Every other module reads a number off the venue and applies a rule. This one asks gpt-5.6-luna what a question actually resolves at, without showing it the price, and bets only when the answer and the market disagree by 20% or more. Most of the time they agree, and agreement is not a trade — so most of this page is opinions the module formed and did not act on.
No market has been priced by the model yet. Every new binary market gets an estimate; this fills as they arrive.
Every market the model priced, with the argument it gave — including the ones it argued itself out of. A multi-choice market is priced one answer at a time and each answer is its own row, named after the question. On this module the reasoning is the strategy, so a decline without it is the one decline nobody can check.
| market | price | model | gap | outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nothing priced yet. | ||||
Nothing judged yet.
| utc | version | market | bet | result | why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-19 11:47 | v88-twin | Will the Kennedy Center be demolished during Trump's presidency? | NO 39 | open +9 | model 0.18; edge -0.32; luna-medium price-blind says 0.18 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.32 >= 0.2): The base rate is effectively 0%, but Trump’s explicit threats, aligned trustees, reported deterioration, and a long 28-month window lift the probability to about 18%, while litigation, congressional constraints, and the 30-day judicial notice requirement keep it well below even odds. |
| 09-19 11:29 | v88-twin | Which party will win the Abbotsford-Mission provincial by-election? :: Conservative Party of British Columbia | YES 5 | open +0 | model 0.77; edge +0.52; luna-medium price-blind says 0.77 vs answer 0.25 (edge +0.52 >= 0.1): Base-rate proxy is the Conservatives’ 55.4%–44.6% win in this riding in 2024 (1/1 recent local seat holds); the rules clearly settle on the party of the winner, voting is scheduled for September 26, Elections BC is the resolver, and matching Polymarket odds near 84% are discounted for the narrow prior margin, the NDP’s returning candidate, and Conservative turmoil ([Elections BC](https://elections.bc.ca/news/abbotsford-mission-by-election-candidates-confirmed/), [official 2024 results](https://elections.bc.ca/docs/rpt/statement-of-votes-2024-provincial-election.pdf), [Ipsos](https://www.ipsos.com/en-ca/bc-conservative-support-scatters-under-kerry-lynne-findlay)). |
| 09-19 11:29 | v88-twin | Which party will win the Abbotsford-Mission provincial by-election? :: CentreBC | NO 0 | unfilled | model 0.01; edge -0.24; luna-medium price-blind says 0.01 vs answer 0.25 (edge -0.24 >= 0.1): Base rate: CentreBC has 0 MLAs and this is its first candidate, so prior seat wins are 0%; Elections BC lists Lakhwinder Jhaj as the CentreBC candidate, voting is September 26 with final count October 1, the resolver is Elections BC’s official result, and the matching Polymarket contract prices Jhaj below 1%. |
| 09-19 05:41 | v88-twin | Strait or canal subject to UNCLOS transit passage rights closed by end 2030? | YES 100 | open +6 | model 0.90; edge +0.40; luna-medium price-blind says 0.90 vs market 0.50 (edge +0.40 >= 0.2): The Strait of Hormuz is already experiencing an official/effective closure under the ordinary operational reading, and Bab el-Mandeb adds substantial continuation risk, but UNCLOS’s ban on legal suspension and the lack of a precise closure standard warrant a discount. |
| 09-19 03:11 | v88-twin | Will any Trump's opponents go to prison before 2029? | YES 15 | open +8 | model 0.48; edge +0.28; luna-medium price-blind says 0.48 vs market 0.20 (edge +0.28 >= 0.2): Base rate is roughly 1% per presidential term for a prominent opponent actually entering prison, but Bolton’s October 28, 2026 sentencing is a live trigger with an estimated 40% prison-entry chance; Comey/James appeals and other targets add modest upside, while the broad “opponent” definition and lack of a matching market witness pull the estimate toward 0.5, with AP/Reuters confirmation of physical entry as the resolver. |
| 09-19 00:00 | v88-twin | What will be the next planetary-mass object to have its first ever spacecraft soft landing? :: Ceres | NO 11 | open +2 | model 0.12; edge -0.13; luna-medium price-blind says 0.12 vs answer 0.25 (edge -0.13 >= 0.1): Base rate is 4 first soft landings on listed planetary-mass bodies in 1966–2005 (~0.10/year) but 0 in 2005–2026; Ceres qualifies as a dwarf planetary-mass object, yet no Ceres landing is scheduled before 2050, while Dragonfly targets already-counted Titan and Europa Clipper is not a lander, so the Wikipedia landing list is the resolver and I estimate only 12%. |
| 09-19 00:00 | v88-twin | What will be the next planetary-mass object to have its first ever spacecraft soft landing? :: Mercury | YES 7 | open -4 | model 0.55; edge +0.30; luna-medium price-blind says 0.55 vs answer 0.25 (edge +0.30 >= 0.1): Base rate is 4 first soft landings of non-Earth planetary-mass bodies in 59 years (1966–2005), or 6.8% annually; Mercury is plausible but no Mercury lander is scheduled, while ambiguity over including moons/dwarf planets pulls toward 0.5, with ESA/JAXA BepiColombo’s 2026 Mercury orbit and ESA EnVision’s planned 2031 Venus orbiter as the main calendar evidence, resolved by the linked Wikipedia landing list. |
| 09-18 21:26 | v88-twin | Will Anthropic's public Form S-1 appear on SEC EDGAR by October 31, 2026? | YES 0 | unfilled | model 0.65; edge +0.30; luna-medium price-blind says 0.65 vs market 0.35 (edge +0.30 >= 0.2): Base rate: I estimate ~70% for a confidential IPO submission becoming public within five months (historical median to effectiveness 116 days, 91–175-day interquartile range); EDGAR rules are unambiguous, and no public Anthropic S-1 is visible as of September 18, while reported late-September prospectus/mid-October roadshow timing supports YES but is unconfirmed and sentiment-heavy; no officially scheduled pre-deadline event is known, and the exact resolver is EDGAR (not news); the related Polymarket October-31 IPO contract is ~52% but resolves on trading, not filing, so it is only a lower-bound proxy, leading to 65%. |
