Someone drops a big YES bet and shoves a market upward. On average that is overconfidence rather than news, so this module buys the other side. It only counts as a whale above 50 mana and a 10% shove, it stakes 25 and holds at most 50 per market — so it turns almost everything down. This page is mostly a record of what it turned down.
| market type | fades | staked | realised | open, if held | open, if sold | mana / fade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| binary | 40 | 1,241 | +318.4 (2 settled) | +186.2 | -34.6 | +12.62 |
| multiple choice, independent | off in this version | |||||
| multiple choice, one winner | off in this version | |||||
| utc | version | market | bet | result | why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-22 18:13 | v89-twin | Will GitHub support SHA256 Git repositories in 2026? | NO 0 | unfilled | fade: single 50-mana YES bet pushed 0.34->0.60; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-22 16:50 | v89-twin | Will AfD become the biggest party in the following german elections | NO 0 | unfilled | fade: single 218-mana YES bet pushed 0.74->0.91; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-22 16:37 | v89-twin | Will a new Claude Sonnet model be released in September 2026? | NO 45 | open -4 | fade: single 130-mana YES bet pushed 0.57->0.86; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-22 15:58 | v89-twin | TIsCu3cx29xa4QPzTkhA | NO 0 | unfilled | fade (blind, verify after): single 300-mana YES bet pushed 0.49->0.67; market not in cache |
| 09-22 14:43 | v89-twin | Paramount Skydance acquires Warner Brothers Discovery before 10/31/2026 | NO 0 | unfilled | fade: single 200-mana YES bet pushed 0.35->0.47; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-22 10:14 | v89-twin | Will a millennium problem be solved in 2027? | NO 85 | open -18 | fade: single 50-mana YES bet pushed 0.55->0.72; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-22 08:42 | v89-twin | Will GitHub support SHA256 Git repositories in 2026? | NO 0 | unfilled | fade: single 50-mana YES bet pushed 0.23->0.52; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-22 08:38 | v89-twin | Will Hakeem Jeffries be Speaker following the 2026 Election? | NO 0 | unfilled | fade: single 350-mana YES bet pushed 0.65->0.80; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-22 05:35 | v89-twin | 🇺🇸 Will the Fed raise interest rates in October 2026? | NO 0 | unfilled | fade: single 50-mana YES bet pushed 0.49->0.69; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-22 05:24 | v89-twin | Will Ukraine capture more territory than it loses to Russia in September 2026? | NO 0 | unfilled | fade: single 50-mana YES bet pushed 0.25->0.54; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-22 05:10 | v89-twin | Is the Susan Collins Polling Rumour true? | NO 0 | unfilled | fade: single 60-mana YES bet pushed 0.58->0.76; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-22 05:10 | v89-twin | Is the Susan Collins Polling Rumour true? | NO 0 | unfilled | fade: single 80-mana YES bet pushed 0.48->0.75; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-22 04:57 | v89-twin | Manifold allows you to set starting percentage for sets and multi choice by end of month? | NO 0 | unfilled | fade: single 100-mana YES bet pushed 0.57->0.82; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-22 00:48 | v89-twin | Rams win by over 5 vs giants | NO 85 | open -81 | fade: single 520-mana YES bet pushed 0.54->0.72; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-22 00:43 | v89-twin | OpenAI Claims to Solve another Millennium Prize Problem before 2027? | NO 0 | unfilled | fade: single 50-mana YES bet pushed 0.61->0.73; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-22 00:40 | v89-twin | Will an AI make a new breakthrough on the hardest math problems, as defined by Epoch AI, by the end of 2027? | NO 0 | unfilled | fade: single 1000-mana YES bet pushed 0.78->0.89; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-21 20:45 | v89-twin | Will Democrats win the 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial election by 5.00% or more? | NO 0 | unfilled | fade: single 400-mana YES bet pushed 0.42->0.61; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-21 19:09 | v89-twin | Opus 5.2 released in September? | NO 85 | settled +298 | fade: single 250-mana YES bet pushed 0.09->0.24; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-21 