Someone drops a big YES bet and shoves a market upward. On average that is overconfidence rather than news, so this module buys the other side. It only counts as a whale above 50 mana and a 10% shove, it stakes 25 and holds at most 50 per market — so it turns almost everything down. This page is mostly a record of what it turned down.
No whale-sized bets seen yet. Every bet on the venue is checked; this fills when one is big enough to matter.
| market type | fades | staked | realised | open, if held | open, if sold | mana / fade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| binary | 124 | 4,455 | -167.5 (19 settled) | +1,184.9 | +470.9 | +8.20 |
| multiple choice, independent | off in this version | |||||
| multiple choice, one winner | off in this version | |||||
| utc | version | market | bet | result | why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-19 12:21 | v88-twin | Current mod loses role by end Sept? | NO 0 | unfilled | fade: single 50-mana YES bet pushed 0.45->0.66; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-19 09:26 | v88-twin | Will AGI be achieved in the next 5 years? | NO 45 | open -22 | fade: single 1000-mana YES bet pushed 0.55->0.86; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-19 08:15 | v88-twin | Will the Resident Evil movie make over 30 million dollars at the Japanese box office? | NO 0 | unfilled | fade: single 50-mana YES bet pushed 0.55->0.72; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-19 08:15 | v88-twin | Will the Resident Evil movie make over 8 million dollars at the Japanese box office? (AKA the Biohazard movie) | NO 0 | unfilled | fade: single 50-mana YES bet pushed 0.60->0.75; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-19 01:10 | v88-twin | Will Google Gemini hack a company during testing before the next Gemini Pro model gets released? | NO 0 | unfilled | fade: single 100-mana YES bet pushed 0.53->0.73; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-18 23:57 | v88-twin | Will Trump interfere with Greenland? | NO 0 | unfilled | fade: single 50-mana YES bet pushed 0.26->0.42; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-18 23:52 | v88-twin | Will Google Gemini hack a company during testing before the next Gemini Pro model gets released? | NO 45 | settled -45 | fade: single 75-mana YES bet pushed 0.17->0.53; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-18 23:40 | v88-twin | Will there be a new contender on Felony Bench by end of 2026? | NO 0 | unfilled | fade: single 500-mana YES bet pushed 0.62->0.76; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-18 21:44 | v88-twin | Will Russia invade any NATO country before 31 December 2026? | NO 0 | unfilled | fade: single 300-mana YES bet pushed 0.10->0.22; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-18 19:43 | v88-twin | Will SPCX close at $150.00 or higher on Friday, September 18, 2026? (corrected close time) | NO 0 | unfilled | fade: single 200-mana YES bet pushed 0.79->0.93; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-18 18:21 | v88-twin | Will Claude Code support the .agents/skills/ standard before 2027? | NO 45 | open +3 | fade: single 500-mana YES bet pushed 0.28->0.56; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-18 18:04 | v88-twin | Hegseth, Patel, or RFK is out within the next 90 days | NO 0 | unfilled | fade: single 200-mana YES bet pushed 0.10->0.23; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-18 18:00 | v88-twin | Will the leader of a nonwestern nuclear power make an extremely ASI-pilled public statement before 2031? | NO 0 | unfilled | fade: single 500-mana YES bet pushed 0.65->0.78; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-18 17:33 | v88-twin | dmwDjVqaVtqdCuhOqJSW | NO 0 | unfilled | fade (blind, verify after): single 50-mana YES bet pushed 0.33->0.52; market not in cache |
| 09-18 17:00 | v88-twin | Will Tottenham Hotspur score a goal in their next Premier League fixture? | NO 0 | unfilled | fade: single 70-mana YES bet pushed 0.72->0.84; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-18 10:31 | v88-twin | 🇷🇸 Will the SNS-led list win an outright majority (126+ of 250 seats) in Serbia's 25 October 2026 election? | NO 0 | unfilled | fade: single 50-mana YES bet pushed 0.25->0.60; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-18 09:23 | v88-twin | Will Xi Jinping visit the US in 2026? | NO 0 | unfilled | fade: single 50-mana YES bet pushed 0.77->0.87; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-18 02:20 | v88-twin | Will Lauren Boebert be re-elected to the House in 2026? | NO 0 | unfilled | fade: single 150-mana YES bet pushed 0.42->0.54; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-17 22:49 | v88-twin | IcIlttzIuC | NO 0 | unfilled | fade (blind, verify after): single 200-mana YES bet pushed 0.17->0.30; market not in cache |