| 09-18 21:08 | v88-twin | Senate and House Call of the House prop bets. :: For not attending Senator(s) fined, arrested or otherwise san | NO 64 | open -3 | model 0.01; edge -0.49; luna-medium price-blind says 0.01 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.49 >= 0.3): BASE RATE: roughly 0 confirmed federal Call-of-the-House sanctions in recent decades, with only one notable physical Senate compulsion since 1988; RULES: House Rule XX and Senate Rule VI permit compulsory attendance but do not make sanctions automatic, while “otherwise sanctioned” is undefined and modestly increases ambiguity; NARRATIVE: political drama or thin majorities are weak evidence against the institutional norm of excused or voluntary attendance; CALENDAR: the 120th Congress is scheduled to convene on January 3, 2027, before the April 14 close; RESOLVER: the official House/Senate Journals and Congressional Record, with the Congressional Record as the practical public source; no closely matching witness market was found, so this is a base-rate estimate adjusted slightly upward for opening-day uncertainty. |
| 09-18 21:08 | v88-twin | Senate and House Call of the House prop bets. :: Subsequent to Call of the House, senator(s) flee D. C. By EOM | NO 0 | unfilled | model 0.01; edge -0.48; luna-medium price-blind says 0.01 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.48 >= 0.3): A Call of the House is historically rare and no modern case clearly shows senators fleeing Washington afterward, while the stale Congress label and undefined resolver add ambiguity. |
| 09-18 21:08 | v88-twin | Senate and House Call of the House prop bets. :: Neither a Call of the House nor a Call of the Senate will be | NO 76 | open +0 | model 0.02; edge -0.48; luna-medium price-blind says 0.02 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.48 >= 0.3): Base rate is 2/2 recent Congress openings with an official House Call of the House, and the scheduled January 3, 2027 convening should mechanically create another before January 17. |
| 09-18 21:08 | v88-twin | Senate and House Call of the House prop bets. :: Subsequent to Call of the House, senator(s) flee US By EOM Fe | NO 59 | open -3 | model 0.03; edge -0.47; luna-medium price-blind says 0.03 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.47 >= 0.3): The literal event has a near-zero historical base rate and no clear trigger, while the undefined meaning of “flee US” and lack of a named resolver create substantial ambiguity. |
| 09-18 21:01 | v88-twin | Which countries will leave the UK by EOY 2030? :: Northern Ireland | NO 4 | open +1 | model 0.10; edge -0.40; luna-medium price-blind says 0.10 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.40 >= 0.3): Base rate is 0 successful Northern Ireland exits from the UK since partition and 0 post-1973 border polls; under the Good Friday Agreement a Secretary of State border poll and winning consent are required, current polling remains mixed and generally below 50% for unity, the May 2027 Assembly election is the key scheduled event, and the exact resolver would be an official UK Government/Parliament record of legally effective status change, with absent rules adding modest ambiguity. |
| 09-18 21:01 | v88-twin | Which countries will leave the UK by EOY 2030? :: Scotland | NO 0 | unfilled | model 0.20; edge -0.30; luna-medium price-blind says 0.20 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.30 >= 0.3): Base rate is 0 Scottish exits in 1 independence referendum (2014: 44.7% Yes), while the Supreme Court says Holyrood cannot unilaterally authorize another referendum; the 2029 UK general election is the key scheduled catalyst, but absent resolution rules leave “leave” and the exact official resolver ambiguous, so I assign 20%. [Electoral Commission](https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/research-reports-and-data/our-reports-and-data-past-elections-and-referendums/report-scottish-independence-referendum) [UK Supreme Court](https://www.supremecourt.uk/cases/uksc-2022-0098) [UK Parliament](https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cdp-2025-0251/) |
| 09-18 21:01 | v88-twin | Which countries will leave the UK by EOY 2030? :: Wales | NO 0 | unfilled | model 0.06; edge -0.44; luna-medium price-blind says 0.06 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.44 >= 0.3): Base rate: 0 of the UK’s 3 current constituent nations has left since 1922; current polling has Welsh independence at 22% Yes versus 55% No, and the narrative is weaker than the base rate, while the UK general election due by 15 August 2029 is the main scheduled catalyst; absent rules make the exact resolver ambiguous, but official UK legislation or constitutional announcements would be the likely resolver, with no matching witness market identified ([YouGov](https://yougov.com/en-gb/articles/54649-where-does-political-opinion-stand-in-wales-ahead-of-the-2026-senedd-election), [Electoral Commission](https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/sites/default/files/2025-04/Electoral%20Commission%20Corporate%20Plan%20202526%20-%20202930%20%28laid%20in%20Parliament%207%20April).pdf)). |
| 09-18 20:59 | v88-twin | Which countries will leave the UK by EOY 2030 :: Wales | NO 23 | open | model 0.05; edge -0.28; luna-medium price-blind says 0.05 vs answer 0.33 (edge -0.28 >= 0.1): Base rate is 0 of 4 current UK nations leaving since 1922; absent rules create some ambiguity, but current support is only 22% Yes versus 55% No [YouGov](https://yougov.com/en-gb/articles/54649-where-does-political-opinion-stand-in-wales-ahead-of-the-2026-senedd-election), no independence referendum is scheduled before the next UK election due by 2029, and the resolver would be enacted legislation recorded by [UK Parliament](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/) and corroborated by GOV.UK, while the related 5% referendum market is not directly comparable because a referendum would not itself mean Wales left. |
| 09-18 20:59 | v88-twin | Which countries will leave the UK by EOY 2030 :: Northern Ireland | NO 17 | open | model 0.10; edge -0.23; luna-medium price-blind says 0.10 vs answer 0.33 (edge -0.23 >= 0.1): 0/2 prior NI constitutional votes and 0 completed exits since 1921; a 2027 election may raise pressure, but a border poll and subsequent majority-backed constitutional change by 2030 remain unlikely, with rules unspecified. |
