codex‑open

module 1.3 · v89-twin ← trader

Every other module reads a number off the venue and applies a rule. This one asks gpt-5.6-luna what a question actually resolves at, without showing it the price, and bets only when the answer and the market disagree by 20% or more. Most of the time they agree, and agreement is not a trade — so most of this page is opinions the module formed and did not act on.

What the model thought, against what the market said

0.00.00.20.20.50.50.80.81.01.0market pricemodel estimateagrees — no tradeWill England’s earnings-to-house-price ratio top 12.5% in 2040? market 0.50, model 0.46Will at least 2 Big 12 teams make the 2026-2027 College Football Playoff market 0.49, model 0.30Will a new Claude Sonnet model be released in September 2026? market 0.50, model 0.28who will win HSBT? :: Outstanding Orangutangs market 0.14, model 0.50who will win HSBT? :: Iolani market 0.14, model 0.38who will win HSBT? :: ASFA market 0.14, model 0.25who will win HSBT? :: MSJ A market 0.14, model 0.50who will win HSBT? :: MSJ B market 0.14, model 0.50who will win HSBT? :: NOHO A market 0.14, model 0.50who will win HSBT? :: BRIDGELAND market 0.14, model 0.50Which ticket will win the 2026 FIDE presidential election? :: Jan Henric Buettner / Malcolm Pein market 0.25, model 0.17Which ticket will win the 2026 FIDE presidential election? :: Wadim Rosenstein / Gordon Tang market 0.25, model 0.18Which ticket will win the 2026 FIDE presidential election? :: Timur Turlov / Viswanathan Anand market 0.25, model 0.64Which ticket will win the 2026 FIDE presidential election? :: None of the above market 0.25, model 0.02Best Picture nominees? (2027 Oscars) :: The Odyssey market 0.96, model 0.97Best Picture nominees? (2027 Oscars) :: La Bola Negra market 0.84, model 0.90Best Picture nominees? (2027 Oscars) :: Wild Horse Nine market 0.75, model 0.72Best Picture nominees? (2027 Oscars) :: Project Hail Mary market 0.69, model 0.84Best Picture nominees? (2027 Oscars) :: The Debut market 0.50, model 0.64Best Picture nominees? (2027 Oscars) :: Fjord market 0.50, model 0.52Best Picture nominees? (2027 Oscars) :: Obsession market 0.50, model 0.30Best Picture nominees? (2027 Oscars) :: Club Kid market 0.50, model 0.27Best Picture nominees? (2027 Oscars) :: All of a Sudden market 0.50, model 0.38Best Picture nominees? (2027 Oscars) :: Digger market 0.50, model 0.53Best Picture nominees? (2027 Oscars) :: Being Heumann market 0.50, model 0.30Best Picture nominees? (2027 Oscars) :: Elsinore market 0.50, model 0.40Best Picture nominees? (2027 Oscars) :: Artificial market 0.50, model 0.28Best Picture nominees? (2027 Oscars) :: The Social Reckoning market 0.50, model 0.22Best Picture nominees? (2027 Oscars) :: Primetime market 0.50, model 0.21Best Picture nominees? (2027 Oscars) :: Dune: Part Three market 0.61, model 0.24Best Picture nominees? (2027 Oscars) :: The Invite market 0.50, model 0.14Best Picture nominees? (2027 Oscars) :: I Play Rocky market 0.50, model 0.20Best Picture nominees? (2027 Oscars) :: Behemoth market 0.50, model 0.06Best Picture nominees? (2027 Oscars) :: You Can See Everything market 0.50, model 0.08Best Picture nominees? (2027 Oscars) :: Michael market 0.50, model 0.08Best Picture nominees? (2027 Oscars) :: Possible Love market 0.50, model 0.12Duskbloods release date? :: October market 0.20, model 0.22Duskbloods release date? :: November market 0.20, model 0.28Duskbloods release date? :: December market 0.20, model 0.24Duskbloods release date? :: Not in 2026 market 0.20, model 0.30Duskbloods release date? :: September market 0.20, model 0.06Will Mistral AI and/or its investors sue Juan Branco for Defamation in 2026 market 0.50, model 0.14Will the MAGA ‘Moderates’ all lose reelection? market 0.35, model 0.115 Millennium Prize problems solved by the end of 2026? market 0.50, model 0.03Holder Battle: YES vs NO market 0.50, model 0.67Will James Talarico be leading by 3% or more in the upcoming YouGov Poll? market 0.50, model 0.58Will there be a Scorigami in week 3 of the 2025-26 NFL season? market 0.50, model 0.00When will SSI announce a model? :: Q1 2027 market 0.06, model 0.06When will SSI announce a model? :: Q3 2027 market 0.06, model 0.14When will SSI announce a model? :: Q1 2028 market 0.06, model 0.14When will SSI announce a model? :: Q2 2028 market 0.06, model 0.16When will SSI announce a model? :: Q3 2028 market 0.06, model 0.13When will SSI announce a model? :: Q4 2028 market 0.06, model 0.08When will SSI announce a model? :: Q1 2029 market 0.06, model 0.13When will SSI announce a model? :: Q2 2029 market 0.06, model 0.07When will SSI announce a model? :: Q3 2029 market 0.06, model 0.05When will SSI announce a model? :: Q4 2029 market 0.06, model 0.11When will SSI announce a model? :: Q4 2026 market 0.06, model 0.34When will SSI announce a model? :: Later market 0.20, model 0.39When will SSI announce a model? :: Q2 2027 market 0.06, model 0.23When will SSI announce a model? :: Q4 2027 market 0.06, model 0.22Will $500 Obamacare rebate checks start going out by Oct. 31 2026? (ACA) market 0.45, model 0.68Will OpenAI publicly claim a solution to a SECOND Millennium Prize Problem by November 30, 2026? market 0.35, model 0.10EPL: Will Manchester City beat Liverpool? market 0.47, model 0.43Will the 2027 presidential French elections be decided at the first round? market 0.21, model 0.00Will Talarico underperform 2024 Kamala in any county? market 0.45, model 0.99Who will be the next (non-interim) leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia? :: Iain Black market 0.14, model 0.24Who will be the next (non-interim) leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia? :: Yuri Fulmer market 0.14, model 0.18Who will be the next (non-interim) leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia? :: Harman Bhangu market 0.14, model 0.24Who will be the next (non-interim) leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia? :: Caroline Elliott market 0.14, model 0.34Who will be the next (non-interim) leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia? :: James Moore market 0.14, model 0.02Who will be the next (non-interim) leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia? :: Trevor Halford market 0.14, model 0.02Will Democrat Chris Pappas win New Hampshire Senate election by 10% or more? market 0.50, model 0.17Will Democrat Peggy Flanagan win Minnesota Senate election by 10% or more? market 0.30, model 0.18MLB: Orioles vs Blue Jays market 0.50, model 0.46Will @manifoldpolitics create 5 or more markets in October 2026 market 0.50, model 0.12How will I rate Vilenkin 1994? (+free lottery) market 0.50, model 0.50MLB: Tigers vs Nationals market 0.50, model 0.54MLB: Giants vs Twins market 0.50, model 0.44Abdul El Sayed vote percent in Oakland County? :: At least 50% market 0.50, model 0.77Abdul El Sayed vote percent in Oakland County? :: At least 52% market 0.50, model 0.55Abdul El Sayed vote percent in Oakland County? :: At least 56% market 0.50, model 0.36Abdul El Sayed vote percent in Oakland County? :: At least 60% market 0.50, model 0.13Abdul El Sayed vote percent in Oakland County? :: At least 54% market 0.50, model 1.00Abdul El Sayed vote percent in Oakland County? :: At least 58% market 0.50, model 0.00Abdul El Sayed vote percent in Oakland County? :: At least 64% market 0.50, model 0.01Abdul El Sayed vote percent in Oakland County? :: At least 62% market 0.50, model 0.03James Talarico Starr County vote percent? :: At least 50% market 0.50, model 0.64James Talarico Starr County vote percent? :: At least 52% market 0.50, model 0.57James Talarico Starr County vote percent? :: At least 54% market 0.50, model 0.51James Talarico Starr County vote percent? :: At least 56% market 0.50, model 0.47James Talarico Starr County vote percent? :: At least 58% market 0.50, model 0.55James Talarico Starr County vote percent? :: At least 60% market 0.50, model 0.32James Talarico Starr County vote percent? :: At least 62% market 0.50, model 0.38James Talarico Starr County vote percent? :: At least 64% market 0.50, model 0.18Will @lolipop start the call at 7:00 pm tonight or nah? market 0.50, model 0.50Will xAI/Grok be on the Felonybench