| 09-17 20:55 | v88-twin | Will a community college win top 5 at the 2026 Putnam? | NO 115 | open +245 | fade: single 250-mana YES bet pushed 0.14->0.28; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-17 17:22 | v88-twin | E6A6gylOZq | NO 0 | unfilled | fade (blind, verify after): single 155-mana YES bet pushed 0.67->0.93; market not in cache |
| 09-17 16:04 | v88-twin | In her next campaign for elected office, will Alexandra Ocasio Cortez win the sought political position? | NO 0 | unfilled | fade: single 106-mana YES bet pushed 0.77->0.89; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-17 15:34 | v88-twin | Will AI beat top Magic the Gathering human player before the end of 2028? | NO 45 | open -4 | fade: single 500-mana YES bet pushed 0.33->0.60; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-17 14:16 | v88-twin | ICE agent murdered on duty by end of 2026? | NO 85 | open +87 | fade: single 50-mana YES bet pushed 0.19->0.40; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-17 13:58 | v88-twin | 6u65R55dSp | NO 0 | unfilled | fade (blind, verify after): single 300-mana YES bet pushed 0.63->0.84; market not in cache |
| 09-17 12:25 | v88-twin | nQkjB8H7xxTiZoBG8eQZ | NO 0 | unfilled | fade (blind, verify after): single 300-mana YES bet pushed 0.37->0.56; market not in cache |
| 09-17 12:24 | v88-twin | Will there be an armed conflict between Russia and the European Economic Area before 1 January 2028? | NO 0 | unfilled | fade: single 120-mana YES bet pushed 0.26->0.76; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-17 05:03 | v88-twin | Democrats win Texas and Alaska US Senate Election? | NO 0 | unfilled | fade: single 75-mana YES bet pushed 0.40->0.70; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-17 04:22 | v88-twin | Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2026? | NO 0 | unfilled | fade: single 1250-mana YES bet pushed 0.80->0.91; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-17 02:41 | v88-twin | ygIt5tgygp | NO 0 | unfilled | fade (blind, verify after): single 64-mana YES bet pushed 0.69->0.82; market not in cache |
| 09-17 00:57 | v88-twin | US Average Gas Price Is $4.4500 or more on September 21 2026? | NO 45 | settled -45 | fade: single 2250-mana YES bet pushed 0.55->0.92; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-16 23:53 | v88-twin | Will a millennium problem be solved in 2027? | NO 0 | unfilled | fade: single 50-mana YES bet pushed 0.27->0.49; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-16 22:28 | v88-twin | Will OpenAI broadly release a dedicated Cyber model to Trusted Access users by Sep 30, 2026? | NO 0 | unfilled | fade: single 100-mana YES bet pushed 0.41->0.78; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-16 22:10 | v88-twin | Opus 5.2 released in September? | NO 85 | settled +181 | fade: single 250-mana YES bet pushed 0.16->0.32; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-16 19:24 | v88-twin | 8utRgRcRIy | NO 85 | open +43 | fade (blind, verify after): single 100-mana YES bet pushed 0.24->0.45; market not in cache |
| 09-16 18:12 | v88-twin | Will the first Atlantic hurricane of 2026 form before October 1? | NO 0 | unfilled | fade: single 100-mana YES bet pushed 0.30->0.75; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-16 18:12 | v88-twin | Will a hurricane make landfall in the continental U.S. before October 1, 2026? | NO 90 | open +285 | fade: single 60-mana YES bet pushed 0.09->0.44; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-16 13:56 | v88-twin | SpaceX closes at $150.00 or higher on Friday 18 September 2026? | NO 0 | unfilled | fade: single 250-mana YES bet pushed 0.22->0.38; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-16 13:15 | v88-twin | Will Grand Theft Auto 6 make more than $1.2 billion within 24 hours of it's release? | NO 0 | unfilled | fade: single 100-mana YES bet pushed 0.68->0.82; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-16 11:05 | v88-twin | 8UEgU5duUl | NO 45 | open +27 | fade (blind, verify after): single 50-mana YES bet pushed 0.23->0.52; market not in cache |