17:28 | v89-twin | Will a new Claude Sonnet model be released in September 2026? | NO 286 | open +88 | fade: single 82-mana YES bet pushed 0.16->0.61; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-21 17:26 | v89-twin | Will Trump take back the Panama Canal? | NO 0 | unfilled | fade: single 100-mana YES bet pushed 0.02->0.14; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-21 15:06 | v89-twin | Paramount Skydance acquires Warner Brothers Discovery before 10/31/2026 | NO 115 | open +7 | fade: single 250-mana YES bet pushed 0.07->0.21; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-21 13:21 | v89-twin | Will a millennium problem be solved in 2027? | NO 0 | unfilled | fade: single 50-mana YES bet pushed 0.62->0.76; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-21 12:01 | v89-twin | US Average Gas Price Is $4.400 or more on October 1 2026? | NO 0 | unfilled | fade: single 474-mana YES bet pushed 0.70->0.80; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-21 11:45 | v89-twin | Does 2000 ppm carbon dioxide have significant negative effects on cognition or health? | NO 0 | unfilled | fade: single 150-mana YES bet pushed 0.48->0.59; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-21 05:14 | v89-twin | 9OunqnRCP9 | NO 0 | unfilled | fade (blind, verify after): single 100-mana YES bet pushed 0.48->0.60; market not in cache |
| 09-21 04:43 | v89-twin | Will Barack Obama participate in a rally for Abdul El Sayed? | NO 0 | unfilled | fade: single 50-mana YES bet pushed 0.27->0.55; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-21 04:39 | v89-twin | Gas exceeds $4.50, and democrats control both House and Senate? | NO 0 | unfilled | fade: single 250-mana YES bet pushed 0.49->0.60; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-21 04:38 | v89-twin | Will Troy Jackson get 50% or more in the first round of the Maine senate election? | NO 85 | open -30 | fade: single 500-mana YES bet pushed 0.45->0.66; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-21 02:14 | v89-twin | Will Guadians starting pitcher Gavin Williams finish the 2026 MLB regular season with an ERA below 4.00 | NO 0 | unfilled | fade: single 75-mana YES bet pushed 0.61->0.80; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-20 21:43 | v89-twin | q8S9UNq0P2 | NO 0 | unfilled | fade (blind, verify after): single 50-mana YES bet pushed 0.53->0.71; market not in cache |
| 09-20 20:18 | v89-twin | Will any NFL game go to overtime this week? | NO 0 | unfilled | fade: single 50-mana YES bet pushed 0.67->0.78; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-20 18:24 | v89-twin | Will Dan Sullivan win re-election to Alaska's Senate seat in 2026? | NO 85 | open +65 | fade: single 250-mana YES bet pushed 0.25->0.44; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-20 18:05 | v89-twin | CATL receives license renewal for Yichun Lithium mine by end of Dec 2026? | NO 85 | open -51 | fade: single 5000-mana YES bet pushed 0.55->0.72; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-20 17:28 | v89-twin | Will Merz be German chancellor on Jan 1, 2027? | NO 85 | open -23 | fade: single 150-mana YES bet pushed 0.55->0.77; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-20 16:58 | v89-twin | k8H4PkC2pBCf1oBrAVc3 | NO 0 | unfilled | fade (blind, verify after): single 250-mana YES bet pushed 0.66->0.88; market not in cache |
| 09-20 15:39 | v89-twin | Will Ukraine capture more territory than it loses to Russia in October 2026? | NO 0 | unfilled | fade: single 50-mana YES bet pushed 0.12->0.43; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-20 01:03 | v89-twin | Will 0x876611867717dE6b6dff30da5CeF9feB620eE1ea REACH more than 100.00 USDC Base by September 21th 11:59 pm UT | NO 85 | settled +21 | fade: single 500-mana YES bet pushed 0.61->0.78; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-20 00:22 | v89-twin | 2026 Alberta referendum asks about secession from Canada? | NO 115 | open +10 | fade: single 197-mana YES bet pushed 0.38->0.49; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-19 20:54 | v89-twin | ysQ2EcCuAR | NO 0 | unfilled | fade (blind, verify after): single 268-mana YES bet pushed 0.76->0.90; market not in cache |
| 09-19 18:17 | v89-twin | 8U5SyCnlPl | NO 0 | unfilled | fade (blind, verify after): single 50-mana YES bet pushed 0.34->0.60; market not in cache |
40 trades, 1,241 staked, realised +318, open +186 if held / -35 if sold, 28 unfilled.
