close‑collector

module 1.0 · v86 ← trader

A market that is still a heavy favourite with hours left has very little time left to be wrong. This module works the last 24 hours of a market's life and takes the side the clock favours: buy YES at 0.90–0.97, buy NO at 0.03–0.15. Nothing in the middle, and nothing whose price is just an untouched ante.

The closing window

0.90–0.970.03–0.1524h12hcloseWill Julian Alvarez be sold to Barcelona by the end of the summer transfer window? 0.03 with 10.6h left (traded)Will Dylan Matthew beat Community Prediction (Metaculus Summer Cup) 0.05 with 17.8h left (traded)Will Alcaraz win the next round at the US open? C.Alcaraz vs J.Faria 0.94 with 19.4h left (traded)Will we finally pull ourselves together and avoid being wiped out by AI? 0.06 with 22.6h left (traded)Did Something Happen with GLM-5.3 Flash? 0.04 with 23.8h left (traded)Will we finally pull ourselves together and avoid being wiped out by AI? 0.05 with 6.2h left (traded)Did Something Happen with GLM-5.3 Flash? 0.05 with 11.0h left (traded)Did Something Happen with GLM-5.3 Flash? 0.05 with 10.3h left (traded)Will the August 2026 U.S. unemployment rate be at least 4.5%? 0.06 with 24.0h left (traded)Will August 2026 U.S. nonfarm payroll employment increase by at least 150,000? 0.06 with 24.0h left (traded)Will Astra release today? 0.95 with 10.1h left (traded)BSW receives at least 5% and enters the Saxony-Anhalt Landtag 0.14 with 22.8h left (traded)Will Rocco perform his signature 'Dance Floor Hump' at Greg's wedding reception? 0.92 with 23.8h left (traded)SPD above 5% in 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election? 0.95 with 23.8h left (traded)Will the AfD win an absolute majority in the state election in Saxony-Anhalt in 2026 0.11 with 8.2h left (traded)BSW receives at least 5% and enters the Saxony-Anhalt Landtag 0.91 with 2.2h left (traded)Will the address for math.eg.rego.re have a balance of more than $100 before Sep 8? 0.15 with 24.0h left (traded)Will the official high at SAN reach 85.0°F or higher on any day during Labor Day Weekend? (San Diego) 0.93 with 7.0h left (traded)Will Dan McKee be renominated for Governor of Rhode Island in 2026? 0.04 with 24.0h left (traded)Will Chris Pappas win the 2026 New Hampshire Democratic Primary for Senate? 0.95 with 24.0h left (traded)Will a new Smash Bros game be announced in the Nintendo Direct on 9/8? 0.14 with 8.9h left (traded)Will Charles have more years as King than William will have children? 0.94 with 24.0h left (traded)Will Brandenburg & Doyle's Gravity Modification Results Replicate? 0.06 with 23.8h left (traded)Will YES have more holders than NO? (24h quick fuse) 0.95 with 0.7h left (traded)Will LSU get kicked out of the SEC? 0.06 with 21.4h left (traded)Resolution criteria mandatory for Yes/No markets on 09/09/2026? 0.03 with 23.8h left (traded)9984 reaches 6800 by Sep 10? 0.95 with 22.8h left (traded)Will 50% or more of AWS developers stop coding for AWS in the next 24 months? 0.03 with 23.8h left (traded)📱 Will Apple announce a U.S. starting price of at least $2,400 for its foldable iPhone at its September 9 event? 0.10 with 0.2h left (traded)Will Hunter Biden actually launch a meme coin on September 9, 2026? 0.92 with 17.3h left (traded)NFL Week 1: Will Seattle cover -3.5 vs. New England OR will total points be 46 or more? 0.91 with 14.4h left (traded)Will YES have fewer holders than NO? (24hr quick fuse) 0.95 with 22.3h left (traded)Another politically motivated* assassination of a notable* English-speaking influencer within a year of Charlie Kirk's? 0.04 with 24.0h left (traded)Will Apple launch their first folding devices with one that costs less than $2000? 0.11 with 2.2h left (traded)

Time runs toward the close on the right-hand end, because that is the direction opportunity moves here: a market enters this module's world by running out of time, not by changing price. Dots outside the two lanes were seen and left alone. 34 trades from the book at their price and hours-to-close when placed, ringed.

Where candidates died · 0 markets judged

No decisions traced by this version.

