mc‑indep

module 1.0 · v89-twin ← trader

A multiple-choice market lists its answers at about 0.50 each, and answers that resolve independently come in nearer 38%. So this module buys NO across the answers of a brand-new market, up to 150 mana per market. The bet is per answer, which is exactly where the risk hides: a market's answers are often settled by one event on one day, and then a dozen small bets are one big bet wearing a dozen costumes.

Markets it bet, and how many answers each took

What results will happen during Week 4 of the 2026 College Football Season?28 answers · 0 mana · v89-twin
Coastal Carolina defeats0.50Temple defeats Army0.50Rutgers defeats Howard0.50UAB defeats Navy0.50Indiana defeats Northwes0.50Clemson defeats Californ0.50Tennessee defeats Texas0.50Ohio State defeats Illin0.50Texas Tech defeats Sam H0.50Louisiana defeats Wake F0.50Colorado defeats Baylor0.50Pittsburgh defeats Buckn0.50Virginia Tech defeats Bo0.50Toledo defeats San Diego0.50UTSA defeats Colorado St0.50UNLV defeats Akron0.50Ball State defeats Kent 0.50Kentucky defeats South A0.50Eastern Michigan defeats0.50UCLA defeats Maryland0.50Notre Dame defeats Purdu0.50Georgia State defeats No0.50Florida State defeats Ce0.50Hawaii defeats Wyoming0.50Georgia defeats Oklahoma0.50Ole Miss defeats Florida0.50
which teams will qual for nationals from GA this year7 answers · 23 mana · v89-twin
northview hs0.50brookwood hs0.50chatahoochee hs0.50fsa hs0.50walton hs0.50gsmst hs0.50ia hs0.50
Rank the options!4 answers · 13 mana · v89-twin
Answer 10.50Answer 20.50Answer 30.50Answer 40.50
OpenAI Dev Day 2026 props4 answers · 9 mana · v89-twin
OpenAI perpetuals increa0.50OpenAI publicly reveals 0.50OpenAI releases a Grok B0.50OpenAI releases or publi0.50
Old School Runescape Summit/Roadmap Props2 answers · 33 mana · v89-twin
New OSRS Leagues planned0.50Varlamore Achievement Di0.50

A market marked in warning colour took six or more answers. Read those as a single position: the per-market cap limits the stake, not the number of ways one event can decide it. Each chip is one answer at the price it opened; the card's tail names the version that placed the bets.

Where candidates died · 158 markets judged

127not a live multi-choiceresolved, closed, or not multiple-choice
11blocked topic or too far outa category with no usable history, or closing past the cap
10shared bookanswers sharing one book belong to mc-other
6someone got there firstthe answers were traded before we arrived
2taken mid-decisionuntraded when we looked, traded by the time we acted
2blocked creatora creator whose markets do not resolve