| utc | shove | move | whale | market | outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 182225 | -0.001 | 50 | y8LPchUU0h | pushed down | |
| 182043 | -0.000 | 50 | 461Vv3RpCpvUKKczW8Yw | pushed down | |
| 181959 | -0.006 | 50 | LPxYV8cUXZOwTUe5ufrj | pushed down | |
| 181951 | -0.016 | 139 | xqcEoAmfAw4REmIWMcqK | pushed down | |
| 181818 | +0.001 | 50 | ICnSIPIgZO | barely moved | |
| 181607 | -0.164 | 100 | hLSunc0Npn | pushed down | |
| 181519 | +0.024 | 200 | CtLp2yySsd | barely moved | |
| 181503 | -0.028 | 150 | ddAhRRLnRO | pushed down | |
| 181456 | +0.007 | 100 | N5gQ9yARSc | barely moved | |
| 181352 | +0.002 | 50 | 461Vv3RpCpvUKKczW8Yw | barely moved | |
| 181330 | - | 0 | OsP62Sctst | position full | |
| 181315 | - | 0 | 0IhucqtthC | position full | |
| 181306 | +0.257 | 50 | Will GitHub support SHA256 Git repositories in 2026? | faded 45race +158ms / ours 142ms (wait 0, decide 0, order 142) | |
| 181244 | +0.001 | 200 | dOow8KQyv8nv7NFHnFNf | barely moved | |
| 181231 | -0.010 | 250 | llUthdEgZC | pushed down | |
| 181200 | +0.000 | 50 | 5EyEO0nZRu | barely moved | |
| 180818 | +0.004 | 50 | URcRS6dCIU | barely moved | |
| 180653 | -0.091 | 500 | 19DC93PrCMCTQWGyffgp | pushed down | |
| 180559 | +0.021 | 50 | RQ82y9Uhc2 | barely moved | |
| 180559 | +0.003 | 277 | I9QNz9Q2L2 | barely moved | |
| 180527 | +0.022 | 50 | RQ82y9Uhc2 | barely moved | |
| 180453 | -0.211 | 60 | ELhsC5stUC | pushed down | |
| 180413 | +0.004 | 100 | hISQySnLnu | barely moved | |
| 180152 | -0.041 | 250 | tp90USUpZ5 | pushed down | |
| 180101 | +0.053 | 100 | QdhyScACtC | barely moved | |
| 180022 | +0.003 | 125 | UA9tQII8R0 | barely moved | |
| 180012 | +0.003 | 138 | UA9tQII8R0 | barely moved | |
| 175938 | +0.045 | 350 | dznRAEEysZ | barely moved | |
| 175929 | +0.035 | 1,750 | ICnSIPIgZO | barely moved | |
| 175915 | +0.073 | 1,250 | ICnSIPIgZO | barely moved | |
| 175909 | +0.081 | 600 | ICnSIPIgZO | barely moved | |
| 175824 | -0.021 | 465 | tp90USUpZ5 | pushed down | |
| 175803 | +0.008 | 200 | SyhgEZC68s | barely moved | |
| 175723 | -0.020 | 100 | LyhR8090l8 | pushed down | |
| 175621 | -0.032 | 50 | ICnSIPIgZO | pushed down | |
| 175523 | +0.032 | 400 | UA9tQII8R0 | barely moved | |
| 175518 | +0.017 | 300 | UA9tQII8R0 | barely moved | |
| 175306 | +0.078 | 500 | ICnSIPIgZO | barely moved | |
| 175234 | - | 0 | GPT 6 Sol released today? | too short | |
| 175234 | -0.043 | 67 | ICnSIPIgZO | pushed down | |
| 175219 | +0.011 | 50 | hUlz6gshZA | barely moved | |
