mc‑indep

module 1.0 · v88-twin ← trader

A multiple-choice market lists its answers at about 0.50 each, and answers that resolve independently come in nearer 38%. So this module buys NO across the answers of a brand-new market, up to 150 mana per market. The bet is per answer, which is exactly where the risk hides: a market's answers are often settled by one event on one day, and then a dozen small bets are one big bet wearing a dozen costumes.

Markets it bet, and how many answers each took

On which dates will OpenAI Reset Limits?39 answers · 70 mana · v88-twin
Sep 70.50Sep 80.50Sep 90.50Sep 100.50Sep 110.50Sep 120.50Sep 130.50Sep 140.50Sep 150.50Sep 160.50Sep 170.50Sep 180.50Sep 190.50Sep 200.50Sep 210.50Sep 220.50Sep 230.50Sep 240.50Sep 250.50Sep 260.50Sep 270.50Sep 280.50Sep 290.50Sep 300.50Oct 10.50Oct 20.50
What results will happen during Week 2 of the 2026 College Football Season?38 answers · 124 mana · v88-twin
Miami defeats Florida A&0.50Louisville defeats Villa0.50Virginia defeats Norfolk0.50NC State defeats Richmon0.50Boston College defeats R0.50Missouri defeats Kansas0.50Oregon defeats Oklahoma 0.50Indiana defeats Howard0.50Texas A&M defeats Arizon0.50Oklahoma defeats Michiga0.50Penn State defeats Templ0.50Kansas State defeats Was0.50North Carolina defeats E0.50Virginia Tech defeats Ol0.50Wake Forest defeats Purd0.50Army defeats South Flori0.50East Carolina defeats Ap0.50Kent State defeats Woffo0.50Georgia defeats Western 0.50West Virginia defeats UT0.50Central Michigan defeats0.50Miami (OH) defeats Holy 0.50Ball State defeats Stony0.50Notre Dame defeats Rice0.50Alabama defeats Kentucky0.50BYU defeats Arizona0.50
What results will happen during Week 3 of the 2026 College Football Season?38 answers · 124 mana · v88-twin
Pittsburgh defeats Syrac0.50Miami (FL) defeats Wake 0.50Texas Tech defeats Houst0.50Oregon defeats Portland 0.50Delaware defeats Coastal0.50Ohio State defeats Kent 0.50Georgia defeats Arkansas0.50Penn State defeats Buffa0.50Kansas State defeats Tul0.50Iowa State defeats Bowli0.50Arizona State defeats Ka0.50Georgia Tech defeats Mer0.50Clemson defeats North Ca0.50Minnesota defeats Akron0.50Texas State defeats Nort0.50Wisconsin defeats Easter0.50Vanderbilt defeats NC St0.50Wyoming defeats Central 0.50Boston College defeats M0.50Illinois defeats Souther0.50Toledo defeats Temple0.50Texas A&M defeats Kentuc0.50Alabama defeats Florida 0.50USC defeats Rutgers0.50Louisville defeats SMU0.50Utah defeats Utah State0.50
Who will be the winners of Manifold Prize Drawing #3120 answers · 66 mana · v88-twin
@Yuna0.50@JasonMendoza20080.50@ChristopherRandles0.50@konstantin0.50@Stralor0.50@2560.50@DottedCalculator0.50@NotoriousLimit0.50@imonarcelbryan0.50@Mochi0.50@Mvem0.50@Jack10.50@Cy0.50@EricSpamer0.50@MarginalUtility0.50@ChaosDirector0.50@Taison0.50@Yoae0.50@Felle0.50@BenBako0.50
🥈 Fun With Silver: The Monthly Shopping Cart.11 answers · 0 mana · v88-twin
Will Silver’s final mont0.50Will Silver’s final mont0.50Will one troy ounce of S0.50Will one troy ounce of S0.50Will one troy ounce of S0.50Will one troy ounce of S0.50Will one troy ounce of S0.50Will one troy ounce of S0.50Will one troy ounce of S0.50Will one troy ounce of S0.50Will Silvers gain buying0.50