The book · v86

utcversionmarketbetresultwhy
09-09 13:49v86Will Apple launch their first folding devices with one that costs less than $2000?NO 25settled -25longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
09-09 12:18v86Another politically motivated* assassination of a notable* English-speaking influencer within a year of CharliNO 25settled +1longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
09-09 12:18v86Will YES have fewer holders than NO? (24hr quick fuse)YES 25settled -25favorite band 0.90-0.97 within 24h of close resolves YES 99%
09-09 09:47v86NFL Week 1: Will Seattle cover -3.5 vs. New England OR will total points be 46 or more?YES 25settled -25favorite band 0.90-0.97 within 24h of close resolves YES 99%
09-09 06:46v86Will Hunter Biden actually launch a meme coin on September 9, 2026?YES 25settled +2favorite band 0.90-0.97 within 24h of close resolves YES 99%
09-09 06:46v86📱 Will Apple announce a U.S. starting price of at least $2,400 for its foldable iPhone at its September 9 evenNO 25settled +2longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
09-09 03:15v86Will 50% or more of AWS developers stop coding for AWS in the next 24 months?NO 25open -0longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
09-09 01:15v869984 reaches 6800 by Sep 10?YES 25settled +1favorite band 0.90-0.97 within 24h of close resolves YES 99%
09-08 22:14v86Resolution criteria mandatory for Yes/No markets on 09/09/2026?NO 25settled +1longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
09-08 19:44v86Will LSU get kicked out of the SEC?NO 25settled +1longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
09-08 08:36v86Will YES have more holders than NO? (24h quick fuse)YES 25settled +1favorite band 0.90-0.97 within 24h of close resolves YES 99%
09-08 07:06v86Will Brandenburg & Doyle's Gravity Modification Results Replicate?NO 25settled +1longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
09-08 06:06v86Will Charles have more years as King than William will have children?YES 25settled +1favorite band 0.90-0.97 within 24h of close resolves YES 99%
09-08 06:06v86Will a new Smash Bros game be announced in the Nintendo Direct on 9/8?NO 25settled +16longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
09-08 00:03v86Will Chris Pappas win the 2026 New Hampshire Democratic Primary for Senate?YES 25settled +1favorite band 0.90-0.97 within 24h of close resolves YES 99%
09-07 20:03v86Will Dan McKee be renominated for Governor of Rhode Island in 2026?NO 25settled +1longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
09-07 17:01v86Will the official high at SAN reach 85.0°F or higher on any day during Labor Day Weekend? (San Diego)YES 25settled +2favorite band 0.90-0.97 within 24h of close resolves YES 99%
09-07 12:00v86Will the address for math.eg.rego.re have a balance of more than $100 before Sep 8?NO 25settled +4longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
09-06 19:51v86BSW receives at least 5% and enters the Saxony-Anhalt LandtagYES 25settled +3favorite band 0.90-0.97 within 24h of close resolves YES 99%
09-06 07:45v86Will the AfD win an absolute majority in the state election in Saxony-Anhalt in 2026NO 25settled +3longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
09-06 00:14v86SPD above 5% in 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election?YES 25settled +1favorite band 0.90-0.97 within 24h of close resolves YES 99%
09-05 23:13v86Will Rocco perform his signature 'Dance Floor Hump' at Greg's wedding reception?YES 25open -0favorite band 0.90-0.97 within 24h of close resolves YES 99%
09-05 23:13v86BSW receives at least 5% and enters the Saxony-Anhalt LandtagNO 25settled +3longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
09-03 17:58v86Will Astra release today?YES 25settled +340favorite band 0.90-0.97 within 24h of close resolves YES 99%
09-03 12:25v86Will August 2026 U.S. nonfarm payroll employment increase by at least 150,000?NO 25open +0longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
09-03 12:25v86Will the August 2026 U.S. unemployment rate be at least 4.5%?NO 25open +1longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
09-03 07:52v86Did Something Happen with GLM-5.3 Flash?NO 25settled +1longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
09-03 07:10v86Did Something Happen with GLM-5.3 Flash?NO 25settled +1longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
09-03 07:10v86Will we finally pull ourselves together and avoid being wiped out by AI?NO 25settled +1longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
09-02 18:28v86Did Something Happen with GLM-5.3 Flash?NO 25settled +1longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
09-02 14:57v86Will we finally pull ourselves together and avoid being wiped out by AI?NO 25settled +1longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
09-02 13:27v86Will Dylan Matthew beat Community Prediction (Metaculus Summer Cup)NO 25settled +1longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
09-02 13:27v86Will Alcaraz win the next round at the US open? C.Alcaraz vs J.FariaYES 25settled +1favorite band 0.90-0.97 within 24h of close resolves YES 99%
09-02 13:27v86Will Julian Alvarez be sold to Barcelona by the end of the summer transfer window?NO 25settled +1longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%

34 trades, 850 staked, realised +322, open +1 if held / +1 if sold.

34 collected for 850 mana, of which 13 on the favourite side. The band edges matter more than the stake: this module is buying near-certainty, so a single wrong one costs several right ones.
Traces are diagnostic and rotate; the trading journal is separate. Built 2026-09-22 18:05Z.