| 175217 | +0.086 | 200 | UA9tQII8R0 | barely moved | |
| 174749 | +0.007 | 50 | AtFME96xyYes2Y7OQlJT | barely moved | |
| 174424 | -0.009 | 666 | BpoEJNtlQoDBpfjBmK0y | pushed down | |
| 174420 | +0.065 | 50 | lnqGuQF5rDoYB1fSOuvd | barely moved | |
| 174420 | -0.068 | 83 | lnqGuQF5rDoYB1fSOuvd | pushed down | |
| 174412 | -0.017 | 100 | lnqGuQF5rDoYB1fSOuvd | pushed down | |
| 174117 | -0.001 | 79 | BpoEJNtlQoDBpfjBmK0y | pushed down | |
| 174116 | -0.010 | 525 | BpoEJNtlQoDBpfjBmK0y | pushed down | |
| 173539 | -0.002 | 50 | llUthdEgZC | pushed down | |
| 173537 | +0.069 | 63 | UA9tQII8R0 | barely moved | |
| 173456 | +0.079 | 480 | 9uSOIZNcSI | barely moved | |
| 173343 | +0.018 | 50 | UA9tQII8R0 | barely moved | |
| 173119 | -0.010 | 156 | Q64BBTJSHWQfhovq5bnA | pushed down | |
| 173055 | -0.013 | 50 | M70bmZbSax0ycaju5OM0 | pushed down | |
| 172913 | -0.042 | 67 | CE0gsR8996 | pushed down | |
| 172912 | -0.023 | 500 | S2ghII2gLd | pushed down | |
| 172301 | - | 50 | 🐻 Who will be the CHUBBIEST CHONKER of Fat Bear Week 2026? 🐻 | type off | |
| 171951 | -0.018 | 50 | ULun8EOAAn | pushed down | |
| 171939 | +0.002 | 200 | zIjFL4cxLmRUbeRKdgCh | barely moved | |
| 171907 | -0.033 | 50 | UA9tQII8R0 | pushed down | |
| 171858 | -0.306 | 150 | UA9tQII8R0 | pushed down | |
| 171637 | +0.006 | 50 | AN6lnyQdcI | barely moved | |
| 171554 | -0.003 | 400 | N922USQPL5 | pushed down | |
| 171455 | +0.036 | 50 | NpcPl6PE5E | barely moved | |
| 171433 | +0.024 | 50 | NpcPl6PE5E | barely moved | |
| 171402 | +0.031 | 50 | NpcPl6PE5E | barely moved | |
| 171353 | +0.046 | 50 | NpcPl6PE5E | barely moved | |
| 171344 | - | 250 | When will OpenAI release a robotics model? | type off | |
| 171340 | +0.012 | 100 | Qgg9Rc8PIy | barely moved | |
| 171333 | +0.034 | 200 | np2IAtO9Eh | barely moved | |
| 171213 | +0.015 | 100 | q0NZAztLPs | barely moved | |
| 171142 | +0.039 | 100 | q0NZAztLPs | barely moved | |
| 170858 | -0.073 | 100 | Z9tp8ORlpl | pushed down | |
| 170855 | +0.003 | 131 | tRUgzgUnhc | barely moved | |
| 170753 | +0.020 | 50 | dnL9sR88ns | barely moved | |
| 170717 | -0.543 | 50 | 6R0t5sLN2p | pushed down | |
| 170622 | +0.029 | 100 | dsSUI5LPOA | barely moved | |
| 170147 | +0.015 | 105 | dssZtEtZ9n | barely moved | |
| 165156 | +0.013 | 50 | PlRCt0hEEl | barely moved | |
| 165149 | +0.013 | 50 | PlRCt0hEEl | barely moved | |
| 165057 | - | 52 | lRLnIOSQ6E | ours | |
| 165013 | -0.050 | 500 | znZuBu5VDD1vPA4b0ryu | pushed down | |