Which races in 2026 will CNN have exit polls for?11 answers · 24 mana · v88-twin
Texas Senate0.50Maine Senate0.50North Carolina Senate0.50Georgia senate0.50Alaska senate0.50Kansas senate0.50National Us House vote0.50Michigan senate0.50Texas Governor0.50New Hampshire senate0.50florida Governor0.50
who be the new operations contributors at hack club?11 answers · 3 mana · v88-twin
lynn (headpatsyou)0.50aryan0.50colin0.50ari0.50pianoman0.50aarav j0.50raygen0.50tom0.50rowan0.50sahil0.50stelle0.50
Which women's tennis players will reach the 2026 U.S. Open Semifinals?10 answers · 14 mana · v88-twin
🇺🇸 C. Gauff0.50🇺🇸 J. Pegula0.50🇰🇿 E. Rybakina0.50🇵🇱 I. Swiatek0.50🇺🇦 E. Svitolina0.50🇷🇺 M. Andreeva0.50🇺🇦 M. Kostyuk0.50🇨🇿 K. Muchova0.50🇵🇭 A. Eala0.50🇷🇴 S. Cirstea0.50
Taylor Swift @ Kansas City Chiefs Game Tracker10 answers · 1 mana · v88-twin
Week 1: KC vs. Denver Br0.50Week 2: KC vs. Indianapo0.50Week 3: KC @ Miami Dolph0.50Week 4: KC @ Las Vegas R0.50Week 6: KC vs. Los Angel0.50Week 7: KC @ Seattle Sea0.50Week 8: KC @ Denver Bron0.50Week 9: KC vs. New York 0.50Week 10: KC @ Atlanta Fa0.50Week 11: KC vs. Arizona 0.50
Claude 6 (Anthropic) release date9 answers · 0 mana · v88-twin
Before November 20260.50Before December 20260.50Before January 20270.50Before February 20270.50Before March 20270.50Before April 20270.50Before May 20270.50Before June 20270.50Before July 20270.50
VALORANT Champions Shanghai (2026) Mega-Market9 answers · 8 mana · v88-twin
[C OP] Team Liquid beats0.50[C OP] TYLOO beats G2 Es0.50[D OP] Nongshim RedForce0.50[D OP] Karmine Corp beat0.50[B OP] Global Esports be0.50[B OP] LOUD beats EDward0.50[A OP] 100 Thieves beats0.50[A OP] JD Gaming beats F0.50[GF] [UBF Winner] beats 0.50
Senate and House Call of the House prop bets.9 answers · 0 mana · v88-twin
Subsequent to Call of th0.50Subsequent to Call of th0.50Subsequent to Call of th0.50A Call of the House will0.50A Call of the Senate wil0.50Neither a Call of the Ho0.50For not attending Senato0.50Subsequent to Call of th0.50For not attending member0.50
Claude Fable 5.2+ (Anthropic) release date8 answers · 0 mana · v88-twin
Before 2026-11-010.50Before 2026-11-160.50Before 2026-12-010.50Before 2026-12-160.50Before 2027-01-010.50Before 2027-01-160.50Before 2027-02-010.50Before 2027-02-160.50
Which democrats will be leading in the Big Data Senate Polls?8 answers · 17 mana · v88-twin
Jon Ossoff- georgia0.50Josh Turek- iowa0.50Sherrod brown - ohio0.50Troy Jackson - maine0.50Abdul el Sayed- michigan0.50Peggy Flanagan - Minneso0.50Roy cooper - north carol0.50James Talarico - Texas0.50

A market marked in warning colour took six or more answers. Read those as a single position: the per-market cap limits the stake, not the number of ways one event can decide it. Each chip is one answer at the price it opened; the card's tail names the version that placed the bets.

Where candidates died · 0 markets judged

Nothing judged yet.