scoreboard by end of 2026? market 0.49, model 0.30Will the United States become a dictatorship by 2400? market 0.20, model 0.53Will the world become a global far-right dictatorship regime before 2400? market 0.20, model 0.03Will Trump, any of his cabinet, or any official government account mention aella by name in a tweet by January 1 2028? market 0.50, model 0.03hsbst redone winner :: msj b market 0.48, model 0.50hsbst redone winner :: tmsa market 0.52, model 0.46Will Ronaldo score in the next match market 0.50, model 0.45which teams will qual for nationals from GA this year :: northview hs market 0.50, model 0.55which teams will qual for nationals from GA this year :: brookwood hs market 0.50, model 0.60which teams will qual for nationals from GA this year :: chatahoochee hs market 0.50, model 0.55which teams will qual for nationals from GA this year :: fsa hs market 0.50, model 0.62which teams will qual for nationals from GA this year :: walton hs market 0.50, model 0.56which teams will qual for nationals from GA this year :: ia hs market 0.50, model 0.50which teams will qual for nationals from GA this year :: gsmst hs market 0.50, model 0.12Brian Schatz senate majority leader after 2026 elections? market 0.23, model 0.07NFL Week 2: Will the Los Angeles Rams beat the New York Giants by 7 or more points? market 0.51, model 0.48Will Die Linke successfully seize at least 200,000 housing units before EOY 2031? market 0.35, model 0.28Will public superforecaster AIs give great advice? market 0.50, model 0.52Will the Magic the Gathering movie make over 350 million at the global box office? market 0.50, model 0.18Which three teams are relegated from Finnish Hockey League in 2027? :: Jokerit market 0.50, model 0.31Which three teams are relegated from Finnish Hockey League in 2027? :: Jukurit market 0.50, model 0.78Will the US and China announce an AI incident notification mechanism at the Trump–Xi summit? market 0.36, model 0.30Which three teams are relegated from Finnish Hockey League in 2027? :: TPS market 0.50, model 0.29Which three teams are relegated from Finnish Hockey League in 2027? :: Ässät market 0.50, model 0.08Which three teams are relegated from Finnish Hockey League in 2027? :: Lukko market 0.50, model 0.09Which three teams are relegated from Finnish Hockey League in 2027? :: Sport market 0.50, model 0.09Which three teams are relegated from Finnish Hockey League in 2027? :: KalPa market 0.50, model 0.11Which three teams are relegated from Finnish Hockey League in 2027? :: Pelicans market 0.50, model 0.12Which three teams are relegated from Finnish Hockey League in 2027? :: HIFK market 0.50, model 0.14Which three teams are relegated from Finnish Hockey League in 2027? :: HPK market 0.50, model 0.14Which three teams are relegated from Finnish Hockey League in 2027? :: KooKoo market 0.50, model 0.14Which three teams are relegated from Finnish Hockey League in 2027? :: SaiPa market 0.50, model 0.17Which three teams are relegated from Finnish Hockey League in 2027? :: Kiekko-Espoo market 0.50, model 0.18Which three teams are relegated from Finnish Hockey League in 2027? :: Tappara market 0.50, model 0.02Which three teams are relegated from Finnish Hockey League in 2027? :: Ilves market 0.50, model 0.03Which three teams are relegated from Finnish Hockey League in 2027? :: JYP market 0.50, model 0.04Which three teams are relegated from Finnish Hockey League in 2027? :: Kärpät market 0.50, model 0.06US Average Gas Price Is $4.4500 or more on September 24 2026? market 0.48, model 0.86US Average Gas Price Is $4.3500 or more on September 28 2026? market 0.55, model 0.78Market Resolves to 54% market 0.54, model 0.50Bitcoin $87,500 in September 2026? market 0.52, model 0.53Tech Stock Closing Prices on Friday 25 Sep 2026 :: Nvidia closes at 225.00 or higher? market 0.50, model 0.44Tech Stock Closing Prices on Friday 25 Sep 2026 :: SpaceX closes at 152.00 or higher? market 0.50, model 0.45Tech Stock Closing Prices on Friday 25 Sep 2026 :: Microsoft closes at 500.00 or higher? market 0.50, model 0.30Tech Stock Closing Prices on Friday 25 Sep 2026 :: Tesla closes at 370.00 or higher? market 0.50, model 0.41Tech Stock Closing Prices on Friday 25 Sep 2026 :: Apple closes at 333.00 or higher? market 0.50, model 0.57Tech Stock Closing Prices on Friday 25 Sep 2026 :: Alphabet Class C closes at 350.00 or higher? market 0.50, model 0.32Will either Trump or Xi explicitly mention Taiwan during the upcoming Trump-Xi summit? :: No, Taiwan will not be explicitly mentioned market 0.50, model 0.18Will either Trump or Xi explicitly mention Taiwan during the upcoming Trump-Xi summit? :: Yes, Taiwan will be explicitly mentioned market 0.50, model 0.74Japan vs India T20 cricket match market 0.11, model 0.50Will The Odyssey receive the most Oscar nominations? market 0.72, model 0.68NFL Week 3: Will the Green Bay Packers beat the Atlanta Falcons by 6 or more points? market 0.54, model 0.55Will Ukraine capture more territory than it loses to Russia in November 2026? market 0.39, model 0.31EPL: Will there be OVER 2.5 total goals in Arsenal vs. Leeds? market 0.50, model 0.57EPL: Will Brentford beat Aston Villa? market 0.45, model 0.39Will my passport be okay? market 0.50, model 0.66Will SPCX close at $150.00 or higher on Friday, October 23, 2026? (Closes early) market 0.47, model 0.55Will Wikipedia get blocked in Russia by the end of 2026 market 0.43, model 0.32Will the movie "The Legend of Zelda" (2027) gross more than a billion dollars at the worldwide box office? market 0.50, model 0.32Will I be productive on...? :: Monday Sep. 21 market 0.50, model 0.30Will I be productive on...? :: Tuesday Sep. 22 market 0.50, model 0.38Will I be productive on...? :: Wednesday Sep. 23 market 0.50, model 0.32Will I be productive on...? :: Thursday Sep. 24 market 0.50, model 0.36Will I be productive on...? :: Friday Sep. 25 market 0.50, model 0.30Will I be productive on...? :: Saturday Sep. 26 market 0.50, model 0.29Will I be productive on...? :: Sunday Sep. 27 market 0.50, model 0.32Who will win the 2026 League of Legends World Championship? :: Dplus KIA market 0.06, model 0.04Who will win the 2026 League of Legends World Championship? :: Team Secret Whales market 0.06, model 0.00Who will win the 2026 League of Legends World Championship? :: CTBC Flying Oyster market 0.06, model 0.01Who will win the 2026 League of Legends World Championship? :: Movistar KOI market 0.06, model 0.03Who will win the 2026 League of Legends World Championship? :: Anyone's Legend market 0.06, model 0.02Who will win the 2026 League of Legends World Championship? :: Bilibili Gaming market 0.06, model 0.13Who will win the 2026 League of Legends World Championship? :: Top Esports market 0.06, model 0.04Who will win the 2026 League of Legends World Championship? :: Invictus Gaming market 0.06, model 0.04Who will win the 2026 League of Legends World Championship? :: MVK Esports market 0.06, model 0.01We get distribution market on Manifold by EOY 2027? market 0.50, model 0.35Who will win the 2026 League of Legends World Championship? :: Cloud9 KIA market 0.06, model 0.00Who will win the 2026 League of Legends World Championship? :: Team Liquid Alienware market 0.06, model 0.03Who will win the 2026 League of Legends World Championship? :: Karmine Corp market 0.06, model 0.03Who will win the 2026 League of Legends World Championship? :: T1 market 0.06, model 0.45Who will win the 2026 League of Legends World Championship? :: Gen. G market 0.06, model 0.40Who will win the 2026 League of Legends World Championship? :: G2 Esports market 0.06, model 0.22Who will win the 2026 League of Legends World Championship? :: Hanwha Life Esports market 0.06, model 0.18NFL Week 3: Will the total combined score of the Ravens vs. Cowboys game be OVER 52.5 points? market 0.50, model 0.50UK Autumn Budget 2026: will it freeze fuel duty or cancel a scheduled rise? market 0.64, model 0.88UK Autumn Budget 2026: will any main capital gains tax rate rise? market 0.49, model 0.60UK Autumn Budget 2026: will the 'mansion tax' threshold be set below £2 million? market 0.35, model 0.55UK Autumn Budget 2026: will the income tax personal allowance rise above £12,570? market 0.22, model 0.31UK Autumn Budget 2026: will the CGT uplift on death be abolished or restricted? market 0.20, model 0.30UK Autumn Budget 2026: will CGT rates be fully aligned with income tax rates? market 0.19, model 0.28UK Autumn Budget 2026: will mayors get a new tax power or a share of a national tax? market 0.45, model 0.93UK Autumn Budget 2026: will a land value tax be announced? market 0.06, model 0.09UK Autumn Budget 2026: will an annual wealth tax be announced? market 0.19, model 0.15UK Autumn Budget 2026: will dividend, savings or property income tax rates rise further? market 0.22, model 0.24UK Autumn Budget 2026: will income tax rates, employee NICs and VAT rates all stay unchanged? market 0.75, model 0.84UK Autumn Budget 2026: will NICs be extended to rental, investment or pension income? market 0.18, model 0.24UK Autumn Budget 2026: will employer NICs be cut or the secondary threshold raised? market 0.22, model 0.18UK Autumn Budget 2026: will the pension tax-free lump sum be cut or capped lower? market 0.20, model 0.18UK Autumn Budget 2026: will any working-age benefit be cut or uprated below CPI? market 0.24, model 0.27UK Autumn Budget 2026: will Local Housing Allowance rates be raised for April 2027? market 0.30, model 0.30UK Autumn Budget 2026: will VAT on domestic gas be cut below 5%? market 0.25, model 0.14Will the Commons Library's Autumn Budget 2026 reaction briefing cite PolicyEngine? market 0.17, model 0.16UK Autumn Budget 2026: will 0% VAT on home electricity be extended past March 2027? market 0.50, model 0.34Will PolicyEngine publish its UK Autumn Budget analysis by 07:00 GMT on 29 Oct? market 0.50, model 0.68UK Autumn Budget 2026: will the OBR report headroom of £10bn or more against the stability rule? market 0.45, model 0.46Will the UK extend the National Living Wage to 20-year-olds from April 2027? market 0.40, model 0.58UK Autumn Budget 2026: will holiday lets be moved from business rates to council tax? market 0.25, model 0.24UK Autumn Budget 2026: will a new first-time buyer ISA replace the Lifetime ISA? market 0.35, model 0.90UK Autumn Budget 2026: will the cap on farm and business inheritance tax relief be eased? market 0.30, model 0.12UK Autumn Budget 2026: will business rates relief be widened beyond pubs and music venues? market 0.45, model 0.30UK Autumn Budget 2026: will the Energy Profits Levy be raised or extended? market 0.35, model 0.58UK Autumn Budget 2026: will any gambling duty rate rise beyond the April 2027 changes? market 0.45, model 0.57UK Autumn Budget 2026: will taxes on banks be increased? market 0.45, model 0.40NFL Week 3: Will the Cincinnati Bengals beat the Pittsburgh Steelers by at least 4 points? market 0.50, model 0.52UK Autumn Budget 2026: will a £2 bus fare cap be funded beyond the end of 2027? market 0.25, model 0.58NFL Week 3: Will the Jacksonville Jaguars beat the New England Patriots by at least 4 points? market 0.47, model 0.42Will the term Super Intelligents replace Artificial intelligence before EOY market 0.43, model 0.12NFL Week 3: Will the New York Giants beat the Tennessee Titans by at least 7 points? market 0.50, model 0.41Old School Runescape Summit/Roadmap Props :: Menaphos release/access planned for 2027 market 0.70, model 0.43Old School Runescape Summit/Roadmap Props :: New OSRS Leagues planned for 2027 market 0.50, model 0.62Old School Runescape Summit/Roadmap Props :: Announced continuation to Fairytale questline planned for 20 market 0.40, model 0.15On what day will the New York Times (NYT) project the winner of the House for the 2026 Midterms? :: November 5th market 0.07, model 0.12Old School Runescape Summit/Roadmap Props :: Announced continuation to Mahjaratt questline planned for 20 market 0.30, model 0.48Old School Runescape Summit/Roadmap Props :: Announced continuation to Dwarf questline planned for 2027 market 0.10, model 0.14On what day will the New York Times (NYT) project the winner of the House for the 2026 Midterms? :: November 8th market 0.11, model 0.12On what day will the New York Times (NYT) project the winner of the House for the 2026 Midterms? :: November 9th market 0.11, model 0.06Old School Runescape Summit/Roadmap Props :: Announced continuation to Kourend questline planned for 2027 market 0.20, model 0.36Old School Runescape Summit/Roadmap Props :: Varlamore Achievement Diaries announced market 0.50, model 0.22Old School Runescape Summit/Roadmap Props :: October 2026 release for Raids 4 confirmed market 0.70, model 0.08Old School Runescape Summit/Roadmap Props :: Announced continuation to Sea Slug questline planned for 202 market 0.20, model 0.58On what day will the New York Times (NYT) project the winner of the House for the 2026 Midterms? :: November 11th market 0.11, model 0.08On what day will the New York Times (NYT) project the winner of the House for the 2026 Midterms? :: November 12th market 0.11, model 0.16On what day will the New York Times (NYT) project the winner of the House for the 2026 Midterms? :: November 10th market 0.11, model 0.22On what day will the New York Times (NYT) project the winner of the House for the 2026 Midterms? :: November 4th or earlier market 0.08, model 0.58On what day will the New York Times (NYT) project the winner of the House for the 2026 Midterms? :: November 13th or later market 0.11, model 0.42On what day will the New York Times (NYT) project the winner of the House for the 2026 Midterms? :: November 7th market 0.11, model 0.27On what day will the New York Times (NYT) project the winner of the House for the 2026 Midterms? :: November 6th market 0.11, model 0.25🐻 Who will be the CHUBBIEST CHONKER of Fat Bear Week 2026? 🐻 :: 284 "Electra" market 0.06, model 0.04🐻 Who will be the CHUBBIEST CHONKER of Fat Bear Week 2026? 🐻 :: 428 "Studious" market 0.06, model 0.04🐻 Who will be the CHUBBIEST CHONKER of Fat Bear Week 2026? 🐻 :: 131 "Marshmallow" market 0.06, model 0.04🐻 Who will be the CHUBBIEST CHONKER of Fat Bear Week 2026? 🐻 :: 910 market 0.06, model 0.04🐻 Who will be the CHUBBIEST CHONKER of Fat Bear Week 2026? 🐻 :: 694 market 0.06, model 0.01Will Bitcoin outperform the S&P500 any year over the next ten years? market 0.50, model 0.97🐻 Who will be the CHUBBIEST CHONKER of Fat Bear Week 2026? 🐻 :: 89 "Backpack" market 0.06, model 0.11🐻 Who will be the CHUBBIEST CHONKER of Fat Bear Week 2026? 🐻 :: 164 "Bucky Dent" market 0.06, model 0.09🐻 Who will be the CHUBBIEST CHONKER of Fat Bear Week 2026? 🐻 :: 151 "Walker" market 0.06, model 0.07🐻 Who will be the CHUBBIEST CHONKER of Fat Bear Week 2026? 🐻 :: 903 "Gully" market 0.06, model 0.06🐻 Who will be the CHUBBIEST CHONKER of Fat Bear Week 2026? 🐻 :: 610 market 0.06, model 0.50🐻 Who will be the CHUBBIEST CHONKER of Fat Bear Week 2026? 🐻 :: 909 market 0.06, model 0.30🐻 Who will be the CHUBBIEST CHONKER of Fat Bear Week 2026? 🐻 :: 32 "Chunk" market 0.06, model 0.23🐻 Who will be the CHUBBIEST CHONKER of Fat Bear Week 2026? 🐻 :: 132 market 0.06, model 0.50🐻 Who will be the CHUBBIEST CHONKER of Fat Bear Week 2026? 🐻 :: 806 market 0.06, model 0.50🐻 Who will be the CHUBBIEST CHONKER of Fat Bear Week 2026? 🐻 :: 901 market 0.06, model 0.50🐻 Who will be the CHUBBIEST CHONKER of Fat Bear Week 2026? 🐻 :: 620 market 0.06, model 0.50Will i reach 3,900 mana in september? market 0.50, model 0.40
acted on (69 of the 251 priced here) agreed, no trade (161) the diagonal is agreement; the shaded band is the 20% it will not cross

What it thought, market by market

Every market the model priced, with the argument it gave — including the ones it argued itself out of. A multi-choice market is priced one answer at a time and each answer is its own row, named after the question. On this module the reasoning is the strategy, so a decline without it is the one decline nobody can check.

marketpricemodelgapoutcome
Old School Runescape Summit/Roadmap Props :: October 2026 release for Raids 4 confirmed0.700.08-0.62bet 43
Historical base rate is 0/3 prior OSRS raids released in October; official roadmap says The Fractured Archive is targeted for late 2026/winter, making an October confirmation unlikely despite RuneFest’s scheduled OSRS keynote on October 3–4 and the subjective resolution wording.
