The mirror of whale‑fade: a single bet that shoves a binary market down 0.15+ is on average overconfident, and this module buys 25 YES against it on the same reaction race. Measured +6.98/event in the 2026 era (n=753, CI [+2.97, +11.19]) on the resolution replay; its own book so the number stays visible.
No decisions traced by this version.
| utc | version | market | bet | result | why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-18 21:46 | v88-twin | The probability of "extremely bad outcomes e.g., human extinction" from AGI will be >5% in next survey of AI e | YES 28 | settled -28 | down-fade: single 250-mana NO bet pushed 0.72->0.55; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-18 21:01 | v88-twin | Will the WTI Crude Oil Spot Price be above $102 on September 24, 2026? | YES 0 | unfilled | down-fade: single 500-mana NO bet pushed 0.50->0.31; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-18 20:55 | v88-twin | hyNPRycASd | YES 0 | unfilled | down-fade (blind, verify after): single 50-mana NO bet pushed 0.28->0.08; market not in cache |
| 09-18 15:12 | v88-twin | will professor jiang get labelled as a anti semite in 2026 | YES 0 | unfilled | down-fade: single 50-mana NO bet pushed 0.60->0.36; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-18 09:46 | v88-twin | Will Nigel Farage face a second Clacton byelection in 2026? | YES 0 | unfilled | down-fade: single 200-mana NO bet pushed 0.60->0.28; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-18 06:19 | v88-twin | Outcome of Sri Lanka vs England T20 series (Sep 2026) | YES 0 | unfilled | down-fade: single 90-mana NO bet pushed 0.30->0.15; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-18 05:59 | v88-twin | 8tgzSNAEpP | YES 0 | unfilled | down-fade (blind, verify after): single 50-mana NO bet pushed 0.24->0.07; market not in cache |
| 09-17 23:40 | v88-twin | Will there be a crewed mission to Jupiter before 2060? | YES 18 | open -1 | down-fade: single 66-mana NO bet pushed 0.61->0.29; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-17 23:39 | v88-twin | Will there be a crewed mission to Jupiter before 2055? | YES 28 | open +3 | down-fade: single 519-mana NO bet pushed 0.45->0.25; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-17 12:52 | v88-twin | LnEzEl5EUq | YES 0 | unfilled | down-fade (blind, verify after): single 50-mana NO bet pushed 0.50->0.31; market not in cache |
| 09-16 20:39 | v88-twin | Will OpenAI broadly release a dedicated Cyber model to Trusted Access users by Sep 30, 2026? | YES 18 | open +1 | down-fade: single 50-mana NO bet pushed 0.68->0.41; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-16 19:24 | v88-twin | 8utRgRcRIy | YES 0 | unfilled | down-fade (blind, verify after): single 450-mana NO bet pushed 0.69->0.21; market not in cache |
| 09-16 16:04 | v88-twin | Will Anthropic be acquired before the end of 2030? | YES 0 | unfilled | down-fade: single 237-mana NO bet pushed 0.20->0.05; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-16 10:39 | v88-twin | 🇪🇺 Will the EU remove Alisher Usmanov from its Russia sanctions list by September 22? | YES 0 | unfilled | down-fade: single 60-mana NO bet pushed 0.41->0.24; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-16 08:18 | v88-twin | 6sI5l5qZqZ | YES 0 | unfilled | down-fade (blind, verify after): single 100-mana NO bet pushed 0.50->0.20; market not in cache |
| 09-16 04:46 | v88-twin | l7y00gsgx1 | YES 0 | unfilled | down-fade (blind, verify after): single 180-mana NO bet pushed 0.35->0.09; market not in cache |
| 09-16 04:26 | v88-twin | oyapnVL3kBXZdKi1mesu | YES 0 | unfilled | down-fade (blind, verify after): single 250-mana NO bet pushed 0.55->0.40; market not in cache |
| 09-16 02:29 | v88-twin | NFL: Will the Kansas City Chiefs enter their Week 5 bye with a 2-2 record? | YES 18 | open -4 | down-fade: single 200-mana NO bet pushed 0.41->0.09; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-15 21:20 | v88-twin | htZpudcnNZ | YES 0 | unfilled | down-fade (blind, verify after): single 50-mana NO bet pushed 0.50->0.31; market not in cache |