The book · v88-twin

utcversionmarketbetresultwhy
09-18 21:01v88-twinSenate and House Call of the House prop bets. :: Subsequent to Call of the House, house member(s) flee D. C. NO 0unfilledindependent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.391 for this type; open 0.50
09-18 21:01v88-twinSenate and House Call of the House prop bets. :: A Call of the House will be ordered in the U.S. House of RepNO 0unfilledindependent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.391 for this type; open 0.50
09-18 21:01v88-twinSenate and House Call of the House prop bets. :: A Call of the Senate will be ordered in the U.S. Senate befoNO 0unfilledindependent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.391 for this type; open 0.50
09-18 21:01v88-twinSenate and House Call of the House prop bets. :: Neither a Call of the House nor a Call of the Senate will beNO 0unfilledindependent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.391 for this type; open 0.50
09-18 21:01v88-twinSenate and House Call of the House prop bets. :: For not attending Senator(s) fined, arrested or otherwise saNO 0unfilledindependent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.391 for this type; open 0.50
09-18 21:01v88-twinSenate and House Call of the House prop bets. :: Subsequent to Call of the House, house member(s) flee US By NO 0unfilledindependent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.391 for this type; open 0.50
09-18 21:01v88-twinSenate and House Call of the House prop bets. :: For not attending member(s) of the house fined, arrested or NO 0unfilledindependent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.391 for this type; open 0.50
09-18 21:01v88-twinSenate and House Call of the House prop bets. :: Subsequent to Call of the House, senator(s) flee D. C. By EONO 0unfilledindependent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.391 for this type; open 0.50
09-18 21:01v88-twinSenate and House Call of the House prop bets. :: Subsequent to Call of the House, senator(s) flee US By EOM FNO 0unfilledindependent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.391 for this type; open 0.50
09-17 15:34v88-twinWhat bad things will happen in Russia after elections? [prop bets] :: Reserved 1NO 3open -0independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.369 for this type; open 0.50
09-17 15:34v88-twinWhat bad things will happen in Russia after elections? [prop bets] :: Reserved 2NO 3open -0independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.369 for this type; open 0.50
09-17 15:34v88-twinWhat bad things will happen in Russia after elections? [prop bets] :: Official full mobilizationNO 3open +1independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.369 for this type; open 0.50
09-17 15:34v88-twinWhat bad things will happen in Russia after elections? [prop bets] :: Taking money from bank depositsNO 3open -0independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.369 for this type; open 0.50
09-17 04:57v88-twinWhich democrats will be leading in the Big Data Senate Polls? :: Peggy Flanagan - MinnesotaNO 2open -1independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.391 for this type; open 0.50
09-17 04:57v88-twinWhich democrats will be leading in the Big Data Senate Polls? :: Roy cooper - north carolinaNO 2open -2independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.391 for this type; open 0.50
09-17 04:57v88-twinWhich democrats will be leading in the Big Data Senate Polls? :: James Talarico - TexasNO 2open -1independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.391 for this type; open 0.50
09-17 04:57v88-twinWhich democrats will be leading in the Big Data Senate Polls? :: Sherrod brown - ohioNO 2open -1independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.391 for this type; open 0.50
09-17 04:57v88-twinWhich democrats will be leading in the Big Data Senate Polls? :: Troy Jackson - maineNO 2open -1independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.391 for this type; open 0.50
09-17 04:57v88-twinWhich democrats will be leading in the Big Data Senate Polls? :: Abdul el Sayed- michiganNO 2open -1independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.391 for this type; open 0.50
09-17 04:57v88-twinWhich democrats will be leading in the Big Data Senate Polls? :: Jon Ossoff- georgiaNO 2open -2independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.391 for this type; open 0.50
09-17 04:57v88-twinWhich democrats will be leading in the Big Data Senate Polls? :: Josh Turek- iowaNO 2open -0independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.391 for this type; open 0.50
09-17 04:01v88-twinSeptember 2026 Trump-Xi Summit props :: Trump or Xi publicly warn of extinction risks from advanced NO 0unfilledindependent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.391 for this type; open 0.50