UK Autumn Budget 2026: will a new first-time buyer ISA replace the Lifetime ISA?0.350.90+0.55bet 49
Base rate: 2/2 recent UK first-time-buyer ISA launches followed through after Budget announcement; the rules exclude consultation alone, but HMT’s consultation explicitly says the new product will replace the Lifetime ISA, the scheduled Budget is 28 October 2026, and the exact resolver is that day’s HMT Budget documents, with no matching market witness found: https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/first-time-buyer-isa-consultation
Will Talarico underperform 2024 Kamala in any county?0.450.99+0.54bet 71
Base rate is effectively 100% (3/3 analogous recent Texas statewide Democratic races had at least one county below Harris’s 2024 share); Travis, Dallas, Harris, or El Paso should remain difficult to exceed, with the exact resolver being the Wikipedia county-results table after the November 3 election (early voting October 19–30).
On what day will the New York Times (NYT) project the winner of the House for the 2026 Midterms? :: November 4th or earl0.080.58+0.50bet 69
Base rate is about 50% (2 of the last 4 comparable cycles were projectable by the next day); with no resolution rules, the Nov. 3, 2026 election is the key scheduled event and current forecasts favor a potentially decisive Democratic House win, but ambiguity over whether NYT's needle counts as a projection pulls this toward 0.5.
Will there be a Scorigami in week 3 of the 2025-26 NFL season?0.500.00-0.50bet 73
Base rate is about 6.9 Scorigamis per 285-game season (2.4% per game; roughly 32% for a 16-game week), but the rules are unambiguous and Week 3’s completed scores are all non-Scorigamis per [nflscorigami.com](https://nflscorigami.com/) and the [official NFL schedule](https://www.nfl.com/schedules/2025/by-week/week-3); the historical log shows 2025 Scorigamis in Weeks 1 and 4 onward, with no remaining calendar event able to change this [record](https://mockslate.com/scorigami/nfl/2025).
Abdul El Sayed vote percent in Oakland County? :: At least 54%0.501.00+0.50bet 18
Base rate: post-election revisions of 8.7 percentage points are approximately 0.1%; rules are slightly ambiguous about the Wikipedia resolver but not enough to matter; Oakland’s reported result was El-Sayed 45.3% versus Stevens 51.8%【https://michiganadvance.com/2026/08/05/michigans-democratic-senate-primary-too-close-to-call/】; no scheduled event before the October 20 close should materially change it; the exact resolver is Oakland County’s official election-results page【https://elections.oaklandcountymi.gov/government/clerk-register-of-deeds/elections-voting】, while the related county-winner market has different rules and is only a weak confirming witness【https://www.coinrithm.com/en/prediction-markets/kalshi/kxprimarycounty-senatemid26】.
Abdul El Sayed vote percent in Oakland County? :: At least 58%0.500.00-0.50bet 18
El-Sayed’s Oakland County share was about 45.2%, making the 58% threshold effectively impossible absent a major reporting correction.
Abdul El Sayed vote percent in Oakland County? :: At least 64%0.500.01-0.49bet 18
Historical base rate is 0 of the last 2 Oakland County U.S. Senate contests above 64% (54.78% in 2020 and 54.85% in 2024); the rule points to the linked Wikipedia county result, with the certified Oakland County canvass as the resolver, and the Oct. 8 debate is the only scheduled pre-close event likely to matter, while current toss-up conditions and El-Sayed's progressive profile make 64% exceptionally unlikely.
UK Autumn Budget 2026: will mayors get a new tax power or a share of a national tax?0.450.93+0.48bet 57
The government has already committed to assigning mayors a share of income-tax receipts beginning in 2028, and the official parliamentary answer plus Treasury’s stated Budget roadmap make Budget-day confirmation highly likely, with residual risk that the documents remain too vague under the resolution rules.
Which three teams are relegated from Finnish Hockey League in 2027? :: Tappara0.500.02-0.48bet 69
Base rate is 3/17 = 17.6% for a randomly selected team; the rules imply the bottom three of Liiga’s 17-team 2026–27 season, but Tappara was a 28.3% preseason title favorite and remains a strong roster despite a 2–2 start, so I estimate 2%, with the regular season and relegation series before the 2027-03-31 close resolved by the official Liiga standings and schedule.
5 Millennium Prize problems solved by the end of 2026?0.500.03-0.48bet 100
Even granting the reported Navier–Stokes proof, reaching five total requires three more broadly credible solutions by December 31, far beyond the historical rate and unsupported by authoritative evidence.
Abdul El Sayed vote percent in Oakland County? :: At least 62%0.500.03-0.47bet 17
Base rate: recent Oakland County Democratic Senate shares were about 54.9% (Slotkin, 2024) and roughly 55% historically; the rules point to certified popular-vote results, with Wikipedia's 2026 Michigan Senate county table as resolver, and the Oct. 8 debate is the only scheduled pre-close event, so 62% requires an unlikely major Democratic overperformance.
Will Trump, any of his cabinet, or any official government account mention aella by name in a tweet by January 1 2028?0.500.03-0.47bet 100
Base rate: 0 confirmed Trump/cabinet/official-government mentions of Aella found in available indexed history; with no resolution rules, ambiguity over what counts as an official “tweet” pulls modestly toward 0.5, but the niche subject and lack of narrative catalyst keep probability low, despite 2026 midterms and routine 2027 White House events, with resolution by the relevant official X/Twitter account archive (proxy evidence: [Aella profile](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aella_%28writer%29), [archived Trump social media](https://www.trumplibrary.gov/research/archived-social-media)).
Which three teams are relegated from Finnish Hockey League in 2027? :: Ilves0.500.03-0.47bet 67
Base rate is 3/17=17.6% structurally, but Ilves finished 2nd, 4th and 5th recently and is currently 6th after three games; under the rules relegation means regular-season places 15–17, with the March 23, 2027 finale before close, resolved by the official Liiga standings, so I estimate 3%.
Will Bitcoin outperform the S&P500 any year over the next ten years?0.500.97+0.47bet 67
Base rate: BTC beat the S&P 500 Total Return Index in roughly 8 of 12 recent complete calendar years (~67%); Yahoo Finance BTC-USD and ^SP500TR are the exact resolvers, the 2026–2036 wording conflicts with “ten years” but either interpretation leaves many opportunities, expected 2028/2032 halvings are favorable volatility catalysts, and no comparable witness market was verified.
Which three teams are relegated from Finnish Hockey League in 2027? :: JYP0.500.04-0.46bet 64
Base rate is 3/17 = 17.6% for a random team, but JYP has 0 relegations in roughly 50 Liiga seasons; the rules relegate the three lowest regular-season finishers, JYP was sixth in 2025–26 and started 2026–27 2–0, the season ends March 23 before the March 31 close, and the official Liiga standings are the resolver, so I estimate 4%.
Which three teams are relegated from Finnish Hockey League in 2027? :: Kärpät0.500.06-0.44bet 61
Kärpät’s simulated bottom-three probability is 5.6%, well below the 17.6% mechanical prior, with clear rules and the official Liiga regular-season standings as resolver.
🐻 Who will be the CHUBBIEST CHONKER of Fat Bear Week 2026? 🐻 :: 6100.060.50+0.44answer cap
🐻 Who will be the CHUBBIEST CHONKER of Fat Bear Week 2026? 🐻 :: 1320.060.50+0.44bet 79
Base rate is 1/16 (6.25%) for any specified 2026 entrant, but no bear is named; the official NPS/Explore.org tournament crowns a champion Sept. 29 before the Oct. 6 close, so the malformed yes/no wording and unresolved candidate identity warrant a 0.5 estimate.
🐻 Who will be the CHUBBIEST CHONKER of Fat Bear Week 2026? 🐻 :: 8060.060.50+0.44bet 79
Base rate is 12/12 annual contests producing a champion, but the prompt names no specific bear or YES proposition; the rules are therefore materially ambiguous, so I use 0.5, with the official resolver being FatBearWeek.org/NPS and the championship scheduled for September 29, before the October 6 close.
🐻 Who will be the CHUBBIEST CHONKER of Fat Bear Week 2026? 🐻 :: 9010.060.50+0.44bet 79
Base rate is one champion per annual event (12 editions since 2014); rules name no candidate or YES condition, the champion is scheduled for September 29, 2026, and the exact resolver is the official NPS/Fat Bear Week announcement, so the malformed binary market warrants 0.50 despite incumbent Chunk’s narrative and no matching witness market.
🐻 Who will be the CHUBBIEST CHONKER of Fat Bear Week 2026? 🐻 :: 6200.060.50+0.44bet 79
Base rate: all 12 prior contests produced an official champion, but this is not a well-defined YES/NO proposition because no bear is named; the 16-bear tournament runs Sept. 22–29, with resolution by Katmai NPS/Explore.org’s official champion announcement, so ambiguity dominates.
