Someone drops a big YES bet and shoves a market upward. On average that is overconfidence rather than news, so this module buys the other side. It only counts as a whale above 50 mana and a 10% shove, it stakes 25 and holds at most 50 per market — so it turns almost everything down. This page is mostly a record of what it turned down.
No whale-sized bets seen yet. Every bet on the venue is checked; this fills when one is big enough to matter.
| market type | fades | staked | realised | open, if held | open, if sold | mana / fade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| binary | 7 | 90 | -45.0 (1 settled) | +36.5 | +35.8 | -1.22 |
| multiple choice, independent | off in this version | |||||
| multiple choice, one winner | off in this version | |||||
| utc | version | market | bet | result | why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-02 07:22 | v84 | Will Brett Smiley win the 2026 Democratic primary for Mayor of Providence? | NO 0 | unfilled | fade: single 188-mana YES bet pushed 0.38->0.49; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-02 06:48 | v84 | Will GPT 6 be released by September 15th? | NO 45 | settled -45 | fade: single 500-mana YES bet pushed 0.22->0.51; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-02 05:38 | v84 | Openai Astra publically available before September 7th 2026 | NO 0 | unfilled | fade: single 100-mana YES bet pushed 0.79->0.90; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-02 04:45 | v84 | Will Waymo One expand its SF Bay Area service area to Marin County by December 31, 2026? | NO 0 | unfilled | fade: single 2250-mana YES bet pushed 0.43->0.55; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-02 04:41 | v84 | Will GPT-6 be released before the end of October 2026? | NO 0 | unfilled | fade: single 75-mana YES bet pushed 0.50->0.77; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-02 04:23 | v84 | Will tobey maguire die in avengers doomsday? | NO 0 | unfilled | fade: single 200-mana YES bet pushed 0.44->0.54; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-02 03:55 | v84 | Will Usopp unlock conquerors Haki on Elbaf? | NO 45 | open +36 | fade: single 500-mana YES bet pushed 0.30->0.57; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
7 trades, 90 staked, realised -45, open +36 if held / +36 if sold, 5 unfilled.
No decisions traced by this version.
| utc | shove | move | whale | market | outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nothing above whale size yet. | |||||
Of 0 bets judged, 0 cleared every rule
and were faded for 90 mana; 0 were beaten to it, the move
taken by someone faster before the last rule could pass. The dashed leg on
each shove is the part of the move that was gone before this module could
act. The book above has every fade this version owns, with its era and
result; the log is traces, which rotate.
Traces are diagnostic and rotate; the trading journal is separate.
Built 2026-09-22 18:16Z.