| 09-15 19:17 | v88-twin | Will Anthropic be acquired before the end of 2030? | YES 0 | unfilled | down-fade: single 150-mana NO bet pushed 0.28->0.09; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-15 13:37 | v88-twin | Outcome of India vs Afghanistan T20 series (Sep 2026) | YES 0 | unfilled | down-fade: single 50-mana NO bet pushed 0.81->0.18; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-15 13:21 | v88-twin | Will Donald Trump publicly call for a global halt in AI progress before 2028? | YES 0 | unfilled | down-fade: single 200-mana NO bet pushed 0.31->0.14; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-15 07:40 | v88-twin | OpenAI Claims to Solve another Millennium Prize Problem before 2027? | YES 0 | unfilled | down-fade: single 50-mana NO bet pushed 0.53->0.36; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-15 06:30 | v88-twin | Humanoid robot breaks human marathon record before 2027? | YES 0 | unfilled | down-fade: single 100-mana NO bet pushed 0.29->0.13; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-15 03:37 | v88-twin | Will Roon's Tweet about various great minds discussing flops age well by 2027? | YES 18 | open -2 | down-fade: single 1750-mana NO bet pushed 0.46->0.10; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-15 02:59 | v88-twin | Will Waymo give public driverless rides to/from LAX airport by the end of 2026? | YES 28 | open -1 | down-fade: single 750-mana NO bet pushed 0.41->0.21; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-15 02:30 | v88-twin | kFT9SvajCg3TpBPOPvp9 | YES 28 | open -1 | down-fade (blind, verify after): single 400-mana NO bet pushed 0.58->0.39; market not in cache |
| 09-15 02:27 | v88-twin | MDC38ebf3aVwzOhZ4fuC | YES 0 | unfilled | down-fade (blind, verify after): single 80-mana NO bet pushed 0.35->0.20; market not in cache |
| 09-15 02:22 | v88-twin | If Trump becomes president, will Florida constitutionalize abortion? | YES 0 | unfilled | down-fade: single 230-mana NO bet pushed 0.38->0.20; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-15 00:16 | v88-twin | Will Trump declare a national emergency related to AI? | YES 0 | unfilled | down-fade: single 100-mana NO bet pushed 0.34->0.15; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-15 00:15 | v88-twin | Will Trump declare a national emergency related to AI? | YES 0 | unfilled | down-fade: single 100-mana NO bet pushed 0.39->0.17; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-14 23:47 | v88-twin | OsyNO0P5Sy | YES 18 | open -3 | down-fade (blind, verify after): single 150-mana NO bet pushed 0.42->0.12; market not in cache |
| 09-14 23:12 | v88-twin | Will the Anthropic-Blackstone enterprise AI services firm name its first customer by Sept 30, 2026? | YES 0 | unfilled | down-fade: single 50-mana NO bet pushed 0.92->0.52; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-14 22:06 | v88-twin | Mod queue empty by end Sept? | YES 0 | unfilled | down-fade: single 75-mana NO bet pushed 0.35->0.18; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-14 21:30 | v88-twin | a7vO2bpLAC7qDFn9K9Af | YES 0 | unfilled | down-fade (blind, verify after): single 50-mana NO bet pushed 0.85->0.43; market not in cache |
| 09-14 20:13 | v88-twin | Will Kamala Harris and Gavin Newsom be the two frontrunners for the 2028 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | YES 0 | unfilled | down-fade: single 100-mana NO bet pushed 0.37->0.16; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-14 19:47 | v88-twin | 5gLqZ9hdIp | YES 18 | settled -18 | down-fade (blind, verify after): single 2000-mana NO bet pushed 0.50->0.10; market not in cache |
| 09-14 16:14 | v88-twin | Will US BIS announce a new export control update affecting AI accelerators before 2026-09-30? | YES 0 | unfilled | down-fade: single 50-mana NO bet pushed 0.67->0.44; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-14 09:13 | v88-twin | rm00b4hi5e | YES 0 | unfilled | down-fade (blind, verify after): single 404-mana NO bet pushed 0.48->0.32; market not in cache |
