mc‑indep

module 1.0 · v84 ← trader

A multiple-choice market lists its answers at about 0.50 each, and answers that resolve independently come in nearer 40% for ai, 36% for crypto, 38% for entertainment, 37% for geopolitics, 35% for other, 43% for personal, 39% for politics, 43% for sports, 41% for stocks (38% for anything unnamed). So this module buys NO across the answers of a brand-new market, up to 150 mana per market. The bet is per answer, which is exactly where the risk hides: a market's answers are often settled by one event on one day, and then a dozen small bets are one big bet wearing a dozen costumes.

Markets it bet, and how many answers each took

Which New York House Districts will the Democrats win in the 2026 midterms?26 answers · 85 mana · v84
New York's 1st Congressi0.50New York's 2nd Congressi0.50New York's 3rd Congressi0.50New York's 4th Congressi0.50New York's 5th Congressi0.50New York's 6th Congressi0.50New York's 7th Congressi0.50New York's 8th Congressi0.50New York's 9th Congressi0.50New York's 10th Congress0.50New York's 11th Congress0.50New York's 12th Congress0.50New York's 13th Congress0.50New York's 14th Congress0.50New York's 15th Congress0.50New York's 16th Congress0.50New York's 17th Congress0.50New York's 18th Congress0.50New York's 19th Congress0.50New York's 20th Congress0.50New York's 21st Congress0.50New York's 22nd Congress0.50New York's 23rd Congress0.50New York's 24th Congress0.50New York's 25th Congress0.50New York's 26th Congress0.50

A market marked in warning colour took six or more answers. Read those as a single position: the per-market cap limits the stake, not the number of ways one event can decide it. Each chip is one answer at the price it opened; the card's tail names the version that placed the bets.

Where candidates died · 0 markets judged

Nothing judged yet.

The book · v84

utcversionmarketbetresultwhy
09-02 07:58v84Which New York House Districts will the Democrats win in the 2026 midterms? :: New York's 26th Congressional DNO 3open -2independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-02 07:58v84Which New York House Districts will the Democrats win in the 2026 midterms? :: New York's 23rd Congressional DNO 3open +2independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-02 07:58v84Which New York House Districts will the Democrats win in the 2026 midterms? :: New York's 24th Congressional DNO 3open +2independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-02 07:58v84Which New York House Districts will the Democrats win in the 2026 midterms? :: New York's 25th Congressional DNO 3open -2independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-02 07:58v84Which New York House Districts will the Democrats win in the 2026 midterms? :: New York's 20th Congressional DNO 3open -2independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-02 07:58v84Which New York House Districts will the Democrats win in the 2026 midterms? :: New York's 21st Congressional DNO 3open +1independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-02 07:58v84Which New York House Districts will the Democrats win in the 2026 midterms? :: New York's 22nd Congressional DNO 3open -1independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-02 07:58v84Which New York House Districts will the Democrats win in the 2026 midterms? :: New York's 17th Congressional DNO 3open -0independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-02 07:58v84Which New York House Districts will the Democrats win in the 2026 midterms? :: New York's 18th Congressional DNO 3open -2independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-02 07:58v84Which New York House Districts will the Democrats win in the 2026 midterms? :: New York's 19th Congressional DNO 3open -1independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-02 07:58v84Which New York House Districts will the Democrats win in the 2026 midterms? :: New York's 13th Congressional DNO 3open -2independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-02 07:58v84Which New York House Districts will the Democrats win in the 2026 midterms? :: New York's 14th Congressional DNO 3open -2independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-02 07:58v84Which New York House Districts will the Democrats win in the 2026 midterms? :: New York's 15th Congressional DNO 3open -2independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-02 07:58v84Which New York House Districts will the Democrats win in the 2026 midterms? :: New York's 16th Congressional DNO 3open -2independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-02 07:57v84Which New York House Districts will the Democrats win in the 2026 midterms? :: New York's 10th Congressional DNO 3open -2independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-02 07:57v84Which New York House Districts will the Democrats win in the 2026 midterms? :: New York's 11th Congressional DNO 3open +2independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-02 07:57v84Which New York House Districts will the Democrats win in the 2026 midterms? :: New York's 12th Congressional DNO 3open -2independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-02 07:57v84Which New York House Districts will the Democrats win in the 2026 midterms? :: New York's 7th Congressional DiNO 3open -2independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-02 07:57v84Which New York House Districts will the Democrats win in the 2026 midterms? :: New York's 8th Congressional DiNO 3open -2independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-02 07:57v84Which New York House Districts will the Democrats win in the 2026 midterms? :: New York's 9th Congressional DiNO 3open -2independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-02 07:57v84Which New York House Districts will the Democrats win in the 2026 midterms? :: New York's 4th Congressional DiNO 3open -2independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-02 07:57v84Which New York House Districts will the Democrats win in the 2026 midterms? :: New York's 5th Congressional DiNO 3open -1independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-02 07:57v84Which New York House Districts will the Democrats win in the 2026 midterms? :: New York's 6th Congressional DiNO 3open -2independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-02 07:57v84Which New York House Districts will the Democrats win in the 2026 midterms? :: New York's 1st Congressional DiNO 2open +1independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-02 07:57v84Which New York House Districts will the Democrats win in the 2026 midterms? :: New York's 2nd Congressional DiNO 3open +2independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-02 07:57v84Which New York House Districts will the Democrats win in the 2026 midterms? :: New York's 3rd Congressional DiNO 3open -2independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50

26 trades, 85 staked, realised +0, open -22 if held / -25 if sold.

26 answer-bets across 1 markets for 85 mana; realised +0 on 0 settled. Largest single market: 26 answers.
Traces are diagnostic and rotate; the trading journal is the book above. Built 2026-09-22 18:12Z.