A market that is still a heavy favourite with hours left has very little time left to be wrong. This module works the last 24 hours of a market's life and takes the side the clock favours: buy YES at 0.90–0.97, buy NO at 0.03–0.15. Nothing in the middle, and nothing whose price is just an untouched ante.
Time runs toward the close on the right-hand end, because that is the direction opportunity moves here: a market enters this module's world by running out of time, not by changing price. Dots outside the two lanes were seen and left alone. 4 trades from the book at their price and hours-to-close when placed, ringed.
No decisions traced by this version.
| utc | version | market | bet | result | why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-02 07:32 | v84 | Will Dylan Matthew beat Community Prediction (Metaculus Summer Cup) | NO 25 | settled +1 | longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95% |
| 09-02 05:02 | v84 | Will the percentage of wikipedia users who donate at least one time reach 4% in the next 3 years (2026)? | NO 25 | open +3 | longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95% |
| 09-02 02:01 | v84 | WPlace Colors vs Void: Which side will win? | NO 25 | settled +1 | longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95% |
| 09-02 02:01 | v84 | Will Julian Alvarez be sold to Barcelona by the end of the summer transfer window? | NO 25 | settled +1 | longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95% |
4 trades, 100 staked, realised +3, open +3 if held / +3 if sold.
4 collected for 100 mana, of which
0 on the favourite side.
The band edges matter more than the
stake: this module is buying near-certainty, so a single wrong one costs
several right ones.
Traces are diagnostic and rotate; the trading journal is separate.
Built 2026-09-22 18:12Z.