| 09-14 08:16 | v88-twin | Did OpenAI just solve hodge?? | YES 28 | open +18 | down-fade: single 200-mana NO bet pushed 0.31->0.08; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-14 04:31 | v88-twin | Did OpenAI just solve hodge?? | YES 0 | unfilled | down-fade: single 55-mana NO bet pushed 0.47->0.28; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-13 22:31 | v88-twin | In December of 2026, will Wikipedia ascribe higher credence to the lab leak theory than it did in December of | YES 28 | open -3 | down-fade: single 1000-mana NO bet pushed 0.37->0.18; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-13 21:45 | v88-twin | Will a soccer final between Spain and Argentina be repeated before 2027? | YES 0 | unfilled | down-fade: single 75-mana NO bet pushed 0.48->0.22; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-13 19:27 | v88-twin | Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2030? | YES 10 | settled +3 | down-fade: single 750-mana NO bet pushed 0.98->0.77; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-13 17:48 | v88-twin | Alcoa Australia 2026 alumina production exceeds 6.0 Mt (6,000 kt) | YES 28 | open -0 | down-fade: single 300-mana NO bet pushed 0.87->0.68; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-13 17:36 | v88-twin | Will Alcoa Corporation's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 2.6 million tonnes? | YES 28 | open +2 | down-fade: single 2500-mana NO bet pushed 0.77->0.61; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-13 16:19 | v88-twin | Will The Odyssey gross more than Spider-Man: Brand New Day at the domestic box office this weekend (Sept 11–13 | YES 28 | settled +140 | down-fade: single 1700-mana NO bet pushed 0.26->0.08; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-13 04:35 | v88-twin | Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2030? | YES 28 | settled +9 | down-fade: single 350-mana NO bet pushed 0.93->0.71; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-12 18:58 | v88-twin | Will Russia control at least 85% of the four annexed oblasts at the end of October 2026? | YES 28 | open -4 | down-fade: single 1000-mana NO bet pushed 0.39->0.16; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-12 17:07 | v88-twin | Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2030? | YES 18 | settled +14 | down-fade: single 500-mana NO bet pushed 0.86->0.55; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-12 15:14 | v88-twin | CcAIzgUqu2 | YES 28 | open -4 | down-fade (blind, verify after): single 450-mana NO bet pushed 0.50->0.32; market not in cache |
| 09-12 13:11 | v88-twin | Will 007 First Light be nominated for Game of the Year at the Game Awards? (James Bond game from IO Studios) | YES 0 | unfilled | down-fade: single 100-mana NO bet pushed 0.86->0.34; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-12 10:26 | v88-twin | 🇺🇸 Will the Fed raise interest rates in September 2026? | YES 28 | settled +8 | down-fade: single 50-mana NO bet pushed 0.86->0.69; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-12 07:50 | v88-twin | Will Merz be German chancellor on Jan 1, 2027? | YES 0 | unfilled | down-fade: single 50-mana NO bet pushed 0.83->0.62; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-12 06:31 | v88-twin | su6n5h6AZS | YES 18 | settled +36 | down-fade (blind, verify after): single 174-mana NO bet pushed 0.71->0.33; market not in cache |
| 09-12 04:38 | v88-twin | Will Syrah Vidalia 6-month AAM production exceed 3000 t for the period ending June 2026? | YES 0 | unfilled | down-fade: single 200-mana NO bet pushed 0.30->0.07; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-12 04:38 | v88-twin | Will Syrah Vidalia 6-month AAM production exceed 5500 t for the period ending June 2026? | YES 0 | unfilled | down-fade: single 200-mana NO bet pushed 0.31->0.08; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-12 01:47 | v88-twin | OUt9ORU1CsV1WpxB8Aek | YES 100 | open +57 | down-fade (blind, verify after): single 500-mana NO bet pushed 0.87->0.14; market not in cache |
| 09-11 20:36 | v88-twin | SIuc6aDaVUMC5u13leET | YES 0 | unfilled | down-fade (blind, verify after): single 500-mana NO bet pushed 0.41->0.24; market not in cache |