| 09-16 09:26 | v88-twin | US Average Gas Price Is $4.400 or more on September 21 2026? | NO 0 | unfilled | fade: single 2000-mana YES bet pushed 0.77->0.94; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-16 06:49 | v88-twin | Will OpenAI release a new model before October? | NO 0 | unfilled | fade: single 60-mana YES bet pushed 0.71->0.82; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-16 05:17 | v88-twin | CuddNI5uyd | NO 0 | unfilled | fade (blind, verify after): single 100-mana YES bet pushed 0.66->0.85; market not in cache |
| 09-16 04:33 | v88-twin | SJLSUSGDB9tdndCMZ095 | NO 0 | unfilled | fade (blind, verify after): single 250-mana YES bet pushed 0.42->0.55; market not in cache |
| 09-16 04:01 | v88-twin | Will Anthropic buy >1GW of capacity from Australian data centres by EOY 2027? | NO 45 | settled -45 | fade: single 1500-mana YES bet pushed 0.64->0.89; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-16 01:26 | v88-twin | Will Roon's Tweet about various great minds discussing flops age well by 2027? | NO 0 | unfilled | fade: single 200-mana YES bet pushed 0.09->0.21; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-16 00:09 | v88-twin | Will The Odyssey have a higher domestic PTA than Spider-Man on every remaining Tuesday in September? | NO 85 | open -68 | fade: single 700-mana YES bet pushed 0.59->0.78; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-15 22:23 | v88-twin | Will 0x876611867717dE6b6dff30da5CeF9feB620eE1ea REACH more than 100.00 USDC Base by September 21th 11:59 pm UT | NO 0 | unfilled | fade: single 250-mana YES bet pushed 0.37->0.47; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-15 21:34 | v88-twin | st6lINCSpP | NO 45 | open +151 | fade (blind, verify after): single 60-mana YES bet pushed 0.05->0.30; market not in cache |
| 09-15 20:44 | v88-twin | lq8LysSQ5q | NO 85 | open -7 | fade (blind, verify after): single 50-mana YES bet pushed 0.50->0.69; market not in cache |
| 09-15 19:27 | v88-twin | Will Lula win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | NO 0 | unfilled | fade: single 150-mana YES bet pushed 0.33->0.45; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-15 13:23 | v88-twin | Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Michigan? | NO 0 | unfilled | fade: single 100-mana YES bet pushed 0.63->0.84; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-15 11:55 | v88-twin | Will The Odyssey gross more than Spider-Man: Brand New Day at the domestic box office this weekend (Sept 18–20 | NO 0 | unfilled | fade: single 250-mana YES bet pushed 0.45->0.57; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-15 09:32 | v88-twin | Will Google release a higher-quality successor to Nano Banana Pro before November? | NO 0 | unfilled | fade: single 50-mana YES bet pushed 0.44->0.66; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-15 05:53 | v88-twin | US Average DIESEL Price Is $6.000 or more on Election Day 2026? | NO 0 | unfilled | fade: single 281-mana YES bet pushed 0.54->0.65; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-15 04:38 | v88-twin | Will Tesla merge with or be acquired by SpaceX before 2028? | NO 0 | unfilled | fade: single 200-mana YES bet pushed 0.41->0.51; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-15 03:34 | v88-twin | Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? | NO 0 | unfilled | fade: single 184-mana YES bet pushed 0.73->0.92; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-15 03:34 | v88-twin | Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? | NO 0 | unfilled | fade: single 59-mana YES bet pushed 0.70->0.85; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-15 03:19 | v88-twin | Will ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026? | NO 85 | open -31 | fade: single 10000-mana YES bet pushed 0.54->0.75; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-15 02:52 | v88-twin | WDh3WHgyMX34DWrh8It8 | NO 85 | open +76 | fade (blind, verify after): single 90-mana YES bet pushed 0.19->0.41; market not in cache |
| 09-15 02:49 | v88-twin | Will "AI 2040: Plan A" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? | NO 0 | unfilled | fade: single 300-mana YES bet pushed 0.84->0.95; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-15 01:31 | v88-twin | Osborn outperforms his 2024 results? | NO 0 | unfilled | fade: single 150-mana YES bet pushed 0.67->0.80; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-15 01:21 | v88-twin | LgSRy86p0P | NO 85 | open +22 | fade (blind, verify after): single 200-mana YES bet pushed 0.35->0.54; market not in cache |
