Someone drops a big YES bet and shoves a market upward. On average that is overconfidence rather than news, so this module buys the other side. It only counts as a whale above 100 mana and a 20% shove, it stakes 25 and holds at most 50 per market — so it turns almost everything down. This page is mostly a record of what it turned down.
No whale-sized bets seen yet. Every bet on the venue is checked; this fills when one is big enough to matter.
| market type | fades | staked | realised | open, if held | open, if sold | mana / fade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| binary | 8 | 560 | -560.0 (6 settled) | +0.0 | +0.0 | -70.00 |
| multiple choice, independent | off in this version | |||||
| multiple choice, one winner | off in this version | |||||
| utc | version | market | bet | result | why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-05 06:12 | v86 | AI solves Millennium Prize Problem in September 2026? | NO 85 | settled -85 | fade: single 100-mana YES bet pushed 0.27->0.50; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-03 06:53 | v86 | Will Astra solve Elliot Glazer's prototype FrontierMath problem? | NO 150 | settled -150 | fade: single 9451-mana YES bet pushed 0.20->0.99; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-03 03:02 | v86 | Will DeepSeek publish open weights for a V4-Flash vision model on Hugging Face before Oct 15, 2026? | NO 45 | settled -45 | fade: single 100-mana YES bet pushed 0.44->0.84; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-03 00:04 | v86 | nS9APhsqNp | NO 150 | settled -150 | fade (blind, verify after): single 4000-mana YES bet pushed 0.35->0.96; market not in cache |
| 09-02 23:10 | v86 | Will Oracle report Q1 FY2027 revenue of at least $19.15 billion? (September 10, 2026 earnings) | NO 0 | unfilled | fade: single 250-mana YES bet pushed 0.73->0.95; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-02 17:07 | v86 | Will GPT-6 be released before the end of October 2026? | NO 85 | settled -85 | fade: single 100-mana YES bet pushed 0.61->0.84; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-02 16:34 | v86 | Is OpenAI's upcoming "Astra" model going to be called GPT-6? | NO 45 | settled -45 | fade: single 500-mana YES bet pushed 0.14->0.45; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-02 16:27 | v86 | Is OpenAI's upcoming "Astra" model going to be called GPT-6? | NO 0 | unfilled | fade: single 100-mana YES bet pushed 0.08->0.62; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
8 trades, 560 staked, realised -560, open +0 if held / +0 if sold, 2 unfilled.
No decisions traced by this version.
| utc | shove | move | whale | market | outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nothing above whale size yet. | |||||
Of 0 bets judged, 0 cleared every rule
and were faded for 560 mana; 0 were beaten to it, the move
taken by someone faster before the last rule could pass. The dashed leg on
each shove is the part of the move that was gone before this module could
act. The book above has every fade this version owns, with its era and
result; the log is traces, which rotate.
Traces are diagnostic and rotate; the trading journal is separate.
Built 2026-09-22 18:05Z.