Best Picture nominees? (2027 Oscars) :: Behemoth0.500.06-0.44bet 100
The raw base rate is 10 of 317 eligible films (3.2%), and Behemoth! is a major Searchlight release eligible under the rules, but it is currently just outside most top-10 forecasts; its October 2 NYFF premiere is the key pre-close event, while the exact resolver is the Academy’s January 21 announcement, with Kalshi’s roughly 2% price as a rule-matched but noisy proxy ([Academy rules](https://press.oscars.org/news/awards-rules-and-campaign-promotional-regulations-approved-99th-oscarsr), [NYFF listing](https://www.filmlinc.org/nyff2026/films/behemoth/), [market odds](https://www.covers.com/entertainment/oscars-prediction-markets-best-picture)).
Best Picture nominees? (2027 Oscars) :: You Can See Everything0.500.08-0.42bet 100
Its exceptional early buzz creates a real long-shot path, but the documentary’s 0-for-98 Best Picture base rate, weak expert consensus, and uncertain campaign/eligibility execution make nomination unlikely.
Best Picture nominees? (2027 Oscars) :: Michael0.500.08-0.42bet 100
Michael is outside the predicted top ten across current Best Picture forecasts, and its weak reviews and controversy make a late nomination unlikely despite strong box office.
Which three teams are relegated from Finnish Hockey League in 2027? :: Ässät0.500.08-0.42answer cap
Which three teams are relegated from Finnish Hockey League in 2027? :: Lukko0.500.09-0.41answer cap
Which three teams are relegated from Finnish Hockey League in 2027? :: Sport0.500.09-0.41answer cap
Who will win the 2026 League of Legends World Championship? :: T10.060.45+0.39bet 71
Base rate is 1/19 = 5.3% per team, while T1’s historical Worlds rate is 6/15 = 40%; the rules are unambiguous, T1 is qualified as LCK’s third seed, Worlds runs Oct 15–Nov 14 with the official Riot Worlds standings page as resolver, and the matching Polymarket witness is about 47%, so I discount hype modestly to 45%.
Japan vs India T20 cricket match0.110.50+0.39bet 14
The rules specify a percentage outcome but no YES threshold, so despite Japan’s low matchup win probability, the resolution ambiguity warrants a near-0.5 estimate.
Which ticket will win the 2026 FIDE presidential election? :: Timur Turlov / Viswanathan Anand0.250.64+0.39bet 9
Base rate is 2/2 recent FIDE elections favoring the incumbent/continuity ticket; three valid tickets are listed, Turlov–Anand has institutional continuity and Anand’s support, the scheduled resolver is the FIDE General Assembly on 26 September, and the official result will be FIDE’s announcement, with little reason to price cancellation/NOTA materially above 1% ([FIDE](https://www.fide.com/three-presidential-tickets-submitted-to-fide-office-ahead-of-2026-elections), [FIDE elections](https://www.fide.com/elections/)).
Which three teams are relegated from Finnish Hockey League in 2027? :: KalPa0.500.11-0.39answer cap
Best Picture nominees? (2027 Oscars) :: Possible Love0.500.12-0.38bet 100
Possible Love is an unusually strong international contender with major festival momentum and Netflix backing, but the crowded ten-film field, limited English-language crossover, and rule/timing ambiguity keep its nomination probability near 12%.
Will @manifoldpolitics create 5 or more markets in October 20260.500.12-0.38bet 49
Despite a 67% historical active-month base rate, the account has been dormant for 22 months, making October reactivation with five or more creations unlikely even with the pre-midterm incentive.
which teams will qual for nationals from GA this year :: gsmst hs0.500.12-0.38bet 12
Base rate is roughly 4 national qualifications in about 15 recent seasons (~27%), but GSMST has recently been outside Georgia’s top tier; the 2027 rules are ambiguous because Georgia is splitting Division C into tiers, with registration by Oct. 31, regionals Feb. 6–27, state tournaments in Mar.–Apr., and the official resolver being GASO’s Division C state results, so I discount the historical peak and assign 12%.
Which three teams are relegated from Finnish Hockey League in 2027? :: Pelicans0.500.12-0.38answer cap
US Average Gas Price Is $4.4500 or more on September 24 2026?0.480.86+0.38bet 100
AAA’s strong recent upward trend leaves a substantial cushion above $4.4500, so barring a sharp crude or refinery reversal the September 24 average is likely to remain at or above the threshold.
Old School Runescape Summit/Roadmap Props :: Announced continuation to Sea Slug questline planned for 2020.200.58+0.38bet 17
Base rate: roughly 1–2 named OSRS questline continuations are announced per year, while Sea Slug has had none for about 17 years; the rules make the exact meaning of “planned” somewhat ambiguous, but the game-jam proposal and sea-focused roadmap raise the estimate above base rate; the key scheduled event is RuneFest OSRS Summit on October 3–4, with resolution by Jagex’s official RuneFest/OSRS roadmap announcement.
Abdul El Sayed vote percent in Oakland County? :: At least 60%0.500.13-0.37answer cap
Best Picture nominees? (2027 Oscars) :: Dune: Part Three0.610.24-0.37answer cap
Best Picture nominees? (2027 Oscars) :: The Invite0.500.14-0.36answer cap
Will Mistral AI and/or its investors sue Juan Branco for Defamation in 20260.500.14-0.36bet 46
A qualifying filing is legally straightforward but historically uncommon, and although Branco’s attacks and Cédric O’s litigation history provide a modest boost, there is no reported filing or scheduled trigger with only about three months remaining.
Which three teams are relegated from Finnish Hockey League in 2027? :: HIFK0.500.14-0.36answer cap
Which three teams are relegated from Finnish Hockey League in 2027? :: HPK0.500.14-0.36answer cap
Which three teams are relegated from Finnish Hockey League in 2027? :: KooKoo0.500.14-0.36answer cap
who will win HSBT? :: Outstanding Orangutangs0.140.50+0.36answer cap
who will win HSBT? :: MSJ A0.140.50+0.36bet 57
Base rate is unknowable without the field size, and with no resolution rules, identifiable event, calendar, or exact resolver, ambiguity dominates and pulls the estimate to 0.5.
who will win HSBT? :: MSJ B0.140.50+0.36bet 57
Base rate: unknown because the field size and historical results are unavailable; rules and resolver are unspecified, “HSBT”/“MSJ B” are ambiguous, and no scheduled event or matching witness can be verified, so the estimate is pulled to 0.50.
who will win HSBT? :: NOHO A0.140.50+0.36bet 57
HSBT and NOHO A are undefined under the supplied rules, so the outcome and resolver cannot be identified and the estimate defaults to 50%.
who will win HSBT? :: BRIDGELAND0.140.50+0.36bet 57
No defensible entrant-specific base rate or exact resolver exists: the rules are blank, HSBT’s official page provides no Bridgeland linkage, and Bridgeland’s next listed game is after close, so I use a 50% ambiguity prior.

Where candidates died · 163 markets judged, 386 rows

The book · v89-twin

utcversionmarketbetresultwhy
09-22 16:49v89-twinOn what day will the New York Times (NYT) project the winner of the House for the 2026 Midterms? :: November 7YES 19open +7model 0.27; edge +0.16; luna-medium price-blind says 0.27 vs answer 0.11 (edge +0.16 >= 0.1): Base rate is 1/3 across the last three midterms (House control clear by Nov. 7 in 2018, Nov. 16 in 2022, and Nov. 13 in 2024); the scheduled event is the Nov. 3, 2026 general election ([FEC](https://www.fec.gov/introduction-campaign-finance/election-results-and-voting-information/)), and the resolver would be NYT’s official 2026 election-results projection, but absent resolution rules create ambiguity over what counts as a projection, so I modestly pull toward 0.5 while discounting the historical proxy.
09-22 16:49v89-twinOn what day will the New York Times (NYT) project the winner of the House for the 2026 Midterms? :: November 6YES 20open -4model 0.25; edge +0.14; luna-medium price-blind says 0.25 vs answer 0.11 (edge +0.14 >= 0.1): Base rate: roughly 1 of 4 recent elections produced a House-control projection by the third day after Election Day; rules are unspecified, creating ambiguity over what counts as an NYT projection; November 3, 2026 is Election Day and November 6 has no scheduled decisive event; the resolver would be NYT’s election-results page, with no matching witness market verified.
09-22 16:49v89-twinOn what day will the New York Times (NYT) project the winner of the House for the 2026 Midterms? :: November 4YES 66open +20model 0.58; edge +0.50; luna-medium price-blind says 0.58 vs answer 0.08 (edge +0.50 >= 0.1): Base rate is about 50% (2 of the last 4 comparable cycles were projectable by the next day); with no resolution rules, the Nov. 3, 2026 election is the key scheduled event and current forecasts favor a potentially decisive Democratic House win, but ambiguity over whether NYT's needle counts as a projection pulls this toward 0.5.
