Every other module reads a number off the venue and applies a rule. This one asks gpt-5.6-luna what a question actually resolves at, without showing it the price, and bets only when the answer and the market disagree by 20% or more. Most of the time they agree, and agreement is not a trade — so most of this page is opinions the module formed and did not act on.
No market has been priced by the model yet. Every new binary market gets an estimate; this fills as they arrive.
Every market the model priced, with the argument it gave — including the ones it argued itself out of. A multi-choice market is priced one answer at a time and each answer is its own row, named after the question. On this module the reasoning is the strategy, so a decline without it is the one decline nobody can check.
| market | price | model | gap | outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nothing priced yet. | ||||
Nothing judged yet.
| utc | version | market | bet | result | why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-02 02:43 | v84 | Which Red Party Event will happen next in a five eyes country? :: Mark Carney out as Canadian PM | YES 0 | open -0 | model 0.28; edge +0.19; luna-medium price-blind says 0.28 vs answer 0.09 (edge +0.19 >= 0.1): Carney is likely to leave by 2032, but New Zealand’s scheduled November 2026 election and other Five Eyes Labour changes are more likely to produce the next qualifying event first. |
| 09-02 02:43 | v84 | Which Red Party Event will happen next in a five eyes country? :: Anthony Albanese out as Australian PM | YES 9 | open +2 | model 0.57; edge +0.37; luna-medium price-blind says 0.57 vs answer 0.20 (edge +0.37 >= 0.1): A Labour NZ government is plausible in 2026 but currently an underdog, while Australia’s 2027–28 election window gives Albanese a substantial chance of leaving before a later Labour-led NZ government forms. |
| 09-02 02:43 | v84 | Which Red Party Event will happen next in a five eyes country? :: Andy Burnham out as UK PM | YES 8 | open -1 | model 0.42; edge +0.33; luna-medium price-blind says 0.42 vs answer 0.09 (edge +0.33 >= 0.1): The long-run UK base rate is 18 PM changes across 81 years (0.22/year), implying roughly a 75% chance Burnham leaves by 2032, but the rules' unspecified competing events create ambiguity, the scheduled NZ election is 7 November 2026, current polling favors National, and the exact resolver is the official GOV.UK PM record (with NZ Governor-General swearing-in notices as the competing witness). |
| 09-02 02:43 | v84 | Which Red Party Event will happen next in a five eyes country? :: PM of New Zealand is a member of the Labour | YES 10 | open -1 | model 0.77; edge +0.29; luna-medium price-blind says 0.77 vs answer 0.48 (edge +0.29 >= 0.1): Base rate: Labour-led governments followed 5 of 10 MMP elections (1996–2023); the rules require an actual Governor-General swearing-in, with the scheduled 7-Nov-2026 election and likely 2029 election as key events, while current polling/market proxies put Labour’s 2026 governing chance near 55% but use different resolution rules, so I estimate a 77% chance by 2032, resolved by the Governor-General’s official appointment announcement (https://gg.govt.nz/governor-general/blog/2023/11/appointment-new-ministry; https://elections.nz/media-and-news/2026/key-dates-for-2026-general-election). |
4 trades, 28 staked, realised +0, open +13 if held / -0 if sold.
In the traces on hand the model priced 0
answers across 0 markets and the module acted on
0 of them (0%). The journal holds
4 trades for 28 mana.
An estimate the model declines to give is treated as no opinion and never
as a cheap one.
Traces are diagnostic and rotate; the trading journal is the book above.
Built 2026-09-22 18:05Z.