The mirror of whale‑fade: a single bet that shoves a binary market down 0.15+ is on average overconfident, and this module buys 25 YES against it on the same reaction race. Measured +6.98/event in the 2026 era (n=753, CI [+2.97, +11.19]) on the resolution replay; its own book so the number stays visible.
No decisions traced by this version.
| utc | version | market | bet | result | why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-02 07:47 | v84 | sn2tt9lpOg | YES 0 | unfilled | down-fade (blind, verify after): single 200-mana NO bet pushed 0.60->0.11; market not in cache |
| 09-02 03:26 | v84 | Will Joby Aviation start operating any aircraft commercially before the end of 2026? | YES 18 | open -1 | down-fade: single 1800-mana NO bet pushed 0.42->0.15; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-02 03:00 | v84 | roon (@tszzl) leaves OpenAI before July 2027? | YES 18 | open +7 | down-fade: single 100-mana NO bet pushed 0.62->0.24; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
3 trades, 35 staked, realised +0, open +12 if held / +6 if sold, 1 unfilled.
Judge this module at resolution, like the replay that justified it; the race column says whether the entry price was still worth having. Traces are diagnostic and rotate; the trading journal is separate. Built 2026-09-22 18:12Z.