → 2026-08-25 20:31Z
0.71+0.2-183.9HOLD · window 0.7d < 7d; resolved 1 < 40
v41retired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-25 14:46Z → 2026-08-25 17:58Z
0.94-1.2-147.1HOLD · window 0.9d < 7d; resolved 4 < 40
v39retired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-25 12:44Z → 2026-08-25 13:31Z
0.91-6.0-165.3HOLD · window 0.9d < 7d; resolved 1 < 40
v38retired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-25 12:18Z → 2026-08-25 12:41Z
1.00+0.0-157.6HOLD · window 1.0d < 7d; resolved 0 < 40
v37retired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-25 09:45Z → 2026-08-25 09:45Z
1.10+0.0-141.8HOLD · window 1.1d < 7d; resolved 0 < 40
v35retired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-25 08:50Z → 2026-08-25 08:59Z
1.11+3.9-137.0HOLD · window 1.1d < 7d; resolved 1 < 40
v34retired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-25 08:46Z → 2026-08-25 08:47Z
1.11+3.9-136.7HOLD · window 1.1d < 7d; resolved 1 < 40
v20retired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-24 13:39Z → 2026-08-24 14:34Z
1.90+0.0-71.8HOLD · window 1.9d < 7d; resolved 0 < 40
v16retired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-24 12:42Z → 2026-08-24 13:15Z
2.00+0.0-69.7HOLD · window 2.0d < 7d; resolved 0 < 40
v15retired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-24 12:38Z → 2026-08-24 12:39Z
2.01+0.0-69.6HOLD · window 2.0d < 7d; resolved 1 < 40
v14retired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-24 12:35Z → 2026-08-24 12:36Z
2.00+0.0-69.5HOLD · window 2.0d < 7d; resolved 0 < 40
v13retired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-24 12:31Z → 2026-08-24 12:32Z
2.00+0.0-69.4HOLD · window 2.0d < 7d; resolved 0 < 40
v12retired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-24 12:16Z → 2026-08-24 12:17Z
2.00+0.0-69.0HOLD · window 2.0d < 7d; resolved 0 < 40
v11retired: window-complete
2026-08-23 20:07Z → 2026-08-30 04:03Z
6.361+74.0+2.5HOLD · window 6.3d < 7d
v10retired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-23 08:06Z → 2026-08-23 20:03Z
3.21-7.2-42.3HOLD · window 3.2d < 7d; resolved 1 < 40
v9retired: window-complete
2026-08-22 20:03Z → 2026-08-29 00:28Z
6.315+34.4+25.0HOLD · window 6.3d < 7d; resolved 15 < 40
v8retired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-22 17:52Z → 2026-08-22 19:52Z
3.81-6.0-35.6HOLD · window 3.8d < 7d; resolved 1 < 40
v7retired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-22 08:16Z → 2026-08-22 17:06Z
4.21+21.0-32.2HOLD · window 4.2d < 7d; resolved 1 < 40

Fidelity: paper against real

A twin is a paper sim of prod's own tag running beside it; its bets pair with prod's real ones by module, market and side, and the gap between the two books is the paper fill's error. Twins are not candidates.