The mirror of whale‑fade: a single bet that shoves a binary market down 0.25+ is on average overconfident, and this module buys 25 YES against it on the same reaction race. Measured +6.98/event in the 2026 era (n=753, CI [+2.97, +11.19]) on the resolution replay; its own book so the number stays visible.
No decisions traced by this version.
| utc | version | market | bet | result | why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-02 15:11 | v86 | nU8zNAEhqZ | YES 18 | open -10 | down-fade (blind, verify after): single 2000-mana NO bet pushed 0.50->0.10; market not in cache |
1 trade, 18 staked, realised +0, open -10 if held / -10 if sold.
Judge this module at resolution, like the replay that justified it; the race column says whether the entry price was still worth having. Traces are diagnostic and rotate; the trading journal is separate. Built 2026-09-22 18:01Z.