| 09-18 19:52 | v88-twin | Was HPIM alignment-trained? | NO 100 | open -1 | model 0.62; edge -0.30; luna-medium price-blind says 0.62 vs market 0.92 (edge -0.30 >= 0.2): Base-rate prior: about 75% of frontier internal models receive some alignment training, but the rules are ambiguous between any alignment training and the full alignment post-training gauntlet, pulling toward 0.5; the official OpenAI incident page is the resolver, while the current best witness is roon’s clarification that HPIM was alignment-trained versus Brockman’s contrary statement, with no known scheduled clarification before close ([OpenAI](https://openai.com/index/hugging-face-incident-and-the-road-ahead/), [reported clarification](https://www.greaterwrong.com/posts/67gHvbmFeacXi2jCZ/openai-president-brockman-says-huggingface-incident-model)). |
| 09-18 19:44 | v88-twin | Will Jacob Kalinovskiy 10x value at Recall.ai? | NO 30 | open -4 | model 0.24; edge -0.26; luna-medium price-blind says 0.24 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.26 >= 0.2): The low base rate and subjective, undefined resolution standard outweigh Recall’s growth and Jacob’s relevant founder background, though the ambiguity prevents a much lower estimate. |
| 09-18 16:36 | v88-twin | NFL Week 17 - Prop Bets :: A 1pm ET game is still going when a 4:25pm ET game starts | YES 58 | open -0 | model 0.93; edge +0.43; luna-medium price-blind says 0.93 vs answer 0.50 (edge +0.43 >= 0.3): Eight 1:00pm games create multiple independent chances for one to exceed the roughly 3h25m duration needed to overlap the scheduled 4:25pm kickoff. |
| 09-18 16:36 | v88-twin | NFL Week 17 - Prop Bets :: Highest Scoring Game of the Season (so far)* | NO 60 | open +32 | model 0.05; edge -0.45; luna-medium price-blind says 0.05 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.45 >= 0.3): Historical frequency is about 4.2% overall and 0% in the recent 17-game-era sample, with only 16 Week 17 opportunities against roughly 256 earlier games. |
| 09-18 16:36 | v88-twin | NFL Week 17 - Prop Bets :: At least one missed kicking extra point attempt | YES 60 | open +22 | model 0.95; edge +0.45; luna-medium price-blind says 0.95 vs answer 0.50 (edge +0.45 >= 0.3): Recent NFL PAT miss rates imply roughly a 95% chance that at least one of the 16 Week 17 games records a missed kicking extra point. |
| 09-18 16:36 | v88-twin | NFL Week 17 - Prop Bets :: Game Winning Drive starting in the last 2 Minutes | YES 58 | open +10 | model 0.93; edge +0.43; luna-medium price-blind says 0.93 vs answer 0.50 (edge +0.43 >= 0.3): A late game-winning drive is uncommon in any one game but highly likely to occur at least once across 16 Week 17 games, with a small discount for ambiguous timing rules and Week 17 resting/mismatch effects. |
| 09-18 16:06 | v88-twin | Which NFL football game will have the lowest total points scored in the 2026-27 NFL Season? :: Week One: (13-1 | NO 48 | open +5 | model 0.01; edge -0.20; luna-medium price-blind says 0.01 vs answer 0.20 (edge -0.20 >= 0.1): Base rate: 5/5 recent NFL seasons (2021–2025) had a game below 23 total points; with 271+ regular-season/playoff games remaining, the Sep. 9 Patriots–Seahawks 13–10 is very unlikely to remain lowest despite ties, with Week 2 beginning Sep. 20 and the official NFL Game Center/gamebook as resolver [NFL historical data](https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/lowest-scoring-nfl-game-in-every-season-since-2000) [NFL schedule](https://www.nfl.com/schedules/2026/by-week/week-2) [game center](https://www.nfl.com/games/patriots-at-seahawks-2026-reg-1?tab=recap). |
| 09-18 13:52 | v88-twin | Will the recorded US measles cases reach or exceed 3,500 cases in today's update? | YES 100 | settled +91 | model 0.80; edge +0.30; luna-medium price-blind says 0.80 vs market 0.50 (edge +0.30 >= 0.2): Base rate: the latest CDC weekly update added 160 cases, so the 113-case gap is 70.6% of the recent weekly increment; JHU updates weekly on Fridays, making today’s release mechanically likely, and its exact tracker is the resolver, while CDC is only a proxy with some basis risk. [JHU tracker](https://publichealth.jhu.edu/ivac/resources/us-measles-tracker) [CDC update](https://news.bloomberglaw.com/us-law-week/measles-cases-surge-as-cdc-reports-160-new-cases) |
| 09-18 12:49 | v88-twin | Does Netanyahu lead the next government after the Israeli General Election? | NO 22 | open +3 | model 0.30; edge -0.20; luna-medium price-blind says 0.30 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.20 >= 0.2): Historical base rate: Netanyahu led the government after 3 of 5 elections in which he ran (60%), but current evidence is weaker: the Oct. 27 election is scheduled, opposition fragmentation and coalition math are unfavorable, Polymarket’s closely matching sworn-in-PM contract is about 28% (a proxy adjusted slightly upward), and resolution should come from the Israeli President/Government’s official appointment and swearing-in records; I interpret “meteorologists” as “met.” |
| 09-18 07:36 | v88-twin | Petrov Day 2026 - Munich vs. Freiburg - Who will launch? :: Both | NO 17 | open +4 | model 0.06; edge -0.19; luna-medium price-blind says 0.06 vs answer 0.25 (edge -0.19 >= 0.1): Historical base rate is 0/2 comparable two-sided Petrov games with both sides launching; the rules make false alarms only ~1% per group and ambiguity about synchronized timing favors 0.5, while the scheduled event is 2026-09-26 and the exact resolver is the tool’s event log at https://petrov.rationality-munich.com/ (historical evidence: [2021](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wgreyTFhrNmgJBjMD/petrov-day-retrospective-2021), [2024](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6LJx6xcHEjFQkctGhZs/the-2024-petrov-day-scenario)). |