09-22 16:49v89-twinOn what day will the New York Times (NYT) project the winner of the House for the 2026 Midterms? :: November 1YES 42open +18model 0.42; edge +0.31; luna-medium price-blind says 0.42 vs answer 0.11 (edge +0.31 >= 0.1): Base rate is 1/4 recent midterms (25%) with House control projected on or after Nov. 13; the 2026 election is Nov. 3, current forecasts suggest a competitive Democratic-favored House, and the absent resolution rules create ambiguity over whether NYT means its live results page or any NYT projection, so I adjust upward but toward 0.5; resolver would be NYT’s official 2026 House results/projection page, with Cook and other forecasts only proxies.
09-22 16:46v89-twinOld School Runescape Summit/Roadmap Props :: October 2026 release for Raids 4 confirmedNO 43open +14model 0.08; edge -0.62; luna-medium price-blind says 0.08 vs answer 0.70 (edge -0.62 >= 0.3): Historical base rate is 0/3 prior OSRS raids released in October; official roadmap says The Fractured Archive is targeted for late 2026/winter, making an October confirmation unlikely despite RuneFest’s scheduled OSRS keynote on October 3–4 and the subjective resolution wording.
09-22 16:46v89-twinOld School Runescape Summit/Roadmap Props :: Announced continuation to Sea Slug questline planned for 2027YES 16open -0model 0.58; edge +0.38; luna-medium price-blind says 0.58 vs answer 0.20 (edge +0.38 >= 0.3): Base rate: roughly 1–2 named OSRS questline continuations are announced per year, while Sea Slug has had none for about 17 years; the rules make the exact meaning of “planned” somewhat ambiguous, but the game-jam proposal and sea-focused roadmap raise the estimate above base rate; the key scheduled event is RuneFest OSRS Summit on October 3–4, with resolution by Jagex’s official RuneFest/OSRS roadmap announcement.
09-22 15:05v89-twinWill the term Super Intelligents replace Artificial intelligence before EOYNO 0unfilledmodel 0.12; edge -0.31; luna-medium price-blind says 0.12 vs market 0.43 (edge -0.31 >= 0.2): The literal term has negligible current usage and no exact resolver is specified, so despite ambiguity lifting the estimate above the ~0.5% terminology-replacement base rate, YES remains unlikely.
09-22 14:45v89-twinUK Autumn Budget 2026: will a £2 bus fare cap be funded beyond the end of 2027?YES 20open +7model 0.58; edge +0.33; luna-medium price-blind says 0.58 vs market 0.25 (edge +0.33 >= 0.2): A 50% historical renewal base rate is nudged upward by the government's current cost-of-living and £2-cap commitment, but fiscal pressure and the explicit one-year funding horizon keep YES below high confidence.
09-22 14:43v89-twinUK Autumn Budget 2026: will the Energy Profits Levy be raised or extended?YES 17open +9model 0.58; edge +0.23; luna-medium price-blind says 0.58 vs market 0.35 (edge +0.23 >= 0.2): Base rate is about 75% (3 of the last 4 UK Budgets introduced, raised, extended, or replaced an oil-and-gas windfall tax); rules make the key ambiguity whether HMT confirms the already-announced Oil and Gas Revenue Levy, sentiment is secondary, the scheduled event is the 28 October 2026 Budget, and the resolver is HMT’s Budget-day documents and speech, with no matching witness market found ([HMT levy policy](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/oil-and-gas-taxation-oil-and-gas-revenue-levy), [Budget date](https://www.gov.uk/government/news/budget-to-move-power-and-money-out-of-westminster-and-into-every-postcode-around-britain)).
09-22 14:42v89-twinUK Autumn Budget 2026: will a new first-time buyer ISA replace the Lifetime ISA?YES 49open +16model 0.90; edge +0.55; luna-medium price-blind says 0.90 vs market 0.35 (edge +0.55 >= 0.2): Base rate: 2/2 recent UK first-time-buyer ISA launches followed through after Budget announcement; the rules exclude consultation alone, but HMT’s consultation explicitly says the new product will replace the Lifetime ISA, the scheduled Budget is 28 October 2026, and the exact resolver is that day’s HMT Budget documents, with no matching market witness found: https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/first-time-buyer-isa-consultation
09-22 14:34v89-twinUK Autumn Budget 2026: will the 'mansion tax' threshold be set below £2 million?YES 15open -0model 0.55; edge +0.20; luna-medium price-blind says 0.55 vs market 0.35 (edge +0.20 >= 0.2): Base rate is 0 of 1 comparable prior Budget announcements lowering this newly introduced threshold; the 18 September report of a live £1.5m discussion raises it, but political and implementation risks keep it near even odds, with the decisive resolver being HM Treasury’s Budget speech/documents on 28 October 2026 and consultations alone counting NO.
09-22 14:33v89-twinUK Autumn Budget 2026: will it freeze fuel duty or cancel a scheduled rise?YES 41open -0model 0.88; edge +0.24; luna-medium price-blind says 0.88 vs market 0.64 (edge +0.24 >= 0.2): The base rate is unusually favorable and HM Treasury has already announced no fuel-duty rise in 2026, making Budget-document confirmation of a negative 2027-28 impact likely despite the non-equivalent Polymarket witness.
09-22 13:52v89-twinWho will win the 2026 League of Legends World Championship? :: Hanwha Life EsportsYES 25open +6model 0.18; edge +0.12; luna-medium price-blind says 0.18 vs answer 0.06 (edge +0.12 >= 0.1): Base rate is 1/19 = 5.3% for an equal-field team; rules clearly mean the tournament winner, HLE won MSI but lost the LCK final 1-3 to Gen.G, the only material scheduled event is Worlds (Oct 15–Nov 14), Riot’s LoL Esports standings page is the resolver, and the matching outright Polymarket witness was 18.5% (thin liquidity), so I estimate 18%.
09-22 13:52v89-twinWho will win the 2026 League of Legends World Championship? :: Gen. GYES 63open +18model 0.40; edge +0.34; luna-medium price-blind says 0.40 vs answer 0.06 (edge +0.34 >= 0.1): Base rate is 5.3% for a uniform 19-team field and LCK teams won 9 of the last 13 Worlds (69%); rules are clear, Gen.G is qualified as LCK champion, hype is secondary to its strong form, Worlds runs Oct. 15–Nov. 14 with the Nov. 14 final before the Nov. 30 close, Riot’s LoL Esports site is the resolver, and the matching Polymarket market prices Gen.G near 41% (low-volume proxy), so I shade slightly below that to 40%.
09-22 13:52v89-twinWho will win the 2026 League of Legends World Championship? :: G2 EsportsYES 32open +6model 0.22; edge +0.16; luna-medium price-blind says 0.22 vs answer 0.06 (edge +0.16 >= 0.1): Base rate: LEC teams have won 1 of 15 completed Worlds (6.7%) and G2 has won 0 of 15; G2 is nevertheless Riot’s current #4 team, has qualified as LEC’s top seed, and a comparable winner market prices it at 23%, so I estimate 22% ahead of the Oct 15–Nov 14 tournament, resolved by Riot’s official LoL Esports winner announcement ([Riot schedule](https://lolesports.com/en-US/news/msi-and-worlds-updates), [Riot rankings](https://lolesports.com/es-MX/gpr/2026/current), [comparable market](https://www.paridesk.com/markets/worlds-2026-winner)).
09-22 13:52v89-twinWho will win the 2026 League of Legends World Championship? :: T1YES 69open +38model 0.45; edge +0.39; luna-medium price-blind says 0.45 vs answer 0.06 (edge +0.39 >= 0.1): Base rate is 1/19 = 5.3% per team, while T1’s historical Worlds rate is 6/15 = 40%; the rules are unambiguous, T1 is qualified as LCK’s third seed, Worlds runs Oct 15–Nov 14 with the official Riot Worlds standings page as resolver, and the matching Polymarket witness is about 47%, so I discount hype modestly to 45%.
09-21 09:54v89-twinJapan vs India T20 cricket matchYES 14settled +27model 0.50; edge +0.39; luna-medium price-blind says 0.50 vs market 0.11 (edge +0.39 >= 0.2): The rules specify a percentage outcome but no YES threshold, so despite Japan’s low matchup win probability, the resolution ambiguity warrants a near-0.5 estimate.