The book · v89-twin

utcversionmarketbetresultwhy
09-22 16:40v89-twinOld School Runescape Summit/Roadmap Props :: Varlamore Achievement Diaries announcedNO 16open +1independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-22 16:40v89-twinOld School Runescape Summit/Roadmap Props :: New OSRS Leagues planned for 2027NO 16open -1independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-22 01:09v89-twinOpenAI Dev Day 2026 props :: OpenAI perpetuals increase in value by >2% the next 24 hoursNO 2open +1independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.399 for this type; open 0.50
09-22 01:09v89-twinOpenAI Dev Day 2026 props :: OpenAI publicly reveals the form factor or product name of iNO 2open +1independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.399 for this type; open 0.50
09-22 01:09v89-twinOpenAI Dev Day 2026 props :: OpenAI releases a Grok Bot competitorNO 2open +0independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.399 for this type; open 0.50
09-22 01:09v89-twinOpenAI Dev Day 2026 props :: OpenAI releases or publicly previews “Persistent Mode”NO 2open +0independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.399 for this type; open 0.50
09-21 19:20v89-twinRank the options! :: Answer 4NO 3open +0independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-21 19:20v89-twinRank the options! :: Answer 1NO 3open -0independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-21 19:20v89-twinRank the options! :: Answer 2NO 3open -0independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-21 19:20v89-twinRank the options! :: Answer 3NO 3open -1independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-21 04:46v89-twinwhich teams will qual for nationals from GA this year :: gsmst hsNO 3open +2independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-21 04:46v89-twinwhich teams will qual for nationals from GA this year :: ia hsNO 3open +2independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-21 04:46v89-twinwhich teams will qual for nationals from GA this year :: chatahoochee hsNO 3open +0independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-21 04:46v89-twinwhich teams will qual for nationals from GA this year :: fsa hsNO 3open -1independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-21 04:46v89-twinwhich teams will qual for nationals from GA this year :: walton hsNO 3open -1independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-21 04:46v89-twinwhich teams will qual for nationals from GA this year :: northview hsNO 3open +2independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-21 04:46v89-twinwhich teams will qual for nationals from GA this year :: brookwood hsNO 3open +1independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-20 06:48v89-twinWhat results will happen during Week 4 of the 2026 College Football Season? :: Michigan defeats IowaNO 0unfilledindependent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-20 06:48v89-twinWhat results will happen during Week 4 of the 2026 College Football Season? :: Notre Dame defeats PurdueNO 0unfilledindependent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-20 06:48v89-twinWhat results will happen during Week 4 of the 2026 College Football Season? :: Georgia State defeats Northern NO 0unfilledindependent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-20 06:48v89-twinWhat results will happen during Week 4 of the 2026 College Football Season? :: Florida State defeats Central ANO 0unfilledindependent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-20 06:48v89-twinWhat results will happen during Week 4 of the 2026 College Football Season? :: Hawaii defeats WyomingNO 0unfilledindependent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-20 06:48v89-twinWhat results will happen during Week 4 of the 2026 College Football Season? :: Georgia defeats OklahomaNO 0unfilledindependent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-20 06:48v89-twinWhat results will happen during Week 4 of the 2026 College Football Season? :: Ole Miss defeats FloridaNO 0unfilledindependent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-20 06:48v89-twinWhat results will happen during Week 4 of the 2026 College Football Season? :: Utah defeats Iowa StateNO 0unfilledindependent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-20 06:48v89-twinWhat results will happen during Week 4 of the 2026 College Football Season? :: Toledo defeats San Diego StateNO 0unfilledindependent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-20 06:48v89-twinWhat results will happen during Week 4 of the 2026 College Football Season? :: UTSA defeats Colorado StateNO 0unfilledindependent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-20 06:48v89-twinWhat results will happen during Week 4 of the 2026 College Football Season? :: UNLV defeats AkronNO 0unfilledindependent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-20 06:48v89-twinWhat results will happen during Week 4 of the 2026 College Football Season? :: Ball State defeats Kent StateNO 0unfilledindependent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-20 06:48v89-twinWhat results will happen during Week 4 of the 2026 College Football Season? :: Kentucky defeats South AlabamaNO 0unfilledindependent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-20 06:48v89-twinWhat results will happen during Week 4 of the 2026 College Football Season? :: Eastern Michigan defeats LindenNO 0unfilledindependent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-20 06:48v89-twinWhat results will happen during Week 4 of the 2026 College Football Season? :: UCLA defeats MarylandNO 0unfilledindependent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-20 06:48v89-twinWhat results will happen during Week 4 of the 2026 College Football Season? :: Texas Tech defeats Sam HoustonNO 0unfilledindependent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-20 06:48v89-twinWhat results will happen during Week 4 of the 2026 College Football Season? :: Louisiana defeats Wake ForestNO 0unfilledindependent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-20 06:48v89-twinWhat results will happen during Week 4 of the 2026 College Football Season? :: Colorado defeats BaylorNO 0unfilledindependent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-20 06:48v89-twinWhat results will happen during Week 4 of the 2026 College Football Season? :: Pittsburgh defeats BucknellNO 0unfilledindependent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-20 06:48v89-twinWhat results will happen during Week 4 of the 2026 College Football Season? :: Virginia Tech defeats Boston CoNO 0unfilledindependent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-20 06:48v89-twinWhat results will happen during Week 4 of the 2026 College Football Season? :: UAB defeats NavyNO 0unfilledindependent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-20 06:48v89-twinWhat results will happen during Week 4 of the 2026 College Football Season? :: Indiana defeats NorthwesternNO 0unfilledindependent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-20 06:48v89-twinWhat results will happen during Week 4 of the 2026 College Football Season? :: Clemson defeats CaliforniaNO 0unfilledindependent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-20 06:48v89-twinWhat results will happen during Week 4 of the 2026 College Football Season? :: Tennessee defeats TexasNO 0unfilledindependent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-20 06:48v89-twinWhat results will happen during Week 4 of the 2026 College Football Season? :: Ohio State defeats IllinoisNO 0unfilledindependent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-20 06:48v89-twinWhat results will happen during Week 4 of the 2026 College Football Season? :: Coastal Carolina defeats LibertNO 0unfilledindependent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-20 06:48v89-twinWhat results will happen during Week 4 of the 2026 College Football Season? :: Temple defeats ArmyNO 0unfilledindependent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-20 06:48v89-twinWhat results will happen during Week 4 of the 2026 College Football Season? :: Rutgers defeats HowardNO 0unfilledindependent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50

45 trades, 77 staked, realised +0, open +12 if held / +8 if sold, 28 unfilled.

45 answer-bets across 5 markets for 77 mana; realised +0 on 0 settled. Largest single market: 28 answers.
Traces are diagnostic and rotate; the trading journal is the book above. Built 2026-09-22 18:22Z.