09-17 04:01v88-twinSeptember 2026 Trump-Xi Summit props :: The US and China announce a new bilateral mechanism for manaNO 0unfilledindependent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.391 for this type; open 0.50
09-17 04:01v88-twinSeptember 2026 Trump-Xi Summit props :: Anthropic executive attend the SummitNO 0unfilledindependent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.391 for this type; open 0.50
09-17 04:01v88-twinSeptember 2026 Trump-Xi Summit props :: The US materially eases advanced-AI chip restrictions on ChiNO 0unfilledindependent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.391 for this type; open 0.50
09-16 21:06v88-twinPodium Sitters of WRC Rally Italia Sardegna 2026 :: Sami PajariNO 0unfilledindependent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-16 21:06v88-twinPodium Sitters of WRC Rally Italia Sardegna 2026 :: Oliver SolbergNO 0unfilledindependent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-16 21:06v88-twinPodium Sitters of WRC Rally Italia Sardegna 2026 :: Takamoto KatsutaNO 0unfilledindependent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-16 21:06v88-twinPodium Sitters of WRC Rally Italia Sardegna 2026 :: Adrien FourmauxNO 0unfilledindependent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-16 21:06v88-twinPodium Sitters of WRC Rally Italia Sardegna 2026 :: Sébastien OgierNO 0unfilledindependent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-16 21:06v88-twinPodium Sitters of WRC Rally Italia Sardegna 2026 :: Thierry NeuvilleNO 0unfilledindependent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-16 21:06v88-twinPodium Sitters of WRC Rally Italia Sardegna 2026 :: Elfyn EvansNO 0unfilledindependent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-16 19:39v88-twinWho will be the winners of Manifold Prize Drawing #31 :: @YoaeNO 3open +2independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-16 19:39v88-twinWho will be the winners of Manifold Prize Drawing #31 :: @FelleNO 3open +2independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-16 19:39v88-twinWho will be the winners of Manifold Prize Drawing #31 :: @BenBakoNO 3open +2independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-16 19:39v88-twinWho will be the winners of Manifold Prize Drawing #31 :: @MarginalUtilityNO 3open +2independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-16 19:39v88-twinWho will be the winners of Manifold Prize Drawing #31 :: @ChaosDirectorNO 3open +2independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-16 19:39v88-twinWho will be the winners of Manifold Prize Drawing #31 :: @TaisonNO 3open +2independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-16 19:39v88-twinWho will be the winners of Manifold Prize Drawing #31 :: @Jack1NO 3open +2independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-16 19:39v88-twinWho will be the winners of Manifold Prize Drawing #31 :: @CyNO 3open +2independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-16 19:39v88-twinWho will be the winners of Manifold Prize Drawing #31 :: @EricSpamerNO 3open +2independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-16 19:39v88-twinWho will be the winners of Manifold Prize Drawing #31 :: @imonarcelbryanNO 3open +2independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-16 19:39v88-twinWho will be the winners of Manifold Prize Drawing #31 :: @MochiNO 3open +2independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-16 19:39v88-twinWho will be the winners of Manifold Prize Drawing #31 :: @MvemNO 3open +2independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-16 19:39v88-twinWho will be the winners of Manifold Prize Drawing #31 :: @256NO 3open +1independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-16 19:39v88-twinWho will be the winners of Manifold Prize Drawing #31 :: @DottedCalculatorNO 3open +1independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-16 19:39v88-twinWho will be the winners of Manifold Prize Drawing #31 :: @NotoriousLimitNO 3open +1independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-16 19:39v88-twinWho will be the winners of Manifold Prize Drawing #31 :: @ChristopherRandlesNO 3open -0independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-16 19:39v88-twinWho will be the winners of Manifold Prize Drawing #31 :: @konstantinNO 3open +1independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-16 19:39v88-twinWho will be the winners of Manifold Prize Drawing #31 :: @StralorNO 3open +1independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-16 19:39v88-twinWho will be the winners of Manifold Prize Drawing #31 :: @YunaNO 3open -2independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-16 19:39v88-twinWho will be the winners of Manifold Prize Drawing #31 :: @JasonMendoza2008NO 3open -2independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-16 17:18v88-twinwho be the new operations contributors at hack club? :: stelleNO 0unfilledindependent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-16 17:18v88-twinwho be the new operations contributors at hack club? :: pianomanNO 0unfilledindependent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-16 17:18v88-twinwho be the new operations contributors at hack club? :: aarav jNO 0unfilledindependent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-16 17:18v88-twinwho be the new operations contributors at hack club? :: raygenNO 0unfilledindependent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-16 17:18v88-twinwho be the new operations contributors at hack club? :: tomNO 0unfilledindependent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-16 17:18v88-twinwho be the new operations contributors at hack club? :: rowanNO 0unfilledindependent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-16 17:18v88-twinwho be the new operations contributors at hack club? :: sahilNO 0unfilledindependent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-16 17:18v88-twinwho be the new operations contributors at hack club? :: lynn (headpatsyou)NO 3settled +3independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-16 17:18v88-twinwho be the new operations contributors at hack club? :: aryanNO 0unfilledindependent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-16 17:18v88-twinwho be the new operations contributors at hack club? :: colinNO 0unfilledindependent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-16 17:18v88-twinwho be the new operations contributors at hack club? :: ariNO 0unfilledindependent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-16 14:16v88-twinWho will be the Contestants for Nash Pit: The Overhang 2026? :: The show fails to fire, and nobody becomes a CNO 0unfilledindependent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-16 14:16v88-twinWho will be the Contestants for Nash Pit: The Overhang 2026? :: Somehow, somebody not listed becomes a ContestNO 0unfilledindependent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-16 14:16v88-twinWho will be the Contestants for Nash Pit: The Overhang 2026? :: Somehow, somebody not listed becomes another CNO 0unfilledindependent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-15 21:24v88-twinWill UK job vacancies increase? :: October 2026NO 3open +0independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-15 21:24v88-twinWill UK job vacancies increase? :: November 2026NO 0unfilledindependent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-15 21:24v88-twinWill UK job vacancies increase? :: December 2026NO 0unfilledindependent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-15 21:24v88-twinWill UK job vacancies increase? :: January 2027NO 0unfilledindependent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-15 19:48v88-twinWho of the unstable SMP will post this week? :: WembuNO 3open -3independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-15 19:48v88-twinWho of the unstable SMP will post this week? :: FlamefragsNO 3open +3independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-15 19:48v88-twinWho of the unstable SMP will post this week? :: SpokeNO 3open +3independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-15 19:48v88-twinWho of the unstable SMP will post this week? :: ParrotNO 3open -0independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-15 05:47v88-twinTest :: XNO 15cancelledindependent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-13 23:57v88-twinWhich races in 2026 will CNN have exit polls for? :: Texas GovernorNO 2open +0independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.391 for this type; open 0.50
09-13 23:57v88-twinWhich races in 2026 will CNN have exit polls for? :: New Hampshire senateNO 2open +0independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.391 for this type; open 0.50
09-13 23:57v88-twinWhich races in 2026 will CNN have exit polls for? :: florida GovernorNO 2open +0independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.391 for this type; open 0.50
09-13 23:57v88-twinWhich races in 2026 will CNN have exit polls for? :: Kansas senateNO 2open +1independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.391 for this type; open 0.50
09-13 23:57v88-twinWhich races in 2026 will CNN have exit polls for? :: National Us House voteNO 2open -1independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.391 for this type; open 0.50

Showing the newest 80 of 298 trades.

298 trades, 747 staked, realised -179, open +93 if held / +86 if sold, 92 unfilled.

298 answer-bets across 30 markets for 747 mana; realised -179 on 91 settled. Largest single market: 39 answers.
Traces are diagnostic and rotate; the trading journal is the book above. Built 2026-09-22 18:22Z.