| 09-18 07:36 | v88-twin | Petrov Day 2026 - Munich vs. Freiburg - Who will launch? :: Freiburg | NO 13 | open +3 | model 0.08; edge -0.17; luna-medium price-blind says 0.08 vs answer 0.25 (edge -0.17 >= 0.1): Historical comparable Petrov events saw launches in roughly 2 of 5 major paired exercises (40%), but this stricter symmetric game with a 1% false-alarm rate per group lowers the estimate to about 8% for Freiburg specifically; the only scheduled event is the 2026-09-26 ceremony, resolved by the tool at https://petrov.rationality-munich.com/, with no matching witness market found. |
| 09-18 07:36 | v88-twin | Petrov Day 2026 - Munich vs. Freiburg - Who will launch? :: Neither | YES 14 | open +20 | model 0.80; edge +0.55; luna-medium price-blind says 0.80 vs answer 0.25 (edge +0.55 >= 0.1): Historical Petrov events favor no launch, while the 1% false-alarm risk and ambiguous duration leave a meaningful but small chance of retaliatory or accidental launch. |
| 09-18 07:36 | v88-twin | Petrov Day 2026 - Munich vs. Freiburg - Who will launch? :: Munich | NO 21 | open +5 | model 0.03; edge -0.23; luna-medium price-blind says 0.03 vs answer 0.25 (edge -0.23 >= 0.1): The tiny historical base rate and strong Petrov-Day deterrence imply roughly a 5% chance that either group launches, while the rules and symmetric setup make Munich about half of that conditional probability. |
| 09-18 04:18 | v88-twin | Nash Pit, The Overhang 2026: What choice will [Contestant B] make? :: Forfeit | NO 100 | settled +37 | model 0.12; edge -0.21; luna-medium price-blind says 0.12 vs answer 0.33 (edge -0.21 >= 0.1): Historical base rate is 0/4 Nash Pit contestants forfeiting; with the show scheduled for The Overhang on Sep 19–20, the exact resolver being Quroe’s Manifold market, and the unrestricted secret Twist plus absence/disruption clauses creating substantial ambiguity, I raise this to 12%. |
| 09-18 04:18 | v88-twin | Nash Pit, The Overhang 2026: What choice will [Contestant B] make? :: Share | NO 86 | settled +39 | model 0.20; edge -0.13; luna-medium price-blind says 0.20 vs answer 0.33 (edge -0.13 >= 0.1): Base rate is 1/3 for Share among three choices, but prior Nash Pit pricing favored Steal (~31% Share for Contestant B); the Twist can alter rules, Contestant B is unspecified, and no independently verifiable event schedule was found before the Sep 20 close, so I estimate ~80% show-start probability × ~25% conditional Share probability, resolved by the Manifold market’s Share answer. |
| 09-18 04:18 | v88-twin | Nash Pit, The Overhang 2026: What choice will [Contestant A] make? :: Forfeit | NO 20 | settled +5 | model 0.08; edge -0.25; luna-medium price-blind says 0.08 vs answer 0.33 (edge -0.25 >= 0.1): Forfeiture has not occurred in four observed contestant outcomes, and although the unrevealed Twist and absent Contestant A identity add uncertainty, the eligibility rules and planned event make a completed Share/Steal choice much more likely than Forfeit. |
| 09-18 04:18 | v88-twin | Nash Pit, The Overhang 2026: What choice will [Contestant A] make? :: Share | YES 40 | settled +78 | model 0.47; edge +0.14; luna-medium price-blind says 0.47 vs answer 0.33 (edge +0.14 >= 0.1): Share has an approximately 50% structural base rate, multiplied by roughly 95% odds the show begins, with the unknown contestant and Twist creating enough ambiguity to keep the estimate near 0.5. |
| 09-18 02:07 | v88-twin | How many people will attend our 21th monthly NYC dinner? :: >=5 | YES 0 | unfilled | model 0.91; edge +0.41; luna-medium price-blind says 0.91 vs answer 0.50 (edge +0.41 >= 0.3): The historical base rate is 19/20 (95%) for attendance of at least 5, with only dinner 14 below the threshold; the rules are clear, no specific dinner date or external witness is provided before the 2026-10-25 close, and the organizer's final attendance count is the implied resolver, so I modestly discount the small-sample rate. |
| 09-18 02:07 | v88-twin | How many people will attend our 21th monthly NYC dinner? :: >=6 | YES 1 | open +0 | model 0.86; edge +0.36; luna-medium price-blind says 0.86 vs answer 0.50 (edge +0.36 >= 0.3): Base rate is 18/20 = 90% of prior dinners reaching >=6; the rules clearly count attendance directly, no exact dinner date or external witness is provided before the 2026-10-25 close, and the organizer’s recorded headcount is the resolver. |
| 09-18 00:22 | v88-twin | Where are we going? :: Mendocino | YES 0 | unfilled | model 0.50; edge +0.25; luna-medium price-blind says 0.50 vs answer 0.25 (edge +0.25 >= 0.1): With no resolution condition, source, or relevant event specified, the market is fundamentally unresolvable and should be centered at 0.5. |
| 09-18 00:22 | v88-twin | Where are we going? :: Yosemite | YES 6 | settled -6 | model 0.50; edge +0.25; luna-medium price-blind says 0.50 vs answer 0.25 (edge +0.25 >= 0.1): Base rate is unavailable (0 observations), and with no resolution rules or context, reasonable interpretations diverge, so the estimate is 0.5. |
| 09-18 00:22 | v88-twin | Where are we going? :: Tahoe | YES 6 | settled -6 | model 0.50; edge +0.25; luna-medium price-blind says 0.50 vs answer 0.25 (edge +0.25 >= 0.1): Base rate: 50% for an unspecified binary outcome; the absent resolution rules and exact resolver make reasonable interpretations diverge, with no identifiable scheduled event or matching witness before the 2026-09-19 close. |
| 09-17 22:15 | v88-twin | Will Metroid Ravenous win Game of the Year at the Game Awards? | NO 60 | open +30 | model 0.06; edge -0.44; luna-medium price-blind says 0.06 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.44 >= 0.2): Ravenous is a prominent eligible sequel with plausible nomination odds, but the six-way GOTY field, uncertain quality and competition, Nintendo’s limited historical conversion rate, and slight year ambiguity imply about a 6% win probability. |
| 09-17 21:57 | v88-twin | If the Conservatives get >100 seats in the next general election, will the PM at the end of 2027 be Labour? | NO 19 | open +8 | model 0.44; edge -0.36; luna-medium price-blind says 0.44 vs market 0.80 (edge -0.36 >= 0.2): Postwar Conservatives cleared 100 seats in 24/24 elections, but current models sit near 100–122 seats; combining roughly 0.60 for Conservatives >100, 0.78 for a Labour PM at end-2027, and a rules-driven haircut for Labour also exceeding 100 yields about 0.44. |
