xvenue‑jump

The same question often trades on Kalshi or Polymarket with real money behind it. When the Manifold mirror drifts more than 10% from that price, the difference is either information this venue has not absorbed yet or a pairing that was wrong to begin with. A jump is the twin moving and the mirror not yet following; a standing gap is the two venues simply disagreeing. The twin's own book has to be real to count: spread under 5%, at least 100 traded in a day. Jumps trade live in this version; standing gaps are shadow only, logged as what it would have done and moving no mana.

One question, two venues

Showing the newest 40 of 75 crossings; the book below has them all.

Where candidates died · 0 pairs judged

The book · v88-twin

75 trades, 534 staked, realised +360, open +59 if held / +12 if sold.

75 jumps for 534 mana, realised +360, 5 open; 0 standing gaps for 0 mana. The other venue's price is only worth following when its own book is real: a wide spread or a quiet day makes the number decoration, which is why those are separate rejections rather than one.
Traces are diagnostic and rotate; the trading journal is separate. Built 2026-09-22 18:27Z.