| 09-11 18:53 | v88-twin | Janja Garnbret climbs Burden of Dreams by 23 October 2026? | YES 0 | unfilled | down-fade: single 259-mana NO bet pushed 0.31->0.12; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-11 18:51 | v88-twin | 🇺🇸 Will the Fed raise interest rates in September 2026? | YES 0 | unfilled | down-fade: single 50-mana NO bet pushed 0.81->0.64; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-11 16:14 | v88-twin | Google model beats Anthropic on LMArena by EOY26 | YES 0 | unfilled | down-fade: single 130-mana NO bet pushed 0.43->0.14; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-11 16:05 | v88-twin | Will an AI solve a Millennium problem by EOY 2027? | YES 0 | unfilled | down-fade: single 300-mana NO bet pushed 0.96->0.80; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-11 12:01 | v88-twin | eXxEW9TUbR7cB5jEwMCD | YES 0 | unfilled | down-fade (blind, verify after): single 250-mana NO bet pushed 0.26->0.10; market not in cache |
| 09-11 03:08 | v88-twin | Will The Odyssey gross more than Spider-Man: Brand New Day at the domestic box office this weekend (Sept 11–13 | YES 0 | unfilled | down-fade: single 347-mana NO bet pushed 0.52->0.37; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-11 01:34 | v88-twin | Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2031? | YES 0 | unfilled | down-fade: single 81-mana NO bet pushed 0.90->0.63; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-11 01:31 | v88-twin | Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2031? | YES 28 | open -12 | down-fade: single 89-mana NO bet pushed 0.61->0.45; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-10 23:12 | v88-twin | PO5OBxubHj2GxUhgllFO | YES 0 | unfilled | down-fade (blind, verify after): single 50-mana NO bet pushed 0.69->0.52; market not in cache |
| 09-10 20:56 | v88-twin | Will the Bay Area transit funding measure pass in November | YES 28 | open +7 | down-fade: single 81-mana NO bet pushed 0.74->0.50; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-10 20:51 | v88-twin | hRAP9Rn258 | YES 18 | open -1 | down-fade (blind, verify after): single 50-mana NO bet pushed 0.70->0.43; market not in cache |
| 09-10 19:49 | v88-twin | JjmS1Pr6bD34UZoFOtD3 | YES 0 | unfilled | down-fade (blind, verify after): single 96-mana NO bet pushed 0.28->0.11; market not in cache |
| 09-10 18:16 | v88-twin | Sen. Fetterman leaves Democratic Party before 2028 election? | YES 0 | unfilled | down-fade: single 1000-mana NO bet pushed 0.41->0.25; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-10 13:47 | v88-twin | Will Democrats control both the House and the Senate after the 2026 midterms? | YES 0 | unfilled | down-fade: single 50-mana NO bet pushed 0.53->0.36; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-10 01:51 | v88-twin | Will The Legend of Zelda movie release on or before April 30, 2027? | YES 0 | unfilled | down-fade: single 100-mana NO bet pushed 0.79->0.30; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-10 01:22 | v88-twin | Sen. Fetterman leaves Democratic Party before 2028 election? | YES 28 | open +3 | down-fade: single 500-mana NO bet pushed 0.52->0.32; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-09 18:05 | v88-twin | Will Manifold have automated resolutions before 2027? | YES 28 | open -4 | down-fade: single 450-mana NO bet pushed 0.53->0.34; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-09 17:27 | v88-twin | 6uSaSXtJbzrS2HoqVaIA | YES 0 | unfilled | down-fade (blind, verify after): single 50-mana NO bet pushed 0.80->0.59; market not in cache |
| 09-09 13:55 | v88-twin | Will YES have fewer holders than NO? (24hr quick fuse) | YES 10 | settled +3 | down-fade: single 50-mana NO bet pushed 0.64->0.39; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-09 13:36 | v88-twin | First foldable iPhone costs more than $2000? | YES 0 | unfilled | down-fade: single 50-mana NO bet pushed 0.53->0.32; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-09 13:35 | v88-twin | First foldable iPhone costs more than $2000? | YES 18 | settled -18 | down-fade: single 50-mana NO bet pushed 0.83->0.53; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
Showing the newest 80 of 133 trades.
133 trades, 1,728 staked, realised +82, open +488 if held / +136 if sold, 74 unfilled.
Judge this module at resolution, like the replay that justified it; the race column says whether the entry price was still worth having. Traces are diagnostic and rotate; the trading journal is separate. Built 2026-09-22 18:22Z.