When a market's answers must sum to one there is usually a
catch-all — Other, none of these, Someone else
— and it gets priced like a real candidate instead of the residue it
is. Above 0.20 that is worth fading: this module buys NO on
that single answer, aiming at about 0.12, and ignores every
other answer in the market.
A bet on Other also covers any answer
added later. So on a market where anyone can still add answers, Other
is not the leftover this module fades — it is the chance the winner
is not listed yet, and this module bets brand-new markets, when the list
is shortest. Those markets are declined and counted below; the published
edge never split on this and its sample is not in the repo, so the
population is unmeasured rather than known-bad.
The slice it fades
No catch-all faded yet.
Where candidates died · 163 markets judged
127not a live multi-choiceresolved, closed, or not multiple-choice
11blocked topic or too far outa category with no usable history, or closing past the cap
7answers do not share a bookindependent answers belong to mc-indep
6someone got there firstthe answers were traded before we arrived
4no catch-allthe market has no Other answer to fade
2list still openanyone can add answers, so Other is not leftover - it is 'the winner is not listed yet'
2Other priced lowthe catch-all opened under the floor where fading pays
2taken mid-decisionuntraded when we looked, traded by the time we acted
2blocked creatora creator whose markets do not resolve
The book · v89-twin
No trades in this book.
0 trades, 0 staked, realised +0, open +0 if held / +0 if sold.