numeric‑tail

module 1.0 · v86 ← trader

A numeric or date market is a histogram sharing one book: "how many" or "when". This module has one opinion about them, and it is about shape — the lowest bucket is systematically overpriced, because it is listed first and early traders anchor on it. It wants at least 3 buckets and a first bucket priced between 0.02 and 0.95. It is running in shadow in this version: every bet in the book is paper, judged like a real one but never sent.

The shape it read

No numeric market judged yet.

Where candidates died · 0 markets judged

Nothing judged yet.

The book · v86

utcversionmarketbetresultwhy
09-06 10:15v86How many seats will BJP win in the 2027 Uttarakhand Assembly election? :: 0 - 29YES 5open -0lowest numeric bucket cheap at open (+20.6/100 pooled n=647); open 0.20
09-06 10:08v86How many seats will AAP win in the 2027 Punjab Assembly election? :: 0 - 39YES 5open -0lowest numeric bucket cheap at open (+20.6/100 pooled n=647); open 0.20
09-06 10:00v86How many seats will BJP win in the 2027 Uttar Pradesh Assembly election? :: 0 - 179YES 5open -0lowest numeric bucket cheap at open (+20.6/100 pooled n=647); open 0.20
09-06 03:55v86When will Madoka Magica: Walpurgis no Kaiten be officially released in the United States? :: Before Oct 2026YES 3open -3lowest numeric bucket cheap at open (+20.6/100 pooled n=647); open 0.50

4 trades, 19 staked, realised +0, open -0 if held / -3 if sold.

4 markets bet (4 journal rows) for 19 mana; realised +0 on 0 settled. Where a market's full bucket list was not recorded, the shape is drawn from the first bucket alone and the rest is filler — said on the card rather than implied by a chart that looks complete.
Traces are diagnostic and rotate; the trading journal is the book above. Built 2026-09-22 17:56Z.