| 09-17 21:49 | v88-twin | In which years will SpaceX launch crewed missions? :: 2027 | YES 0 | unfilled | model 0.98; edge +0.48; luna-medium price-blind says 0.98 vs answer 0.50 (edge +0.48 >= 0.3): The historical rate is 7/7, with Axiom-5 targeted for January 2027 and NASA-contracted Crew-14 providing substantial redundancy, leaving mainly schedule-slip risk. |
| 09-17 21:49 | v88-twin | In which years will SpaceX launch crewed missions? :: 2029 | YES 0 | unfilled | model 0.88; edge +0.38; luna-medium price-blind says 0.88 vs answer 0.50 (edge +0.38 >= 0.3): Base rate is 7/7 years (100%) from 2020–2026; the rules count any pad departure, NASA’s planned Crew-13 in October 2026 and Vast’s SpaceX Dragon mission in summer 2027 support continued cadence, NASA’s procurement notice seeks up to three additional SpaceX crew missions, and the exact resolver is NASA’s official launch schedule/mission announcements (no matching related-market witness used): https://sam.gov/opp/816f23fd6ab64b4e9b2dab312df73487/view |
| 09-17 21:49 | v88-twin | In which years will SpaceX launch crewed missions? :: 2030 | YES 0 | unfilled | model 0.86; edge +0.36; luna-medium price-blind says 0.86 vs answer 0.50 (edge +0.36 >= 0.3): SpaceX has launched crewed missions in 7/7 historical years and NASA’s ISS-crew requirements extend through 2030, while Dragon retirement and uncertain Starship certification leave a material transition-gap risk. |
| 09-17 19:20 | v88-twin | Will every Millennium Prize problem be solved before 2028 | NO 73 | open +26 | model 0.00; edge -0.50; luna-medium price-blind says 0.00 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.50 >= 0.2): Base rate: only 1 of 7 problems has been officially solved in 26 years (0.038/year); Clay lists six still unsolved, and even the apparent 2026 Navier–Stokes breakthrough cannot qualify until its proof has been published, accepted, and reviewed for two years, with no scheduled event before 2028 resolving the remainder; resolver: Clay’s official ledger and rules (https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/ and https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/rules/), with wording ambiguity between mathematical and official resolution modestly pulling upward but not materially. |
| 09-17 19:12 | v88-twin | Principality of Piddlington will do what? (Prop bets) Add your own :: Manned border crossings | NO 10 | open +2 | model 0.16; edge -0.34; luna-medium price-blind says 0.16 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.34 >= 0.3): Base rate is roughly 1 in 20 (5%) for symbolic micronation protests creating a genuinely manned border crossing; the rules do not define “manned” or the resolving source, which adds ambiguity and raises this toward 0.5, but the protest framing favors a publicity stunt over durable infrastructure, no relevant event is scheduled before 2032, and the likely resolver is an official Piddington/parish announcement (with news reports only as proxy evidence). |
| 09-17 19:12 | v88-twin | Principality of Piddlington will do what? (Prop bets) Add your own :: Specific type of land holdings deriving | NO 14 | open -0 | model 0.08; edge -0.42; luna-medium price-blind says 0.08 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.42 >= 0.3): Historical base rate is effectively 0 documented cases of a symbolic English village creating legally recognized land holdings; the rules leave the option undefined, no scheduled event mechanically implies it, and the exact resolver is unclear beyond an official Piddington Parish Council or UK government announcement, so YES is unlikely despite the publicity. |
| 09-17 19:12 | v88-twin | Principality of Piddlington will do what? (Prop bets) Add your own :: Mint coinage | NO 10 | open -1 | model 0.15; edge -0.35; luna-medium price-blind says 0.15 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.35 >= 0.3): Base rate: roughly 5% of protest micronations issue physical coinage within five years; the rules do not define whether tokens or unofficial souvenirs count, so ambiguity pulls upward toward 0.5 but legal impossibility and symbolic-narrative risk dominate, with the late-2026/early-2027 asylum-site opening as the only scheduled catalyst and no matching witness market, while resolution would require an official Piddington Parish Council announcement or verifiable artifact. |
| 09-17 19:12 | v88-twin | Principality of Piddlington will do what? (Prop bets) Add your own :: Grant nobility, title or other acknowled | NO 16 | open -2 | model 0.03; edge -0.47; luna-medium price-blind says 0.03 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.47 >= 0.3): Base rate is roughly 2–3 UK place-based civic/royal title grants per year, with virtually none for villages like Piddington; treating “Piddlington” as the evident typo for Piddington, the rules require an external grant rather than its self-declaration, media sentiment is outweighed by the lack of legal standing, no scheduled event specifically drives this before 2032, and the resolver would be an official UK Government/Royal Family or Gazette announcement (no matching witness markets found). |
| 09-17 18:46 | v88-twin | (Week 2) NFL 2026 Mega-Market: All Games / TV Guide 🏈 :: Dolphins beat 49ers (09/20) 4:25 PM (FOX) | NO 0 | unfilled | model 0.13; edge -0.37; luna-medium price-blind says 0.13 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.37 >= 0.3): Miami is a large road underdog, and sportsbook/implied-market witnesses cluster near 11–15%; I estimate a 13% outright-win probability. |
| 09-17 18:41 | v88-twin | Will a visible “chemtrail” be captured by a UW–Madison rooftop camera between 9 AM and 1 PM CT on September 24 | NO 25 | open +5 | model 0.27; edge -0.23; luna-medium price-blind says 0.27 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.23 >= 0.2): Base-rate estimate: about 20% of comparable four-hour Madison windows capture a persistent, identifiable contrail; the forecast proxy suggests relatively clear skies on September 24, but upper-air contrail conditions are uncertain, while the rules’ persistence threshold is somewhat ambiguous; no scheduled event materially changes this, and the exact resolver is the archived UW–Madison AOSS rooftop-camera footage at https://www.aos.wisc.edu/weather/wx_obs/WebCam.html. |
