mc‑other

module 1.0 · v88-twin ← trader

When a market's answers must sum to one there is usually a catch-all — Other, none of these, Someone else — and it gets priced like a real candidate instead of the residue it is. Above 0.20 that is worth fading: this module buys NO on that single answer, aiming at about 0.12, and ignores every other answer in the market.

A bet on Other also covers any answer added later. So on a market where anyone can still add answers, Other is not the leftover this module fades — it is the chance the winner is not listed yet, and this module bets brand-new markets, when the list is shortest. Those markets are declined and counted below; the published edge never split on this and its sample is not in the repo, so the population is unmeasured rather than known-bad.

The slice it fades

Which party will win the Abbotsford-Mission provincial by-election? :: Otherbet 11 mana · v88-twin · open +2
the named answers“other” at 0.25 → worth about 0.12
Who will win the 2027 Democratic primary for governor of Kentucky? :: Otherbet 15 mana · v88-twin · open
the named answers“other” at 0.50 → worth about 0.12
Who will be the next Chairman of Tata Sons? :: Otherbet 10 mana · v88-twin · open -0
the named answers“other” at 0.25 → worth about 0.12

Where candidates died · 0 markets judged

Nothing judged yet.

The book · v88-twin

utcversionmarketbetresultwhy
09-19 11:27v88-twinWhich party will win the Abbotsford-Mission provincial by-election? :: OtherNO 11open +2sum-to-one Other answers priced >=0.20 resolve ~10-21%% historically; open 0.25 -> target 0.12
09-07 04:16v88-twinWho will win the 2027 Democratic primary for governor of Kentucky? :: OtherNO 15opensum-to-one Other answers priced >=0.20 resolve ~10-21%% historically; open 0.50 -> target 0.12
09-06 11:12v88-twinWho will be the next Chairman of Tata Sons? :: OtherNO 10open -0sum-to-one Other answers priced >=0.20 resolve ~10-21%% historically; open 0.25 -> target 0.12

3 trades, 36 staked, realised +0, open +2 if held / +2 if sold.

3 catch-alls faded for 36 mana; realised +0 on 0 settled. This module touches exactly one answer per market, so unlike its sibling mc-indep it cannot accidentally take a dozen correlated positions in one market.
Traces are diagnostic and rotate; the trading journal is the book above. Built 2026-09-22 18:27Z.