| 165004 | +0.168 | 218 | Will AfD become the biggest party in the following german elections | faded 85race +328ms / ours 290ms (wait 0, decide 1, order 289) | |
| 164541 | -0.019 | 500 | ztUp00zh26 | pushed down | |
| 164526 | -0.005 | 220 | 2chAASdEUs | pushed down | |
| 164402 | - | 0 | p9nRl0pypN | price extreme | |
| 164227 | -0.171 | 50 | 6R0t5sLN2p | pushed down | |
| 164116 | -0.059 | 250 | lRLnIOSQ6E | pushed down | |
| 164113 | +0.019 | 50 | dznRAEEysZ | barely moved | |
| 164110 | -0.040 | 150 | lRLnIOSQ6E | pushed down | |
| 164106 | -0.038 | 150 | lRLnIOSQ6E | pushed down | |
| 164103 | -0.027 | 100 | lRLnIOSQ6E | pushed down | |
| 164055 | -0.046 | 50 | 6R0t5sLN2p | pushed down | |
| 164044 | -0.258 | 50 | 6R0t5sLN2p | pushed down | |
| 164021 | -0.258 | 50 | 6R0t5sLN2p | pushed down | |
| 164010 | -0.035 | 3,000 | ztUp00zh26 | pushed down | |
| 163758 | +0.287 | 130 | Will a new Claude Sonnet model be released in September 2026? | faded 45race +175ms / ours 327ms (wait 0, decide 1, order 326) | |
| 163755 | -0.008 | 50 | QdhyScACtC | pushed down | |
| 163624 | -0.095 | 100 | cO9QZN6L9t | pushed down | |
| 163617 | -0.103 | 50 | cO9QZN6L9t | pushed down | |
| 163425 | -0.004 | 1,500 | uISNlAqC2E | pushed down | |
| 163332 | +0.000 | 100 | CL56c9sqQp | barely moved | |
| 163106 | -0.132 | 100 | Z9tp8ORlpl | pushed down | |
| 162513 | +0.009 | 200 | tRUgzgUnhc | barely moved | |
| 162303 | +0.001 | 93 | SCnZAUUzEP | barely moved | |
| 162220 | -0.024 | 100 | A6O0SUA58N | pushed down | |
| 162106 | +0.004 | 250 | CE5qOc6g2O | barely moved | |
| 162054 | +0.003 | 105 | A319ydGB1B7f4PMOROL3 | barely moved | |
| 162040 | +0.001 | 65 | CE5qOc6g2O | barely moved | |
| 162039 | +0.005 | 250 | CE5qOc6g2O | barely moved | |
| 162004 | +0.003 | 105 | A319ydGB1B7f4PMOROL3 | barely moved | |
| 161918 | +0.003 | 105 | A319ydGB1B7f4PMOROL3 | barely moved | |
| 161850 | -0.020 | 2,000 | A319ydGB1B7f4PMOROL3 | pushed down | |
| 161815 | +0.010 | 50 | 2qZqtN862U | barely moved | |
| 161800 | +0.004 | 50 | AN6lnyQdcI | barely moved | |
| 161633 | +0.001 | 50 | CE5qOc6g2O | barely moved | |
| 161604 | -0.002 | 100 | 0XBGzrBjZAUzP7Mx2NCW | pushed down | |
| 161532 | -0.011 | 150 | pZpEqPAq5U | pushed down | |
| 161530 | -0.014 | 50 | dnL9sR88ns | pushed down | |
| 161521 | -0.011 | 150 | gRpZ9qqsEN | pushed down | |
| 161443 | - | 0 | 89qCL88usS | price extreme | |
| 161439 | +0.171 | 50 | How many hours will I study on 23 September 2026? | wrong type | |
| 161434 | +0.031 | 50 | Spycn8CsdA | barely moved | |
| 161408 | +0.011 | 50 | nZsucEQ8gQ | barely moved | |