09-21 09:41v89-twinWill either Trump or Xi explicitly mention Taiwan during the upcoming Trump-Xi summit? :: Yes, Taiwan will be YES 0unfilledmodel 0.74; edge +0.24; luna-medium price-blind says 0.74 vs answer 0.50 (edge +0.24 >= 0.1): Base rate is 1/2 (50%) across the two most recent Trump-Xi summits, but the Sept. 24 meeting is officially confirmed [by China’s MFA](https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/eng/xw/zyxw/202609/t20260921_12027514.html), Taiwan is a central expected agenda item [per Reuters](https://uk.marketscreener.com/news/xi-rolls-into-trump-summit-with-china-s-trade-engine-roaring-ce785adbd98af123), and the exact resolver—White House/FMPRC proceedings or a substantive press response—makes an explicit mention more likely than the prior 50%, with dodged questions excluded.
09-21 09:41v89-twinWill either Trump or Xi explicitly mention Taiwan during the upcoming Trump-Xi summit? :: No, Taiwan will not NO 46open +9model 0.18; edge -0.32; luna-medium price-blind says 0.18 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.32 >= 0.1): Base rate: Taiwan was explicitly mentioned in 1 of the 2 most recent Trump-Xi summits (50%); the Sept. 24 summit is officially scheduled during Xi’s Sept. 23–25 state visit, and Xi’s May summit readout made Taiwan central, so the Chinese MFA communiqué makes a no-mention outcome unlikely ([MFA schedule](https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/eng/xw/zyxw/202609/t20260921_12027514.html), [May readout](https://www.gov.cn/news/202605/14/content_WS6a055086c6d00ca5f9a0af1a.html)).
09-21 08:50v89-twinUS Average Gas Price Is $4.3500 or more on September 28 2026?YES 100open +68model 0.78; edge +0.23; luna-medium price-blind says 0.78 vs market 0.55 (edge +0.23 >= 0.2): AAA’s $4.4786 current average is 12.86¢ above the threshold, and recent gasoline/RBOB momentum outweighs the usual late-September seasonal decline, though the September 23 EIA report adds material downside volatility.
09-21 08:49v89-twinUS Average Gas Price Is $4.4500 or more on September 24 2026?YES 100open +61model 0.86; edge +0.38; luna-medium price-blind says 0.86 vs market 0.48 (edge +0.38 >= 0.2): AAA’s strong recent upward trend leaves a substantial cushion above $4.4500, so barring a sharp crude or refinery reversal the September 24 average is likely to remain at or above the threshold.
09-21 08:36v89-twinWhich three teams are relegated from Finnish Hockey League in 2027? :: JYPNO 0unfilledmodel 0.04; edge -0.46; luna-medium price-blind says 0.04 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.46 >= 0.3): Base rate is 3/17 = 17.6% for a random team, but JYP has 0 relegations in roughly 50 Liiga seasons; the rules relegate the three lowest regular-season finishers, JYP was sixth in 2025–26 and started 2026–27 2–0, the season ends March 23 before the March 31 close, and the official Liiga standings are the resolver, so I estimate 4%.
09-21 08:36v89-twinWhich three teams are relegated from Finnish Hockey League in 2027? :: KärpätNO 51open +7model 0.06; edge -0.44; luna-medium price-blind says 0.06 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.44 >= 0.3): Kärpät’s simulated bottom-three probability is 5.6%, well below the 17.6% mechanical prior, with clear rules and the official Liiga regular-season standings as resolver.
09-21 08:36v89-twinWhich three teams are relegated from Finnish Hockey League in 2027? :: TapparaNO 0unfilledmodel 0.02; edge -0.48; luna-medium price-blind says 0.02 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.48 >= 0.3): Base rate is 3/17 = 17.6% for a randomly selected team; the rules imply the bottom three of Liiga’s 17-team 2026–27 season, but Tappara was a 28.3% preseason title favorite and remains a strong roster despite a 2–2 start, so I estimate 2%, with the regular season and relegation series before the 2027-03-31 close resolved by the official Liiga standings and schedule.
09-21 08:36v89-twinWhich three teams are relegated from Finnish Hockey League in 2027? :: IlvesNO 0unfilledmodel 0.03; edge -0.47; luna-medium price-blind says 0.03 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.47 >= 0.3): Base rate is 3/17=17.6% structurally, but Ilves finished 2nd, 4th and 5th recently and is currently 6th after three games; under the rules relegation means regular-season places 15–17, with the March 23, 2027 finale before close, resolved by the official Liiga standings, so I estimate 3%.
09-21 07:06v89-twinWill the Magic the Gathering movie make over 350 million at the global box office?NO 39open +11model 0.18; edge -0.32; luna-medium price-blind says 0.18 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.32 >= 0.2): Base rate is roughly 20% for a new fantasy/game-IP theatrical film to exceed $350M worldwide; Hasbro/Legendary have writers and Matt Johnson attached but no release date, so I estimate ~55% wide-release-by-2030 × ~33% conditional success, with NYCC 2026 a possible but non-mechanical update; the resolver is the film’s [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magic%3A_The_Gathering) worldwide-gross figure, and no matching witness market is available.
09-21 04:52v89-twinwhich teams will qual for nationals from GA this year :: gsmst hsNO 2open +1model 0.12; edge -0.38; luna-medium price-blind says 0.12 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.38 >= 0.3): Base rate is roughly 4 national qualifications in about 15 recent seasons (~27%), but GSMST has recently been outside Georgia’s top tier; the 2027 rules are ambiguous because Georgia is splitting Division C into tiers, with registration by Oct. 31, regionals Feb. 6–27, state tournaments in Mar.–Apr., and the official resolver being GASO’s Division C state results, so I discount the historical peak and assign 12%.
09-21 02:25v89-twinWill Trump, any of his cabinet, or any official government account mention aella by name in a tweet by JanuaryNO 100open +17model 0.03; edge -0.47; luna-medium price-blind says 0.03 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.47 >= 0.2): Base rate: 0 confirmed Trump/cabinet/official-government mentions of Aella found in available indexed history; with no resolution rules, ambiguity over what counts as an official “tweet” pulls modestly toward 0.5, but the niche subject and lack of narrative catalyst keep probability low, despite 2026 midterms and routine 2027 White House events, with resolution by the relevant official X/Twitter account archive (proxy evidence: [Aella profile](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aella_%28writer%29), [archived Trump social media](https://www.trumplibrary.gov/research/archived-social-media)).
09-21 02:17v89-twinWill the United States become a dictatorship by 2400?YES 17open +18model 0.53; edge +0.33; luna-medium price-blind says 0.53 vs market 0.20 (edge +0.33 >= 0.2): Historical base rate is about 1.2% annual democratic-breakdown risk across presidential democracies, but the United States’ longevity and wealth imply a lower hazard; the strict three-year closed-autocracy rule and ambiguous 2400 dissolution clause pull toward 0.5, despite current backsliding, with the November 3, 2026 federal election as the nearest scheduled test; resolution would rely chiefly on V-Dem’s Regimes of the World and CSP Polity data, while Metaculus/Manifold’s roughly 28–31% by 2100 forecasts use materially looser rules and are only weak witnesses.
09-20 23:49v89-twinWill @manifoldpolitics create 5 or more markets in October 2026NO 49open +18model 0.12; edge -0.38; luna-medium price-blind says 0.12 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.38 >= 0.2): Despite a 67% historical active-month base rate, the account has been dormant for 22 months, making October reactivation with five or more creations unlikely even with the pre-midterm incentive.
09-20 23:13v89-twinWill Democrat Chris Pappas win New Hampshire Senate election by 10% or more?NO 9open +0model 0.17; edge -0.33; luna-medium price-blind says 0.17 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.33 >= 0.2): Base rate: recent New Hampshire Senate elections cleared a 10-point margin in 2 of 6 contests (33%), but only 1 of the last 5 Democratic wins; rules imply a standard 10-point vote-margin threshold, current polls average Pappas +3.3 points with the latest at +8, and Cook rates the race Toss-Up, so sentiment does not support a large-margin forecast; the key scheduled event is the November 3 election, with the New Hampshire Secretary of State’s certified general-election results as the exact resolver (polling and Cook are proxies).
09-20 23:12v89-twinWho will be the next (non-interim) leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia? :: Trevor HalfordNO 100open +0model 0.02; edge -0.12; luna-medium price-blind says 0.02 vs answer 0.14 (edge -0.12 >= 0.1): Base rate is 2 permanent-leader changes in roughly 7 years (~0.29/year); despite recent turmoil, Halford was not a 2026 leadership contestant and was removed from caucus, while the Sept. 26 by-election and Oct. 17 local elections are the main scheduled catalysts, so official Conservative Party announcements (with credible-media consensus) imply a very low chance he becomes the next permanent leader.
09-20 23:12v89-twinWho will be the next (non-interim) leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia? :: Caroline ElliottYES 31open +7model 0.34; edge +0.20; luna-medium price-blind says 0.34 vs answer 0.14 (edge +0.20 >= 0.1): Caroline Elliott narrowly lost the 2026 leadership race and is the strongest identifiable successor, but the party’s recent turnover rate is not enough to make a future Elliott victory more likely than not.