| 09-14 20:25 | v88-twin | p6ENUqEdCE | NO 45 | open +39 | fade (blind, verify after): single 50-mana YES bet pushed 0.15->0.44; market not in cache |
| 09-14 18:52 | v88-twin | Will human mathematicians be mostly obsolete by 2030? | NO 0 | unfilled | fade: single 200-mana YES bet pushed 0.62->0.79; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-14 17:58 | v88-twin | Will Caleb Williams have 4k+ passing yards in the 2026 regular season? | NO 0 | unfilled | fade: single 200-mana YES bet pushed 0.45->0.56; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-14 14:55 | v88-twin | Will 0x53a125F03c90B8E07BA50356B312F4b7b9bA47A7 REACH again more than 267.8431 USDC Base by September 14th 11: | NO 0 | unfilled | fade: single 250-mana YES bet pushed 0.49->0.59; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-14 13:51 | v88-twin | Will global warming be 1.5 °Celsius or higher in 2026, according to Berkeley Earth? | NO 0 | unfilled | fade: single 50-mana YES bet pushed 0.54->0.67; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-14 13:49 | v88-twin | Will global warming be 1.5 °Celsius or higher in 2026, according to Berkeley Earth? | NO 0 | unfilled | fade: single 100-mana YES bet pushed 0.40->0.70; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-13 17:44 | v88-twin | Will Norsk Hydro's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 2.0 million tonnes? | NO 85 | open -57 | fade: single 7000-mana YES bet pushed 0.65->0.81; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-13 17:43 | v88-twin | Will Norsk Hydro's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 2.0 million tonnes? | NO 115 | open -65 | fade: single 4000-mana YES bet pushed 0.61->0.73; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-13 17:39 | v88-twin | Will China Hongqiao Group's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 6.4 million tonnes? | NO 45 | open -29 | fade: single 7500-mana YES bet pushed 0.46->0.74; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-13 09:36 | v88-twin | Will any lab get a C grade for existential safety in the FLI's Winter 2026 AI Safety Index scorecard? | NO 0 | unfilled | fade: single 150-mana YES bet pushed 0.44->0.85; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-13 08:36 | v88-twin | Tadej Pogacar win Hell of the North in 2027 (11th April) | NO 0 | unfilled | fade: single 50-mana YES bet pushed 0.63->0.76; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-13 06:30 | v88-twin | Will AI beat top Magic the Gathering human player before the end of 2028? | NO 85 | open +13 | fade: single 300-mana YES bet pushed 0.34->0.53; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-13 05:36 | v88-twin | Will 0x53a125F03c90B8E07BA50356B312F4b7b9bA47A7 REACH more than 267.8431 USDC on Base by September 14th 11:59 | NO 85 | settled +271 | fade: single 750-mana YES bet pushed 0.08->0.26; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-13 02:46 | v88-twin | Will Democrats win any of these house races? | NO 0 | unfilled | fade: single 150-mana YES bet pushed 0.35->0.45; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-13 02:00 | v88-twin | We get Gemini 4 Pro before GTA 6 | NO 0 | unfilled | fade: single 200-mana YES bet pushed 0.52->0.66; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-12 16:16 | v88-twin | Hb4iq3EAbQ0903nxcA1q | NO 150 | settled -150 | fade (blind, verify after): single 2695-mana YES bet pushed 0.41->0.93; market not in cache |
| 09-12 16:03 | v88-twin | Will Tadej Pogacar win all 5 monuments during his career? | NO 0 | unfilled | fade: single 600-mana YES bet pushed 0.65->0.81; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
Showing the newest 80 of 124 trades.
124 trades, 4,455 staked, realised -168, open +1185 if held / +471 if sold, 66 unfilled.
No decisions traced by this version.
| utc | shove | move | whale | market | outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nothing above whale size yet. | |||||
Of 0 bets judged, 0 cleared every rule
and were faded for 4,455 mana; 0 were beaten to it, the move
taken by someone faster before the last rule could pass. The dashed leg on
each shove is the part of the move that was gone before this module could
act. The book above has every fade this version owns, with its era and
result; the log is traces, which rotate.
Traces are diagnostic and rotate; the trading journal is separate.
Built 2026-09-22 18:27Z.