| 161338 | +0.004 | 50 | tdA9NqRnpZ | barely moved | |
| 161333 | +0.061 | 100 | AcAn56pLAd | barely moved | |
| 161330 | +0.064 | 100 | AcAn56pLAd | barely moved | |
| 161153 | -0.026 | 50 | EURNs8lnNl | pushed down | |
| 161058 | +0.012 | 250 | C0lt2RUPSL | barely moved | |
| 161045 | -0.035 | 50 | JikZ1T5MkKvA95jtyCEn | pushed down | |
| 160936 | +0.007 | 300 | dssZtEtZ9n | barely moved | |
| 160920 | -0.003 | 1,250 | 5gLqZ9hdIp | pushed down | |
| 160917 | -0.032 | 125 | QdhyScACtC | pushed down | |
| 160916 | -0.027 | 100 | QdhyScACtC | pushed down | |
| 160916 | -0.027 | 100 | QdhyScACtC | pushed down | |
| 160915 | - | 1,000 | Who will Trump announce as his new AI Czar? | type off | |
| 160906 | +0.018 | 100 | UA9tQII8R0 | barely moved | |
| 160854 | +0.005 | 150 | dssZtEtZ9n | barely moved | |
| 160843 | +0.015 | 150 | dssZtEtZ9n | barely moved | |
| 160839 | +0.026 | 250 | dssZtEtZ9n | barely moved | |
| 160833 | +0.029 | 250 | dssZtEtZ9n | barely moved | |
| 160659 | +0.001 | 50 | BpoEJNtlQoDBpfjBmK0y | barely moved | |
| 160624 | +0.011 | 50 | q0dlQLsl9A | barely moved | |
| 160500 | +0.010 | 500 | RqCuspq8Nn | barely moved | |
| 160443 | +0.034 | 2,000 | ULun8EOAAn | barely moved | |
| 160442 | - | 0 | ULzPA0ul0l | price extreme | |
| 160437 | - | 0 | Both Opus and Sol released this week? | wrong phase | |
| 160417 | - | 0 | tRUgzgUnhc | price extreme | |
| 160354 | +0.002 | 50 | NIlsOpzZuI | barely moved | |
| 160347 | +0.014 | 50 | PlRCt0hEEl | barely moved | |
| 160341 | +0.015 | 50 | PlRCt0hEEl | barely moved | |
| 160328 | -0.088 | 50 | UA9tQII8R0 | pushed down | |
| 160325 | -0.099 | 50 | UA9tQII8R0 | pushed down | |
| 160311 | +0.024 | 464 | UA9tQII8R0 | barely moved | |
| 160253 | -0.006 | 3,500 | sf9wxu6w5b | pushed down | |
| 160245 | +0.012 | 468 | SCnZAUUzEP | barely moved | |
| 160242 | +0.005 | 91 | SCnZAUUzEP | barely moved | |
| 160241 | +0.010 | 433 | SCnZAUUzEP | barely moved | |
| 160238 | +0.017 | 559 | SCnZAUUzEP | barely moved |
Showing the newest 160 of 3,572 whale-sized bets.
Of 3,572 bets judged, 32 cleared every rule
and were faded for 1,241 mana; 0 were beaten to it, the move
taken by someone faster before the last rule could pass. The dashed leg on
each shove is the part of the move that was gone before this module could
act. The book above has every fade this version owns, with its era and
result; the log is traces, which rotate.
Traces are diagnostic and rotate; the trading journal is separate.
Built 2026-09-22 18:27Z.