09-20 23:12v89-twinWho will be the next (non-interim) leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia? :: James MooreNO 100open +4model 0.02; edge -0.12; luna-medium price-blind says 0.02 vs answer 0.14 (edge -0.12 >= 0.1): Base rate: 2 permanent-leader changes in roughly 7 years (~0.29/year), implying about a 30% chance of any successor by the 2028 close; James Moore declined the 2026 contest and endorsed another candidate, so I estimate roughly 5–7% conditional on a vacancy, with the Sept. 26 Abbotsford–Mission by-election as the main scheduled catalyst, while the exact resolver is the party’s official announcement (confirmed by [party results](https://conservativebc.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/2026-05-30-Conservative-Party-of-BC-Leadership-Results.pdf) and [official team page](https://www.conservativebc.ca/our-team/)), and no matching witness market was found.
09-20 22:38v89-twinWill Talarico underperform 2024 Kamala in any county?YES 71open -5model 0.99; edge +0.54; luna-medium price-blind says 0.99 vs market 0.45 (edge +0.54 >= 0.2): Base rate is effectively 100% (3/3 analogous recent Texas statewide Democratic races had at least one county below Harris’s 2024 share); Travis, Dallas, Harris, or El Paso should remain difficult to exceed, with the exact resolver being the Wikipedia county-results table after the November 3 election (early voting October 19–30).
09-20 22:29v89-twinWill the 2027 presidential French elections be decided at the first round?NO 23open +3model 0.00; edge -0.21; luna-medium price-blind says 0.00 vs market 0.21 (edge -0.21 >= 0.2): Historical base rate is 0/11 French presidential elections since 1965; the rules clearly require over 50% in round one, and the scheduled April 18, 2027 vote will be settled by the French Interior Ministry or Constitutional Council, while related runoff-qualification markets do not match this criterion.
09-20 22:08v89-twinWill OpenAI publicly claim a solution to a SECOND Millennium Prize Problem by November 30, 2026?NO 49open -2model 0.10; edge -0.25; luna-medium price-blind says 0.10 vs market 0.35 (edge -0.25 >= 0.2): Base rate is 0 completed solutions among these five problems over roughly 26 years; rules are clear but 'complete solution' has modest ambiguity, OpenAI's recent Navier–Stokes claim and active math effort raise the rate above baseline, no decisive scheduled event before November 30 is identified, the resolver is an official OpenAI channel ([research page](https://openai.com/news/research/), corroborated if needed by named outlets), and no matching witness-market prices are available.
09-20 21:30v89-twinWill $500 Obamacare rebate checks start going out by Oct. 31 2026? (ACA)YES 21open -3model 0.68; edge +0.23; luna-medium price-blind says 0.68 vs market 0.45 (edge +0.23 >= 0.2): The administration has publicly committed to October payments and has a strong pre-midterm incentive, but the absence of a published disbursement mechanism and uncertainty over legal authority keep the probability below 75%.
09-20 21:24v89-twinWhen will SSI announce a model? :: Q4 2027YES 29open -7model 0.22; edge +0.16; luna-medium price-blind says 0.22 vs answer 0.06 (edge +0.16 >= 0.1): SSI’s compute expansion makes a 2027 model announcement plausible, but its zero model announcements across three official updates, secretive mission, and the failed 2026 rumor keep the specific Q4 2027 probability low.
09-20 21:24v89-twinWhen will SSI announce a model? :: LaterYES 29open -14model 0.39; edge +0.19; luna-medium price-blind says 0.39 vs answer 0.20 (edge +0.19 >= 0.1): Base rate is 0 SSI model announcements in roughly 2.25 years; SSI’s official updates page still lists no model announcement [official updates](https://ssi.inc/updates), while the NVIDIA compute ramp over the next year is the main calendar catalyst, and a related market’s 13% 2028+ proxy is rule-mismatched and stale, so ambiguity around “Later” warrants a pull toward 0.5.
09-20 21:24v89-twinWhen will SSI announce a model? :: Q2 2027YES 30open -8model 0.23; edge +0.17; luna-medium price-blind says 0.23 vs answer 0.06 (edge +0.17 >= 0.1): Base rate is roughly 60% for a well-funded frontier AI lab to announce its first model within 7–9 months, but SSI’s official updates page still lists no model announcement, the August 2026 rumor missed, no SSI event is scheduled before Q2 2027, and the closest witness (Mantic’s stricter public-release forecast) points earlier, so I discount Q2; resolver is SSI’s updates page.
09-20 21:24v89-twinWhen will SSI announce a model? :: Q4 2026YES 0unfilledmodel 0.34; edge +0.28; luna-medium price-blind says 0.34 vs answer 0.06 (edge +0.28 >= 0.1): Base rate: use 25% as a naive quarterly prior; SSI missed the August rumor, but its July partnership says research is ready to scale, NVIDIA Vera Rubin systems are expected in Q4, and the official resolver is SSI’s updates page, which currently has no model announcement; related release markets are not rule-matched, while “model” is underspecified, so I modestly raise the estimate to 34%.[SSI updates](https://ssi.inc/updates) [NVIDIA partnership](https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/07/27/3333561/0/en/ilya-sutskevers-safe-superintelligence-inc-and-nvidia-announce-long-term-strategic-partnership.html) [Rubin availability](https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-vera-rubin-delivers-world-class-supercomputers-for-science)
09-20 21:14v89-twinWill there be a Scorigami in week 3 of the 2025-26 NFL season?NO 0open +0model 0.00; edge -0.50; luna-medium price-blind says 0.00 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.50 >= 0.2): Base rate is about 6.9 Scorigamis per 285-game season (2.4% per game; roughly 32% for a 16-game week), but the rules are unambiguous and Week 3’s completed scores are all non-Scorigamis per [nflscorigami.com](https://nflscorigami.com/) and the [official NFL schedule](https://www.nfl.com/schedules/2025/by-week/week-3); the historical log shows 2025 Scorigamis in Weeks 1 and 4 onward, with no remaining calendar event able to change this [record](https://mockslate.com/scorigami/nfl/2025).
09-20 19:52v89-twin5 Millennium Prize problems solved by the end of 2026?NO 100open +63model 0.03; edge -0.47; luna-medium price-blind says 0.03 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.48 >= 0.2): Even granting the reported Navier–Stokes proof, reaching five total requires three more broadly credible solutions by December 31, far beyond the historical rate and unsupported by authoritative evidence.
09-20 19:37v89-twinWill the MAGA ‘Moderates’ all lose reelection?NO 100open +5model 0.11; edge -0.24; luna-medium price-blind says 0.11 vs market 0.35 (edge -0.24 >= 0.2): All three races are genuinely competitive, but the historical incumbent-loss base rate and Fitzpatrick’s residual advantage make the joint all-loss outcome only about 11% likely.
09-20 19:18v89-twinWill Mistral AI and/or its investors sue Juan Branco for Defamation in 2026NO 0open +0model 0.14; edge -0.36; luna-medium price-blind says 0.14 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.36 >= 0.2): A qualifying filing is legally straightforward but historically uncommon, and although Branco’s attacks and Cédric O’s litigation history provide a modest boost, there is no reported filing or scheduled trigger with only about three months remaining.
09-20 18:12v89-twinDuskbloods release date? :: SeptemberNO 82open +7model 0.06; edge -0.14; luna-medium price-blind says 0.06 vs answer 0.20 (edge -0.14 >= 0.1): Base rate: I estimate ~6% for a major unreleased game with only a year-level window to launch in the final 11 days of September; the rules are clear, sentiment/speculation is weak evidence, Tokyo Game Show runs through September 21, and the exact resolver is Nintendo’s official Duskbloods product page/FromSoftware site—both still say only 2026, with no matching witness market found.
09-19 16:47v89-twinWhich charities will be recommended by GiveWell at the end of 2027? :: Helen Keller InternationalYES 9open +2model 0.82; edge +0.32; luna-medium price-blind says 0.82 vs answer 0.50 (edge +0.32 >= 0.3): Base rate is 9/9 annual GiveWell year-end lists since 2017 (100%), and HKI has a grant extending into 2027, but the undefined rules and GiveWell’s likely year-end 2027 review create uncertainty; the resolver is GiveWell’s official Top Charities page.

48 trades, 1,837 staked, realised +27, open +920 if held / +415 if sold, 6 unfilled.

In the traces on hand the model priced 251 answers across 163 markets and the module acted on 69 of them (27%). The journal holds 48 trades for 1,837 mana. 1 of them settled for +27. An estimate the model declines to give is treated as no opinion and never as a cheap one.
Traces are diagnostic and rotate; the trading journal is the book above. Built 2026-09-22 18:16Z.