| 09-17 16:06 | v88-twin | Will Daniel Lord livestream between September 20 and September 27 of 2026? | YES 2 | open -0 | model 0.72; edge +0.22; luna-medium price-blind says 0.72 vs market 0.50 (edge +0.22 >= 0.2): Base rate: 9 qualifying livestreams from July 17–September 10 (0.164/day), implying roughly 73% for an eight-day window; rules are clear and the recent return shows strong momentum, with no known scheduled event before close, the exact resolver being the official Hiding in my room YouTube channel and community evidence as backup, while the prior Manifold market’s YES supports activity but has materially different rules and is only a weak witness ([channel record](https://hidinginmyroom.com/wiki/events/2026-return-and-car-camping/), [prior market](https://manifold.markets/Storyteller/will-daniel-livestream-before-septe)). |
| 09-17 15:36 | v88-twin | What bad things will happen in Russia after elections? [prop bets] :: Official full mobilization | NO 12 | open +2 | model 0.12; edge -0.38; luna-medium price-blind says 0.12 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.38 >= 0.3): Despite the ongoing war and post-election timing, the historical rate is effectively zero, Russia has expanded forces through contracts and routine conscription, and no specific trigger currently makes a general mobilization more likely than its low base rate. |
| 09-17 15:36 | v88-twin | What bad things will happen in Russia after elections? [prop bets] :: Taking money from bank deposits | NO 12 | open -0 | model 0.12; edge -0.38; luna-medium price-blind says 0.12 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.38 >= 0.3): Comparable post-election base rates are effectively zero, existing restrictions are not election-caused, and official freeze/confiscation evidence is absent, though the vague wording and unspecified resolver warrant some uncertainty. |
| 09-17 15:08 | v88-twin | Cycling World Championships 2026 - Women's ITT Winner :: Demi Vollering | YES 20 | settled -20 | model 0.20; edge +0.13; luna-medium price-blind says 0.20 vs answer 0.07 (edge +0.13 >= 0.1): Vollering has been 2nd and 3rd in the last two Worlds ITTs, but Reusser is the defending champion, has won 6 of her last 7 ITTs, and recently beat Vollering by 17 seconds on a shorter course. |
| 09-17 13:11 | v88-twin | Will North Dakota State University play in the College Football Playoff this Season? | NO 30 | open +8 | model 0.12; edge -0.33; luna-medium price-blind says 0.12 vs market 0.45 (edge -0.33 >= 0.2): Base rate: a 12-team CFP field among roughly 136–138 FBS teams is about 9% per team-season, while no FCS-to-FBS newcomer has previously made the CFP; NDSU is 3-0 and eligible under the verified 2026 rules, but must likely win the Mountain West/G6 berth, with betting proxies around 6–9% and one model at 16%; key dates are the remaining schedule, CFP Selection Day on Dec. 6, and playoff games through Jan. 25; the resolver is the official CFP committee’s final rankings/bracket, not those proxy markets ([CFP format](https://collegefootballplayoff.com/news/2026/8/6/sc-aug-2627), [NDSU schedule](https://themw.com/schedule.aspx?schedule=14276)). |
| 09-17 12:09 | v88-twin | What will the UK's V-Dem Regimes of the World classification be in 2034 if the PM after the next GE is Conserv | NO 0 | unfilled | model 0.00; edge -0.25; luna-medium price-blind says 0.00 vs answer 0.25 (edge -0.25 >= 0.1): Base rate is 0% (0/79 UK years classified closed autocracy in 1945–2023); allowing 25% for a Conservative PM after the next election and 0.4% conditional autocracy risk, the joint YES probability is 0.1%, with the next GE due by 15 August 2029 and the resolver being V-Dem’s first official 2034 UK v2x_regime release. |
| 09-17 12:09 | v88-twin | What will the UK's V-Dem Regimes of the World classification be in 2034 if the PM after the next GE is Conserv | NO 16 | open -1 | model 0.07; edge -0.18; luna-medium price-blind says 0.07 vs answer 0.25 (edge -0.18 >= 0.1): Historical base rate is 2/76 (2.6%) for exact Electoral Democracy in UK V-Dem country-years since 1950, though the UK shifted from Liberal to Electoral Democracy in 2024–25; the matching PM-party market is 14% Conservatives, I estimate 50% Electoral Democracy conditional on that event amid ongoing backsliding, and thus 0.14×0.50≈0.07, with the next GE due by 15 August 2029 and the exact resolver being V-Dem’s first official 2034 release (the OWID series is only a historical proxy). |
| 09-17 12:09 | v88-twin | What will the UK's V-Dem Regimes of the World classification be in 2034 if the PM after the next GE is Conserv | NO 0 | unfilled | model 0.12; edge -0.13; luna-medium price-blind says 0.12 vs answer 0.25 (edge -0.13 >= 0.1): Base rate: Electoral autocracy occurred in 19/237 (8.0%) UK V-Dem country-years overall but 0/107 since 1919; rules are clear and conditional, so I ignore the probability of a Conservative PM, discount party narratives, note the 11.6% cross-country nine-year Electoral Democracy-to-Electoral Autocracy rate, and expect the next GE by 15 August 2029, with resolution by the UK 2034 row in V-Dem’s first official release containing 2034 (normally 2035). |
| 09-17 12:08 | v88-twin | What will the UK's V-Dem Regimes of the World classification be in 2034 if the PM after the next GE is Reform? | NO 0 | unfilled | model 0.01; edge -0.24; luna-medium price-blind says 0.01 vs answer 0.25 (edge -0.24 >= 0.1): UK base rate is 0/115 observed covered years (1911–2025) classified Closed autocracy, while v16 shows Electoral democracy in 2024–25; the rules are clear but future methodology changes add small N/A risk, current Reform polling is only a weak narrative signal, the next GE is due by 15 August 2029, and I estimate P(Reform PM)≈0.30 × P(Closed autocracy in 2034|Reform PM)≈0.017, with the official resolver being V-Dem’s first release containing UK 2034 v2x_regime (current v16 and the 2024 report are direct evidence, not proxies), and no matching witness market used. |
