A multiple-choice market lists its answers at about 0.50 each, and answers that resolve independently come in nearer 40% for ai, 36% for crypto, 38% for entertainment, 37% for geopolitics, 35% for other, 43% for personal, 39% for politics, 43% for sports, 41% for stocks (38% for anything unnamed). So this module buys NO across the answers of a brand-new market, up to 150 mana per market. The bet is per answer, which is exactly where the risk hides: a market's answers are often settled by one event on one day, and then a dozen small bets are one big bet wearing a dozen costumes. It is running in shadow in this version: every bet below is paper, judged like a real one but never sent.
A market marked in warning colour took six or more answers. Read those as a single position: the per-market cap limits the stake, not the number of ways one event can decide it. Each chip is one answer at the price it opened; the card's tail names the version that placed the bets.
Nothing judged yet.
| utc | version | market | bet | result | why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-05 03:48 | v86 | What will happen in the rest of September? (20 mana bonus in description) :: A song debuts at #1 on the Billbo | NO 15 | open +6 | independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50 |
| 09-05 03:48 | v86 | What will happen in the rest of September? (20 mana bonus in description) :: A Premier League player scores a | NO 14 | open -12 | independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50 |
| 09-05 03:48 | v86 | What will happen in the rest of September? (20 mana bonus in description) :: A newly released song reaches #1 | NO 11 | open +0 | independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.47 |
| 09-05 03:48 | v86 | What will happen in the rest of September? (20 mana bonus in description) :: A movie grosses at least $100 mil | NO 15 | open -13 | independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50 |
| 09-04 18:20 | v86 | Who of the unstable SMP will post this week? :: Spoke | NO 0 | unfilled | independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50 |
| 09-04 18:20 | v86 | Who of the unstable SMP will post this week? :: Parrot | NO 3 | settled -3 | independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50 |
| 09-04 18:20 | v86 | Who of the unstable SMP will post this week? :: Wembu | NO 0 | unfilled | independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50 |
| 09-04 18:20 | v86 | Who of the unstable SMP will post this week? :: Flamefrags | NO 0 | unfilled | independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50 |
| 09-02 18:26 | v86 | SEC on Novel ETFs :: Crypto ETFs singled out with new restrictions | NO 15 | open +0 | independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50 |
| 09-02 18:26 | v86 | SEC on Novel ETFs :: SEC finalize anything from this effort by Sept 1, 2027 | NO 15 | open -0 | independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50 |
| 09-02 18:26 | v86 | SEC on Novel ETFs :: Leveraged or single-stock ETFs face new limits | NO 15 | open +0 | independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50 |
| 09-02 18:26 | v86 | SEC on Novel ETFs :: SEC proposes slowing down ETF launches | NO 15 | open +1 | independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50 |
12 trades, 117 staked, realised -3, open -16 if held / -19 if sold, 3 unfilled.
12 answer-bets across 3 markets for
117 mana; realised -3 on 1
settled. Largest single market: 4 answers.
Traces are diagnostic and rotate; the trading journal is the book above.
Built 2026-09-22 18:01Z.