| 09-17 06:05 | v88-twin | Will there be a usable internet in 2030? | NO 70 | open -17 | model 0.01; edge -0.48; luna-medium price-blind says 0.01 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.48 >= 0.2): Base rate: global internet use rose from 40% of people in 2015 to 74% in 2025 (0/10 observed annual declines), so a reversal to most people not using it by 2030 is extremely unlikely; the rules are somewhat subjective, no scheduled event before close bears mechanically on this, the resolver is the market’s Jan. 1, 2030 judgment rather than a named data series, and the closest witness—Manifold’s extinction market—has materially different rules and is therefore ignored ([ITU](https://www.itu.int/itu-d/reports/statistics/2025/10/15/ff25-internet-use/), [Manifold](https://manifold.markets/DudleyDOODOO/will-the-internet-become-extinct-be)). |
| 09-17 05:05 | v88-twin | Which democrats will be leading in the Big Data Senate Polls? :: Roy cooper - north carolina | YES 0 | unfilled | model 0.90; edge +0.40; luna-medium price-blind says 0.90 vs answer 0.50 (edge +0.40 >= 0.3): Base rate: Cooper leads 3/3 latest likely-voter NC Senate polls; Big Data’s official state chart is the resolver, and no scheduled event before Sep 18 appears likely to reverse his strong lead, though the rules’ definition of “current” is somewhat ambiguous. |
| 09-17 05:05 | v88-twin | Which democrats will be leading in the Big Data Senate Polls? :: Jon Ossoff- georgia | YES 0 | unfilled | model 0.85; edge +0.35; luna-medium price-blind says 0.85 vs answer 0.50 (edge +0.35 >= 0.3): Ossoff leads every recent likely-voter Georgia poll and the national Big Data Senate environment is strongly Democratic, but release timing and incomplete race-specific rules create modest uncertainty. |
| 09-17 03:08 | v88-twin | Will Dario amodei be banned from entering China by eoy2028 | NO 0 | unfilled | model 0.20; edge -0.30; luna-medium price-blind says 0.20 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.30 >= 0.2): A current China–Anthropic confrontation and broad sanctions authority raise the low civilian-tech base rate, but the lack of resolution rules and the absence of precedent for banning a civilian AI CEO keep YES near 20%. |
| 09-17 02:51 | v88-twin | Will Australia loosen copyright laws to allow AI model training by EOY 2027? | YES 100 | open -0 | model 0.72; edge +0.22; luna-medium price-blind says 0.72 vs market 0.50 (edge +0.22 >= 0.2): A live government consultation and strong investment pressure make a conditional copyright loosening plausible by 2027, but explicit opposition to a broad text-and-data-mining exception and legislative ambiguity keep confidence below 0.8. |
| 09-17 01:15 | v88-twin | US Average DIESEL Price Is $8 or more on any day in 2026? | YES 100 | open -10 | model 0.36; edge +0.21; luna-medium price-blind says 0.36 vs market 0.15 (edge +0.21 >= 0.2): AAA diesel is already at a record $6.31, but crossing $7 requires another 10.9% increase in 105 days; the ongoing supply shock makes this materially plausible, while the zero historical hit rate and likely mean reversion keep it below even odds. |
| 09-17 01:15 | v88-twin | US Average DIESEL Price Is $7 or more on any day in 2026? | NO 100 | open +2 | model 0.38; edge -0.31; luna-medium price-blind says 0.38 vs market 0.69 (edge -0.31 >= 0.2): Historical base rate is 0 prior AAA years above $7 (the prior record was $5.8159), while today’s AAA diesel average is a record $6.3103—10.9% below the threshold—so sustained Iran-related supply tightness could cross it, with AAA as the exact resolver and EIA/OPEC releases on Oct. 6, Oct. 4, Nov. 10, Nov. 29, and Dec. 8 as key scheduled catalysts; no matching-rule market witness was found. [AAA](https://gasprices.aaa.com/) [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/release_schedule.php) [OPEC](https://www.opec.org/pr-detail/613-6-september-2026.html) |
| 09-17 00:07 | v88-twin | Will John Cornyn endorse James Talarico | NO 71 | open +2 | model 0.02; edge -0.23; luna-medium price-blind says 0.02 vs market 0.25 (edge -0.23 >= 0.2): Base rate is about 3% for a defeated same-party primary candidate to endorse the opposing party by Election Day; rules are clear, and Cornyn has said he will support Paxton, while current reporting shows him attacking Talarico, so sentiment about Paxton’s vulnerability is weak evidence; the Sep. 22, Oct. 6 and Oct. 13 debates and Oct. 19 early voting are the main scheduled catalysts before Nov. 3; the resolver is Cornyn’s official public statement or verified account (current evidence is media reporting, a proxy), and no matching witness market was found ([AP](https://apnews.com/article/596173f3d9badf5a380bb9b58304ed30), [Texas election calendar](https://www.sos.texas.gov/elections/candidates/guide/2026/dates2026.shtml), [debate schedule](https://desototribune.com/2026/07/29/debate-dates-announced-in-paxton-talarico-u-s-senate-race/)). |
| 09-16 23:35 | v88-twin | Is Union Alpha a router? | NO 17 | settled -17 | model 0.08; edge -0.42; luna-medium price-blind says 0.08 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.42 >= 0.2): Historical base rate is 0/13 known OpenRouter stealth slots confirmed as routers; the rules exclude OpenRouter's own forwarding, and the official listing shows one anonymous provider, so the likely ~September 22 preview reveal should identify a standalone model, with OpenRouter's Union Alpha page and any provider announcement or audit as resolvers. |
| 09-16 21:16 | v88-twin | Will bluelinfish finish his county song by EOY? | NO 45 | open +7 | model 0.14; edge -0.35; luna-medium price-blind says 0.14 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.36 >= 0.2): The strict completion standard, no verified schedule or progress signal, and lack of matching witness prices imply a low probability despite ample time remaining. |
| 09-16 21:11 | v88-twin | Podium Sitters of WRC Rally Italia Sardegna 2026 :: Takamoto Katsuta | NO 0 | unfilled | model 0.17; edge -0.33; luna-medium price-blind says 0.17 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.33 >= 0.3): Base rate: Katsuta has 0 podiums in 4 prior Sardegna starts (0%), though his 2026 form includes two wins; the rules are clear, he is confirmed in Toyota’s five-car Rally1 entry, the scheduled event is October 1–4 with no intervening WRC round, and the exact resolver is WRC.com/FIA’s official final overall classification (recent Chile retirement and Sardegna’s attritional gravel raise uncertainty). |
| 09-16 21:07 | v88-twin | Trump vs Anyone Else. Who’ll be impeached first? :: Supreme Court Justice, Cabinet Secretary, VP, Future Presi | NO 19 | open -1 | model 0.18; edge -0.32; luna-medium price-blind says 0.18 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.32 >= 0.1): Base rate: 20 House impeachments since 1789, about 8.4% per year (roughly 24% for any impeachment through 2029); rules clearly count House action only, Trump’s elevated but partisan risk is offset by the GOP-controlled House through 2026, with the 2026 midterms and January 2027 Congress change the key calendar events, and the exact resolver is the official House Journal/Clerk record, not Senate conviction ([House history](https://history.house.gov/Institution/Origins-Development/Impeachment/), [House party breakdown](https://radiotv.house.gov/house-data/party-breakdown), [inauguration schedule](https://www.usa.gov/inauguration)). |
| 09-16 20:33 | v88-twin | Who is behind Union Alpha, the mysterious new LLM on OpenRouter? :: Zhipu (GLM) | YES 16 | open | model 0.62; edge +0.51; luna-medium price-blind says 0.62 vs answer 0.11 (edge +0.51 >= 0.1): Base rate is about 1/7 (14%) for a specific Zhipu identity among recent OpenRouter stealth-model reveals, but the prior Ox Alpha reveal, GLM-like tokenizer/behavior reports, and matching deployment pattern raise this case; rules omit what “behind” means and the exact resolver, so ambiguity pulls toward 0.5, with the Sep 22–23 AI Summit Barcelona as a competing Mistral-related catalyst and OpenRouter’s Union Alpha page/official reveal as the resolver (community evidence is only a proxy). |
| 09-16 20:33 | v88-twin | Who is behind Union Alpha, the mysterious new LLM on OpenRouter? :: OpenAI (ChatGPT) | YES 8 | open | model 0.36; edge +0.25; luna-medium price-blind says 0.36 vs answer 0.11 (edge +0.25 >= 0.1): OpenAI has a 31% historical base rate among prior stealth listings, with modest naming/context support but strong provider anonymity, competing Mistral signals, and materially ambiguous resolution rules. |
| 09-16 20:33 | v88-twin | Who is behind Union Alpha, the mysterious new LLM on OpenRouter? :: Moonshot (Kimi) | YES 4 | open | model 0.24; edge +0.13; luna-medium price-blind says 0.24 vs answer 0.11 (edge +0.13 >= 0.1): Base rate: 7/13 historical OpenRouter stealth slots were officially identified, with 0/7 identified as Moonshot; rules omit a resolver, creating material ambiguity and pulling toward 0.5; current fingerprint chatter favors GLM/Z.ai over Kimi, no verified Moonshot announcement is scheduled before the Sep 23 close, and the exact resolver should be OpenRouter’s model page or an official provider announcement (https://openrouter.ai/stealth/union-alpha). |
| 09-16 20:33 | v88-twin | Who is behind Union Alpha, the mysterious new LLM on OpenRouter? :: Mistral | YES 4 | open | model 0.24; edge +0.13; luna-medium price-blind says 0.24 vs answer 0.11 (edge +0.13 >= 0.1): Base rate: Mistral accounts for 0/13 confirmed historical OpenRouter stealth identities, while 7/13 received official reveals [census](https://www.digitalapplied.com/blog/openrouter-stealth-model-census-who-they-turned-out-to-be); Union Alpha is currently explicitly anonymous [OpenRouter](https://openrouter.ai/stealth/union-alpha), and the absent rules make “behind” ambiguous, though the 16–23 September Barcelona AI Week featuring Mistral and the 262K-context/European clues modestly raise the odds; settlement should require an official OpenRouter or Mistral disclosure, with no matching related market found. |
| 09-16 20:02 | v88-twin | Who will be the winners of Manifold Prize Drawing #31 :: @ChaosDirector | YES 18 | open -0 | model 0.99; edge +0.49; luna-medium price-blind says 0.99 vs answer 0.50 (edge +0.49 >= 0.3): Base rate: 30/30 prior Manifold prize drawings appear to have produced winners; rules allow N/A only for cancellation, no such cancellation is indicated, the Oct. 15 close mechanically triggers the Bitcoin-seeded draw, and Manifold’s official Prize page/winner record—not proxy markets—will resolve it. |
| 09-16 20:02 | v88-twin | Who will be the winners of Manifold Prize Drawing #31 :: @Yoae | NO 0 | unfilled | model 0.01; edge -0.49; luna-medium price-blind says 0.01 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.49 >= 0.3): Historical entrant-level win rates are roughly 0.5–1.4%, and with five random winners I estimate @Yoae’s chance at about 0.9% absent evidence of unusually many entries. |
| 09-16 20:02 | v88-twin | Who will be the winners of Manifold Prize Drawing #31 :: @imonarcelbryan | NO 0 | unfilled | model 0.01; edge -0.49; luna-medium price-blind says 0.01 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.49 >= 0.3): Base rate is 5/1.21 million entries ≈0.0004% per entry; allowing for unknown multiple entries, the 19% market price, low cancellation risk, and the Oct. 15 close with Manifold’s official prize page as resolver, I estimate 1%. |
| 09-16 20:02 | v88-twin | Who will be the winners of Manifold Prize Drawing #31 :: @ChristopherRandles | NO 18 | open -0 | model 0.00; edge -0.50; luna-medium price-blind says 0.00 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.50 >= 0.3): Historical base rate: Drawing #30 had about 1.21M entries, so five-winner equal-entry odds are ~0.0000041 per entry; rules confirm one free entry plus optional earned entries, equal weighting, no repeat winners, and cancellation/N/A risk, so assuming Christopher has ~12 entry-equivalents gives ~0.00005, with the Oct. 15 close and official Manifold prize page as resolver and no matching witness market. |
Showing the newest 80 of 598 trades.
598 trades, 16,420 staked, realised +357, open +3701 if held / +1616 if sold, 152 unfilled.
In the traces on hand the model priced 0
answers across 0 markets and the module acted on
0 of them (0%). The journal holds
598 trades for 16,420 mana. 90 of them settled for +357.
An estimate the model declines to give is treated as no opinion and never
as a cheap one.
Traces are diagnostic and rotate; the trading journal is the book above.
Built 2026-09-22 18:16Z.